Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Hmm...macro dump taking Tesla with it down $16 in 10 minutes.

TSLA moved 6x the NASDAQ-100 (NDX) macros:

Somebody is very, very afraid of this beast...

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

TSLA moved 6x the NASDAQ-100 (NDX) macros:

View attachment 754534

Somebody is very, very afraid of this beast...

Cheers!

This just adds support to my Big Boing theory for creation of a new financial universe.

Let's see how tight the WS players will wind this spring before Jack pops out of the box. (again)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Somebody is very, very afraid of this beast...

Cheers!

Fine with me. I'm kinda stuck babysitting some put spreads until the big pop, so not making any new money off this week's dips, but ain't worried.

The fear is palpable, and we're just a hair too far out for true megaFOMO to eat up these shenanigans. Traders gotta eat too I guess!

 

[hoang51]

I'll go on the record as saying, TODAY is not the day that Tech stocks are "bottoming" for this current pull back. I think we have 1-2 more 'oh sh..t" days to come.

I am also on the same side as you are. It looks like it was a dead bounce yesterday. I bailed out on my short term buys on TSLA when I saw the chance in aftermarket yesterday for a small profit. I'm now waiting TSLA for sub $1k, preferably sub $900 if it ever makes it there from now until 1/21/22. I'm going to sit on the sidelines patiently this time.

 

[stealthyc]

Agreed. I think it's "single stack" which is the enabling milestone. And yes, v11.x in Q1 may be sufficient to release significant FSD deferred revenue.

Add in the ~$2B deferred revenue from Tesla's "Valuation Allowance" and Q1 could surprise to the upside.

Cheers!

Single stack is somewhat meaningless when it comes to something like fsd recognition. It simply means that there is a single "program" executing the driving for both highway and city streets, vs two separate "programs". What matters is simply whether or not the features as advertised exist and are available for everyone. As a beta tester I'm highly skeptical of any wide release any time soon, even with v11. Elon has a habit of hyping up various releases as "step changes". They do improve, no doubt about that, but in my opinion the distance remaining to something that works well enough for wide release is farther than any previous "step change" has provided. I'm happy to be proven wrong though.

 

[StealthP3D]

My 3/18 1500C are down 70% but if they think they can faze me when I have until March, they have another thought coming. I'm not selling until they are up at least 70%, unless they expire worthless first. Let's see how this one goes after earnings.

I've found it's to the call holders' advantage to not make ultimatums in advance (like not selling until up 70%, etc.). The strategy should be a moving one that is revisited regularly based upon new information. You want to maximize the return and minimize the risk in order to maximize the returns of your portfolio as a whole. An ultimatum is like using the rear-view mirror to make trades. Always make the decision using all available information.

 

[StealthP3D]

I am also on the same side as you are. It looks like it was a dead bounce yesterday. I bailed out on my short term buys on TSLA when I saw the chance in aftermarket yesterday for a small profit. I'm now waiting TSLA for sub $1k, preferably sub $900 if it ever makes it there from now until 1/21/22. I'm going to sit on the sidelines patiently this time.

That's not what it looks like to me. And it's too soon to call it a dead cat bounce.

 

[henchman24]

If Tesla was a basketball player ....we would say it has some good hops.
$10 $15 dollar swings in a minute?

Seems there is a strong battle waiting for a breakout either way depending on what Powell says today. I'd imagine that even if Tesla breaks out up, there will be a battle to push down later in the week to hold 1100 or at least under 1150 (CPI data should help that cause). IMO today and tomorrow will have major swings both ways.

 

[lafrisbee]

The main reason why Pierre Ferragu is not super bullish on robotaxis is that he thinks Tesla will need to work too hard to convince customers to book a robotaxi and will instead choose to take a driven Uber. I found this surprising as there a great deal of early adopters in the world that will jump at the chance imo. Do the non super bulls here agree? Most non super bulls tend to think that FSD won't be ready in the next 5 years.

Pierre brought up, but then he totally whiffed on reality. Uber or Lyft? the consumer wants to know one thing first, PRICE. ANd both gathered speed through word of mouth. If one is better than the other in the eyes of the users they will spread the word.
You are right, the novelty of a "driverless" vehicle will get more than enough buts in the seats to seed the "taxi" market.
The other aspect which was not mentioned, or not strongly enough was how the best butthole is no butthole. A driverless car is buttholeless. The unknown when getting a ride in a taxi is what butthole is going to be in the car with you driving. Even ignoring them takes negative energy. Having them take the wrong path intentionally or not is a negative. His or her smell is a negative. Not being able to talk to your friends in the vehicle in an unguarded manner makes it a negative.
Even things like picking your nose...
No SIr.
A driverless Taxi will be so quickly adopted by society that when the Taxi driver comes to work one day he will take a Robo-taxi. And when they give him his pink slip he will take a robotaxi to the bar to keep the buzz he got going before work going.
Oh and Money, it takes a very small decrease in price to dramatically shift the commodities market. We ain't talking perfume or sunglasses. Money is a prime discriminator.
So within minutes of getting a robo-taxi network going it will be adopted by the public.

 

[canoemore]

This dead cat is walking.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Seems there is a strong battle waiting for a breakout either way depending on what Powell says today. I'd imagine that even if Tesla breaks out up, there will be a battle to push down later in the week to hold 1100 or at least under 1150 (CPI data should help that cause). IMO today and tomorrow will have major swings both ways.

Feels to me like Powell has been building up dry powder the last month or two with comments leaning toward quicker tightening.

As we know, they have no real desire to deleverage, so I take those few mildly shocking comments made with SP509 at ATH as Powell creating space to get loose if covid causes more problems. Which it has.

I'm predicting roses and gasoline from today's comments.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The main reason why Pierre Ferragu is not super bullish on robotaxis is that he thinks Tesla will need to work too hard to convince customers to book a robotaxi and will instead choose to take a driven Uber. I found this surprising as there a great deal of early adopters in the world that will jump at the chance imo. Do the non super bulls here agree? Most non super bulls tend to think that FSD won't be ready in the next 5 years.

After using FSD Beta for a while, and hearing Elon describe the under the hood engineering changes they are currently making (FSD AP improvements in upcoming v11 from Lex Fridman interview), I am skeptical of robotaxi for the foreseeable future. I don’t even believe the current shipping hardware is sufficient. They will have to add more cameras to handle 90 degree left/right views at intersections, and maybe faster AI chips.

But TSLA will do fine, growing at 70% YoY without robotaxi. I really don’t see why people think Tesla needs it.

 

[Nocturnal]

Senator Toomey "please stop trying to shut off my coal money FED. Thx"

 

[betstarship]

Global Risks report is out by WEF: all hands on board for averting climate change.

https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2022.pdf

- "After a contraction of 3.1% in 2020, global economic growth is expected to reach 5.9% in 2021 and slow to 4.9% in 2022."
- "A growing share of the US$100 trillion bond market is mobilized for climate change solutions, and it is expected to reach the milestone of US$1 trillion in annual issuances by 2022."
- "Up to 8.5 million jobs in the energy sector (almost 30%) could be lost in fossil fuels and nuclear energy by 2050, although with re-skilling up to 40 million new jobs could be created, mostly in renewables."
- "Businesses perceived aslagging, or as complicit in slowing down climate action,76 could lose consumer and investor confidence and face additionalstate intervention and liability risk through judicial action.77 Overall, businesses could also lose out on opportunities to investin net zero technologies and the skilled professionals of the future,78 impacting their long-term viability."

The section on the space industry is entirely inspiring.

 

[UncaNed]

That would have worked in the 1950s but now almost all gas stations are a convenience store plus a few pumps. No place to clean cars.

Great thought!!, I'd LOVE IT if some superchargers in very high traffic areas had a way you could have your car cleaned- even detailed- while you charge. You could pay for a complete detailing - or any of a series of 10 - 15 minute service items that you'd get done over a series of charging sessions over time at stations equipped to offer that service, even if it is over a period of a year or two.

 

[UncaNed]

Drew did said specifically that it is the anode which is the limiting factor for maximum charge rate. So tabless electrodes may not make a difference there.

However, I suspect Drew was referring to the peak charge rate, and not the sustained charge rate (limit imposed due to heating of the cells. In that case, it may be possible to charge 2170s just as fast as 4680s by spending more on the cooling equipment for the older cells.

Either way, Tesla clearly is up to 300 KW charge rate on its full sized car packs. That's plenty, offering 200 mile range boost in 15 min. Faster charging speeds beyond that won't get you back on the road any faster; you still need a "bio-break".

Cheers!

I agree, but better yet if it wasn't a MANDATORY break. Faster charging is still better.

Edit- and I'm sure if they make it faster, Tesla will do it right so it's works trouble-free.

 

[Joe F]

As this is the Investor Discussions thread of TMC, I'll add my single post as to why I feel FSD is an important feature for _my_ owning a Tesla, and part of my investment thesis, and purchased FSD 5 years ago, even though my model S still does not have the cameras (yet) to even support the beta version.

Imagine having a medical emergency and having a FSD enabled Tesla drive you to the closest hospital and announce over the speaker (or from all automatically opened windows and the sound system for older cars without an outside speaker) that the driver is in need of medical attention. What's that worth? Priceless, to me.

While I don't know if Tesla envisions adding such a feature to FSD, to me, it seems a simple addition to the appeal of FSD.

Here's a quick Google search that shows the number of crashes, and lives, that could have been potentially saved given technology that could have made a difference.

 

[Rarity]

Pierre brought up, but then he totally whiffed on reality. Uber or Lyft? the consumer wants to know one thing first, PRICE. ANd both gathered speed through word of mouth. If one is better than the other in the eyes of the users they will spread the word.

All else equal, marginal cost is the discriminator. The company with the lowest marginal cost can lower its price until, over time, its competitors exit the business as they are unable to maintain sufficient scale. Many consumers are price sensitive, but others may not be. In the past, Tesla did a great business with price insensitive folks. So getting to a good point may take a long time.

I believe that Tesla will have to run this experiment in order to know the difficulties. It may take a few years for Tesla to figure it out or go another path.

 

[2daMoon]

Okay, today's TSLA action so far clearly needs a kick start and we know what has worked in the past.

So, @Prunesquallor should take a bike ride, and @Krugerrand needs to take @Unpilot for a walk.

As for me, I'm going to go work on MTB trail.

If we all pull together, perhaps this will influence the SP to migrate in an upwards direction more consistently for the rest of the day.

Let's GO!

 

[MXWing]

Interesting. Tesla website updated to either be taking or soon to be taking DOGE.