Elon may have 99 problems, a lack of attention ain’t one of ‘em.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Krugerrand
Meow
Meh. He should get lost, for a long while. I’d find that helpful.
It would be good ROI on our part to launch him into space on a multi day mission.
I just today had a revelation about Tesla valuation. Pardon me as I’m nearly certain this has been mentioned somewhere in the thread and I missed it.
It’s been my fear for the past few years, that as EV start ups struggle/fail, they would drag Tesla‘s valuation down with them. Like Lucid delivering less than 100 cars and they barely work (though they allegedly have excellent efficiency)
My revelation is that Wall Street is possibly just smart enough to realize this; as these others fail and Tesla continues to succeed. It’s possible we see some outflows from the Fords, GM’s, Lucids, and rivians; and Tesla possibly sees a rerating for doing the impossible. Empty promises be damned.
We here, all know that there is only 1 Tesla. It’s becoming harder for the knuckleheads on Wall Street to ignore this. And somehow this knucklehead just realized it will help, not hurt the Tesla valuation.
I won’t deny that Tesla is being valued richly for its top to bottom line performance. But I think soon, there will be some greater than zero value assigned for being THE ONLY pure EV play.
It’s been my fear for the past few years, that as EV start ups struggle/fail, they would drag Tesla‘s valuation down with them. Like Lucid delivering less than 100 cars and they barely work (though they allegedly have excellent efficiency)
My revelation is that Wall Street is possibly just smart enough to realize this; as these others fail and Tesla continues to succeed. It’s possible we see some outflows from the Fords, GM’s, Lucids, and rivians; and Tesla possibly sees a rerating for doing the impossible. Empty promises be damned.
We here, all know that there is only 1 Tesla. It’s becoming harder for the knuckleheads on Wall Street to ignore this. And somehow this knucklehead just realized it will help, not hurt the Tesla valuation.
I won’t deny that Tesla is being valued richly for its top to bottom line performance. But I think soon, there will be some greater than zero value assigned for being THE ONLY pure EV play.
There has been a fundamental assumption by analysts/Wall Street that Tesla's competitors will execute perfectly and any mistake by Tesla is a sign that Tesla isn't ready for the big leagues. As the competitors go from being fancy renderings to real cars to production, they are making the inevitable mistakes, often worse than anything that Tesla ever did. Analysts/WS are now trying to figure out how to deal with this new reality that just maybe Tesla is doing something amazing and they were wrong all along about them and the competition. Some are cluing into this faster than others.
Tesla delivering 15 Semis this month? New mega chargers being installed.
driveteslacanada.ca
Tesla Megachargers arrive at Frito-Lay facility ahead of January Semi deliveries
The first Tesla Megachargers have arrived at Frito-Lay’s facility in Modesto, California, just in time for the first Tesla Semis to be delivered to PepsiCo later this month. We first learned this facility was going […]
driveteslacanada.ca
Marc_K_inNJ
Member
That’s a good point. I actually just used “the competition is coming, NOT” in a debate I had with a colleague of mine last Friday. I was telling him why it’s a good time to put $ into TSLA, before the P&D was released and the upcoming ER… he started telling me about the competition is coming… well, this time I was able to use the competition as an example of why Tesla is so unique. I pointed out that Ford can’t produce more than a small amount of Lightning’s even though they are the oldest car company… how Rivian with so many years of R&D couldn’t put out more than a handful of units. GM Bolt disaster, only one Hummer sale…. Etc
It’s not only the manufacturing of cars but also that Tesla makes the owner’s experience better by a) selling directly (no dealer) and b) peace of mind with supercharger network.
Even if/when the other mfrs produce an EV they still have to contend with these other two issues which I don’t view as trivial.
And…unrivaled infotainment.
In this video Warren shares a lot of owner experiences (forum posts) describing terrible user experiences.
As has been said many times before, it would be great if a company other than Tesla could profitably make a compelling EV at scale, but that day has not yet come…meanwhile they’re all falling farther behind.
Krugerrand
Meow
That’s a safety score of
right there, all day long, every day.Hmmm. This was TSLAQ and still is. It's really something to see Warren went full dark side on this. Do Lucid cars have problems? Most likely..but so did the first teslas so it's fair to give these companies some time to iron things out.
The one handed driving style is on point. Must be a natural instinct for us as well? Or did the orangutan learn with two hands and switch to one hand as he progressed??
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, that counts! Nicely sussed! Note the intraday 1-minute low SP was actually ABOVE your buy!
Now, for the group, put your hand up if you don't understand how @CaliBear1 picked the bottom so closely in advance. Although we don't know at the exact time this Limit Order was placed, the following data was available today by 09:50 ET: (when the SP plunged $10 in under 2 minutes, it was clear a bear raid was underway)
N.B. note the position of the Mid-BB. At this point, there are still multiple possibilities for the tgt SP, but it an obvious and tempting tgt for the bears. With a with limit order, you either hit or miss out on the buy: Low risk if it hits IMO, and no foul if it misses. Heuristic added the mix: Bear raids seldom last longer than 3 sessions (they have to cover their shorts, and there's that nasty 2-day settlement rule and such).
Now this is not advice; this is not the beginning of advice; but this is perhaps the end of the beginning of advice.
Cheers!
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Rawlinson himself has stated he is not a software guy, scarcely knows anything about software, and is letting his teams try to figure out the software side. This is the biggest thing that is going to doom Lucid.
Meanwhile Elon comes from a software, not hardware background. Software is 95% of Tesla's competitive advantage, the other 5% is the Supercharger network. It's a lot easier to find talent that can design a car than talent that can design software. This is why Silicon Valley is so perennially underappreciated by Wall Street types who think you just wave a magic wand and iOS comes out or something. Software has always been the real advantage, Tesla has it and everyone else like Lucid and Rivian plus the legacy auto types do not.
Lucid has a tough row to hoe, not only because they literally chose to copy the Tesla plan exactly more than a decade later and make the Model S again except not as good, but because their strength is in commodity hardware and not highly competitive and specialized software. Even Rivian has an easier road ahead because at least Rivian picked market segments which aren't already completely saturated like Lucid did.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Regarding CES, I wonder if anyone has had the guts to tell "You Did It" Mary about the Tesla-infused Boring tunnel at the convention center?
Kudos and double brownie points, plus a gold star for anyone getting a picture of her in or beside a LVCC Tesla Personal People Transporter.
GM cancelled their attendance. All their presentations are being done virtually. Like the non-existant specs for the $30K Crossover. You know, the one w/o prototype, factory, or bty supply?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tesla's BoD is authorized to increase share count by up to 20% w/o a vote of the shareholders. Beyond that requires a vote, which in turn needs a min. 2 week notification period.
Some commenters have claimed the BoD can declare the split immediately, then seek retroactive permission with a shareholder vote. Personally, I don't see that working as once the shares start trading and the naked shorting starts, you've got a whole bag of cats right there...
So maybe?
Tesla's bylaws currently allow up to 2 billion shares. With the addtional 20% the BoD is authorized to create, they could do a 2:1 split.
Question is, why would they? Either a 5:1 or an 10:1 split is indicated just by the current SP value, depending on their goals for the split.
Difficult right now to estimate Elon's position on a potential split, many factors in play. But a 2:1 though possible is unlikely IMO.
Cheers!
There is a very good reason for splitting that is currently unfulfilled i.e. current share price is not high enough to prevent majority of tesla employees from buying shares at discount prices.
This will become a problem when SP goes above 2k this fall.
This will become a problem when SP goes above 2k this fall.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
TSLA Pre-Market Quotes
This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Jan 07, 2022 04:29 AM ET.
| Consolidated Last Sale | $1,080.90 +$16.20 (+1.52%) 4:36 AM |
|---|---|
| Pre-Market Volume | 34,195 |
| Pre-Market High | $1,081.00 (04:29:24 AM) |
| Pre-Market Low | $1,056.52 (04:01:35 AM) |
Here's the chart trading in Euro for TL0 - Tradegate (Berlin):
Tad bit jumpy in the early pre-Market, wot?
Cheers!
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Interesting argument from Papafox on why the SP is lagging: Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
TL;DR: 21/01 Max Pain is 740, because of 2019 LEAPS.
TL;DR: 21/01 Max Pain is 740, because of 2019 LEAPS.
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