Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jkirkwood001]

Bears like to compare Tesla to car companies. Wallstreet only cares about profits no matter what kind of company it is. Does Tesla deserves to be part of the trillion dollar club? Lets compare Tesla balance sheet in estimated Q4 to Amazon's when they first hit 1 trillion dollars due to Q4 2019 earnings.

Amazon yoy revenue growth: 21%
Amazon's operating margin: 5.18%
Amazon's operating income: 3.88B

Tesla's yoy revenue growth: ~80%
Tesla's operating margin: estimated ~18%
Tesla's operating income : estimated~ 3.1 B

Yes, amazon made more revenue than Tesla, but their operating margin is trash while guiding revenue growth to be 20-30% going forward(of course their revenue grew more than that due to black swan pandemic). Now that it's post pandemic, we see Amazon's revenue stalling while operating income dropping like a rock.

Tesla is guiding for 50% revenue growth going forward, and most likely supersede this number again in 2022. This is what bears don't want you to see because the operating income which translate mostly to non-gaap will continue to crush minds going forward and it's unprecedented given the revenue growth rate. Infact Tesla will surpass Amazon's operating income in 1.5 years at the guided 50% revenue growth rate(if operating margins stay the same)...however Zach said operating margins will continue to expand for the next few quarters.

Conclusion: We don't have to throw FSD robo taxi/energy/insurance/not a car company/robotic AI or any of that stuff as arguments to why Tesla is fairly valued(or maybe even under valued if they continue to crush earnings). It's all in the balance sheet.

Terrific perspective, @Singuy . And on that note, an update on how close we are to Amazon's market cap (and how quickly TSLA got here):

• TSLA worth 33% less than AMZN
  • 2 years ago, TSLA was worth 92% less than AMZN
• AAPL worth 159% more than TSLA
• TSLA worth 2 ½ the combined EU auto market (excl. Stellantis → in "US market")
• TSLA worth 3 ½ the combined legacy US auto market
• TSLA compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over last 5 ½ years: 582%
• Net worth's down from ATHs:
  • NIO (-48%)
  • Rivian (-22%)
  • BYD (-16%)
  • Meta [Facebook] (-13%)
  • Saudi Aramco (-12%)
  • Amazon (-10%)
  • Tesla (-6%)

What will this chart look like a year from now??

 

[nativewolf]

Is there a word for "I could retire, but my wife wants to live in the most expensive place in the country and spend $5000 a month on private schools"?

Asking for a friend.

Tell your wife that more obedience school is clearly not needed or wanted and refuse to go and in the future you'll enjoy the fine public schools just like your kids. Problem solved, retire.

 

[bkp_duke]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1478407619740155906

I can't argue with his analysis here. In all but TSLA, there appears to be a lot of hype, but not much substance.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Q4 last year annualized might be higher than that ($13.10) and they are projecting that for 2024?!?!


These guys get paid for this??!?

They firms providing analysis (and analysts) do get paid, but by whom to achieve what - that is the question...

 

[Drezil]

They firms providing analysis (and analysts) do get paid, but by whom to achieve what - that is the question...

I guess there are a lot of oil companies buying Gordons "Research"

 

[betstarship]

Isn't CES2022 going on right now? Wonder what all those attendees think of the Vegas Loop...

 

[woodisgood]

Isn't CES2022 going on right now? Wonder what all those attendees think of the Vegas Loop...

They’re too enthralled by Mary’s keynote to notice.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

They firms providing analysis (and analysts) do get paid, but by whom to achieve what - that is the question...

I have a friend in the financial business, and he says the analysts are basically doing marketing for their firm. Positive recommendations are trying to curry favor with the company being analyzed or similar companies. Negative recommendations are trying to curry favor with competitors of the company. They want the target audience to use their firm for financial services like fund raising, loans, or buying their ETF/mutual funds. Target audience also includes fans or detractors of the company being covered.

 

[Singuy]

On the topic of comparing Tsla to Amazon.

Analyst estimates Amazon's earnings Q4 2021 to be 3.75 billion. This is now within the ballpark of Tesla's Q4 earnings estimate.

Butttttttt look at Amazon's P/S?!@

Yeah no one cares, only profit matters.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

See Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[mltv]

Isn't CES2022 going on right now? Wonder what all those attendees think of the Vegas Loop...

CES starts tomorrow 1/5

Home

CES® is the most powerful tech event in the world — the proving ground for breakthrough technologies and global innovators. This is where brands get business done, meet new partners and where the industry’s sharpest minds take the stage to unveil their latest releases and boldest breakthroughs...

ces22.mapyourshow.com

Seems like VinFast is going big in this one. Quite big space. Qualcomm just announced automotive chips Qualcomm inks car chip deals with Volvo, Honda and Renault they have a nice space there. Some of the companies in the CES here seems to be green. CES hype? FSR, STLA, QCOM are green

 

[StealthP3D]

Every time we have a good day Stealth is ready to flex his HUGE FABULOUS INCREDIBLE DAY... This is why we can't have nice things.
(I kid, dear @StealthP3D, I love you and I love your free lessons about the power of compounding. They made me a rich man, so I'm forever grateful).

OK, if it'll make you feel any better, my brokerage account depreciated by 2X my lifetime earnings so far today! Oh, the pain, how will I cope?

The good news is that I bought 2 lbs. of organic butter yesterday and that should last until Tesla announces 2021 financials at the end of the month. So no rationing of the supplies, at least until then.

 

[Lessmog]

OK, if it'll make you feel any better, my brokerage account depreciated by 2X my lifetime earnings so far today! Oh, the pain, how will I cope?

The good news is that I bought 2 lbs. of organic butter yesterday and that should last until Tesla announces 2021 financials at the end of the month. So no rationing of the supplies, at least until then.

Good to know you put in the gravy then! (Or is that Poutine?)

 

[Buckminster]

On the topic of comparing Tsla to Amazon.

Analyst estimates Amazon's earnings Q4 2021 to be 3.75 billion. This is now within the ballpark of Tesla's Q4 earnings estimate.

Butttttttt look at Amazon's P/S?!@

Yeah no one cares, only profit matters.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

See Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.

finance.yahoo.com

This comparison with AMZN has only made me think AMZN looks reasonable value. TSLA is beyond cheap.

CES starts tomorrow 1/5

They should hold another CES in the summer. Engadget has pages of pre-CES announcements already.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Latest delivery estimates (from CA perspective). The trend of the higher priced (and higher margin) models being available sooner than the lower priced ones continues.

Model	Est Delivery
Model S	Jul
Model S Plaid	2-6 weeks
Model 3	Jun
Model 3 LR	Mar
Model 3 Perf	Feb
Model X	Jan 2023
Model X Plaid	Oct
Model Y LR	Jul
Model Y Perf	Mar

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This comparison with AMZN has only made me think AMZN looks reasonable value. TSLA is beyond cheap.

They should hold another CES in the summer. Engadget has pages of pre-CES announcements already.

Well in Amazon's case, the reason the stock has flatlined for the past couple of years and really only up 66% in the last 4 years or so is because the promise of those giant profits hasn't really materialized. The idea was that once the ecommerce business grew to such a scale, profits would just suddenly start pouring in. That hasn't really happened and investors have started to question just how much profit will actually be rolling in and when.

Whereas it's been difficult to really tell how much profits should be expected of Amazon in the future, Tesla's future earnings and profits are so easy to see.........except that Wall St just choses to ignore them.....oh well good for us now that Tesla's at scale to force the issue

 

[nativewolf]

I can't argue with his analysis here. In all but TSLA, there appears to be a lot of hype, but not much substance.

First time ever I've seen such a good summation of the industry and from him of all people.

 

[scubastevo80]

I can't argue with his analysis here. In all but TSLA, there appears to be a lot of hype, but not much substance.

This is the same Morgan Stanley that said their top EV pick for 2022 is.... more than you can afford pal, Ferrari....

 

[The Accountant]

It's a Fool's Game to try to forecast Free Cash Flow (FCF). Well I'm your fool.

"Tesla Delivers $2 Billion in FCF in Q4". There I said it !

Details of my Free Cash Flow are here:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

While it won’t be $0 fixed cost it won’t be linear to rest of factory as major costs relating to structure, heating, electrical were all already in place. Plus it’s also likely that several parts of the production process are already capable of handling more volume without increasing capital...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Richard007]

news like we have takes days (potentially weeks) to absorb. what does everyone think short term (about 45 days, enough time to let earnings sink in too)?.
1300, 1400?
1000, 1100?

to me, all seem possible in that timeframe!
but new highs may help establish a new ‘range’. to me that’s the one of the interesting parts.

$1,400 range I would think.

 

[Boomer19]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1478407619740155906

their '22 EPS still too low