Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AMN]

But wait... there is more...

No, not Moody's. That's noise.

You, fellas, are so busy counting Benjamins that you are ignoring the elephant sitting in front of you. DJIA.

Tesla qualifies for this exclusive 10 trillion dollar index of 30. Average entry is at 3%. Who is ready for $300B in stock locked up in DJIA?

Given the sentiment at the moment, I would STRONGLY advise to not exit your positions any time soon. Not until TSLA is part of DJIA.

 

[Fred42]

Tesla should add a $2,000 “out of state” shipping fee to anyone in Texas ordering a Tesla… that should build some public pressure on the politicians…

Texas is a populous state with a lot of potential customers. Also Tesla now lives there and needs goodwill. Sticking their finger in the eyes of Texans is a bad idea. Tesla will live with the situation until it is changed, even though that might take a while.

 

[Prunesquallor]

No. The TX legislature only meets every 2 years, unless the governor calls a special session. The bill to remove this was (not surprisingly) mired down in the past session and never made it for a vote.

Correct. I’m still hoping for a very brief Special Session to get this finished sometime soon. This would be extremely embarrassing to Gov Abbott who is running for re-election this year.

 

[KTC Lurker]

But wait... there is more...

No, not Moody's. That's noise.

You, fellas, are so busy counting Benjamins that you are ignoring the elephant sitting in front of you. DJIA.

Tesla qualifies for this exclusive 10 trillion dollar index of 30. Average entry is at 3%. Who is ready for $300B in stock locked up in DJIA?

Given the sentiment at the moment, I would STRONGLY advise to not exit your positions any time soon. Not until TSLA is part of DJIA.

Thanks for sharing this potential reality. What leads you to believe this will happen in the near future?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

But wait... there is more...

No, not Moody's. That's noise.

You, fellas, are so busy counting Benjamins that you are ignoring the elephant sitting in front of you. DJIA.

Tesla qualifies for this exclusive 10 trillion dollar index of 30. Average entry is at 3%. Who is ready for $300B in stock locked up in DJIA?

Given the sentiment at the moment, I would STRONGLY advise to not exit your positions any time soon. Not until TSLA is part of DJIA.

Tesla would have to do something like a 10-1 split to be DJIA friendly. That would be a serious 1-2 punch

 

[Cosmacelf]

Funny video watching Craig Irwin attempting to explain his Neutral rating and price target of $250

tl;dr summary: Tesla is still overvalued. Compared Tesla's 900K units this year to Toyota's 9M.

Of course, units don't matter, revenue matters, and revenue doesn't even matter, but margins, and margins don't even matter, but growth. Idiots like this think it is more likely that Tesla will stall out than keep growing. So, yeah, if you think Tesla will stop growing, then sure, it's worth $250 tops. However if you believe they have a solid chance at their 20M target by 2030, you'd be an idiot to sell.

Anyhoo, the "analyst" goes on to trot out the old canard that "there's no reason why Toyota can't transition to EVs and compete" against Tesla. Really dude? NO REASON? Like Toyota has no battery cell supply, no EV expertise, dealerships pushing against the transition, Tesla's brand, Tesla's SC network, Toyota's pensions, Tesla's manufacturing prowess, Autopilot, Teslabot, Tesla Energy, etc., etc.

The interviewer does a good job sticking it to the analyst. "So you aren't telling people to sell, you have a neutral rating, so if the stock did hit $250, you'd be wrong because you're not telling people to sell?". Answer: "The neutral rating means don't short it". Which makes no sense at all.

Basically, this guy's "analysis" doesn't hold water. It's a good case study in how "smart" people can come to any conclusion they want based on their own biases.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Yes, after passing this semi on 12/20 in Laramie WY (don’t ask) for the following day when we market downed, I had the wife do the driving and stayed close to the Terminal. Was a good day, pushed bout 1.5M into overall mkt, Travel, TSLA, MSFT, NVDA while driving with 50+ mph winds through the high planes of WY and NE. My target price was always there (was 870., moved it down to 840), but as I said over a month ago, SCALING in would occur sub $900. My predictive model says we’ll see another sub $1100 print within 30 days and sub $1000 within 60. Let the games begin. - again. This is how I get new model 3’s.

You're much more patient than I am. On December 28-31 I sold 40 TSLA 1055 Jan 7 puts at an average of $32.40. I think they'll expire worthless ($1.98 now), and so I'll keep the ~$129.5K I got for selling them. Taxes will take about half eventually, leaving about $65K to pay for the Model Y that I took delivery of on 27 December.

Best way to raise cash I know of.

My predictive model (my nose) says we'll never see $1100 again, barring a split. But I get surprised all the time. As I see it, Elon delivered on waypoints, and what is the old all-time high but a waypoint on the quick run to $1400/share?

 

[Cattledog]

Tesla would have to do something like a 10-1 split to be DJIA friendly. That would be a serious 1-2 punch

That's a delicious idea...

 

[Cosmacelf]

On the other hand, maybe I'll want to start my own business finally, or step away from the Musk world for a while and get a job somewhere else. Honestly, I don't know right now and I would appreciate any advice from those older and wiser than I.

Option 1: Since you're an engineer, you have the raw tools to start your own startup. That is a hoot, hard work, and the rewards could easily be 10x to 100x what you've made from your investments (ever wanted your own jet?).

Option 2: Start a family. Also rewarding! You can be retired while you enjoy life playing tennis, golf or whatever while you raise your kids at home.

Option 3: Since you're only 27, my recommendation is to do 1 then 2.

Good luck!

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'm pessimistic about this myself. I don't see it changing until Tesla starts bribing local politicians like the dealers do. So probably not until the entire dealer structure for legacy auto falls apart, maybe 2028 or so.

Unless this becomes a political issue in the next election cycle, you are right. It'll be interesting to see if any politician with a shot at getting elected has the guts to do this though. I suspect the answer is no.

 

[BitJam]

Tesla should add a $2,000 “out of state” shipping fee to anyone in Texas ordering a Tesla… that should build some public pressure on the politicians…

Legally they can't. The destination charge has to be the same for everyone regardless of how far the vehicle has to be shipped.

Back in June I paid an extra $750 to have Tesla ship my car from Colorado Springs to southern New Mexico due to the anti-Tesla laws here. They call this "Carrier Direct". It's available when you live 220 miles or more from the nearest delivery location.

Taking Delivery

 

[deffu]

Option 1: Since you're an engineer, you have the raw tools to start your own startup. That is a hoot, hard work, and the rewards could easily be 10x to 100x what you've made from your investments (ever wanted your own jet?).

Option 2: Start a family. Also rewarding! You can be retired while you enjoy life playing tennis, golf or whatever while you raise your kids at home.

Option 3: Since you're only 27, my recommendation is to do 1 then 2.

Good luck!

That’s a good idea. But from my own experience starting a business, I found myself and lot others unable to grow the capital as fast as Elon musk. For most ppl, it’s better to invest it in musk/bezos types. Let them do the dirty job and we cheer from sidelines

 

[deffu]

I sadly sold most at $6 roughly having bought at .10 (that’s a split adjusted 10 CENTS).. all adjusted.. call me stupid.

When iPhone first came out, I bought hundreds and sold them to Hongkong/China, Saudi Arab etc since they were not available there back then. I was super happy with the profits as they covered more than enough for my tuition/living expenses. Then I realized if I put some of it into aapl stock

 

[MP3Mike]

Back in June I paid an extra $750 to have Tesla ship my car from Colorado Springs to southern New Mexico due to the anti-Tesla laws here. They call this "Carrier Direct". It's available when you live 220 miles or more from the nearest delivery location.

Taking Delivery

Correct, but that is you taking delivery in Colorado and then paying to have it shipped to New Mexico. Unless Tesla stopped doing deliveries in Texas that wouldn't really be an option. (Nobody would opt to pay more to go with "Carrier Direct" delivery.)

But yes, they could stop delivering in Texas, and require Texans to take delivery out of state, either themselves or by paying a carrier to ship the car into Texas.

 

[Cosmacelf]

That’s a good idea. But from my own experience starting a business, I found myself and lot others unable to grow the capital as fast as Elon musk. For most ppl, it’s better to invest it in musk/bezos types. Let them do the dirty job and we cheer from sidelines

It’s gotta be the right kind of business. It can’t be a me too business. The product/service has to be unique and innovative with a large addressable market. So, yes, that means doing a lot of hard work identifying a good product and then r&d to see if it is viable. Think big. It is easy to fool yourself that some small little add on feature can support a company, but it can’t.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I question whether you would recognize discipline if it slapped you in the face. Because discipline is not making a quick buck, and running, it's knowing when to stick with it until you have built something of lasting value.

That's nonsense. Every trade is different. Discipline is deciding on your plan and sticking to it unless something material changes.

 

[mltv]

Cyber whistle revenues and profits have exceeded all vehicle sales from
NKLA
RIVN
LCID

https://twitter.com/x/status/1478199579942297600

Oh my. Cyber whistle getting a fast start to 2022. Let's see how NKLA RIVN LCID respond.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Slap me stupid. Sold 1.5% of my chairs today @1200. Bought in low 900s couple of weeks back. Clearing margin balance was the motivation.

Hmm. I wrote 30 TSLA Jan '23 1525 puts today for $525/share (TSLA at ~1180). Cleared out my margin balance very nicely.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It’s gotta be the right kind of business. It can’t be a me too business. The product/service has to be unique and innovative with a large addressable market. So, yes, that means doing a lot of hard work identifying a good product and then r&d to see if it is viable. Think big. It is easy to fool yourself that some small little add on feature can support a company, but it can’t.

Incidentally, here are three business ideas:

EV tractors for small to medium farms. Having to fuel these beasts with diesel is a pain in the butt since you can’t drive them to a gas station. Just like cars, battery powered tractors have intrinsic advantages over diesel (Extra weight is actually an advantage as is torque and fueling is easier).

Vehicle to home (V2H). For extended power outages like California wildfires, Texas cold snaps, east coast hurricanes, etc. Don’t need a generator, just use your car for the emergency. At least two companies are announcing products for this at CES (Blink and Wallbox), but the product is complicated enough to allow multiple solutions and pieces to the puzzle.

Third idea is figuring out how to implement continuous learning into AI. Right now, all commercial AI systems are a train and then use system, unlike humans which learn on the fly while using. Very little work is being done in this area, wide open field.

 

[Gigapress]

That’s a good idea. But from my own experience starting a business, I found myself and lot others unable to grow the capital as fast as Elon musk. For most ppl, it’s better to invest it in musk/bezos types. Let them do the dirty job and we cheer from sidelines

In all seriousness, I've actually thought about that. Like, what's the point of starting my own if the expected ROI is higher if I just let it ride on TSLA? I've settled on thinking that it boils down to two factors:

1) What ROI I would actually expect, which first I'd need to actually try to estimate, because maybe I could outpace TSLA.

2) How much I'd enjoy the process for its own sake. I don't know the answers to this question yet because I don't even know which idea I'd pursue yet. However, all of them sound pretty fun and fulfilling. On the other hand, I've heard that starting a business is like eating glass and staring into the abyss.


One thing working in my favor for ROI is that, as you might imagine, I am extremely skilled at getting what I want without spending money. One time I needed to cut a 2'x4' board in half, but I didn't own a saw, so I used a drill to put a bunch of holes in it and 10 minutes with a steak knife to finish the job. And this was actually the fastest way to get the job done considering how long it would've taken me to bike to the hardware store to spend $20 on a hand saw.

Although I am not Elon, I do share a first name with one of Elon's sons, which may bode well for my fortunes. Hint: It's not X Æ A-12.