Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

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China...we have different views. The min Tesla and GM bring a huge bag of cash out of China you let me know. Until then I'd chalk China up as uniquely difficult. It works today because they take the "profits" and purchase other manufactured products they export out. All fun and good but if you can't take cash out to me those aren't "profits". Further, if I had influence I'd prohibit booking "profits" that are constrained by national borders, this would not be a popular view with either Tesla or GM.

I
I'm a bit distressed to disagree with you. Thus I will try to explain why you position is incorrect factually.
t's "different views" only because you're ignoring exports. Tesla is making Euro, Shekel, Dirham, Sterling, Kronor, S$, US$ and C$ from China exports.
Beyond that several other OEMs are making cash money from China on similar terms. This thread does need to understand that investments in China are not a one-way-street. TSLA investors are generating large value from Tesla investments there.

We all really need to understand the difference between political positions and economic ones. Tesla has made economic decisions that benefit all of us.
What's more it is just beginning. Once the designed-in-China vehicle/platform arrives there will be large scale exports and production, undoubtedly in more difficult places that tend towards much smaller cheaper models such as India, Mercosur, SE Asia; these things will benefit from China exports and technology transfer.

At present it is difficult to value the cash generated from Tesla Chinese exports, but for 2022 or 2023 we probably will have sufficient details to assess the direct impact.

"..It works today because they take the "profits" and purchase other manufactured products they export out. All fun and good but if you can't take cash out to me those aren't "profits"." This statement is actually contracting itself. For millennia people have sold things to one place and received payment via barter. This practice does absolutely transfer value. In modern times trade subject to exchange controls has regularly used a modern form of barter. There are endless varieties. The present day Chinese trade and investment is fairly open compared to much of the world. FWIW, generic boring terms for this are transfer pricing and trade finance.

Anybody working in trade finance is quite adept at structuring such arrangements. Compared with much of the world the Chinese transfer pricing limitations are trivial.

As always in such business the fine print rules!
NOTE: I loved my years doing this kind of business, especially when the deal was composed of multiple countries and products.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Today could be very exciting as we closed well above support at $1080 and scaled the $1100 call wall.

With macro support nothing is holding us back from running to $1200.

We just have the $1200 call wall to climb.

Lol, it LOOKS like MMs still have their hearts set on $1,100 (note the low volume)

Just 8 more days til Earnings... anybody have next week's Options Open Interest?

Cheers!

 

[Discoducky]

Lol, it LOOKS like MMs still have their hearts set on $1,100 (note the low volume)

View attachment 755249

Just 8 more days til Earnings... anybody have next week's Options Open Interest?

Cheers!

I'm keeping them here: MaxPain, call and put wall historical charts and discussion

 

[jw934]

Why must we keep an eye on the China Omicron situation? No. Seriously. Why?

Two examples: If any bull is over-extended in margin, and media reports Tesla may/has a similar shutdown, there could be mm/hedge fund driving down share price to cause margin calls, and reflexivity could drive more selling by the bulls that could cause additional margin calls on the bulls. On the other hand, if that does happen and share price dives unreasonably low, bulls that have tons of margin (like me) may well choose to short sell some way OTM puts for some low risk cash.

 

[larmor]

Social media influencers, self appointed car experts, and journalists don't profit unless a controversy is created.

Plus he is an idiot.

They don't need a controversary, they just need tesla or TSLA in the headline to get those clicks, aka the new currency. Is advertising driving the clicks that valuable?

On a related topic RIvian's ceo is out and rivian looking into e-bikes instead. Not well covered.

 

[MP3Mike]

On a related topic RIvian's ceo is out and rivian looking into e-bikes instead. Not well covered.

It's not well covered because it isn't true. OTOH the COO did leave...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I've heard other critics state the CT will never see production and that Elon has swindled everyone about it as well. Matt Farah from Smoking Tire is one of them, he also believes FSD is a scam and will never happen either.

I don't get it. Tesla and Elon have a history of telling the truth and doing what they say they will do, at this point how can anyone who is paying attention discount Tesla's public plans? Doesn't make sense to me from an observational point of view.

I don’t believe for a minute that FSD was or is a scam or that Elon would intentionally mislead people on what he thought was the development and roll out time on FSD. I do believe his optimistic nature got the better of him and he was wildly off base on how long it would take FSD to work. What I’m not happy with us the continued saga of FSD and the push that they are close to some kind of wide release. At this point they must know that they are years away from even a functional level 2 release and probably a decade away for level 5 robo taxis.

Just my opinion and not a popular one on this board. Meh.

 

[mongo]

It's not well covered because it isn't true. OTOH the COO did leave...

@larmor
There was a news article yesterday that typoed CEO for COO. Then was corrected (without directly saying what the correction was). So the confusion is understandable .

 

[StealthP3D]

Why must we keep an eye on the China Omicron situation? No. Seriously. Why?

I’m interested in your logic here and how you arrived at it being a situation that affects Tesla or TSLA as an *investment*. Because all I see is a possibility for a short shutdown until enough employees, presumably all vaccinated, recover and return to work. In no way does that change anything from an investment standpoint anymore than the shutdown that happened last time or happens during holidays.

Not only that, nobody believes VW is above letting a good crisis go to waste.

The Chinese don't like VW's anymore? Factory over-production?
We can shut down the factory for a couple of weeks and save some money.
It's too late to blame it on the chip shortage, that would make us look like we have a weak supply chain.
No worries, just tell them we did it out of concern for the latest challenge, Omicron!

 

[inconel]

@larmor
There was a news article yesterday that typoed CEO for COO. Then was corrected (without directly saying what the correction was). So the confusion is understandable .

I was also confused but I read the name of the person in question and confusion resolved. Not that hard.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why must we keep an eye on the China Omicron situation? No. Seriously. Why?

I’m interested in your logic here and how you arrived at it being a situation that affects Tesla or TSLA as an *investment*.

This is primarily about the Beijing Olympics scheduled to start on Feb 4, 2022. Tianjin is about 140 km from Beijing, and well inside the Olymics zone. Shanghai is over 1,200 km by road from Beijing, thus outside the zone. The Olymics will end on Feb 20.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Nothing like a $40 dip during one cup of coffee.

 

[EVDRVN]

Tesla doesn't make any money off solar panels, so impact should be zero.

Generally speaking, Tesla shifts pricing by state based on a combination of state rebates/policy and relative demand. Any cost added to the top lines in CA will likely just be added to the pricetag per Watt in CA.

You can't add to a price tag if there is no demand. The return to customers will not be worth the investment even at todays prices or far less. There are no state rebates in CA and this is the biggest solar market, or WAS. Few will get solar with the proposed fess and retail use rates that are more than 5X the wholesale production rates. I guess Tesla has no reason to be concerned and with zero impact they may as well stop selling solar all together in the CA market. Elon needs to stop being concerned and all the people assembling in CA to protest today need to go home and relax

 

[Nocturnal]

The Street thinks that Elon is just trolling everyone with the cybertruck. Yup, all the patents, products, designs, prototypes, and even a third party steel supplier are all part of an elaborate troll.

Someone got paid to write that.

 

[jerry33]

I've heard other critics state the CT will never see production and that Elon has swindled everyone about it as well. Matt Farah from Smoking Tire is one of them, he also believes FSD is a scam and will never happen either.

You may recall that these same critics also said the Model S couldn't possibly be built either. These critics are either paid shills or have some kind of personal axe to grind. No reason to do anything other than ignore them. And hold on to your shares of course.

 

[15Peter20]

Today could be very exciting as we closed well above support at $1080 and scaled the $1100 call wall.

With macro support nothing is holding us back from running to $1200.

We just have the $1200 call wall to climb.

You wot?

 

[EVDRVN]

I don’t believe for a minute that FSD was or is a scam or that Elon would intentionally mislead people on what he thought was the development and roll out time on FSD. I do believe his optimistic nature got the better of him and he was wildly off base on how long it would take FSD to work. What I’m not happy with us the continued saga of FSD and the push that they are close to some kind of wide release. At this point they must know that they are years away from even a functional level 2 release and probably a decade away for level 5 robo taxis.

Just my opinion and not a popular one on this board. Meh.

This is why companies don't let the engineers talk about timelines and the marketing people engineer products A huge part of the FUD on FSD is because of the overly hyped timelines and missed promises which make for ripe conspiracies and in many cases it's logical. As a person that did product development for a large company you know not to make unrealistic timelines on deliverables that are not ready. In the tech world this is the operating model in many cases

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nothing like a $40 dip during one cup of coffee.

Just tagging the 50-Day Moving avergage (hedgies be like "look-at-me!")

The only groups trading TSLA today are HFTs and MMs, while the world snoozes til Earnings.

Ceres!

 

[EVDRVN]

The Street thinks that Elon is just trolling everyone with the cybertruck. Yup, all the patents, products, designs, prototypes, and even a third party steel supplier are all part of an elaborate troll.

Someone got paid to write that.

View attachment 755254

You know the writers are stoned when the top navigation of the site has "cannabis" as an option. Sorry Dan go smoke another bowl.

 

[CHGolferJim]

It's not well covered because it isn't true. OTOH the COO did leave...

Yep, there was an article in my phone feed with "CEO leaving" in the title, and "COO leaving" in the body of the article, lol.