Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

His supposed "$5,000 Fix" died

To be accurate it just ran out of charge faster than projected range. It charged back up once it was towed to a charger. The issue is probably mismatched modules that can't be accurately tracked for capacity so getting the projected range correct isn't possible. I don't know if there is any workaround for this.

 

[mongo]

Yep the it must be a dividend crowd keeps saying what can they do with all that money coming in. Well all the factories, delivery centers/service centers, and supercharging locations can be covered with panels.

It won't be cheap but it will reduce Tesla's cost of doing business in the long run.

They couldn't afford to do it everywhere before, but now with all this money coming in they have free reign to solar PV every site they own or lease.

If it counts as CapEx then it should immediately increase the bottom line via reduced expenses with the downsides of less cash on hand and depreciation (EBIT will be happy).
Additionally, the federal tax credit will apply to the installed cost giving an immediate bump. Maybe just the HW cost if it is a self install.
@The Accountant , how off base am I?

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Mods have let this heat pump talk get out of control. Doesn’t belong here. Can we once and for all take back control of my favorite TMC thread?

No, this is NOT in the "Doesn't belong here" world, but highly important as it's yet another self-induced fulcrum which the FUDsters will leverage against to make Tesla, and TSLA, look bad--with justification!

This greatly damages the mission.

And it's self-induced because Tesla runs fast and loose and doesn't test enough, obviously. (And we're in what appears to be Year Two of this fiasco? Come on Elon!)

If you'd like to get a feel for how much of an issue this is, go ahead and empty out your freezer. Crawl in. Give it about 5 minutes. Tell us if you still think it's unimportant to Tesla's Mission and TSLA . . . .

Geesh, so many fanbois here that think that any criticism is unwarranted. We need to stop with the confirmation bias and open our eyes. There are Tesla-internal issues here and they need to be resolved STAT. Most important: root cause analysis to prevent such design, production, and TESTING failures from ever occurring again.

This is a Life-Safety failure; we can't have those.

 

[The Accountant]

I updated my 5 Year Forecast in a separate thread (linked at the bottom of this post).

Here are my price targets from this exercise as compared to my last forecast:

I like to compare my numbers to Amazon's 2015 - 2020 period as this is when Amazon first consistently delivered profits.
Here are some comparison of my forecast to Amazon's 2015-2020 run:

GAAP EPS and P/E Multiple

Sales Growth & Operating Income Margins

Free Cash Flow

For more details on my 5 year forecast, see the 8 posts in this thread:

Tesla Valuation Based on 5 Year Outlook

Great set of numbers. I should just quit my job now :). Why do residential solar roof sites increase to 1.2m/yr in 2023 before dropping back to 50k/yr from 2024 onwards? Ooops. I made a silly and overwrote the equation in the MW-table that was driven by the #-table. So the MW table is...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[navguy12]

Disagree on several levels.

First, it's 2022, these are VERY expensive cars, and standards/expectations have changed.

Second, if you're taking a long-trip in, say, Canada or the northern tier of the US, the Nordic countries, etc., exposure to ambient temperatures for long periods WILL threaten your ability to actually keep yourself and your family alive.

Third, it very much appears that Tesla dropped the ball here as this is year TWO of these complaints, and I posit that IF Tesla had done better cold weather testing these failures would not have occurred.

As shareholders, we should all be disappointed with this issue, especially as it creates a huge FUD opportunity (that IS partially true!) that hampers Tesla's critical mission.

Until this is resolved, it DOES count as a Tesla "Fail," and a big one at that.

Not sure if they already have one, but I would expect Tesla to have a “cold room” where one can crank the temperature down to -40, introduce wind and precipitation in a controlled manner and have the test vehicle operate within those conditions via a dynamometer setup…and if Tesla doesn’t have one of these, then like the Gigapress, they should make one.

 

[EVMeister]

No, this is NOT in the "Doesn't belong here" world, but highly important as it's yet another self-induced fulcrum which the FUDsters will leverage against to make Tesla, and TSLA, look bad--with justification!

This greatly damages the mission.

And it's self-induced because Tesla runs fast and loose and doesn't test enough, obviously. (And we're in what appears to be Year Two of this fiasco? Come on Elon!)

If you'd like to get a feel for how much of an issue this is, go ahead and empty out your freezer. Crawl in. Give it about 5 minutes. Tell us if you still think it's unimportant to Tesla's Mission and TSLA . . . .

Geesh, so many fanbois here that think that any criticism is unwarranted. We need to stop with the confirmation bias and open our eyes. There are Tesla-internal issues here and they need to be resolved STAT. Most important: root cause analysis to prevent such design, production, and TESTING failures from ever occurring again.

This is a Life-Safety failure; we can't have those.

FYI I gave your last post a disagree because I feel you're exaggerating the issue, not because there isn't an issue. I also found your use of capitilisation to draw attention to your opinion (which is just that) obnoxious. Elon has acknowledged the issue and appears to be pulling the right strings to get it sorted. It doesn't need to be discussed here ad nauseam.

 

[Drumheller]

Mods have let this heat pump talk get out of control. Doesn’t belong here. Can we once and for all take back control of my favorite TMC thread?

I find the issue more pertinent to this thread than the 10 pages of Robotaxi and FSD speculation from people that have never developed in A.I. that seems to get posted in this thread about every 3 weeks. The mods allow that, because it's positive about Tesla.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

No, this is NOT in the "Doesn't belong here" world, but highly important as it's yet another self-induced fulcrum which the FUDsters will leverage against to make Tesla, and TSLA, look bad--with justification!

This greatly damages the mission.

And it's self-induced because Tesla runs fast and loose and doesn't test enough, obviously. (And we're in what appears to be Year Two of this fiasco? Come on Elon!)

If you'd like to get a feel for how much of an issue this is, go ahead and empty out your freezer. Crawl in. Give it about 5 minutes. Tell us if you still think it's unimportant to Tesla's Mission and TSLA . . . .

Geesh, so many fanbois here that think that any criticism is unwarranted. We need to stop with the confirmation bias and open our eyes. There are Tesla-internal issues here and they need to be resolved STAT. Most important: root cause analysis to prevent such design, production, and TESTING failures from ever occurring again.

This is a Life-Safety failure; we can't have those.

Honestly, I can't remember you posting in this thread except for around earnings and in reference to some silly already-fixed-in 15-minutes "life safety" issue.

There are fanboys here of course, it's literally a fan site. The care bears coming out of quarterly hibernation for their two weeks of FUD confirmation is almost as annoying.

 

[ggies07]

I find the issue more pertinent to this thread than the 10 pages of Robotaxi and FSD speculation from armchair quarterbacks that have never developed in A.I. that seems to get posted in this thread about every 3 weeks. The mods allow that, because it's positive about Tesla.

I agree. Again, the initial design of the Y didn't have the heat pump and was later added in by suggestion. So it seams they didn't do enough testing on their end....which is bad news for anyone trying to promote EVs. This can affect the stock as well. A software push to work around a sensor is not a first principle design, right?

 

[mongo]

I agree. Again, the initial design of the Y didn't have the heat pump and was later added in by suggestion. So it seams they didn't do enough testing on their end....which is bad news for anyone trying to promote EVs. This can affect the stock as well. A software push to work around a sensor is not a first principle design, right?

???
The Y launched with a heat pump.
Patent for it was filed Sep 7, 2018. That's over a year before production launch in January 2020 and before the reveal in March 2019.
Not long enough? The first provisional application was filed September of 2017.
I think it's safe to say they worked on it, including testing, for a while. It was not an after thought.

 

[insaneoctane]

Not sure if they already have one, but I would expect Tesla to have a “cold room” where one can crank the temperature down to -40, introduce wind and precipitation in a controlled manner and have the test vehicle operate within those conditions via a dynamometer setup…and if Tesla doesn’t have one of these, then like the Gigapress, they should make one.

To be fair, you probably learn LOTS more by shipping half a dozen cars to MN or Canada for a month or 2 and have testers experience existing with them in the harsh cold.
A cold room would be valuable, but probably not a silver-bullet.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I've got a splendid idea. Why not lock this thread from noon Saturday til 5pm Monday of any holiday weekend?

Would keep the mess/FUD/arguments to a minimum and give people a bit of practice posting in other(more on-topic) threads/forums.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Here is an article on Tesla cold weather testing in Delta Junction Alaska. An exclusive look at Tesla's extreme cold testing facility
Edit: from 2019

 

[TheTalkingMule]

To be fair, you probably learn LOTS more by shipping half a dozen cars to MN or Canada for a month or 2 and have testers experience existing with them in the harsh cold.
A cold room would be valuable, but probably not a silver-bullet.

If I'm not mistaken, that's precisely what was done. Norway maybe? Or somewhere in Canada?

 

[insaneoctane]

Re heat pump...
Certainly as investors, we want to know if this is a real issue or not?
IMO, the jury is still out. I've read some threads on twitter that imply this issue may NOT be an OTA fix. Maybe the OTA buys Tesla some more time to figure things out? Either way, I'm going to watch the story develop and try to stick to the facts. The way in which Tesla handles the issue (and FUD) is important to me.

Here's a thread that speculatively shows the internal damage on some heat pumps...don't know if it's real or FUD yet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1482464666643316741

 

[insaneoctane]

Here is an article on Tesla cold weather testing in Delta Junction Alaska. An exclusive look at Tesla's extreme cold testing facility

Dated (2019) relative to the MY, but excellent article. With development cycles so fast, I hope Tesla is fully using these facilities still.

I really enjoyed the closing comment:
"And what about the more specific concerns raised about the Model 3's freezing door handles and stuck windows? Tesla quickly addressed the window issue with an update, but as ever I think a little perspective is important here. Back in 2002, my first new car also had door handles that stuck and windows that wouldn't go down in the cold. Additionally, it suffered whiplash-inducing clutch shudder on chilly mornings. It even leaked fuel when the temperatures were below freezing. That new car? It was a WRX, from a company that's been making some of the planet's best winter cars for decades."

 

[2daMoon]

No, this is NOT in the "Doesn't belong here" world, but highly important as it's yet another self-induced fulcrum which the FUDsters will leverage against to make Tesla, and TSLA, look bad--with justification!

This greatly damages the mission.

And it's self-induced because Tesla runs fast and loose and doesn't test enough, obviously. (And we're in what appears to be Year Two of this fiasco? Come on Elon!)

If you'd like to get a feel for how much of an issue this is, go ahead and empty out your freezer. Crawl in. Give it about 5 minutes. Tell us if you still think it's unimportant to Tesla's Mission and TSLA . . . .

Geesh, so many fanbois here that think that any criticism is unwarranted. We need to stop with the confirmation bias and open our eyes. There are Tesla-internal issues here and they need to be resolved STAT. Most important: root cause analysis to prevent such design, production, and TESTING failures from ever occurring again.

This is a Life-Safety failure; we can't have those.

There will always be issues that slip through the cracks no matter how much testing is done. I prefer Tesla's fast-failure-then-iteration approach and it encourages innovation and does not delay product upgrades until the next model year of vehicle comes out.

The more important thing to consider is how quickly will the manufacturer respond?

Would you rather have Tesla working on a fix for the vent flap freezing, or, have GM working on your Bolt?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Re heat pump...
Certainly as investors, we want to know if this is a real issue or not?
IMO, the jury is still out. I've read some threads on twitter that imply this issue may NOT be an OTA fix. Maybe the OTA buys Tesla some more time to figure things out? Either way, I'm going to watch the story develop and try to stick to the facts. The way in which Tesla handles the issue (and FUD) is important to me.

Here's a thread that speculatively shows the internal damage on some heat pumps...don't know if it's real or FUD yet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1482464666643316741

It's FUD. Damage internally is a common thing. Not specific to Tesla's.

FYI Green likes to present himself a fair and unbiased but he's 100% bias against Tesla......he just puts in more effort to hide it.

 

[Queeg500]

I hope the Tesla teams working on the heat pump don’t rely on our posts for a solution.

 

[mongo]

It's FUD. Damage internally is a common thing. Not specific to Tesla's.

FYI Green likes to present himself a fair and unbiased but he's 100% bias against Tesla......he just puts in more effort to hide it.

What do you mean by "Damage internally is a common thing"? Compressors should not have internal damage at low hours and should only have wear at high hours. Within bounds of bathtub curve.