Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Tesla last reported in the Q3 conf. call that Cybertuck production was on track to begin at the end of 2022, and would enter volume production in 2023. That HAS NOT changed. Even the laughable Reuter's clown said 2023, he just needed to slip in the little lie about "delayed" (which it is not)

The Reuters article moved the start of production (as opposed to volume ramp) to Q1 2023 from 2022. (Though I sort of doubt it, esp since Lars calls out the 4 wheel steering.).
Exclusive: Tesla delays initial production of Cybertruck to early 2023 - source
"Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) aims to start initial production of its much-anticipated Cybertruck by the end of the first quarter of 2023, pushing back its plan to begin production late this year, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday."

Lars said end of 2022 for production on the Q3 call:
Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
"Yeah. Thanks, Martin. We get a lot of questions on Cybertruck. We've been busy detailing the Cybertruck to achieve the prototype version we shared with customers a while back.

As you may have seen recently in social media, we've built a number of alphas and are currently testing those to further mature the design. And while those point out a few key additions like rear steer, there are also a number of smaller or less visible improvements though the product is largely true to the initial vision. We'll continue to work through the product in the beta stages that we're in now and look to launch that by next year"

Elon said line start for Cybertruck in 2022 and volume production in 2023 at the annual meeting, also in October.

Edited from Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk Hosts 2021 Annual Meeting of Stockholders Conference (Transcript)
"So I think most likely what we will see is Cybertruck start production in the next year and then reach volume production in 2023. And hopefully, we can also be producing the semi and the new Roadster in ‘23 as well. So we should be through our severe supply chain shortages in ‘23. I’m optimistic that, that will be the case. We will see."

 

[Rammstein]

I totally appreciate all the analyzing that goes around Tesla stock and it’s future valuation. Like what it’s potential earnings will be and what P/E ratio we can assign to it. That’s all fun and interesting to look at. I honestly think it is much deeper than that though. What’s interesting I have a friend that is the boss of a bunch of investment bankers and another that is in wealth management that only deals with very wealthy people. They both think Tesla is extremely over valued. There’s definitely more to investing in something like Tesla than just looking at the numbers on a spreadsheet. It’s understanding their lead, the company culture, their drive to innovate, actually listening to Elon Musk and understanding him, and predicting future trends. I probably missed some stuff but these things are more important than P/E ratios.

 

[Paul_SF]

I totally appreciate all the analyzing that goes around Tesla stock and it’s future valuation. Like what it’s potential earnings will be and what P/E ratio we can assign to it. That’s all fun and interesting to look at. I honestly think it is much deeper than that though. What’s interesting I have a friend that is the boss of a bunch of investment bankers and another that is in wealth management that only deals with very wealthy people. They both think Tesla is extremely over valued. There’s definitely more to investing in something like Tesla than just looking at the numbers on a spreadsheet. It’s understanding their lead, the company culture, their drive to innovate, actually listening to Elon Musk and understanding him, and predicting future trends. I probably missed some stuff but these things are more important than P/E ratios.

For sure. I can’t imagine how the world would look like if everyone with a *sugar* load of money was actually thinking from first principles and highly intelligent. Ha. But I do wonder how that world would look like.


(/s, just in case that didn’t come through)

HODL

 

[Buckminster]

I attempted to predict supplied Vs in-house 4680s here in a more suitable thread:
Gigafactory locations and products

 

[CorneliusXX]

While the post was good, this sounds a little too much like insider trading to me.

Moderateur le Premier: Qui - moi? Je t'en pris, mais malheuresement I know absolutely nobody and no one at Virgin. And every day's a good day to buy TSLA. Or since that was Dodger's post, are you complaining it's he who is so trading?

Insider trading wrt getting on the "moderators choice" thread - you may know someone on the inside who could make that happen. I wasn't trying to imply that you and RB talk shop while going kite surfing on necker island.

 

[Question]

I totally appreciate all the analyzing that goes around Tesla stock and it’s future valuation. Like what it’s potential earnings will be and what P/E ratio we can assign to it. That’s all fun and interesting to look at. I honestly think it is much deeper than that though. What’s interesting I have a friend that is the boss of a bunch of investment bankers and another that is in wealth management that only deals with very wealthy people. They both think Tesla is extremely over valued. There’s definitely more to investing in something like Tesla than just looking at the numbers on a spreadsheet. It’s understanding their lead, the company culture, their drive to innovate, actually listening to Elon Musk and understanding him, and predicting future trends. I probably missed some stuff but these things are more important than P/E ratios.

Ask them after Q4. These "normies" don't believe until they see the numbers published.

Q4 annualized P/E ratio will be 100'ish. P/E 100 with 6-8 years 50% growth and even faster profit growth is a no brainer, no matter how good or bad the company is. I do think at some point near future stock corrects itself to higher valuation and then I continue holding because of those reasons you mentioned.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Seems like you will deserve a Teslaquila bottle too if this happens. Next time I am ordering 10 of them to ship to every bull here.


That was also the first time I read the concept of third party 4680s. Correct me if I am wrong but my understanding from Tesla battery day was that Tesla was going to produce all of them in house.

Panasonic defo retooling for 4680. I think I saw reports of CATL doing the same.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Tesla shop is accepting Dogecoin for certain items now. Cyber whistle just sold out.

Got my overpriced S3XY mug. Transaction speed too fast to measure.

 

[2daMoon]

The Stock Channel.
Some people on this forum think (might be right) that this Youtuber is "all hat no cattle" but I find it's informative, and helpful. For long term shareholders (me) it doesn't matter. HODL

​

What I got from this is that the Hedgies are giving TSLA a wedgie.

What a bunch of schoolyard bullies!

 

[lascavarian]

Got my overpriced S3XY mug. Transaction speed too fast to measure.View attachment 755561

It may be wise to ponder the meaning of a pattern forming.

Btc was attempted briefly. Then Btc was pulled. Now Doge is being tried after the Lex interview.

It appears that Btc is in the rear view mirror. My expectation is that there could be a price to be paid as Btc advocates exact a cost as first principles thinking selects Doge. YMMV

 

[Unpilot]

Who is catching this falling knife today?

 

[Singuy]

Definitely if you look at tesla in a traditional way its a out 10x over valued. PE of 300 vs 30 for a more typical auto maker. I assume it's the speculation aspect though and people are betting it grows into its valuation?

Yeah I agreed with you and have no idea how Ford can grow into their valuation as their yoy growth is flat to negative for the past decade. They also have this entire division that generates 95% of their revenue going to zero from all these ICE bans going into 2030s. Highly speculative and I would rather invest in cum rocket coins.

 

[Unpilot]

Definitely if you look at tesla in a traditional way its a out 10x over valued. PE of 300 vs 30 for a more typical auto maker. I assume it's the speculation aspect though and people are betting it grows into its valuation?

Tesla is anything but traditional...thank dog.

 

[H Mak]

Who is catching this falling knife today?

My daughter, with the Christmas money I gave her

 

[JustMe]

Definitely if you look at tesla in a traditional way its a out 10x over valued. PE of 300 vs 30 for a more typical auto maker. I assume it's the speculation aspect though and people are betting it grows into its valuation?

Google DCF and read the past posts in this thread

Here’s an example of Tesla price target based on projected revenue

Let us know if you have questions after your studies

 

[mongo]

Definitely if you look at tesla in a traditional way its a out 10x over valued. PE of 300 vs 30 for a more typical auto maker. I assume it's the speculation aspect though and people are betting it grows into its valuation?

I think (hope) you dropped this "/s"

P=$1,003 pre market
E=$2.23 average guess for Q4 x 4 = $8.92
1003/8.92=112
Even using trailing earnings: 300x at 6.36 (2021) would be >$1,900 a share. 158 P/E currently.

What other automaker has Tesla's level of growth? (Or any)

 

[larmor]

I think eventually the goal is to get everything to 4680 because the $/kwh is much lower. However 4680 cells will be production constrained for a long time and I expect powerwall will be the last product to swap over. And I expect powerwall & mega pack to move to LFP because $/kWh is more important than kg/kWh. (Although Battery day slide only showed mega pack LFP)View attachment 755489

New Shortsville Times headline: Tesla to sell bed sheets embeded with Iron based cathode which will collect static electricity....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Looking like tech may have another tough day. This is all shaping up very nicely for earnings if tech continues to underwhelm. TSLA earnings are going to be bonkers, growth is going to be bonkers. A nice +20% snap back in a short window is always appreciated.

We should see this all reverse once the numbers are out and absorbed. Isn't that a bit too obvious tho? Everyone knows TSLA is going to crush earnings, right?

I'm purely selling BPS in the "other thread" these days, but have a couple 1/28 orders in for $1200c at cheap prices. We'll see if this is a real dip or yet another head fake.

 

[Unpilot]

Like spring follows winter ....so do the new members asking the same old care bear nonsense following a drop in share price.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Bloomberg has the NASDAQ about as far below the 100-day moving average as we've seen since the pandemic bottom. Should be a nice floor......for the 8th time in a row.