Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[heltok]

I realized one cool thing that I didn’t consider at AI day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480530733433344007

When Tesla are using auto-labelling, they use multiple drives at the same area to label lane markings etc to generate the labels, ie the outputs. Then they can train the neural network using raw video from snowy drives where the lane markings are very diffucult to see. This is much better than using human labeled images where the human labeler will struggle to see the lane lines. The neural network will become superhuman at figuring out where the lane lines should be.

 

[woodisgood]

Remember, Hertz Monday wasn't just about Hertz - it also followed the MS upgrade to 1200 over that weekend.

View attachment 754322

Interesting that he quantifies $618/1300 as the core auto business.

 

[WattsHappening]

I don’t think their lockup period was 6 months at least not for the ex officers and directors, I seem to recall it was closer to 90 days. this number has varied greatly in the past few years. I put the question out there this morning but haven’t received an answer yet, but as well many exec did sell in the IPO so he, others may have sold a fair bit of stock last year. Also, the officers and directors held very little stock, like 1% at the IPO so it wouldn’t move anything much at all. It’s when Amazon (%20+ post IPO), Ford (10%) and the other either trust or holdng companies want to sell that the big moves may happen, that won’t happen till ~May 22.

Thanks. But I wasn't suggesting him selling his shares was the issue. Rather, I was wondering whether his decision to leave now rather than wait for his 6 month lockup period ended was somehow related to him being worried about the stock price dropping between now and then. If it turns out him leaving now allows him to sell his shares sooner, that would be VERY CONCERNING to me as a shareholder.

 

[geometro]

Rates go up so cash flows in the future count for less... so now analysts are realizing that TSLA is going to have higher CFs in the future so even with higher rates, their NPV is higher than when rates were low.

 

[gabeincal]

Thanks for your - as usual - very interesting & helpful post; @Artful Dodger

While I understand how a sold put for $1K, and how a $1 put would drop the "Average" Max pain number. Can someone explain how the $1 put impacts margin requirements ?

ie Selling a $1,000 Put for Jan 21/22 right now is pays me approximately a $25 premium X 100 = $2500, but locks in $100K of my margin less the $2500 premium = margin reduced by $97,500. So if I sold a $1 PUT, I would get $1.00 (.01 X 100), but what impact would that have on margin, and is there any impact to Max pain beyond dropping the average by throwing a $1 number into the mix ?

I think it would only lock $40k - ish as that's the maintenance requirement for TSLA nowadays. Semantics, but thought I should raise it...

 

[Boomer19]

Wait till Cybertruck, sadly I think Tesla will be in production hell a 2nd time.. certainly some of their learing, experience and failures can be corrected and transferred, but I think it’s going to be slow going and take many corrections along the way. When indeed it ever does begin.

on another note, my neighbor down the street just got his Rivian and I gotta say, up close it does look pretty sweet. Fit and finish seems good, external materials at least, the shape and roundness of all corners is a bit unusual and I can’t put my finger on what it reminds me of? colored Jelly Belly’s? Some sort of childhood toy? iPhone? . It IS that bubble gum blue color (I had an Audi RS4 back in the 90’s that color so it holds a special place) haven’t asked for a drive yet though, we’re neighbor neighbor neighbors so I would probably have to bring donuts first.. ;-)

pretty sure they’ll figure out how to deliver CT efficiently at good margins, and it’ll be a great product.

 

[MC3OZ]

How will the 4680 Model Y perform identically to the 2170? It is slated to be 200 kg (440 lbs) lighter. Are you suggesting they will make changes in tires and suspension and the motor to back out the gains in handling and acceleration removing that much weight would add?

Tesla will match it up as close as possible, handling is one area where less weight, and more centrally located weight may help.

Tesla can software limit acceleration, I think there is a limit to what software can do to impact on handling, essentially not enough to close the gap in any meaningful way.

I do think there is a reason why Model Y is the first car to get 4680s, that is partially to do with projected production volumes. But also the handling dynamics, efficiency, and economics.

Move all Model Ys to 4680, and that frees up 2170 for some other purpose.

The Semi is one possibility, because it doesn't look like the kind of model that can have a structural battery pack, The batteries look like they are carried as freight. Weight is also important in the Semi, weight would be one reason why 4680 would make more sense.

Regardless, Tesla isn't going to throw away a pile of 2170s, and there will be a limit on how past Panasonic can cutover lines.

 

[petit_bateau]

Thanks. But I wasn't suggesting him selling his shares was the issue. Rather, I was wondering whether his decision to leave now rather than wait for his 6 month lockup period ended was somehow related to him being worried about the stock price dropping between now and then. If it turns out him leaving now allows him to sell his shares sooner, that would be VERY CONCERNING to me as a shareholder.

Until one knows better it is sensible to cut the individual some slack, and recall that the individual is a person. I certainly don't know what is going on in his/her own life outside of the workplace. Medical issues, family issues, or quite a lot of personal issues that are not related to the prospects for the employer might be relevant. So by all means prick up the ears and be alert for this being more than just one individual pulling the ejection handle, and I am as cynical as the next observer - but also remember we are dealing with real humans here.

 

[Speedr117]

I think Gary Black uses the term "Brand Taint":

GM finally bends the knee to California’s authority to set vehicle pollution rules

GM backed Trump’s fight with California and lost.

www.theverge.com

Really shows their true colors...still, despite all the bluster!

 

[RobDickinson]

Its nice of GM to allow California to have breathable air...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Remember, Hertz Monday wasn't just about Hertz - it also followed the MS upgrade to 1200 over that weekend.

View attachment 754322
View attachment 754331

Oh that's nice...maybe Jonas finally gets it.

(Goes and look at his EPS estimate for 2022 that is $8.84............................nope, Jonas still doesn't get it )

 

[Ogre]

I think Gary Black uses the term "Brand Taint":

GM finally bends the knee to California’s authority to set vehicle pollution rules

GM backed Trump’s fight with California and lost.

www.theverge.com

Really shows their true colors...still, despite all the bluster!

I think it’s fair to say GM was leading the lawsuit against clean air.

 

[RobDickinson]

Jonas completely missing the tesla energy ramp in 2022.

 

[Thumper]

So Gary Black was close to accurate when he used the term “brand taint” to describe GM. He was only a little in front of correct terminology.

 

[Phobi]

Supply you say? Shortage? Lithium?! If only I knew this before…

 

[MXWing]

Thanks for your - as usual - very interesting & helpful post; @Artful Dodger

While I understand how a sold put for $1K, and how a $1 put would drop the "Average" Max pain number. Can someone explain how the $1 put impacts margin requirements ?

ie Selling a $1,000 Put for Jan 21/22 right now is pays me approximately a $25 premium X 100 = $2500, but locks in $100K of my margin less the $2500 premium = margin reduced by $97,500. So if I sold a $1 PUT, I would get $1.00 (.01 X 100), but what impact would that have on margin, and is there any impact to Max pain beyond dropping the average by throwing a $1 number into the mix ?

Not sure if you want to be asking these kind of questions.

There's a lot of variables on margin impact:
How much cash you have
What is your portfolio makeup and concentration
What is the volatility of the market
What are you broker margin requirements
Standard margin or portfolio margin

 

[The Accountant]

Oh that's nice...maybe Jonas finally gets it.

(Goes and look at his EPS estimate for 2022 that is $8.84............................nope, Jonas still doesn't get it )

This is why I expect the stock to explode to $1,800 by year-end.
Jonas has a $1,300 price target with a 2022 non-GAAP EPS of $8.84. I have $14.15 (60% higher).
I will post details of my $14.15 eps number tomorrow and you will see that it looks to be an easy lay-up for Tesla.
Although the $14.15 is my base case, I would say it is in the lower range of base case ranges. . . .it's easy to argue for a higher number.
Later this year, as each Qtr passes, Jonas will realize his EPS is sorely under-estimated and he will raise his PT at least 2 times in 2022.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This is why I expect the stock to explode to $1,800 by year-end.
Jonas has a $1,300 price target with an 2022 non-GAAP EPS of $8.84. I have $14.15 (60% higher).
I will post details of my $14.15 eps number tomorrow and you will see that it looks to be an easy lay-up for Tesla.
Although the $14.15 is my base case, I would say it is in the lower range of base case ranges. . . .it's easy to argue for a higher number.
Later this year, as each Qtr passes, Jonas will realize his EPS is sorely under-estimated and he will raise his PT at least 2 times in 2022.

I’m slightly higher than you for 2022 EPS but that’s because you’re more cautious than I am on margin expansion. Good to be cautious with a solid base case.

Of course if Tesla manages to actually release FSD to the masses this year, that EPS instantly goes up to like $17-18 just from all the deferred revenue sitting on the side currently . I can see a number of ways the stock gets all the way up to 1800-2000 this year

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 20:04 EST: Tesla Is Miles Ahead Of Others in the EV Race, This Analyst Says. The Stock Is Rallying.

Excerpts:

...On Monday evening, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas took his Tesla (ticker: TSLA) price target to $1,300 a share from $1,200. He maintained his Buy rating...

...“Think of the EV race as a marathon,” wrote Jonas. “Tesla is in the lead at mile number 21. Everybody else is at mile 2 or still tying their shoes.” What’s more, Jonas believes recent deliveries show Tesla is getting stronger as the marathon wears on...

 

[Ogre]

Barron's - 20:04 EST: Tesla Is Miles Ahead Of Others in the EV Race, This Analyst Says. The Stock Is Rallying.

Excerpts:

...On Monday evening, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas took his Tesla (ticker: TSLA) price target to $1,300 a share from $1,200. He maintained his Buy rating...

...“Think of the EV race as a marathon,” wrote Jonas. “Tesla is in the lead at mile number 21. Everybody else is at mile 2 or still tying their shoes.” What’s more, Jonas believes recent deliveries show Tesla is getting stronger as the marathon wears on...

I think GM was on about mile 5 when their pants caught on fire. They had to go all the way back to the locker room and change their shorts. Now they are eyeballing a pair of steel toed boots for the rest of the race. They’ll get back into things right after they swing by the timing booth to give the officials a bit of cash to ensure “timings are fair”.