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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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View attachment 749471

All futures except for Dow in the red.
TSLA a big fat green.
I can virtually see you all smiling with an "I told you so" in your eyes.
Restraining yourselves to no let it come out of your mouth.
Congrats everybody here, even if it's just premarket.
This will work out just fine.
That's not futures you showed there, but yesterday's close, futures are green:

1640773044962.png
 
How many people here have FSD Beta? I just got it three days ago and my experience has been bad. For some reason it doesn't work anything like on the FSD videos on YouTube, maybe is because I live South Carolina but I had two instances that I felt like the car was going to crash and I had to intervene aggressively.

I am afraid FSD videos shared are often cherry-picked and not representative of the general experience of the testers.
 
How many people here have FSD Beta? I just got it three days ago and my experience has been bad. For some reason it doesn't work anything like on the FSD videos on YouTube, maybe is because I live South Carolina but I had two instances that I felt like the car was going to crash and I had to intervene aggressively.
Or maybe you are new and the car need to learn the errors and on next updates they correct what's wrong with it other had 2-3 updates since they received the first beta I think it's the difference from you.
 
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IMHO, neither "Financial Planners", nor Real Estate agents are your friends; they have their own best interests in mind, not yours.

I mentioned, to both my venerable and trustworthy long-time accountant and the kindly fellow who runs the local office of the brokerage associated with the local credit union I have an account with, that I hoped they weren't giving folks bad advice that they should "diversify". Neither one of them said anything in reply, they just got really quiet all of a sudden...

I'm posting this as I pat myself on the back for NEVER diversifying, though I have made lots of other relatively small but quite costly mistakes...
I agree with you that financial planners et. al. prioritize their interests above yours. But I don't think it follows that the all-in approach is universally better. In retrospect, of course that approach has worked best for us TSLA investors - hindsight's always 20/20. But I don't think it's wrong to consider that any force majeure event could, for example, take Elon out of the picture, would impact those all-in people more than those who weren't. How about we agree not to fault those who choose a different risk profile by diversifying.
 
Yep, the only thing baked into the current SP for general wall street is Austin and Germany, not 4680s though and maybe Semi, but I highly doubt even Tesla energy is seen as additive.

More massive crow eating coming soon!

I don't think Shanghai expansion is baked in either...

I don’t think they realize either that the three largest car factories in the world will be Austin, Berlin, and Shanghai. (Current record holder is Hyundai plant in SK at 1.5m/y) and they will probably make 5m+ cars per year between the three of them.
 
I agree with you that financial planners et. al. prioritize their interests above yours. But I don't think it follows that the all-in approach is universally better. In retrospect, of course that approach has worked best for us TSLA investors - hindsight's always 20/20. But I don't think it's wrong to consider that any force majeure event could, for example, take Elon out of the picture, would impact those all-in people more than those who weren't. How about we agree not to fault those who choose a different risk profile by diversifying.
Most of us who have been around a while do diversify. That has nothing to do with dealing with the licensed community, [in the US, CFA, FCA, Series 3, 6, 7 or RIA]. Nothing much about any of those licenses actually has anything to do with sound judgement. Anybody who's a decent test-taker can endure most or all of those two and three hours exams and pass them all. They are no more rigorous than a typical standardized test for anything else. Memorization and endurance are the critical skills. Just as a hedge fund typically does not hedge, these people do not typically understand what diversification is.

Diversification only succeeds with assiduous attention to high quality.
TSLA, for example, has enough risks to richly deserve the exceedingly focussed attention to risks that happens in this Forum and a few other places. Bizarrely, FUD also tends to be very precise, just not very accurate. Diversification demands precise and accurate analysis.

Personally I would never put my net worth in a single asset. I try to keep it to only assets I know and understand well enough to know when to sell.
I also try hard to minimize transaction costs. If transaction costs are high, you can be assured that you'll lose sometime.
 
I agree with you that financial planners et. al. prioritize their interests above yours. But I don't think it follows that the all-in approach is universally better. In retrospect, of course that approach has worked best for us TSLA investors - hindsight's always 20/20. But I don't think it's wrong to consider that any force majeure event could, for example, take Elon out of the picture, would impact those all-in people more than those who weren't. How about we agree not to fault those who choose a different risk profile by diversifying.
Yes, OK...

And, I misspoke, in that TSLA is arguably diversified into insurance, autos, robotics, software, etc...

Most of us who have been around a while do diversify. That has nothing to do with dealing with the licensed community, [in the US, CFA, FCA, Series 3, 6, 7 or RIA]. Nothing much about any of those licenses actually has anything to do with sound judgement. Anybody who's a decent test-taker can endure most or all of those two and three hours exams and pass them all. They are no more rigorous than a typical standardized test for anything else. Memorization and endurance are the critical skills. Just as a hedge fund typically does not hedge, these people do not typically understand what diversification is.

Diversification only succeeds with assiduous attention to high quality.
TSLA, for example, has enough risks to richly deserve the exceedingly focussed attention to risks that happens in this Forum and a few other places. Bizarrely, FUD also tends to be very precise, just not very accurate. Diversification demands precise and accurate analysis.

Personally I would never put my net worth in a single asset. I try to keep it to only assets I know and understand well enough to know when to sell.
I also try hard to minimize transaction costs. If transaction costs are high, you can be assured that you'll lose sometime.
I bought a book on investing years ago, got bored and tossed it aside - but only after reading that I should "invest in what you know", and for me, that's always been just Tesla, so that's another reason I only own TSLA.

It comes down to my personal reckoning of calculated risk that I hold TSLA only, and that I could afford to lose it all and still get by OK for what's left of my lifetime... That, plus the fact that the diviserfication lectures from the licensed "professionals" sounds so boilerplate like a mindless religious tome.
 
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Most of us who have been around a while do diversify. That has nothing to do with dealing with the licensed community, [in the US, CFA, FCA, Series 3, 6, 7 or RIA]. Nothing much about any of those licenses actually has anything to do with sound judgement. Anybody who's a decent test-taker can endure most or all of those two and three hours exams and pass them all. They are no more rigorous than a typical standardized test for anything else. Memorization and endurance are the critical skills. Just as a hedge fund typically does not hedge, these people do not typically understand what diversification is.

Diversification only succeeds with assiduous attention to high quality.
TSLA, for example, has enough risks to richly deserve the exceedingly focussed attention to risks that happens in this Forum and a few other places. Bizarrely, FUD also tends to be very precise, just not very accurate. Diversification demands precise and accurate analysis.

Personally I would never put my net worth in a single asset. I try to keep it to only assets I know and understand well enough to know when to sell.
I also try hard to minimize transaction costs. If transaction costs are high, you can be assured that you'll lose sometime.

You only need a 70% to pass and get your Series 7, and the average a few years ago was that it was taken 3 times with a passing grade in the 70s.
 
Note:
first graph
SP was ~$1,150 start of selling ~15 million shares, and acquisition of ~23 million shares
SP is ~$1,100, after 7 weeks, barely affected by ~7.5 weeks of sales (~ -4.5%)
folks had a quite tasty buying opportunity (buy what was ~$1,150 for $~900 momentarily)
(hopefully this is a prelude to the next 7 years when ~101 million shares are acquired and a portion sold for taxes and acquisition costs, with little disruption to the HODL'ers)
(link below to SEC form)
(Elon seemed to _net_ gain between 6-8.5 million shares from a cursory first glance)
2nd graph
SP was under $600 6 months ago, linear regression line is nice and trending up, presently ~$1,100,
(this is quite delightful fun)
1640786316637.png
 
Obviously TSLA is poised for big moves come P and D and earnings, but let us not forget everyone already knew the Elon was almost done selling, and that the final announcement begs for a 'sell the news' phenomenon. I am not predicting any real decline, but I would be equally surprised to see a huge move up before confirmation of Tesla's 'yet another record' quarter.
 
I felt pretty stupid this morning buying more and more chairs today. I had bought many around 1200 then watched the account shrink as I rode them all down in slow mo. It was deja vu, but a bunch of things clicked.

The All-in was something I’d never done. I thought others who did this where reckless. I always wanted a buffer and justified it as necessary for buying the dip.

But the dips came, I bought a few, but always kept some close, along with some BTC and some ARKK as if to diversify. :rolleyes: My plan up until yesterday was to use the cash to pay off debt next Jan, and would likely have sold even further.

Some credit goes to Radish (something or other) for posting that total exit this week. That post, followed by silence, hit me funny. Everyone replying, it just seemed planned and I kept reading it over and over. I don’t know this person and some defended the move respectfully, but being somewhat of a contrarian investor I used that info to my benefit and wanted to prove I was right. I was on a mission to do the opposite, and then the lightbulb came on!

I don’t know how many times I’ve read here about how much money was missed out on, all because someone bought a Model S instead of investing in TSLA a decade ago.

Then, get this, sailing this week on a sunset cruise, I met a banker. Who was his client? None other than Tesla Solar! He wrote the solar loans and I got a nice dose of reality. He recommended that a typical solar loan under 6% interest should not be paid early. (He also shared how the product was only 1/3 the total cost as an aside.) His info was a green light for me to keep all my loans, mainly because of inflation. I guess I’m not done with banks after all.

I’ll spare the details on all the things I’ve learned here over the years, and the long list of folks who taught me to see the FUD from the facts, but my investment plan took on a new vector today.

I didn’t quite make it to all in, but pretty close and the week isn’t over yet. I have no idea if this was the best move, nothing is certain with TSLA month to month, but the trend line continues to soar overall. That’s why I HODL.

My one call option will likely depart soon, maybe I get a return, maybe not. I have trouble using the very instrument that Elon opposes while still talking the talk.

I can’t thank Elon and the teams enough for their hard word and solid drive and focus. We are changing the world and investing in the company helps us all do better so he keeps them incentivized. It’s a completely connect ecosystem.

As they say, if you don’t stand for something, then you don’t stand a chance (or stand for no reason, or you’re just sitting… something like that). Now let’s light this thing already!

Cheers!
I’m not convinced you’ve overcome your gentics, but I remain hopeful. 😉