Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

...combined!

Dan

More whistle.

With the stock price increasing, I may buy the New York Jets and an island a piece of land in New York City !
The first thing I do is move the Jets back to New York - maybe buy that Island borough across the river (not Brooklyn, not the Bronx not Queens - one of the other two).

This being TSLA... It hasn't increased yet...

Don't count your cowbells before they...

 

[Zaxxon]

If you buy a ring of water with some rock in the middle: is that acceptable discussion material?

For 2022, I think only "isn't land" purchase discussion is acceptable. Island is so 2021.

This sure will be an interesting week.

 

[capster]

If you buy a ring of water with some rock in the middle: is that acceptable discussion material?

You‘re asking "Do we go down, down, down in a ring of water, ring of water?" Best not to ask, I suppose.

 

[Pezpunk]

Let’s take a moment to appreciate:

1. $3B for the most part ignores energy , which could contribute 50% to earnings in future years.

"energy will contribute 50% of earnings in the future" is the "competition is coming" of Tesla bulls. We've been saying that for a decade, but it's always apparently 2 years away.

 

[Todd Burch]

"energy will contribute 50% of earnings in the future" is the "competition is coming" of Tesla bulls. We've been saying that for a decade, but it's always apparently 2 years away.

Only because batteries have been a constraint. 4680 should help with that as they ramp.

 

[Pezpunk]

Only because batteries have been a constraint. 4680 should help with that as they ramp.

I mean yeah batteries are the constraint, and with two new gigafactories coming online, i don't see how they won't continue to be the constraint. As long as shoving them in cars is a more profitable return per watt than using them as storage, Energy will never be 50% of revenue.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

"energy will contribute 50% of earnings in the future" is the "competition is coming" of Tesla bulls. We've been saying that for a decade, but it's always apparently 2 years away.

Elon said he thinks energy will be as big as cars some day

 

[Knightshade]

Elon said he thinks energy will be as big as cars some day

When even Elon won't throw an actual speculative target date out for a goal you can be pretty sure it's not anytime soon though.

 

[ninpb]

Sorry guys and gals. Gordon gonna rain on our parade tomorrow with the Shanghai lease agreement.

 

[AudubonB]

Can we raise money to buy Lora a box of tequila? She can open a bottle at each quarter end

Yes, but it seems to me she needs to open a bottle at each end each quarter..

 

[Cal1]

So how do I get on this list? I’d prefer Bourbon but I’ll take Tequila.

 

[bkp_duke]

I mean yeah batteries are the constraint, and with two new gigafactories coming online, i don't see how they won't continue to be the constraint. As long as shoving them in cars is a more profitable return per watt than using them as storage, Energy will never be 50% of revenue.

LFP patents in the USA expire April 2022. That completely changes the game for energy storage.

 

[Mr X]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477775713172402176

Can't wait for tomorrow

 

[AudubonB]

tl;dr: The makers’ and dealers‘ interests are not aligned.

The legacy automakers need to build EV market share to survive, so they are trying to keep prices at least somewhat affordable. The dealers want to delay the ascendancy of EV’s for as long as possible, so they jack prices up out of reach.

Legacy automakers are prevented from going around dealerships by law in many places. Hence, the automakers are trying to ‘push a rope’ in this case and that puts them in an unenviable and could-well-be-fatal position.

Well, we've already seen Ford's position paper regarding the dealer markups ("Customer - get your final price IN WRITING from your dealer before you sign anything. If they won't do that, then find another dealer"), which I think is a good first step. But I also think that GM, Ford &c can play a little more hardball with their dealers: "We cannot by law tell you what price to charge, but if you do not sell X% of your total sales # (not $ number) as EVs then we will diminish the # of ICEs you get allotted", or some such.

 

[Unpilot]

Futures starting off green.

 

[PeterJA]

So how do I get on this list? I’d prefer Bourbon but I’ll take Tequila.

I'd prefer a can of whoopass on the naked shorts.

 

[StealthP3D]

So, asuming The Accountant is mostly correct, having the operating income a) increase 50% quarter over quarter and b) also just the mere fact of having 18% operating income while being a manufacturing company...

Who does either? And ... who achieves both?

Any previous examples of manufacturing companies doing that ?

Are we just bulls and fans - or is this really as unique as it seems ?

You're right! The accountant must be wrong as no manufacturer of large complex items could increase at such a rate. Impossible. If you don't believe me, just ask the expert, I think he goes by the name Toilet Boy.

/s

On a serious note, the first thing that stood out to me when @The Accountant updated his projections was the large increase in revenues with the relatively small increase in margins. Then I noticed his note that said margins might be conservative. Yup, I think that's a probably truer than TSLAQ will like or appreciate.

 

[Terminator857]

Tesla quarterly deliveries chart to the naysayers:

Image credit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/ruiybu

 

[st_lopes]

P&L on the left compares Q4 2021 to Q4 2020
P&L on the right compares Q4 2021 to Q3 2021.
- Non-GAAP Earnings more than tripled vs last year ($3B in Q4 2021 vs $0.9B in Q4 2020)
- Tesla grew Non-GAAP Earnings by almost $1B in a mere 3 months from Q3 2021 ($2B) to Q4 2021 ($3B)
btw: I consider my estimates conservative as margins can come in higher than what I have.

View attachment 751232

My full P&Ls and analysis starts here:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

The S/X refresh gave us a unique insight in Q1/Q2 into the strength of Tesla's main business which is the 3/Y and exactly how profitable they are and can be in the future......BUT......S/X back at full production of 25k/quarter with these new price levels will have an outsized impact on earnings...

teslamotorsclub.com

Q4 represented a 28% increase in unit values QoQ. That from the SAME asset base and factory costs as prior quarter. Q3 saw gross auto margins of 30.5%. I would not be shocked to see a mid 30s gross margin print this quarter. All that to say, you’re being very conservative

And let’s not forget our trust deferred tax asset. This is about to get VERY interesting.

 

[Pezpunk]

Q4 represented a 28% increase in unit values QoQ. That from the SAME asset base and factory costs as prior quarter. Q3 saw gross auto margins of 30.5%. I would not be shocked to see a mid 30s gross margin print this quarter. All that to say, you’re being very conservative

And let’s not forget our trust deferred tax asset. This is about to get VERY interesting.

I thought on the Q3 call, Zach said margins would go down in upcoming quarters due to ramp up costs of Model S/X refresh, and Austin/Berlin ramp ups. (even though long-term profitability is obviously on an upward trend, ramp-ups are the most expensive part of the process)