Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

Are you assuming the 4680s will still come from Kato Rd? The cell manufacturing line in Berlin looks like it still has a few months to go before production can start - and presumably there will be a testing phase on top.

I assume the Giga Berlin production will start with 2170 cells and 4680 will come from the battery plat in Berlin at a later point in time.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Are you expecting the SP to drop for some reason next January?

I'm hoping it will be quite a bit higher than that by then.

I understand the YoY growth of 71% might drag the SP increase significantly. However, I am trying to set realistic expectations of a stock price increase YoY. Not sure how many year of 50% SP increase is sustainable. Might be fast to catch the 3T AAPL valuation and then slow down on its way to 10T valuation.

 

[WADan]

I found this interview surprisingly good because it actually talked about the shortage of battery production and questioned how other companies will be able to obtain the batteries they need.
It was also positive for Tesla which makes a change from the usual FUD.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481007694605651975

Yes, from every interview that I have seen she is super. She is also very knowledgeable on the macroeconomic front.

 

[lascavarian]

Beyond that they're CHEAP! The warranty costs plummet. and so it goes...

This is a good point. Added stiffness via the castings, structural packs and future benefits from advancements in wiring methods (achievable due to increased precision) suggest a follow-on benefit in reliability and corresponding warranty expense benefits.

 

[Singuy]

that dude's a pompous imbecile and a horrendous writer.

Jack I remember was an excellent fud fighter for the Tesla community when the share prices was depressed, and then died to cancer before enjoying his wealth. I don't think bad mouthing him on this forum will get you anywhere.

 

[brantse]

Jack I remember was an excellent fud fighter for the Tesla community when the share prices was depressed, and then died to cancer before enjoying his wealth. I don't think bad mouthing him on this forum will get you anywhere.

I sincerely miss Jack dearly. He was one of a kind and a brilliant man.

 

[StealthP3D]

One and a half weeks ago I predicted a lot of volatility, and I expect that to continue through earnings and beyond. We should end up a LOT higher than we are now.

 

[StealthP3D]

that dude's a pompous imbecile and a horrendous writer.

Jack Rickard certainly had his faults, as all humans do, but when your form of intelligence is like Jack's, you deserve to be a little pompous. I could probably say that better: any pompousness he had didn't grate me the wrong way in the manner that someone who is actually blind to reality and pompous at the same time does.

As to his writing ability, I don't think Jack had any pretenses of being a writer, what mattered to him were ideas and concepts about what made the world work, and being able to effectively communicate them. And I think he had a special talent there.

I miss his sarcastic wit. RIP Jack.

 

[keydiver]

I just had my "recall" for the S frunk latch "serviced." Handed the tech my FOB, less than 30 seconds later he handed it back. Done.

A mobile tech was just at my house Monday to replace my 12V battery, and I mentioned that I was assuming that he was also going to take care of the frunk latch recall. I knew my secondary latch was fine, and he said it would take him 20 seconds to check it. He said it in a way that indicated to me that he too is sick of the FUD the media likes to create about everything Tesla.

 

[jerry33]

Gigafactory 4 Berlin-Brandenburg

He didn't want to speculate about the date for the final approval -> work in progress .

So basically they will stall final approval as long as humanly possible.

 

[StealthP3D]

Thanks. Just playing the game, not hating the player. That's why I'm holding core TSLA shares that I haven't touched for a long time (they're long term) and utilizing some swing trade money to earn some extra income for short term. As for wins and losses in swing trading, yeah, can't avoid losses. Just need more wins than losses. ARKK comes to mind. I cut my ARKK loss and moved on. TSLA has always allowed me to earned money both ways from short and long terms and is more predictable, but still complex from time to time, to time entry and exit for maximum short term profits.

I'm not trying to talk you out of swing trading because I don't feel like I actually know you. But, if I did, if you were my friend, I would try as hard as I could to try to convince you there were better ways to spend your time and deploy your capital.

One short note on your comment about holding "core" shares and only trading a portion of your TSLA shares: That's how swing trading is justified by most who do it, that it's only a portion of their holdings. But let me be clear, my position that swing trading is most likely not productive to your returns in the end doesn't care whether it's 1% or 100% of your account that is being traded. The idea is that there are better ways in the long term to deploy that capital. If swing trading a portion of your primary holding reduced risk and portfolio volatility, then perhaps it would have some utility. And some people will claim it does exactly that. But, IMO, they are wrong about that, on average.

The top 10% will do a little better than the holders (assuming a tax deferred account) in which case they probably should swing trade their entire portfolio (if they believe their top performance will continue and they have the time to invest in that activity). But, on average, it is a losing strategy and a colossal waste of time and energy.

Carry on.

 

[Don TLR]

Could this be? I know they’ll need a stronger press but they are odd shapes for any cars.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480982690686029824

 

[GOVA]

I found this interview surprisingly good because it actually talked about the shortage of battery production and questioned how other companies will be able to obtain the batteries they need.
It was also positive for Tesla which makes a change from the usual FUD.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481007694605651975

JB Straubel has always been such a Gentelman. Polite, articulate and intelligent. Kudos to him for taking 'our' struggle to the next level and explaining all of those efforts really well. I hope he'll get noticed more now than when he was at Tesla. Also, I hope that Redwood Materials and Tesla have very close ties.

 

[FS_FRA]

So basically they will stall final approval as long as humanly possible.

This is not what Minister Steinbach (he's a professor and PhD Engineering....) said - rough translation was that they were meters away from finishing the approval process and that he was not going to make any statements or infer anything related to the approval process, directly or indirectly, over the next couple of days so as not to risk being accused of taking undue political influence on the process.

 

[FS_FRA]

Could this be? I know they’ll need a stronger press but they are odd shapes for any cars.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480982690686029824

Looks like frunk hoods...

 

[Don TLR]

I guess I got to excited and didn’t see the obvious.

Lots of front and rear casting stored inside, Joe got some great early morning shots inside the factory.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481278998919401476

 

[StealthP3D]

This is the key statement that should trigger a reduction of teeth-gnashing, pearls-clutching, as well as at-the-moon howling against the approval process in Grünheide: The frivolous lawsuit related to water is not a factor in GigaBerlin approval.

Nice.

There are two sides to every coin. So, on one hand I can see your point and it points to approvals coming soon. On the other hand, if the delay in approval of production is not about a fundamental and real thing like water supply, then what the hell is the hold-up? Just red-tape about nothing that actually matters? Because that's not a good look either.

It makes me wonder what is involved in terms of legal paperwork for a German couple to bring another life into this world. Are there stacks and stacks of forms and registrations and approvals that need to be obtained and filled out before the poor little thing is recognized as a person? I was born in Germany but, fortunately it was on a U.S. military base set up after WWII where simple, common-sense procedures ruled.

 

[Curt Renz]

Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler today wrote:

 TSLA—Shares have broken out from a bullish flag formation.
 Above the rising 30-week WMA.
 RS has inflected higher in positive territory and notable TechniGrade ranking.
 Use the current pullback as a buying opportunity.

 

[woodisgood]

Today’s movement is completely unique to Tesla…while overall macros are good, the chart looks nothing like any other. Shorts covering plus AJ effect?

 

[ZachF]

FYI: RM covered this in greater depth in yesterday's Tesla Daily Podcast; very useful summary of why this is so corrupt:

California has the highest energy prices, rolling blackouts, and they’re shutting down their zero carbon nuclear and want to tax the sugar out of solar?!?!

Worst run state in the country. This is cartoon level incompetence.