Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Everything you need to know about California's plan to slash solar incentives

Want to go solar, or already have rooftop panels? Here's how proposed changes would affect you.

www.latimes.com

Here is a link to send a message to Gov Newsom, please do. I intend to be at the protest Thur!

The sun belongs to everyone, not the utilities.

.@GavinNewsom: The CPUC's solar proposal is too extreme. The sun belongs to everyone, not the utilities. #KeepSolarGrowing and #SaveSolar.

solarrights.org

This is a huge deal and everyone should voice their opinion as it can destroy the solar market in CA and elsewhere.

I think it's good to send messages to your Gov. but I don't think he is required to pass the comments onto the body responsible for making the rules and regulating utilities rate schedules, the California Public Utilities Commision. The Gov. appoints the commission members, but it is for six-year terms.

While the Governor is swayed by general public sentiment and sheer numbers, the CPUC must follow more of a legal framework and comments are weighed in a more legalistic framework. So, if you raise legal issues about changing the rates after the fact, complying with global warming mandates,, etc. it forces the lawyers to consider the legal ramifications (if they do their jobs properly) because your comments will remain on the public record long after the decision is made. Your comments become a legal part of the decision.

You can submit comments to the CPUC four different ways:

https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-website/divisions/news-and-outreach/documents/pao/publiccomments_0821.pdf

 

[hoang51]

That's not what it looks like to me. And it's too soon to call it a dead cat bounce.

I might be wrong and you would be right. For me, I see that there's definitely manipulation with TSLA and I'm going to go along with it and try to profit from it rather than HODL. Other tech stocks got hammered down and I don't want to get caught up with the down trend similar to last year. I'm still holding core TSLA shares for long term, but my play money is now playing the waiting game.

 

[MD70]

“On and on the list goes: in the nineties a car that could hit 60 MPH in four seconds was called a “Lamborghini” and cost $250,000. Today that’s a base model Tesla that holds five people, costs five times less, never needs an oil change, and costs about eight bucks to fill up with 360 miles of electricity.”

Inflation – Should We Be Worried?

I’ve been writing about money for almost eleven years now, and in that time the world has become an immensely richer place. Here in the US, our economy has grown by about 25% even after inflation, …

www.mrmoneymustache.com

A long article but the quote stood out to me as to why even in a high inflation environment Tesla has the advantage.

 

[Prunesquallor]

More Berlin Drama.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480899684604559362

 

[tivoboy]

I might be wrong and you would be right. For me, I see that there's definitely manipulation with TSLA and I'm going to go along with it and try to profit from it rather than HODL. Other tech stocks got hammered down and I don't want to get caught up with the down trend similar to last year. I'm still holding core TSLA shares for long term, but my play money is now playing the waiting game.

With $TSLA, recognizing that there is CLEAR manipulation is the first step toward making real predictable profits. Unless one bought at $20 or $100 and really just wants to HODL.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I'll go on the record as saying, TODAY is not the day that Tech stocks are "bottoming" for this current pull back. I think we have 1-2 more 'oh sh..t" days to come.

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen you call a firm bottom. Every time we hit one of your targets, you readjust them lower.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

More Berlin Drama.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480899684604559362

As for as I can tell from reading on the water dispute is that it won't hold up Tesla getting approval. The water dispute and permit approval are completely separate things.

Obviously if the ruling on the water dispute doesn't go in Tesla favor then that creates a lot of questions. Seeing how the water dispute is actually the German official's fault, I could see Tesla actually filing a complaint against the German government. The whole thing could get incredibly messy based on that ruling.

 

[StealthP3D]

I might be wrong and you would be right. For me, I see that there's definitely manipulation with TSLA and I'm going to go along with it and try to profit from it rather than HODL. Other tech stocks got hammered down and I don't want to get caught up with the down trend similar to last year. I'm still holding core TSLA shares for long term, but my play money is now playing the waiting game.

There's nothing wrong with profiting from manipulation. In fact, done successfully, it hurts the manipulators. But the trouble is identifying the timing and direction the manipulation will take it. And those effects must be layered upon the natural trading driven by real news and results as well as the natural volatility and market mood swings. The manipulators have deep pockets and abilities that regular investors or traders lack. So, you are really playing a guessing game and, when done poorly, it helps the manipulators play their game. It's how they profit.

There's a reason why dead investors have higher returns than active investors. This is literally true. And that's with the whole gamut of public companies. A company like TSLA, with growth like most of us expect over the next few years, will make it even harder to match, let alone beat, returns from holding. With taxable accounts it's a complete fool's game and with tax deferred accounts it's still pretty hard to come out ahead in the long term. Most investors can't even be honest with themselves about their true returns with their trading accounts. The nature of the human brain is to remember your wins and quietly forget your losses or structure the thinking about them to turn their losses into non-issues (because it was just a potential profit that was lost, not an actual tax loss).

But good luck, it's your money!

 

[FireMedic]

As much as I agree that there are manipulations and shenanigans affecting TSLA. My google is performing nearly identically. It’s the only other stock worth holding afaic…other than the tech company from which my wife receives options. Only holding that because they match contributions.

Google is good company to keep. Just sayin. And, as we know aapl now wants TSLA to be a considered a peer in regards to valuation. This is all very positive imho.

 

[hoang51]

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen you call a firm bottom. Every time we hit one of your targets, you readjust them lower.

It's an art of guessing where the market maker is aiming for. Evidently from the stock charts, it is dynamic. So either we go with the flow or bag holding with inexperience.

 

[winfield100]

OT somewhat
there is and was bicycle sharing

there is and was electric scooter sharing

2 examples of EV sharing, (with a nod to Tesla perhaps 2/3 of way thru video as near Harris Ranch?)

1st has 7 EV’s, 2nd has 2 EV’s (it’s a beginning..)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480602841177739265

 

[insaneoctane]

I wonder if I am correct in my assumption that a stand alone SC Business relying mainly on Solar would be profitable in and of itself? Or would it only be worthwhile because of the increase in traffic to the main business?
My main focus would be how many times would a solar battery and panel set up have to be filled and drained for it to pay for itself? a few variables there.
Initial capital cost.

Price per Kw. variables according to source and/or source costs. People now pay a "feel good" premium to buy Solar-produced electricity even though it is cheaper) Also overnight electricity is often cheaper from the local company, but all of them have a plan where you can buy electricity cheaper at some time of the day. The batteries could be topped off at night for the morning rush hour. The Sun helps during the day...

number of transactions in a day. Every KW that goes through the batteries is going to create positive $.
Incomplete as my thinking is, it should be profitable.

In Southern California with SCE Utility....energy gets most expensive after solar production runs low (around 4pm). My TOU offers lowest price of $0.20/kWh and then $0.49/kWh after my Solar stops producing. This is the cheapest (?!?) plan aimed at EV owners. It's energy pricing terrorism and in this environment, a charging station would need HUGE capital expenditures on battery storage or close your station at 4pm when power gets expensive.

 

[tivoboy]

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen you call a firm bottom. Every time we hit one of your targets, you readjust them lower.

Remember, SWING trader, not DAY trader.. ;-)

 

[StealthP3D]

With $TSLA, recognizing that there is CLEAR manipulation is the first step toward making real predictable profits. Unless one bought at $20 or $100 and really just wants to HODL.

The decision to hold or sell should not depend upon your cost basis (except for tax considerations). Because a holder today can choose to sell on moment's notice, it becomes no different from someone who just bought. The price you paid for an asset only matters from a tax perspective and yet the human mind likes to play games with that. Your brain will tell you, "I'm so far up, who cares if it goes down a little bit" whereas someone's brain who just purchased will tell them to watch the price closely because they want their recent buy to be in the black. I get that, I'm not immune to it but it is something to be aware of.

The most damaging way this impacts novice (and experienced) investors is by encouraging them to hold a stock they have identified as a dog until it reaches their purchase price. This is dumb. If new information (or a new insight) causes you to dislike a holding you have, just dump it for a loss immediately. An exception can be made if you think it's temporarily over-sold but use caution here because if you have recently identified it as a dog, chances are others are not far behind. And none of this should be interpreted to mean you can determine the dogs from the winners by the share price movements.

 

[insaneoctane]

... we can certainly all turn it off during the summer for a day and watch how fast that impacts the grid. In fact the solar customers ironically have huge leverage if they do a solar shut out with 12,000 MW on line. PGE loves to turn off power I wonder how they would feel if we all cut our solar? ...

Brilliant. I'd participate in sending this message!

 

[StealthP3D]

It's an art of guessing where the market maker is aiming for. Evidently from the stock charts, it is dynamic. So either we go with the flow or bag holding with inexperience.

Don't you think "bag holding" is an odd way to refer to those of us holding TSLA?

Typically, I only see that term applied to companies that crash and burn when it is learned their business results do not stand up to scrutiny.

 

[tivoboy]

The most damaging way this impacts novice (and experienced) investors is by encouraging them to hold a stock they have identified as a dog until it reaches their purchase price. This is dumb. If new information (or a new insight) causes you to dislike a holding you have, just dump it for a loss immediately. An exception can be made if you think it's temporarily over-sold but use caution here because if you have recently identified it as a dog, chances are others are not far behind. And none of this should be interpreted to mean you can determine the dogs from the winners by the share price movements.

This is one of the hardest things for even the most seasoned investors to do and stIck to. Even with my record (I won’t repeat it for fear of being banned) but I know my RETURN is even better because I lose LESS on the 1-2 phalanges that are wrong, vs. the 8+ phalanges that are right. There are many market/trading adages that try and encompass/encourage/guide this. “First loss is best loss”.. It’s harder to sell a loser than a winner. FOMO is stronger than FOLE.. and others. I would rather have sold something at 100-300% return and missed another 100% THAN just hold more than a couple positions out of 10 down 50%. “Each man must decide for himself”. (Insert he/she/him/her/they/them as desired into this WWII quote) how they focus on it. But, certainly if your thesis is/was wrong and it really starts to go against you, just GET out and give yourself time to re-asses and rebuild your thesis.

One of the ways to make these moves more palatable is to ALSO think of actual loses and ASSETS to be used to pay less in taxes on GAINS. Depending on where the asset is custodIaned its never really a TOTAL loss.

 

[insaneoctane]

More Berlin Drama.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480899684604559362

Regardless of the true instigators, Germany is getting a black eye for these delays. Perception is reality.

 

[StealthP3D]

Brilliant. I'd participate in sending this message!

Read the agreement you signed when you applied for a permit to connect your solar to the grid. I'm betting it probably has language that prohibits the disconnection of your generation simply to send a message or conspiring to wreak havoc on the grid. If it doesn't, it's only because the utilities lawyers were not doing their job very well (protecting the utility).

That's not to say it couldn't be done anyway.

 

[tivoboy]

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen you call a firm bottom. Every time we hit one of your targets, you readjust them lower.

But I DO call firm tops and firm levels we’ll hit and through that, prices I’ll sell at, scale in or out at. ;-). Trust me, when I’m going to push in 7 figures, you’ll know it.