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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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GM cancelled their attendance. All their presentations are being done virtually. Like the non-existant specs for the $30K Crossover. You know, the one w/o prototype, factory, or bty supply? :p
Harsh. They did announce 'Planetarium Mode' after all: GM at CES 2022: Experience The Ultium Effect

I like this bit at the end (is this standard in the land of the litigant?):
Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements: This press release and related comments by management may include “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are any statements other than statements of historical fact. Forward-looking statements represent our current judgement about possible future events and are often identified by words such as “anticipate,” “appears,” “approximately,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “designed,” “effect,” “estimate,” “evaluate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “goal,” “initiative,” “intend,” “may,” “objective,” “outlook,” “plan,” “potential,” “priorities,” “project,” “pursue,” “seek,” “should,” “target,” “when,” “will,” “would,” or the negative of any of those words or similar expressions. In making these statements, we rely upon assumptions and analysis
 
@Knightshade has commented on this topic often. It is his opinion that shares need to be authorized first before a share split/dividend can be announced.
Paying a real dividend on a quarterly basis, however trivial (say 1c), would not normally need shareholder approval to start as interim dividends are a board perogative. Depending on the Mem & Arts of Tesla (and US law, which is not my thing) the final divvi might need to be voted on at the AGM, but not the interim ones. Paying a real dividend would tend to cause naked shorts to contemplate their risk profile and FTD evidence trail a little more thoughtfully. OK, it is not the big stick of a share split/dividend in threatening naked shorts but it might be helpful.

Also paying a 1c/qtr dividend might put additional pressure on the ratings agencies to rerate Tesla to investment grade. In one sense that does not matter to private shareholders, but it would enable those funds that have a "investment-grade-only" mandate restriction to become investors. By now they probably really want that re-rate as their comparative performance will be suffering vis-a-vis any of their peer groups who can hold. And almost irrespective of whether those funds are passive trackers, closet trackers, or actives their buying in would tend to force prices up. Whilst the buy-in is a one-time event what would be more significant imho is that thereafter they would largely tend to be fairly inactive holders and so damp volatility, and inhibit bad behaviour through better alignment of underlying incentives for more of the actors in the investment community.
 
Kato cells outside of testing etc will go to Austin for model Y, Berlin will use 2170 structural until their cell plant spools up
A similar statement was made yesterday by @sammpa re Berlin using 2170. I do not recall any statement from Elon/Tesla to that effect (only that they had a 'plan B' to use 2170 if the 4680 ramp was not sufficiently advanced). Can you (or anyone else) provide a reference?
 
Hmmm. This was TSLAQ and still is. It's really something to see Warren went full dark side on this. Do Lucid cars have problems? Most likely..but so did the first teslas so it's fair to give these companies some time to iron things out.

That is not the whole picture. Rawlinson stated that they will only deliver "quality" luxury cars at every chance he got.

Adaptive cruise control and automatic emergency braking are not available. Proximity sensors are way off. There are constant UI crashes. Navigation does not work when the car loses internet connection and there is no alternative like carplay or android auto. One owner says "this is not even a beta software, nothing works. I am afraid the put the car on the road".

Here is a recent owner post detailing the whole experience so far : 10 Days 736 miles and 1 road trip

The issue here is not some minor missing functionality that can be added later. The cars delivered so far are "non-driveable".
 
Yeah, that counts! Nicely sussed! Note the intraday 1-minute low SP was actually ABOVE your buy! :D

View attachment 752908

Now, for the group, put your hand up if you don't understand how @CaliBear1 picked the bottom so closely in advance. Although we don't know at the exact time this Limit Order was placed, the following data was available today by 09:50 ET: (when the SP plunged $10 in under 2 minutes, it was clear a bear raid was underway)

View attachment 752912 View attachment 752913

N.B. note the position of the Mid-BB. At this point, there are still multiple possibilities for the tgt SP, but it an obvious and tempting tgt for the bears. With a with limit order, you either hit or miss out on the buy: Low risk if it hits IMO, and no foul if it misses. Heuristic added the mix: Bear raids seldom last longer than 3 sessions (they have to cover their shorts, and there's that nasty 2-day settlement rule and such).

Now this is not advice; this is not the beginning of advice; but this is perhaps the end of the beginning of advice. ;)

Cheers!
Thanks Artful Dodger! If there was any magic I would’ve shared it with the group. I felt that the sell off wasn’t quite over, but didn’t believe it would drop below 1000 before the buying pressure would resume. I then picked an arbitrary number of 1025 and placed the limit order before the market opened. Lucky for now, but who knows if TSLA won’t again test 1000. 🤷‍♂️ I’ll be ready. 👊
 
Wow, gm. Wow Mary "you did it", those numbers are horrible. Even if the Silverado EV turns out great, will you live that long to see it?


Though that’s comparing GM US sales to Tesla global sales. I’m not sure what GM’s total sales are, and maybe the Wuling ought not to be counted in that… but I’m sure the global sales numbers are a bit more in legacy’s favor than the tweet reflects.

The profitability numbers are a fair comparison, though. :)
 
Model X Plaid: the configurator seems to only offer 6 seats now, so the base price just went up $6500. I know they’re *delivering* 6-seaters first, but do they really have no intention of producing the 5/7 seat versions? This could be temporary except the backlog means it won’t even kick in for quite a while… I wonder if they just don’t want plaids (eventually) sitting undelivered because of a less popular seating configuration? Or is this a supply issue?
 
That is not the whole picture. Rawlinson stated that they will only deliver "quality" luxury cars at every chance he got.

Adaptive cruise control and automatic emergency braking are not available. Proximity sensors are way off. There are constant UI crashes. Navigation does not work when the car loses internet connection and there is no alternative like carplay or android auto. One owner says "this is not even a beta software, nothing works. I am afraid the put the car on the road".

Here is a recent owner post detailing the whole experience so far : 10 Days 736 miles and 1 road trip

The issue here is not some minor missing functionality that can be added later. The cars delivered so far are "non-driveable".
Yeah reading the forum it looks like a bunch of nitpickers with crazy high expectations. Response to the review includes a lot of crapping on Tesla software as well. One guy said he rather drive his Honda odyssey than his plaid.

So this was how tslaq started. Ceo or marketing say one thing and it didn't meet some peoples expectations. Tslaq took those comments and ran with it calling it fraud fraud fraud for the last decade. And once you go down that rabbit hole many just can't seem to u-turn.
 
Mostly EV Market has been used to show that EVs aren't "real cars", just a passing fad. I don't think EV Market was ever helpful. Agreed this is more clear today than in the past.

I don't interpret it like that so much as what humans are inclined to do with any novel tech; cars vs. horses, steam vs. ICE, leaded vs. unleaded, diesel, bio-diesel (remember that fad?), hybrid, hydrogen, and finally electric (which GM killed in the early days with the EV-1 fiasco). For many reasons, the distinction is important so people know if the new tech is interim, viable, a little of both, etc. This helps early adoption (or FUD kills it off) until the tech is forgotten, killed-off (good idea or not), mainstream. For EVs, this didn't come easily. The fact that we can start to ignore the distinction is testament to Tesla's runaway success because of widespread adoption....and yet we still see so much nonsensical/irrational/uninformed FUD out there. not to mention pockets of resistance in the form of vandalism, rolling coal, ICing charging spots, drivers 'triggered' by EVs and driving aggressively around us, etc. This doesn't even get into the political aspects of what a Tesla represents in the minds of those who seem to be 'triggered' by them.

Finally, I think it's worth proving to the world (still) that EVs aren't just here and viable, but that they are *superior*. We're not done with that yet, so the distinction is still important. :)
 
Tesla delivering 15 Semis this month? New mega chargers being installed.


Aside from deliveries soon, I found this to be the most important new information:

"According to information provided to Drive Tesla, the Megachargers will actually charge at up 1.5MW, 50% higher than originally anticipated.

Delivering that much power generates a lot of heat, so in order to keep things manageable the system will use new immersion cooling technology, the exact details of which couldn’t be shared at this time."


50% faster delivery = faster charging times = relieve one of the larger concerns for customers of the Class 8 vehicles, the amount of time the truck is not on the road moving product due to charging time.

Things are getting interesting with this product, quickly.
 
Yeah reading the forum it looks like a bunch of nitpickers with crazy high expectations. Response to the review includes a lot of crapping on Tesla software as well. One guy said he rather drive his Honda odyssey than his plaid.

So this was how tslaq started. Ceo or marketing say one thing and it didn't meet some peoples expectations. Tslaq took those comments and ran with it calling it fraud fraud fraud for the last decade. And once you go down that rabbit hole many just can't seem to u-turn.

There is no way the “Honda Odyssey owner” has ever driven a Tesla. It’s a troll dissing on Tesla and trying to add credibility by pretending to be a Tesla owner. It’s an old debating tactic

The comments sections on news sites, Reddit, seeking alpha, and YouTube are so often a cesspool of bias, lies, hatred, and idiocy that I make a conscious effort not to peek. But when I do, it makes me appreciate this forum even more, warts and all. ❤️
 
That is not the whole picture. Rawlinson stated that they will only deliver "quality" luxury cars at every chance he got.

Adaptive cruise control and automatic emergency braking are not available. Proximity sensors are way off. There are constant UI crashes. Navigation does not work when the car loses internet connection and there is no alternative like carplay or android auto. One owner says "this is not even a beta software, nothing works. I am afraid the put the car on the road".

Here is a recent owner post detailing the whole experience so far : 10 Days 736 miles and 1 road trip

The issue here is not some minor missing functionality that can be added later. The cars delivered so far are "non-driveable".
It’s amazing that this guy seems to hate Tesla, but a Tesla would solve just about all of his and his wife’s complaints 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
There is no way the “Honda Odyssey owner” has ever driven a Tesla. It’s a troll dissing on Tesla and trying to add credibility by pretending to be a Tesla owner. It’s an old debating tactic

The comments sections on news, seeking alpha, and YouTube are so often a cesspool of bias, lies, hatred, and idiocy that I make a conscious effort not to peek. But when I do, it makes me appreciate this forum even more, warts and all. ❤️
Maybe, but then you can't take bad lucid reviews as gospel and bad Tesla reviews as conspiracy. We are not Q anything. Remain objective and should always assume all these companies are trying to do good vs frauding their customers until hard evidence comes up like the Nikola shenanigans.
 
Paying a real dividend on a quarterly basis, however trivial (say 1c), would not normally need shareholder approval to start as interim dividends are a board perogative. Depending on the Mem & Arts of Tesla (and US law, which is not my thing) the final divvi might need to be voted on at the AGM, but not the interim ones. Paying a real dividend would tend to cause naked shorts to contemplate their risk profile and FTD evidence trail a little more thoughtfully. OK, it is not the big stick of a share split/dividend in threatening naked shorts but it might be helpful.

Also paying a 1c/qtr dividend might put additional pressure on the ratings agencies to rerate Tesla to investment grade. In one sense that does not matter to private shareholders, but it would enable those funds that have a "investment-grade-only" mandate restriction to become investors. By now they probably really want that re-rate as their comparative performance will be suffering vis-a-vis any of their peer groups who can hold. And almost irrespective of whether those funds are passive trackers, closet trackers, or actives their buying in would tend to force prices up. Whilst the buy-in is a one-time event what would be more significant imho is that thereafter they would largely tend to be fairly inactive holders and so damp volatility, and inhibit bad behaviour through better alignment of underlying incentives for more of the actors in the investment community.



AFAIK Elon has only ever made 2 comments regarding paying cash dividends.

That it's what a company does when they can't figure out anything better to do with money
and
Tesla will never pay one


One can argue that the first statement, coming later than the second in time, means he's open to changing his mind in the distant future... but it'd require a complete change of mind for them to offer one anytime soon.


In addition- their current FAQ on the IR site likewise says:

Tesla IR FAQ said:
We intend on retaining all future earnings to finance future growth and therefore, do not anticipate paying any cash dividends in the foreseeable future.
 
This is very strange since resistance heaters are always 100% efficient. Maybe re-circulation has been turned off by default so the car is now using a lot of energy to warm up cold fresh air from outside. This would be a simple explanation for the recent HVAC woes stemming from a UI change. It would also explain why it only happens to some people and why it's most noticed in cold weather/climates.
Heat pumps are 400% efficient in comparison. A resistance heater burns electricity to make heat. A heat pump steals heat from outside the car and brings it into the car/system by electrical power. The same energy moves a lot more heat then just burning off the electricity.
 
There is no way the “Honda Odyssey owner” has ever driven a Tesla. It’s a troll dissing on Tesla and trying to add credibility by pretending to be a Tesla owner. It’s an old debating tactic

The comments sections on news sites, Reddit, seeking alpha, and YouTube are so often a cesspool of bias, lies, hatred, and idiocy that I make a conscious effort not to peek. But when I do, it makes me appreciate this forum even more, warts and all. ❤️

Yes and why would a 'Tesla hater' buy the most expensive Tesla on offer and then...complain about it? Comparing a Plaid to an Odyssey is weird as well, along with being a category error.