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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Converted 65% of my holdings from common stock into Sep 2022, 600 CALLs. now on ~1.65 deltas overall vs. pure common stock position

IMHO TSLA hasn't been this cheap for quite some time, especially given the major derisking that happened with blowout deliveries, + more derisking happening in the next 6 months (Austin, Berlin coming online)
 
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Rage BTO!

Screenshot 2022-01-06 7.25.36 AM.png
 
It's even simpler than that. There is no "EV Market", there is only the "Automobile Market" (and light trucks).
Even more interesting is that the whole pie is not growing.

The whole pie shrank from 2018 to now by over 20 million units. What caused the 201x growth spurt, I don't know but it fell off before Covid hit. So instead of fighting over 100 million unit pie they fight over a 75 million unit pie and Tesla is growing at a phenomenal rate. So this year Tesla could have over 2% of total worldwide sales. The year after they could have over 5% of worldwide sales. Sales could continue to slide as global issues impact demand and supply. Or not...who knows. If I did someone would have made me coffee today.
 
All those "Germany is killing Giga Berlin" posts really piss me off. You are all oversimplyfying to a point where you make it sound as if there is only one central government involved that controls everything and acts completely arbitralily. Seems some can only think of Germany in terms of Hitler against the rest of the world/bad vs. good. It is more complex that that. /rant off

1) This is the State of Brandenburg government giving the permit, central government has little to do with it
2) At this point it is the State of Brandenburg making sure that there are no loopholes in the permit that would make it likely that "environmental" NGOs succeed in stopping production in court
3) The state of Brandenburg does have a strong interest in seeing Giga Berlin starting, for example jobs and taxes. Why would they have lobbied for getting Giga Berlin and then try to stop it?

Are there too many parties involved and antiquated rules that make the process more complex than it should be? Does it smell fishy that non-local environmental are able to sue that have been supported by other automakers? You bet. But this is not about a corrupt government.
I think you are taking this way too personally. This is an opportunity for positive change in Germany, with clear comparators in Shanghai and Austin as justification. Usually, making these kinds of comparisons is impossible, so this is a great gift.

In the US, they should be asking themselves why most jurisdictions could not build as quickly as in Austin. They have a new measuring stick. And in Austin, they should be asking themselves how they can improve to get to the build rate of Shanghai (weather-adjusted).
 
Yes, this is very difficult to ignore for this retired swing trader. Just sold a condo and my couch is bursting at the seams. The buy ladder image in my head is like a sirens song...
Yep just buy and hold. Then work a lot to save cash and when it goes down again, buy more lol.( And continue to live frugally/modestly. 😅)
That’s been my journey for the past 3 years
 
Yes, its PSYOPS targeting the weak and the easily defeated. Helped by their ownership of the legislature, the regulator, and the book keepers. We have only one advantage: We're right; they're wrong.

Hey, I have an idea. You should go for a walk. You'll feel better when you get some distance. I prefer 5K... ;)

Cheers!
It's all about the buzz. Tesla had 100% before. Now with all the announcements they have to share the limelight. A couple of weeks and we will likely rebound.
 
Tesla is still down more than twenty times what the NASDAQ is down.

I know it feels painful, but in reality it's ~4x vs the NASDAQ-100 since the Tue a.m. TSLA peak SP:

TSLA.5-Day.2022-01-06.09-45.png


Now the BIGGER coincidence is that we are back to EXACTLY EVEN with the NDX. Hmmm, that is SUSPICIOUS. :p

"MMs and hedgies, working together, for the bitterment of all mankind."​

Cheers!
 
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Had I sold a few more at the top instead of HODLing, maybe like 100 shares, I would have bought back most before this price, then watch it all drop anyway. Therefor, my lost opportunity short term was $100 gap x 100 chairs = +10K had I played this swing.

However, had I sold 100, then watched it continue to climb (and it had that potential), I might not have had the guts to buy back in at a higher price. This may have led to paying off some loans or buying a new Solar Roof and eventually forget I even had those shares, especially when it comes back to the same portfolio value later on as it blows past 1250.

But if they picked up my 100 shares x 500 (share price adjustment that I expect sometime this year) =$50K of lost opportunity (5x) as compared to getting there following the Yellow Brick Road full of Lions, Tigers, and Bears. Scared or remorseful at times, then feeling brilliant at other times.

By HODLing, at no time did I miss any future upside potential, as I'm still fully still in the game. Max return of chair investment guaranteed, no downsizing occured. (Also, in 3 days, things will look completely different. What I always say, no matter what.)
 
I know it feels painful, but in reality it's -3x vs the NASDAQ-100 since the Tue a.m. TSLA peak SP:

View attachment 752635

Now the BIGGER coincidence is that we are back to EXACTLY EVEN with the NDX. Hmmm, that is SUSPICIOUS. :p

"MMs and hedgies, working together, for the bitterment of all mankind."

Cheers!
Didn’t they do all this crap to Apple back in the day? Someday maybe they won’t be able to manipulate this company so much.