Rip at supply issues with Rivian. It took Tesla workers about 2 hrs to make as many Rivians in a quarter and a half. Maybe Tesla can ship them a hour worth of parts so they can hit 1200 by year end.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I'm surprised there has been zero discussion of margins!
My rough guess is Tesla price increases have been passed 100% to the consumer.
I bet demand was inelastic so therefore, I bet previous margin levels were maintained.
It would be madness though if that actually grew.
My rough guess is Tesla price increases have been passed 100% to the consumer.
I bet demand was inelastic so therefore, I bet previous margin levels were maintained.
It would be madness though if that actually grew.
LiveLong&Profit
Member
Re. Shanghai:
Above run rate is without the new battery factory just now being erected (see WUWA video a few post back).
Also without the around 3-4 times larger area where the parking lot/staging area for transport currently is.
This is scheduled to become yet another factory building soon.
(I guess they will move the parking/staging to the place just adjacent where all the earth piles are located)
My ARK vs Tesla holdings are minuscule but still annoying to take the L for no good reason.
HOOD, TDOC, all that shat is still going to be cheap in Feb after Tesla Q4 P/D.
I bought her strategy for the first 5 sells, but not the subsequent 20.
I still remember the early videos of Shanghai when it was a wet muddy field. And that was just three years ago!
In July here was my estimates post:
Here's a little weekend napkin math for your consumption. I set three scenarios for vehicle production and came up with some estimates of possible share prices by year end using a price/sales multiple.
Bear Case: simply assumes zero production growth through Q4
Base Case: carries through Q2 to Q1 production growth of 14% through Q4
Bull Case: assumes 15% growth in Q3 and 30% growth in Q4. Banks on rapid S/X re-ramp and additional model Y line in Shanghai
View attachment 680941
Total vehicles produced
Bear Case: 798k
Base Case: 888k
Bull Case: 930k
View attachment 680942
Big assumption to arrive at revenue numbers is 57,220 rev multiplier. I used Q1 total revenue (10.3b) divided by vehicle production (180k). Quick and dirty.
Total revenue
Bear Case: $45B
Base Case: $50B
Bull Case: $53B
View attachment 680946
I used a price/sales range of 18, 20, and 30. About 18 p/s ratio was the low point we hit in April. I like a p/s ratio of 20 for Tesla long term. Lastly a p/s ratio of 30 was about the peak we hit at the beginning of the year.
Estimated end of year share price range
Bear Case: $853-$1422
Base Case: $950-$1583
Bull Case: $995-$1659
Lastly below is the corresponding market cap estimates
View attachment 680953
*Best taken with a grain of salt
Base case I expected 88k produced with 267k produced in q4. Baseline for year end share price was $1,055
Edit: the price to sales ratio ranged from about 18 to 30 in 2021
The Accountant
Active Member
Krugerrand
Meow
I still remember the Potemkin Village remarks. It annoys my sense of fairness that people can spout off at the mouth, but never seem to feel any shame and rarely have consequences of any merit for such venomous intentioned words.
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
What a tease! @The Accountant I see this alert and I am trying to refresh as fast as possible....
....to only get a picture of a muddy field
....to only get a picture of a muddy field
LightngMcQueen
Aspirationally Rational
Did you put Sell Limit order on them or waiting what will happen ?
I bought Jan 7 $1100 Calls for $22 on Friday, I had $42 Sell limit on them, which I just updated to 84.20
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
No sell limit....that is why they are YOLO's.
Let them ride....wild week ahead for sure.
But TBH my YOLO options track record is.....um...spotty at best.
That was the quickest recession in history according to Elon
Sudre
Active Member
Monday first thing news on CNBS , "NTSHA recalls all Tesla S & X because the puddle light on the door handle can burn out leading to a serious safety issue when the person steps on unseen ice What will Tesla do about all the 3 & Y which do not have lights to illuminate the entrees?.".
Stock tanks 10%.
lafrisbee
Active Member
HEY! I can do that kind of posting...stay inside your lines! get to work.
LiveLong&Profit
Member
OK - got it.
But still - what is to stop Ford or other car companies from simply raise the price of the cars the sell to the dealers?
I mean, they can clearly see that the demand is there in spades when people are willing to pay huge mark-ups.
I understand that the dealers are making hay - the are profit-driven after all.
What I don't get is why traditional auto is not just raising their prices for EVs.
If they did, the dealers could still do a mark-up, but a smaller one. Legacy auto companies like Ford would then make more money - and thus have more money for all the investments they need for scaling EV production.
What’s the general consensus on Germany going into production. Re, political barriers etc.
ZachF
Active Member
IMHO, we could be looking at $19b in revenue and $3b in profit for Q4.
Tesla lies. They said 50% growth YoY going forward. Buncha liars!
In all seriousness though, they are now at 1.2M annual run rate. Shanghai has target production of 1M units (don’t know by when). Fremont runs at 600K? Then add in Berlin and Austin, which could each make 150K conservatively this year. So, I mean we are looking at a low end estimate of 1.5M units, but could be upwards of 2M assuming no supply chain issues.
my mid-road 2022 estimate = 1.7m
fremont - 600k
shanghai - 800k^
brandenburg - 150k*
austin -150k*
*shanghai did about 150k it’s first year
^shanghai potentially 900k in 2022
———-
fremont already has 600k capacity (from q3 deck):
…but the s&x only did <25k in 2021. that will obv change. and from the q3 call, zach mentioned fremont did 430 in trailing 12 months, and they target to increase that 50%, or 645k.
fremont and shaghai expansion…
from q3 transcript:
Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
TSLA earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2021.
www.fool.com
Martin Viecha
Thank you very much. The next question from a retail shareholder is, what is Tesla's goal for vehicle production capacity for the four current factories, Fremont, Shanghai, Austin, and Berlin, by 2024?
Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Thanks, Martin. You know, our goal as a company here is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year. And so you can extrapolate that out.
You know, there may be some periods of time in which we're well ahead of that. There could be some periods of time, despite best efforts, where we're slightly lower than that. But that remains the long-term goal of the company. In Fremont, you know, we're continuing to push the boundaries of what's possible there.
Over the last 12 months, we've done about 430,000 cars of production. And based upon everything that we know in the factory, where the bottlenecks are, what the potential is, we're targeting to increase that another 50%. I think that will be a difficult goal but that's the goal that the internal team has, and they're going to continue to push on that. As we look toward Shanghai, we're continuing to push the boundaries there and we continue to ramp production there as well, so most recently the ramp-up of the Model Y, which was our biggest contributor of volume in Q3.
We'll continue to ramp that factory. And, you know, our plans there with time are to keep growing the capacity in that factory. Austin and Berlin are interesting factories because our first iterations of capacity there are on Model Y, but we've intentionally set these factories in locations in which they have a quite significant amount of land and ability to expand. And so we'll take Model Y at these factories.
You know, we're trying to get to 5,000 cars a week as soon as we can. And then we'll continue to push beyond that, potentially even getting to 10,000 cars per week at those factories. And then we'll add Cybertruck here in Austin and continue to grow from there. So, you know, our goal is to get to millions of cars per year over the next couple of years and then ultimately, in the long term, be able to achieve 20 million cars per year.
We're going to grow as quickly as is feasibly possible with an eye toward a 50% annual growth rate.
———-
to your follow up question, tesla did 936,172 deliveries 2021
stephensons chart for historical sales:
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