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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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How can you not be the CEO and janitor of a one person organization?
There are so many CEOs, COOs, CIO, CFOs…”CxOs” riddling my various alumni directories, magazines, newsletters and so forth that long, long ago I changed my profiles in all of them to read Chief Toilet Scrubber of {my holding company}. And when one of them challenged me as to whether I was serious or not I came down on him like an 8-ton Gigapress and told him in zero uncertain terms just how serious I was.
 
What’s the consensus for q4 delivery now? Factset no is pretty high:
FactSet consensus figures are for 261,400 Model 3 and Y vehicles and 15,500 Model S and X vehicles. That totals 276,900 vehicles. In Q3, Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles in the quarter, beating estimates for 232,000.

@Troy even estimates 287k and quotes 265k for analyst consensus - his final update comes tomorrow:

Rumors from China that production there has increased even more support those high numbers.
 

Tesla, GM and Ford Price Targets Raised by Citi. General Motors Is the Top Pick.​

-Barron’s

Trends in the auto industry all point toward a strong fourth quarter, Citigroup said, prompting analyst Itay Michaeli to raise his price targets on shares of Tesla , Ford Motor and General Motors .

Michaeli’s new price target for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) is $262, up from $236.

😬

Itay Michaeli​

Citigroup
Wall Street Analyst

Ranked #7,660 out of 7,761 Analysts on TipRanks (#15,815 out of 15,964 overall experts)
 
My best production tracking is this, though I could be off by a few as getting hold of accurate & reliable early numbers is tricksy:
View attachment 749983
My delivered sales numbers are slightly lower:
View attachment 749984
The 2m point fell during a quarter and didn't give any significant new info imho.

Why are reliable numbers hard? Those should be in the quarterly update letters, no?
 
Yup they did and it has some material impacts for Tesla's earnings once they start seeing more cars come out of warranty. If I remember correctly, the adjustment the warranty reserves for production going forward, but they can't adjustment the warranty reserves for cars already delivered.

Up until now, the numbers of cars coming out of warranty has been very small, especially when they're ramping production at the same time. As we get into 2022 and 2023 where a much more significant amount of cars will be coming out of warranty because of the ramp of the Model 3 in 2019-2020, the readjustment of warranty reserves will have a bigger impact on earnings.
It would seem imprudent to reduce unit warranty reserves when you are embarking on a radical new chassis system, utilizing a structural battery pack and front and rear castings...I'd want to keep a very close eye on performance for a few years before I was confident nothing was coming to bite me.
 
Why are reliable numbers hard? Those should be in the quarterly update letters, no?
Roadster 1 quarterly production and delivery numbers in the period 2008-2012 are surprisingly problematic. If you have any of these sequences I'd be more than happy to compare with you.
 
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Haven't plowed through the thread this morning, but just wanted to add I had the issue with the wiring harness to the backup camera issue for several months, finally got around to setting an appointment up a month ago and a Mobile Service tech fixed it in less than an hour.

It was a pain in the ass as Model 3s are hard to see out the back of, but I just went back to my moving truck driver days and used the mirrors. Yes I know I'm an outlier. I expect this will cost them several mil to fix, figure probably a lot less than an Elon tweet! :D

Hope they give me some credit for supercharging for paying for it out of pocket......
 
Will this have any effect on the share price? It is a bit old.
Starlink satellite forces Chinese space station to evasive maneuvers (July and October 2021). Millions of Chinese call for boycotting Tesla. China accusing the USA of violating international space treaties.

(in German)
A Chinese antisatellite test in 2007 created a debris cloud that extended "... from less than 125 miles (200 kilometers) to more than 2,292 miles (3,850 kilometers), encompassing all of low Earth orbit" with the number of debris pieces larger than 4" ranging above 10,000.

Despite all the great aspects of the Chinese people and culture, the government adopts the Veruca Salt approach at times...
 
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Made a mobile service fix for the Model S frunk latch recall at 5 AM today. If the tech spends more than 5 minutes in my driveway on this nothing of a problem, it will be because we were chatting about our favorite company. Could have driven to a service center today to have it checked, but opted for mobile service next month.

Major FUD in the media over these two recalls is to be expected, as anything to put Tesla down is fair game by them and SOP.

And today marks my MS five year birthday! Still an amazing car. Now if I can only get the cameras updated to actually get and use the FSD I paid for five years ago, I'd be even happier. Content to wait, but it is annoying non the less.

Time to go out and try the holiday update I just received earlier today. Guess I can consider it a New Years update.
 
If I recall, a couple of quarters ago Tesla already made an adjustment to their warranty reserves so they could recognize a larger portion of warranty reserves as income. For years Montana Skeptic has been harping on Tesla's "unrealistic" warranty reserves and how this was going to come back to bite them. He said it was fraudulent and Tesla knew there wasn't enough in the reserves for all the issues they were going to have to deal with.

But Tesla looked at the data which showed they had been overly conservative and had been reserving too much in warranty reserves and adjusted it, dropping more earnings to the bottom line. Pretty sure Montana Skeptic just doubled down and claimed Tesla was increasing the level of fraud! :rolleyes:

In any case, the recent wiring harness business doesn't amount to a hill of beans - most of the warranty reserves are to address the possibility of large scale battery recalls like the Bolt is experiencing.
Warranty Week and direct examination of Tesla reserving makes it clear that Tesla was forced to establish high reserves because of lack of history upon which to judge. GAAP treatment by auditors is exceedingly conservative in that respect. Tesla has consistently over-reserved. For the idiots who claim otherwise...I suggest actually reading the financial stamens and comparing that with actual warranty expense. By far the highest savings category for Tesla, totally ignored by almost every analyst of warranties, is that Tesla can do OTA warranty fixes routinely, and can identify individual vehicles that are subject to repair and the specific requirements. That saves, by my calculations, roughly 70% of recall expense. Much can also be done by mobile service which also saves, but I haven't the data to quantify that one.

I will not present the data. Anybody who wants to do the work can validate my findings. this is imprecise because much must be inferred for various disclosures.
 
There are so many CEOs, COOs, CIO, CFOs…”CxOs” riddling my various alumni directories, magazines, newsletters and so forth that long, long ago I changed my profiles in all of them to read Chief Toilet Scrubber of {my holding company}. And when one of them challenged me as to whether I was serious or not I came down on him like an 8-ton Gigapress and told him in zero uncertain terms just how serious I was.
I am a CPA (Cleaning, Pressing and Alterations):)
 
Lol, get's close to 1,100 and the the capping begins on cue.

Btw, those China Dec numbers are going to be out before the market opens. I expect Wall St to completely ignore the numbers regardless of what they are and for the stock to be capped up 1,100. Could be great buying opportunity, especially if the numbers are extremely good. I might be rather active tomorrow in my Fidelity account.

 
Regarding the TSLA share price...

wait just wait.gif.........I hate waiting.gif