Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Stop it! I'm already overexcited enough!

Don't get too excited. The run-up in early Jan 2021 was almost exclusively a short covering rally. There were over 100M shares sold short at the closing cross on Fri, Dec 18, 2020 and all those shares had to be delivered by mid-January or else they would generate FTD reports in massive numbers. The run-up in price was easily predicably in advance given the short interest numbers as of Dec 31, 2020 (and released in mid-Jan '21).

Now there may be a run up in the SP due to Q4 2021 P&D, but it will be for a different reason than Jan '20, which was triggered by the S&P 500 addtion.

 

[Gigapress]

The current stock price factors in future growth so when the market begins to detect the end game the price will stabilize.

I struggle currently to see the price getting over $4,000 (ignoring inflation adjustment), which to be fair would make it the most valuable company on the planet by a massive margin.

Happy for future developments to prove me wrong though

Tesla already is the most valuable company on the planet by a massive margin, but the inhabitants of the planet are mostly too clueless to understand this yet.

What Tesla has guided for already implies a $4,000ish valuation just on selling cars, trucks and vans.

By 2030 this could happen (2022 dollars, actual would have inflation):
20 million annual production
$15 k gross profit per car on just the hardware and simple software upgrades, no FSD
$30 B operating expenditures
20% tax
= $200-250 B annual earnings, enough to justify $4,000 share price at about 20x P/E if no further growth expected.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Bloomberg consensus deliveries will probably see some change. That 2023 number looks feasible for 2022.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477806325178454018

It's funny, I should have taken a screenshot... this article had the FactSet number quoted when it first got published, but now after the release they have removed any reference to that.

 

[MartinAustin]

If I am doing this right... TSLA is trading at €962.59 in Frankfurt, which at €0.88 per dollar is $1093.75 or up 3.5%.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Am I the only one missing - at the very least - a big "Thank you!" to Mary Barra in this Tweet?!

 

[Artful Dodger]

TL.0 (Tesla, Inc.) trading at the equivalent of $1,095 USD with strong volume at 09:00 C.E.T. Tradegate in Berlin:

Now < 1 hr until the NASDAQ pre-Market opens in New York (page live at 02:15 ET).

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

The current stock price factors in DISCOUNTS future growth...

FTFY.

HEAVILY discounted...

Cheers!

 

[NicoV]

I don’t get it why this thread is full of videos of people explaining the prospects of TSLA in exchange for some measly youtube ad income, while this forum is also full of teslanaires with a proven TSLA track record explaining their reasoning for free.

 

[WarpedOne]

I don’t get it

Dumb are unable to understand smart and smart are unable to understand dumb.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Pre-opening bell up 6%!

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

Find the latest Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Mike Smith]

Here come the upgrades!!

JPM is first! They've just raised their PT from $250 to $295

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don’t get it why this thread is full of videos of people explaining the prospects of TSLA in exchange for some measly youtube ad income, while this forum is also full of teslanaires with a proven TSLA track record explaining their reasoning for free.

"Those who can, do.​

Those who can't, preach."​

​

142K shares traded already in the pre-Market after just 16 MINUTES!

TSLA Pre-Market Quotes​

This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Jan 03, 2022 04:16 AM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$1,129.75 +72.97 (+6.90%)
Pre-Market Volume	142,265
Pre-Market High	$1,134.25 (04:07:40 AM)
Pre-Market Low	$1,106 (04:00:06 AM)

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here come the upgrades!!

JPM is first! They've just raised their PT from $250 to $295

....the Universe maximizes irony:

Tesla (TSLA) PT Raised to $295 at JPMorgan, Reiterates Underweight

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman raised the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $295.00 (from $250.00) while maintaining a Underweight rating.The analyst comments "Our Underweight rating considers notable investment positives,...

www.streetinsider.com

... but these guys are living in the Multiverse (the one w/o causality)

Cheers!

 

[Oveeus]

 

[petit_bateau]

Also, let's not forget Elon's final outstanding tranche from the 2012 CEO compensation plan. To unlock itt requires a 30% gross margin for a full year. That means Tesla will move mountains and shift continents to get that done by Aug 2022. It's a billion bucks or more for Elon.

I expect >30% margins in 21-Q4, 22-Q1 and 22-Q2. Its a simple heuristic, but just watch!

Cheers!

On the one hand there is some ambiguity re whether this is auto GM%, or total GM%, with the latter held down by poor GM% in the non-auto divisions.
However releasing FSD revenue into the P&L during 2022 will tend to drive GM% up.
Nonetheless I am expecting they will simply do whatever is right to achieve the mission.

 

[Boomer19]

This is likely a low estimate for Shanghai. Their recently announced investment in production expansion, due to be complete in April 2022, is for 1.2M units per year. So if they have that 100k/mth run rate for the last 8 mths of the year, that's already 800K for Shanghai.

Further, their run rate exiting 2021-Q4 is at least 67k/mth so you could easily estimate 250k for Jan-Apr (even with the break for Chinese New Year / Spring Festival).

I think 1.0M+ units is a better estimate for Giga Shanghai production in 2022.

Cheers! #PREDICT

later in the post i suggested 900k as well for 2022

but…i like to err on the low side. that way days like today are much more fulfilling. i love watching these dumb SOBs scurry!

 

[Thekiwi]

Well, the FUD army, or more precisely the SUGB (Suicidal Unaware Greedy Bastards) is trying - let's see what other nonsense they can come up with.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477751483907067907

View attachment 751312

I guess they couldn’t go with the headline “I’m a F@#king idiot!“

 

[Thekiwi]

Here come the upgrades!!

JPM is first! They've just raised their PT from $250 to $295

Pretty ballsy of them to predict a 5-for-1 share split this week!

 

[torifile]

Here come the upgrades!!

JPM is first! They've just raised their PT from $250 to $295

I could have sworn you left a 1 off your number but you didn’t. What a complete joke. And those people get paid for these opinions?

 

[deffu]

I could have sworn you left a 1 off your number but you didn’t. What a complete joke. And those people get paid for these opinions?

I upgrade my 01/03 price target to $1200