Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

I think this will be a big deal but 2023 is the year to make an impact: announcements like that from Gotion for 200GWh (LFP) with a US automaker and for other applications. It's going to be building facility in the USA for this but the deal covers 2023-8 are just one example. Today nothing stops someone from simply shipping the LFP but then you have supply chain issues. In any case the megapacks are pretty much sold out so it doesn't really matter this year- could be cell constraints or power electronic constraints. The facility there in CA doesn't make cells (always welcome to be corrected), it is an assembly facility where the packs and power electronics are packaged. Basically Tesla has scrapped the Powerpacks (as far as I can tell) and has just moved to offer more capacity and better power electronics in a simplified package.

I guess I don't find the megapack interesting from revenue generation, they are still cell constrained. It's nice that they are creating more industrial scale solutions (because energy desperately needs this to clean up the grid) but there assembly facility doesn't remove the big hurdle, global lack of cells in 2022.

Tesla Battery Day describes how TE will transition to no longer being cell contrained.

IMO the Lithium Clay extraction process isn't an optional extra, it is a vital part of ramping in house LFP production for TE.

Drew in particular mentions TE many times during BD.

 

[RobDickinson]

So after weeks of test production (including visiting Norway) Giga Berlin has already started production in hush hush mode (2000 cars allowed) - and Giga Texas after weeks of hush hush test production (finished cars kept indoors) will start production in "two weeks" (if Dan Ives knows his stuff).

This is really fantastic! I think I need a sip of Teslaquila this evening!

Edit: Watching vids like this one I can see that the number of trailers backed into the loading docks has increased in Berlin. Not many at the same time yet but enough to believe that they have ramped up a little:

It's not hush hush mode it's legally public in government documents and they are test cars only, specifically blocked from being sold

 

[Christine69420]

It's not hush hush mode it's legally public in government documents and they are test cars only, specifically blocked from being sold

Yes I agree. But I believe they can be sold when the final permit arrives. Or it's a gigantic waste heap.

And it's more hush hush since it's enough cars to work trough the first steps of ramping production.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

For Zipse, these parts are made through “a normal casting process.” The really demolishing bit of the BMW CEO speech came when he said that “there is no economic reason to have very large integrated parts in these vehicles.”

I guess the producers of the Ultimate Driving Machine(TM) don't need a stiffer, lighter chassis.

The problem that Zipse has is that whilst Tesla will make say 2M cars in 2022, the vast majority (and the ones that make use of Gigapress) will be on TWO platforms - 3 and Y. BMW does not have any platforms with similar volumes. They have lots of platforms: 1 series, 3 series, 5 series, 7 series ... each with lots of variations. They would need many different castings to service this variety. In addition their factories are smaller.

Making effective use of Gigapress would require BMW to both rationalise their product range and reduce their factories so that 250-500k vehicles are being made on the same platform at the same location.

BMW are not the only legacy manufacturer in this situation.

 

[FireMedic]

Except the difference is there's actually a some what FSD available today vs when you bought in. Definitely gives me joy being part of the beta team as I get a update every 2 weeks. It doesn't matter if it's an improvement or a regression. The process to me is worth some money.

2 additional points that complicate our situation with FSD.

1.) We would just be moving money from one pocket to the other as I will either deploy 10k to buy this dip or buy FSD.

2.) The ‘20 LRX that would get FSD has lifetime free charging so I don’t have any intention of ever selling it.

We’re leaning towards getting it either now or after beta wide release; if nothing else…it’s investment research. Can only glean so much from watching videos; we really want to try it for ourselves. We’re not buying it for value add, but out of an abundance curiousity.

Why pay $12k for something we could buy now for $10k…equal odds that we just rent it for $199.

Just wish Elon didn’t force our hand on this decision.

 

[WattsHappening]

2 additional points that complicate our situation with FSD.

1.) We would just be moving money from one pocket to the other as I will either deploy 10k to buy this dip or buy FSD.

2.) The ‘20 LRX that would get FSD has lifetime free charging so I don’t have any intention of ever selling it.

We’re leaning towards getting it either now or after beta wide release; if nothing else…it’s investment research. Can only glean so much from watching videos; we really want to try it for ourselves. We’re not buying it for value add, but out of an abundance curiousity.

Why pay $12k for something we could buy now for $10k…equal odds that we just rent it for $199.

Just wish Elon didn’t force our hand on this decision.

1. Opportunity cost of $10K for FSD is pretty high for you! A couple of years from now, it could be worth $20-30K.

2. Don't be so sure. I thought the same thing about our first Model 3. We were going to drive it and then give to our daughter when she starts driving (what better car could there be for a 16 year old than a well-kept 8-9 year old Model 3?). But then the Model Y came along, and well.... In a couple of years, you might decide you need a Plaid X or a CT, free SC'ing be damned.

Finally, I would not base my decision to buy or rent on the $199. I would be shocked if that price didn't increase over time, and in a material manner. Would it make a difference if it were $299 per month for example?

 

[FireMedic]

1. Opportunity cost of $10K for FSD is pretty high for you! A couple of years from now, it could be worth $20-30K.

2. Don't be so sure. I thought the same thing about our first Model 3. We were going to drive it and then give to our daughter when she starts driving (what better car could there be for a 16 year old than a well-kept 8-9 year old Model 3?). But then the Model Y came along, and well.... In a couple of years, you might decide you need a Plaid X or a CT, free SC'ing be damned.

Finally, I would not base my decision to buy or rent on the $199. I would be shocked if that price didn't increase over time, and in a material manner. Would it make a difference if it were $299 per month for example?

Well we still have an older Benz that will be replaced with a CT (we’re a 3 car house with MIL living with us). At that point my wife would be using the X for her commute (2 days/week) from east bay to tech office in Palo Alto (worst commute in the USA?).

At that point our daughter is driving and gets our M3 (she’s 13 and already trying to bargain using my cybernotatruck).

One of my hangups is whether my wife could use her commute stipend to pay FSD subscription…seems like a stretch.

 

[MXWing]

1. Opportunity cost of $10K for FSD is pretty high for you! A couple of years from now, it could be worth $20-30K.

2. Don't be so sure. I thought the same thing about our first Model 3. We were going to drive it and then give to our daughter when she starts driving (what better car could there be for a 16 year old than a well-kept 8-9 year old Model 3?). But then the Model Y came along, and well.... In a couple of years, you might decide you need a Plaid X or a CT, free SC'ing be damned.

Finally, I would not base my decision to buy or rent on the $199. I would be shocked if that price didn't increase over time, and in a material manner. Would it make a difference if it were $299 per month for example?

Second economics (or finance?) lesson for the day:

10,000 or 12,000 for FSD is not giving up 10,000 or 12,000 in TSLA stock for most people who have the opportunity of getting FSD at time of purchase.

You are amortizing that cost over 4-5 years at historically low interest rates.

How nice it would be in lieu of a house, get a loan on 2000 Tesla shares for 2 million, and only need to pay $6000 per month for the next 30 years and benefit from every single dollar increase in value.

Take away for Elon if he happens to be reading is:

Give people the opinion of financing FSD post purchase with Tesla.
Give creditors the option to "repo" the software if loan goes into default.

You'd FSD half the fleet overnight.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Q4 Earnings Estimate | Tesla Economist on Youtube (08 Jan 2020)

 

[WattsHappening]

Second economics (or finance?) lesson for the day:

10,000 or 12,000 for FSD is not giving up 10,000 or 12,000 in TSLA stock for most people who have the opportunity of getting FSD at time of purchase.

You are amortizing that cost over 4-5 years at historically low interest rates.

How nice it would be in lieu of a house, get a loan on 2000 Tesla shares for 2 million, and only need to pay $6000 per month for the next 30 years and benefit from every single dollar increase in value.

Take away for Elon if he happens to be reading is:

Give people the opinion of financing FSD post purchase with Tesla.
Give creditors the option to "repo" the software if loan goes into default.

You'd FSD half the fleet overnight.

Great idea!

I'm in a similar situation as @FireMedic. I'm pretty much all in on TSLA stock and options. Buying FSD for $10K would mean $10K less of TSLA shares, which I don't want to do. When we purchased our Model Y in September, we financed it for exactly this reason (first time in forever we have not paid cash for a car).

I would be in that 'FSD in half the fleet' category if Tesla offered financing for it.

 

[BornToFly]

Except the difference is there's actually a some what FSD available today vs when you bought in. Definitely gives me joy being part of the beta team as I get a update every 2 weeks. It doesn't matter if it's an improvement or a regression. The process to me is worth some money.

One of the rare times I disagree with you.... I've been trying to get into the beta program since it started. So far nothing despite a perfect safety score and paying for FSD 2.5 YEARS ago. When we recently bought our 7th Tesla (Model Y this time) I did NOT get FSD. I love Elon, but he is not tricking me again. If I ever get FSD to download to my Model S, and I love it, then I might reconsider. This time it's - "Show me the money/FSD!" before I pay for it.

 

[jw934]

I would be in that 'FSD in half the fleet' category if Tesla offered financing for it.

Tesla Canada offers full financing of everything. In fact, Tesla helped me get finance for $1577.75 MORE than the entire cost of the purchase, including FSD. I guess I don't need to pay the first monthly installment.

 

[FireMedic]

Great idea!

I'm in a similar situation as @FireMedic. I'm pretty much all in on TSLA stock and options. Buying FSD for $10K would mean $10K less of TSLA shares, which I don't want to do. When we purchased our Model Y in September, we financed it for exactly this reason (first time in forever we have not paid cash for a car).

I would be in that 'FSD in half the fleet' category if Tesla offered financing for it.

I thought we could’ve rolled it into the loan and did consider it.

However, in California our vehicle registration fees are based on the purchase price the vehicle so we chose to not do that…that has sort of blown up in my face since the cost of FSD has gone up 30% since we bought the car and now I’m considering purchasing it for 10-12k.

On the contrary, I would’ve purchased $7k less TSLA and that has nearly tripled in value.

The more I think about this; the more I’m realizing there is really no ‘right’ answer.

 

[heltok]

Here's a summary from reddit:

• Specs: <100kWh usable battery, >900V system voltage, >6mi/kWh energy consumption, 0.17 cd value, 110in wheelbase, ~3858lbs gross vehicle weight, > 620mi range on a single charge
• The electric drivetrain outputs 150kW (201 horsepower) and achieves 95% efficiency from the battery energy to the wheels. (The power and efficiency numbers point to use of an axial flux motor, as developed by YASA which was acquired by MB.)
• The battery has an energy density close to 400 Wh/l. It has almost the same amount of energy as the EQS but is half the size and 30% lighter, so it can fit into a compact car.
• "The substantial increase in energy density comes in part from significant progress in the chemistry of the anodes. Their higher silicon content and advanced composition mean they can hold considerably more energy than commonly used anodes. Another feature that contributed to the impressive energy density is the high level of integration in the battery pack. This platform, developed jointly by Mercedes-Benz R&D and HPP, created more room for cells and helped reduce the overall weight. The separate compartment for the electrical and electronic (EE) components, called the OneBox, likewise made more room for cells, with added benefits for installation and removal. The OneBox also incorporates novel safety devices with energy efficient operations that consume significantly less energy than the equivalent component in a production EV."
• "Several more aspects of the battery design add to its exceptional efficiency. For instance, its lightweight lid was engineered jointly by Mercedes-AMG HPP and their chassis partners at Mercedes-Grand Prix. The lid is made from a unique, sustainable composite material derived from sugar-cane waste, reinforced with carbon fiber, as used in Formula 1. The battery also features active cell balancing, which means drawing the energy evenly from the cells while the car is driving – in effect, giving it greater stamina. Overall, the battery weighs around 1,091 lbs, including the OneBox."
• "The cooling plate is installed in the vehicle floor, enabling it to take advantage of the air flowing along the underside of the VISION EQXX. This is the most aerodynamically efficient way of keeping the electric drive unit cool under normal conditions, allowing the vehicle to gain about 20 kilometers (12 miles) of range in the most aerodynamic mode."
• The electric system that powers many of the ancillaries in the VISION EQXX draws additional energy from 117 solar cells on the roof. It was developed in collaboration with the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE – Europe's largest solar energy research institute. The net result of reducing the energy drain on the high-voltage system is an increase in range. On a single day and under ideal conditions, this can add up to 25 km (15 miles) of range on long-distance journeys. The solar energy is stored in a lightweight lithium-iron-phosphate battery, which supplies a climate blower, the lights, the infotainment system and other ancillaries."
• There is an active rear diffuser that deploys at higher speeds. It also had to weigh next-to-nothing and instantly retract in event of a rear-ender.
• "The VISION EQXX has a number of less visually obvious, but equally important, active and passive aerodynamic details, such as its small frontal area. It is actually less than that of today's CLA or even the vehicles from smart. And how many would notice that the rear track is 2 inches less than at the front?"
• "Currently the largest aluminum structural casting at Mercedes-Benz, BIONEQXX is the major structural component at the rear end of the VISION EQXX – the rear floor. The development engineers sought to use material only where necessary for structural function, i.e. where loads are exerted. Where there is no load there is no need for material. The resulting one-part casting has a web-like appearance with gaps where there is no need for structural elements." Gaps are filled with UBQ material, a plastic substitute made from landfill materials. "The resulting part indicates that this innovative engineering approach has the potential to achieve weight savings of between 15 and 20% compared to a conventionally produced component."
• Large aluminum castings with a web-like appearance are also used in the damper domes which accommodate the suspension components at the front of the car. They contribute to keeping weight to a minimum, saving around 9 lbs compared with conventional pressed domes.
• The MS1500 ultra-high strength martensitic has exceptional strength that offers excellent occupant protection in the event of a crash, while keeping weight to a minimum.
• "The doors of the VISION EQXX are made from a hybrid of CFRP and GFRP (carbon- and glass-fiber reinforced plastics) components with aluminum reinforcements. As well as the weight benefits, this design also achieves a careful balance of stiffness and ductility in the event of a crash. Meanwhile, a new polyamide foam reinforces the lower edge of the door and optimizes energy absorption in a side-on collision."
• "On the chassis, aluminum brake discs reduce the mass significantly compared with cast steel discs. As well as being completely corrosion-free, this brake system designed by Mercedes-Benz Advanced Engineering also reduces brake dust emissions by up to 90% thanks to an innovative coating. Meanwhile, new advanced glass-fiber-reinforced plastic springs developed in partnership with Rheinmetall Automotive remove further weight compared with conventional coil springs."
• The concept was developed in only 18 months through strong simulation tools and agile collaborative processes.

Was reminded of this very old post:

Why Apple doesn’t do “Concept Products” « counternotions

Why would a commercial entity like Apple produce a concept product? Apple is likely generating more concept products and visions than any other technology company for internal use. When Apple wanted to get into retail stores, for example, Jobs had Ron Johson build a fully-functioning, real-size prototype and tore it down at the last minute to rebuild a new one. Why didn’t Apple release the “concept store” to the then-deeply-skeptical press in order to “demonstrate visionary leadership”? In a similar situation Microsoft likely would have.

Product design, above all, is a bet. Apple understands this better than any other company. In iPhone: The bet Steve Jobs didn’t decline, I explained just what a huge bet the iPhone project was to Apple in 2005. It was a bet-the-company kind of bet. One that Nokia, which has sold hundreds of millions of phones over many years, never took. Neither did Microsoft. They would just as well release annual concept products to the public in order not to go through the pain of taking a bet.

Apple bet the company to single handedly change the industrial design of mobile devices, how we interact with them, the balance between carriers and manufacturers, mobile application vending, etc. Indeed, it simply redefined what a mobile device is to become. Apple did this not with a concept product, but by betting its own billions on a shipping product. This, of course, is nothing new to the company that also gave us Apple II, Macintosh, iMac and iPod…all without concept products.

Doesn’t Apple get it? Aren’t concept products the ultimate sign of getting and shaping the future?

Real artists ship, dabblers create concept products

Pretenders don’t quite understand that design is born of constraints. Real-life constraints, be they tangible or cognitive: Battery-life impacts every other aspect of the iPhone design — hardware and software alike. Screen resolution affects font, icon and UI design. The thickness of a fingertip limits direct, gestural manipulation of on-screen objects. Lack of a physical keyboard and WIMP controls create an unfamiliar mental map of the device. The iPhone design is a bet that solutions to constraints like these can be seamlessly molded into a unified product that will sell. Not a concept. Not a vision. A product that sells.

It turns out that when capable designers are given real constraintsfor real products they can end up creating great results. In Apple’s case, groundbreaking products like the iMac, the iPod and the iPhone. Constraints have a wonderful way of focusing the mind on the fundamentals, whereas concept products can often have the opposite affect.

Concept products are like essays, musings in 3D. They are incomplete promises. Shipping products, by contrast, are brutally honest deliveries. You get what’s delivered. They live and die by their own design constraints. To the extent they are successful, they do advance the art and science of design and manufacturing by exposing the balance between fantasy and capability.


I bolded some parts to highlight that Elon is a betting man, willing to bet the company. That’s why Tesla succeeded. Legacy companies are so risk adverse that they would rather go bankrupt slowly than risk going bankrupt quickly with a possibility to survive. This post could have been written about Tesla. What concepts have Tesla done and not followed through? Sure some products have been delayed as their growth have consumed all batteries, but do we really think Roadster2, Teslabot etc will never happen?

 

[Ogre]

I would argue that Tesla has been worth more than all the ACCESSIBLE Bitcoin in the world for a while now.. ;-)

I know I have many shekels not accessible, although I am confident I will get to them. I have ex-colleagues with 10x and 100x that amount in similar positions who are putting signifiant resources into their recovery.

Recent estimates are that over 20% of all currently mined bitcoin will NEVER be recovered or return to circulation or transfer. I doubt whoever runs bitcoin will decide to make some change and it will be DECADES till bitcoin might take some action on in-active tokens, but I put that chance at low. At current mining speeds we're WELL into the 22ND CENTURY (so past 2100) before all might be mined (well, unless quantum computing somehow takes everything to a different level - which it will - and it might also break all the encryption at the same time) so i'm putting the current value of the current ACCESSIBLE bitcoin at at LEAST 200B less than the current "market cap" would indicate

The amount of bitcoin owned by Satoshi alone is quite huge and unlikely to ever resurface.

 

[Singuy]

One of the rare times I disagree with you.... I've been trying to get into the beta program since it started. So far nothing despite a perfect safety score and paying for FSD 2.5 YEARS ago. When we recently bought our 7th Tesla (Model Y this time) I did NOT get FSD. I love Elon, but he is not tricking me again. If I ever get FSD to download to my Model S, and I love it, then I might reconsider. This time it's - "Show me the money/FSD!" before I pay for it.

And you are on HW 2.5 right with all the camera upgrades? So far everyone I know have received the FSD beta with 98+ but they are on 3/Y.

 

[FireMedic]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479966918652018688

 

[MXWing]

I thought we could’ve rolled it into the loan and did consider it.

However, in California our vehicle registration fees are based on the purchase price the vehicle so we chose to not do that…that has sort of blown up in my face since the cost of FSD has gone up 30% since we bought the car and now I’m considering purchasing it for 10-12k.

On the contrary, I would’ve purchased $7k less TSLA and that has nearly tripled in value.

The more I think about this; the more I’m realizing there is really no ‘right’ answer.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479966918652018688

Well.. deferred revenue is still money in your pocket that helps your free cash flow and bottom line.

It is always in Tesla's interest to get 10K (soon 12K) upfront than a $200 monthly stream.

If Elon wants to give California's excessive taxation the finger, offering a post purchase financed FSD option would be the way to go.

 

[ZeApelido]

One of the rare times I disagree with you.... I've been trying to get into the beta program since it started. So far nothing despite a perfect safety score and paying for FSD 2.5 YEARS ago. When we recently bought our 7th Tesla (Model Y this time) I did NOT get FSD. I love Elon, but he is not tricking me again. If I ever get FSD to download to my Model S, and I love it, then I might reconsider. This time it's - "Show me the money/FSD!" before I pay for it.

Alpha male M.D.s required to get a 110 safety score.

 

[jw934]

From Twitter : Perhaps this is to incentivize subscription?

in 3Q call, In response to the question: how has FSD take rate changed since the introduction of monthly subscription?
Zack said : >> we're unable to detect a change in the upfront take rate of FSD when people purchase cars. . . I think what we've seen so far on FSD subscription is not terribly relevant. . . . the most economical way for a customer to enjoy the features of full self-driving is through purchasing it upfront and rolling it through their financing.

So the answer is that the opposite is true, the subscription rate increase Elon announced quickly after his first tweet is to entice more FSD purchases before the 12K takes effect.