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Homer Changes his 2022 Price Target
I mentioned my Non-GAAP EPS above at $14.15. My GAAP EPS is now at $12.87.
Financial sites like Market Watch, Yahoo Finance, etc use GAAP EPS (not Non-GAAP)

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First, thanks for the detailed numbers and explanations you are providing. When I read your posts I feel smarter for having done so.

In July 2021 you predicted 2022 at $1,700 and additional prices out to 2026. Do you anticipate bumping the post-2022 numbers at some point?
 
I just had my "recall" for the S frunk latch "serviced." Handed the tech my FOB, less than 30 seconds later he handed it back. Done.

Simply checking that the hood actually latched after releasing the first lock was all it took to verify the car was not affected by an improperly aligned secondary latch. I didn't ask, but can't imagine it would not have taken more than a few minutes to loosen a few bolts, move the latch and retighten the bolts.

Speaking of bolts, how's that GM Bolt battery recall going, Mary?
 
In Southern California with SCE Utility....energy gets most expensive after solar production runs low (around 4pm). My TOU offers lowest price of $0.20/kWh and then $0.49/kWh after my Solar stops producing. This is the cheapest (?!?) plan aimed at EV owners. It's energy pricing terrorism and in this environment, a charging station would need HUGE capital expenditures on battery storage or close your station at 4pm when power gets expensive.
These are the kinds of things that would need to be figured out.... especially as Power Companies can change their rates at any time they want(?).
 
This will increase Austin production capacity from 250k-300k/ year to 500k+ / year. (See math below)

The big question is… is this the 8kT press for the Cybertruck or are they increasing capacity for Model Y/ Model 3


Based on about 75% utilization a Gigapress can crank out about 250,000 assemblies per year.

Each vehicle needs a front and rear assembly and there are currently 3 Gigapresses in Austin.

So each pair of Gigapresses produces 250k vehicles, with 4 of them, they can produce 500k/ year.
 
All else equal, marginal cost is the discriminator. The company with the lowest marginal cost can lower its price until, over time, its competitors exit the business as they are unable to maintain sufficient scale. Many consumers are price sensitive, but others may not be. In the past, Tesla did a great business with price insensitive folks. So getting to a good point may take a long time.

I believe that Tesla will have to run this experiment in order to know the difficulties. It may take a few years for Tesla to figure it out or go another path.
Tesla has the following advantages compared to Uber/Lift.
  • No driver.
  • Low fuel costs compared to ICE
  • Low maintenance compared to ICE.
  • Low fleet costs with off-lease cars, LFP batteries.
  • Mixture of privately owned cars and Tesla cars.
We are seeing the difficulty Tesla has getting FSD working.

In China a chinese company may achieve a similar timeline, but in lucrative markets like the US and EU Tesla should be the only viable Robotaxi solution for at least 2-3 years.

The abilty to scale a fleet fast is very important. Convienent timely service, easy booking via an app and low price is a winner with most people, but especially under 30s.

However long it takes, I doubt that competitors can do much to close the gap.

Even if new hardware is needed, Tesla can roll that out relatively fast.

I also think that the mapping aspect may be under estimated, cars are driving around building up maps. These are not HD maps and they are not static, but the maps play some role. I think that role is giving the car information about what it is likely to encounter.

The point here is maps are used to test / verify FSD and FSD is used to verify and enhance the maps. Well that is my best guess about what is happening. If this is true, maps are another early-leader advantage.
 
I just had my "recall" for the S frunk latch "serviced." Handed the tech my FOB, less than 30 seconds later he handed it back. Done.

Simply checking that the hood actually latched after releasing the first lock was all it took to verify the car was not affected by an improperly aligned secondary latch. I didn't ask, but can't imagine it would not have taken more than a few minutes to loosen a few bolts, move the latch and retighten the bolts.

Speaking of bolts, how's that GM Bolt battery recall going, Mary?
Same here, done today in seconds
 
Thats just a 4th press for model Y which needs 2 per line.
Entirely possible. I’m kind of wondering though… why would they need a second line for the Model Y now? Typical production ramp takes a full year to get up to 250k units annually.

We know they will need the Cybertruck press by year end. Are they going to be producing more than 250,000 Model Ys before 2023?

Which will they need sooner, the press for the first Cybertruck deliveries, or the press for the second 250,000 Model Ys?

Seems like Tesla is going to be installing Gigapresses every 4 months or so in Texas for the foreseeable future. Increasing capacity at a rate of 250k+ vehicles for every 2.

Either way it’s good news.
 
Tesla has the following advantages compared to Uber/Lift.
  • No driver.
  • Low fuel costs compared to ICE
  • Low maintenance compared to ICE.
  • Low fleet costs with off-lease cars, LFP batteries.
  • Mixture of privately owned cars and Tesla cars.
We are seeing the difficulty Tesla has getting FSD working.

In China a chinese company may achieve a similar timeline, but in lucrative markets like the US and EU Tesla should be the only viable Robotaxi solution for at least 2-3 years.

The abilty to scale a fleet fast is very important. Convienent timely service, easy booking via an app and low price is a winner with most people, but especially under 30s.

However long it takes, I doubt that competitors can do much to close the gap.

Even if new hardware is needed, Tesla can roll that out relatively fast.

I also think that the mapping aspect may be under estimated, cars are driving around building up maps. These are not HD maps and they are not static, but the maps play some role. I think that role is giving the car information about what it is likely to encounter.

The point here is maps are used to test / verify FSD and FSD is used to verify and enhance the maps. Well that is my best guess about what is happening. If this is true, maps are another early-leader advantage.
I think mapping is fairly antithetical to what tesla is trying to accomplish with their vision based FSD. They are going for the ability for the car to fully handle roads / intersections it encounters which it has never seen specifically before. Maps in a sense are another source of "sensor fusion" issues. For instance there is a road a few blocks from me which in the past couple of months went from one way to two way, and another which was permanently reduced from two lanes to one. FSD has to be able to just deal with changes it hasn't seen before.

On the other hand, using what the car sees to update their map data for navigational purposes could be pretty useful.
 
I just had my "recall" for the S frunk latch "serviced." Handed the tech my FOB, less than 30 seconds later he handed it back. Done.

Simply checking that the hood actually latched after releasing the first lock was all it took to verify the car was not affected by an improperly aligned secondary latch. I didn't ask, but can't imagine it would not have taken more than a few minutes to loosen a few bolts, move the latch and retighten the bolts.

Speaking of bolts, how's that GM Bolt battery recall going, Mary?
I asked when mine was checked. Tech said 20 minutes to repair if needed.
 
Entirely possible. I’m kind of wondering though… why would they need a second line for the Model Y now? Typical production ramp takes a full year to get up to 250k units annually.

IIRC the 1st Gigapress was installed at Giga Texas about 3-4 months ago. That time lag to today likely gives us a good indication about their intentions for the Model Y ramp timeline.

Remember this will be the 5th Model Y line (Fremont, 2xShanghai, 1xAustin). They should be getting good at it by now (or the 6th Model Y line in production if Berlin is allowed to begin before the 2nd line is ready in Austin).

Cheers!
 
Tesla has the following advantages compared to Uber/Lift.
  • No driver.
  • Low fuel costs compared to ICE
  • Low maintenance compared to ICE.
  • Low fleet costs with off-lease cars, LFP batteries.
  • Mixture of privately owned cars and Tesla cars.
We are seeing the difficulty Tesla has getting FSD working.

In China a chinese company may achieve a similar timeline, but in lucrative markets like the US and EU Tesla should be the only viable Robotaxi solution for at least 2-3 years.

The abilty to scale a fleet fast is very important. Convienent timely service, easy booking via an app and low price is a winner with most people, but especially under 30s.

However long it takes, I doubt that competitors can do much to close the gap.

Even if new hardware is needed, Tesla can roll that out relatively fast.

I also think that the mapping aspect may be under estimated, cars are driving around building up maps. These are not HD maps and they are not static, but the maps play some role. I think that role is giving the car information about what it is likely to encounter.

The point here is maps are used to test / verify FSD and FSD is used to verify and enhance the maps. Well that is my best guess about what is happening. If this is true, maps are another early-leader advantage.
Tesla has a lot of advantages over Uber/Lyft, some of which you have not listed. One example: HEPA filters that operate at a guaranteed air refresh rate in these times could be a big differentiator.

Because it can offer a differentiated product, Tesla can attack the problem in a few ways. Like a relatively cheap amped up Tesla Black. But in the end, I don't have conviction on how quickly that could overcome Uber's scale advantages. We will just have to see the experiment play out. Ferragu's theory is at least worth considering.
 
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Entirely possible. I’m kind of wondering though… why would they need a second line for the Model Y now? Typical production ramp takes a full year to get up to 250k units annually.

We know they will need the Cybertruck press by year end. Are they going to be producing more than 250,000 Model Ys before 2023?

Which will they need sooner, the press for the first Cybertruck deliveries, or the press for the second 250,000 Model Ys?

Seems like Tesla is going to be installing Gigapresses every 4 months or so in Texas for the foreseeable future. Increasing capacity at a rate of 250k+ vehicles for every 2.

Either way it’s good news.
Even if the press is not the bottleneck, it's good to avoid single point failures, if practical. With only 2 presses, everything shuts down* if one breaks.

* Or runs at <50% capacity assuming die swapping is even feasible.
 
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I saw that too but boy it is not clear what's happening there pack wise. Maybe @avoigt knows. I don't

That's my understanding as well but again...it seems uncertain. AS IT SHOULD BE. It does not serve Tesla's interest to have competitors know details of the battery until it is unavoidable. If I knew that Berlin was using 4680s from the USA I could maybe swing a few months delay just on that...if from Germany facility I could delay there. You can be sure that it's "on" in germany. Back to my original point, and just my guess, that it serves Tesla for there to be external blame for Berlin not opening vs recognition that Tesla is battery constrained so much that Berlin (and Austin) can't really manufacture at scale yet. The one aspect of the business that is clear is that it is battery constrained and that one fact explains...

Berlin slow
Semi slow
Powerwall slow
Austin slow

Every product wants the 4680.
Both battery lines, 2170 and 4680 is prepared for but I expect based on several information that they start with 4680 for the MIG ModelY. Both packs have been on display but at that point in time but it was a mock-up and not a real battery pack.
 
"Welcome to tesla robotaxi please select your fare type:

Standard : $12
Sport : $20 - sacrifice some comfort to hustle
Business : $25 - includes air cooled seats, HEPA filtered air, air suspension and your favourite business news updates on screen
Zombie Apocalypse : $30 - bullet proof 4wd Cybertruck will get you to your destination even if it involves a global crisis"