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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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This is not what Minister Steinbach (he's a professor and PhD Engineering....) said - rough translation was that they were meters away from finishing the approval process and that he was not going to make any statements or infer anything related to the approval process, directly or indirectly, over the next couple of days so as not to risk being accused of taking undue political influence on the process.
Hmm, if the conclusion of the approval is measured as distance that gives them the flexibility to move backwards, forwards, or sideways. Then the real question becomes what is their velocity so we can translate the approval into a time when it will happen.
 
While we have a moment of water treading at $1090-$1095, can you give your thoughts on why TSLA is the entire freakin options market? I'm sure you've addressed it and sorry for the repeat request, just seems like a big red flag. Or at least some sort of flag we should be paying attention to.

Simplest answer is that TSLA is a tera-cap stock with a high beta. That makes it easy to push around for the large hedge funds, who are drawn in like moths to a street light.

Slightly more involved answer is Tesla is disrupting the gravy train for multiple industries: the Media, Auto, Big Carbon, Utilities. They all have reasons to fear and loath Tesla, and they decided years ago to 'play-the-man' (not the ball) by attacking Elon Musk.


Bad choices and greed favor lies in the short-term. Truth will come out in the end. Actually, I hope it comes out in the medium-term. We can help with that. ;)

Cheers!
 
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Did you notice the Open Interest at the $1,100 Strike this morning? Somebody care to post the chart? TIA.
Why yes I did! It is about as high as daily new covid cases...

Screenshot 2022-01-12 10.07.55 AM.png


and this activity above $1900 for calls is also very interesting...

If anyone has a comment on the below?

Screenshot 2022-01-12 10.06.53 AM.png
 
I'm not trying to talk you out of swing trading because I don't feel like I actually know you. But, if I did, if you were my friend, I would try as hard as I could to try to convince you there were better ways to spend your time and deploy your capital.

One short note on your comment about holding "core" shares and only trading a portion of your TSLA shares: That's how swing trading is justified by most who do it, that it's only a portion of their holdings. But let me be clear, my position that swing trading is most likely not productive to your returns in the end doesn't care whether it's 1% or 100% of your account that is being traded. The idea is that there are better ways in the long term to deploy that capital. If swing trading a portion of your primary holding reduced risk and portfolio volatility, then perhaps it would have some utility. And some people will claim it does exactly that. But, IMO, they are wrong about that, on average.

The top 10% will do a little better than the holders (assuming a tax deferred account) in which case they probably should swing trade their entire portfolio (if they believe their top performance will continue and they have the time to invest in that activity). But, on average, it is a losing strategy and a colossal waste of time and energy.

Carry on.
I have been trying to learn more about all this stuff like calls, puts, LEAPS (what the heck is this thing), and you may have convinced me to spend time on other more productive things instead! Thanks, forever more HODL! 😀
 
It may not be an all time high but the 1d, 5d, 1m, 6m, 1y, 5y, and max are all green. The only red now is on the YTD view.

On the Apple Stocks app, it shows the closing price on 1/3 as the starting point for YTD instead of the closing price on 12/31, so the YTD chart is incorrect. Not sure if Google and Yahoo make the same mistake.
 
Why yes I did! It is about as high as daily new covid cases...

View attachment 754946

Thanks, but I was asking specifically about the Open Interest (OI) for the $1,100 Call strike. H/T to @TheTalkingMule for providing that upthread.

80K vol for those $1,100 Calls is crazy high. Lot of money chasing this rainbow. I'm content to hold, live long, and prosper. :D

Cheers!
 
Just got a call from Tesla that they arent going to make the 5 or 7 seat plaid X but that they will cover the $6500 up-charge if I change my order to the 6 seat. If they are doing this for a lot of customers this could affect margins a tad.

I suspect this is to streamline production and logistics. A single variant for seating will vastly simplify both going forward, now that Tesla is producing both the S & X on a single line. 6-seater was obviously the most popular choice, Tesla obviously has margin to spare on an X.

In the larger view, this is also bullish for total Fremont production, since it implies more space and resources being reallocated to Model 3/Y production. Somehow, they plan to increase 3 prod. by 50% there (unknown timeline). This obviously requires a 2nd GA line with the same capacity as the 1st one, and it needs space.

Anybody familar with the factory layout? Can reallocating space from the former Model X line make enough room for another Model 3 line? Also watching the videos for signs of new 'tentage'... ;)

Cheers!
 
Sorry. I did not mean to offend you.
..."something that might actually matter, like water"
might be part of why it seems so odd. The modern German systems hold that broad participation and opinion consideration are things that matter inordinately.
Sometimes it may seem that the most efficient systems are often those that do not encourage diversity of views.
That may not be true, even for Tesla.

Is it analogous to what used to be said about Japanese consensus-oriented decision-making, might take longer but implementation is much smoother?
 
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I suspect this is to streamline production and logistics. A single variant for seating will vastly simplify both going forward, now that Tesla is producing both the S & X on a single line. 6-seater was obviously the most popular choice, Tesla obviously has margin to spare on an X.
I don't think they eliminated the 5/7 seat Model X, just that the Plaid Model X will only be 6 seat. So I don't see production/logistics really being simplified.
 
I don't think they eliminated the 5/7 seat Model X, just that the Plaid Model X will only be 6 seat. So I don't see production/logistics really being simplified.

I see. Are they actually shipping any dual-motor refresh Models X (the ones with 5/7 seats)? It seems possible that the 4 individual seats in the back two rows of the 6-seater may be in common.

Not having to produce a 3-place bench seat for the middle row would be a valuable simplification to both parts and production. But sounds like Tesla does intend to produce the 5/7 seater dual-mtr X.

Cheers!
 
Chip Chowdry has been doing "visits" to Tesla Fremont over the 1st week of January. Sounds like he's been counting car carriers leaving the logistics yard.

At least the shortie air farce wasn't a total waste (doze guys sure quiet these daze). :p

Cheers!
Can no longer afford aviation fuel…