Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Huskyf]

What do you mean by "Damage internally is a common thing"? Compressors should not have internal damage at low hours and should only have wear at high hours. Within bounds of bathtub curve.

For me the damage is the user this thing is not made it for opened again after installation it's because Tesla replace it not open it . If you open you broke it apart.

 

[insaneoctane]

Great work and thank you. Love all this but I have some concerns about CA solar issue and it's related impact both on residential storage and other states as well. Hopefully this all gets resolved.

Wonder if CA customers would like MORE solar and MORE storage enabling them to completely disconnect from the grid and the greedy PUCs? It will certainly make a step function for ROI with complete autonomy from the grid in CA.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Common as in it's a common problem/issue that arises in certain situations across all cars that have compressors and that it's not just a Tesla specific thing. Not that it's a common issue with compressors.

That thread is a couple days old and when I saw it, I went through the thread, came across some posts showing other car's compressors showing the same internal damage, did some searching on my own and was able to find non-tesla other examples of internal damage.

Not seen any hint from other sources that a compressor failure is even involved in the "issue" at hand.

 

[bkp_duke]

Wonder if CA customers would like MORE solar and MORE storage enabling them to completely disconnect from the grid and the greedy PUCs? It will certainly make a step function for ROI with complete autonomy from the grid in CA.

Yes, yes I would.

I would also like COMPETITION. Give me a choice of utilities. I don't want to be beholden to whatever company has a regional monopoly.

Tesla Energy - are you hearing us? We would LOVE for you to roll out a service where your solar+battery customers could participate in a virtual power plant, in exchange for reasonable electricity rates when we need to tap into the grid.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

I was sent this today from an Energy Efficiency Engineer colleague that also found it a very well written, very informative, and very concerning summary of the current threat to California residential solar from a very informed source. Since many here might be behind a NYT paywall as I am, I am posting the article and the link. If mods determine the article must be removed from my post I ask that the link remain for its relevance to recent discussions:

Opinion | Schwarzenegger: We Put Solar Panels on 1 Million Roofs in California. That Win Is Now Under Threat.

Removing incentives to encourage homeowners to install solar panels is a bad idea.

www.nytimes.com

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Arnie is spot on. Well written.

 

[VValleyEV]

I was sent this today from an Energy Efficiency Engineer colleague that also found it a very well written, very informative, and very concerning summary of the current threat to California residential solar from a very informed source. Since many here might be behind a NYT paywall as I am, I am posting the article and the link. If mods determine the article must be removed from my post I ask that the link remain for its relevance to recent discussions:

Opinion | Schwarzenegger: We Put Solar Panels on 1 Million Roofs in California. That Win Is Now Under Threat.

Removing incentives to encourage homeowners to install solar panels is a bad idea.

www.nytimes.com

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Good for Arnie.

I believe there is some nuance here.

I think there is some merit in the argument that crediting customers for power sent back to the grid at full retail rates is unsustainable for the utilities. If this is what California is doing, they should lower the credits to a wholesale level (TBD by some mechanism believed to be fair), instead of adding a flat “grid usage fee”. This approach would be much fairer, but perhaps more importantly would provide some incentives for installation of home battery storage, which the Governator mentions as necessary.

In my state of Arizona, I am currently getting credit for power I send to the grid at full retail price, and my monthly grid maintenance fee is about $13. They did change rules for annual carryover: used to be my power credit balance would roll over indefinitely, and now instead they cash the credit out on Dec 31 at a very low rate, certainly way below wholesale, creating a fixed one-time $ credit balance on my account. I would much rather have them lower my credits for power sent to the grid, by some percentage. This would give me an incentive to install Tesla Powerwalls, taking a significant load off the power grid and saving me money in the process. I may do it anyway because it would be way cool to be less dependent on the grid and oblivious to most power failures, would be fun to have Tesla Powerwall controls in the same app with the cars, and maybe it would just be good to use some of my good fortune to be a better citizen.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I know how you feel. The financials and valuation can seem too high when we look at where we stand today.
However, I really take my emotions out of the process when I compute these numbers.
I stick with the math (i.e. units x average selling price, etc, etc). All Tesla has to do is execute on their auto and energy storage plans. I assume no Robo-Taxi and no new AI products. Keep doing what they are doing now . . . expand the product line and expand their territory markets and we get to over $4,000 per share by 2026 (barring any black swan macro event).

Stop. You are getting me too excited. I have closed a UK tax free managed investing account that I set up long before I got into retail/TESLA, for my dry powder this week. It is just taking them too damn long to process (funny that) I want to buy below 1100 if possible. getting anxious.

 

[Mengy]

I know how you feel. The financials and valuation can seem too high when we look at where we stand today.
However, I really take my emotions out of the process when I compute these numbers.

Yeah, taking emotions out of the model can be hard for me. My initial Tesla excel model predicted stupid high share prices that were ironically almost in line with your share price predictions. BUT, I figured that couldn't be right so I tuned things down conservatively by tweaking down things like PE ratios, profit margins, ASP's, etc. I tuned down until the numbers looked more "realistic".

Tesla's actual financials are playing out higher than my conservative predictions were, yet I still have a hard time believing they will continue to do so.

In the end it doesn't matter much as I'm HODL'ing anyway, LOL!!! I'll just be pleasantly surprised down the road!

 

[samppa]

???
The Y launched with a heat pump.
Patent for it was filed Sep 7, 2018. That's over a year before production launch in January 2020 and before the reveal in March 2019.
Not long enough? The first provisional application was filed September of 2017.
I think it's safe to say they worked on it, including testing, for a while. It was not an after thought.

Soo.. why is this the first winter we are seeing this problem, in these numbers?

we did a gallup on 2021 Y/3 owners here, and about 30% have had issues with heat pump. Some supermanifolds have been replaced.

Did they change something from Model Y previous design?

 

[tivoboy]

Wonder if CA customers would like MORE solar and MORE storage enabling them to completely disconnect from the grid and the greedy PUCs? It will certainly make a step function for ROI with complete autonomy from the grid in CA.

New construction in CA requires solar to be installed on all new single family and multi-family roofs, with some limited exceptions.. roof TOO small, too much shade, etc. I’m not sure if a tear down and rebuild (which happens pretty much weekly in my area) has to meet this requirement, but odds are within about 10 years there will be a lot more solar - and battery backups.

 

[Lessmog]

Pictures from Russia: Jeessh, says it all. No evidence from credible source (yet) of the compressor failing. I thought the issue was just that the turned itself off due to the wrong temperature of air going passed when the vent sticks. The combination of software logic change (syntax on probability of air vent temperature validity vs external temperature), user cleaning vents, and potentially adding a defrost action into place for the vent assembly would be good.

Syntax, what syntax? I really don't understand you here. Maybe check some spelling? No, not much help.














+

 

[navguy12]

Cold weather testing isn’t as easy as dialing the temperature down. You’ve got freeze/thaw cycles, humidity variations, various formulations of road slush (want rock salt with that?), wind, snow, hail, freezing rain, etc.

You can’t test for everything, and occasionally things will slip through the cracks as it were. ICE manufacturers have these types of problems too, they just aren’t front page news. The amount of attention paid to Tesla is insane…

Agreed that one cannot test for everything.

Obviously, a cold room would be outfitted to enable the various meteorological conditions you described.

Cold weather testing of an EV has to go the extra mile because, as we all know, an ICE is simply a heat generator with the byproduct being propulsion, where in an EV that relationship is reversed.

 

[st_lopes]

Soo.. why is this the first winter we are seeing this problem, in these numbers?

we did a gallup on 2021 Y/3 owners here, and about 30% have had issues with heat pump. Some supermanifolds have been replaced.

Did they change something from Model Y previous design?

I have a 2021 MY November 2020 delivery in Quebec, Canada. No issues last winter, but did have to get heat pump and supermanifold replaced this year. Tech mentioned that it seems like the temp sensors are the root cause. Only reason I can think of that it’s happening this year and not last is that there was some kind of software logic change between now and then.

That said, this is purely bouncing around in our echo chamber of Tesla Twitter. This will have zero impact on long term demand. It will get fixed. Quickly and cost efficiently.

 

[EVDRVN]

Wonder if CA customers would like MORE solar and MORE storage enabling them to completely disconnect from the grid and the greedy PUCs? It will certainly make a step function for ROI with complete autonomy from the grid in CA.

Anyone on PGE would likely welcome that, they are pretty much hated here for the most part.

 

[mongo]

Soo.. why is this the first winter we are seeing this problem, in these numbers?

we did a gallup on 2021 Y/3 owners here, and about 30% have had issues with heat pump. Some supermanifolds have been replaced.

Did they change something from Model Y previous design?

That's the million dollar question.
If 2020 cars didn't have trouble in 2020 but did in 2021, then Tesla may have made a problematic software change.
If it is only 2021 cars then it could be either:
software that acts differently based on model year
or
there was a hardware change with a side effect

Add on that there could be multiple different failure modes: system self-disable due to air door stuck open, possible compressor damage potentially due to refrigerant flooding, the pressure/ temperature sensors under recall, and/or the mystery guest.

If Tesla's supplier's added a new line, or Tesla added a new supplier, then there may enough part variation to upset the amount of liquid introduced.

Regarding the second failure mode: the patent calls out the purposeful introduction of liquid refrigerant to the compressor to boost performance. It also warns that this could cause damage if not well controlled. The EXV (the part getting recalibrated) is a key component of this system.

As always GIGO/ Dunning-Kruger

 

[Tyler34]

That's the million dollar question.
If 2020 cars didn't have trouble in 2020 but did in 2021, then Tesla may have made a problematic software change.
If it is only 2021 cars then it could be either:
software that acts differently based on model year
or
there was a hardware change with a side effect

Add on that there could be multiple different failure modes: system self-disable due to air door stuck open, possible compressor damage potentially due to refrigerant flooding, the pressure/ temperature sensors under recall, and/or the mystery guest.

If Tesla's supplier's added a new line, or Tesla added a new supplier, then there may enough part variation to upset the amount of liquid introduced.

Regarding the second failure mode: the patent calls out the purposeful introduction of liquid refrigerant to the compressor to boost performance. It also warns that this could cause damage if not well controlled. The EXV (the part getting recalibrated) is a key component of this system.

As always GIGO/ Dunning-Kruger

I had this issue in -10 F Montana in Feb2021 on my June2020 Model Y. Maybe I should have cried about it more to get the word out. Long way of saying maybe we are hearing about it now because there are 10 times more Model Ys on the road and not just the enthusiasts have them?

 

[Cosmacelf]

I'd like to suggest that the growth isn't necessarily predicated on continued battery cell cost reduction as much as on battery cell availability. @The Accountant will need to comment, but without the cell cost reduction, margins might not get as high, but just extrapolating the current batteries still delivers much of the story.

If the battery cells cost too much, then you can't make cheaper cars, and thus you can't get increased sales and thus growth stalls. Yes, you can somewhat mitigate with margin compression, but that doesn't help the stock price. As time goes on, stock price will correlate with P/E so margin compression with increased sales will be roughly equivalent to same margins but lower sales, ie slower growth.

Tesla is doing everything it can to take control of battery cell costs for these reasons. Absent Tesla's cost reduction work, the cell manufacturers would happily produce as many cells as the industry wanted, but at higher prices than Tesla wants for truly high volume sales.

 

[navguy12]

That's the million dollar question.
If 2020 cars didn't have trouble in 2020 but did in 2021, then Tesla may have made a problematic software change.
If it is only 2021 cars then it could be either:
software that acts differently based on model year
or
there was a hardware change with a side effect

Add on that there could be multiple different failure modes: system self-disable due to air door stuck open, possible compressor damage potentially due to refrigerant flooding, the pressure/ temperature sensors under recall, and/or the mystery guest.

If Tesla's supplier's added a new line, or Tesla added a new supplier, then there may enough part variation to upset the amount of liquid introduced.

Regarding the second failure mode: the patent calls out the purposeful introduction of liquid refrigerant to the compressor to boost performance. It also warns that this could cause damage if not well controlled. The EXV (the part getting recalibrated) is a key component of this system.

As always GIGO/ Dunning-Kruger

When I learned that the Tesla system employ’s a two stage system (?) for higher efficiency at lower ambient temperatures, I was reminded of the potential (but ultimate failure) of a first generation attempt at that with the “Hallowell” dual stage heat pumps from the mid ‘00s.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

No, this is NOT in the "Doesn't belong here" world, but highly important as it's yet another self-induced fulcrum which the FUDsters will leverage against to make Tesla, and TSLA, look bad--with justification!

This greatly damages the mission.

And it's self-induced because Tesla runs fast and loose and doesn't test enough, obviously. (And we're in what appears to be Year Two of this fiasco? Come on Elon!)

If you'd like to get a feel for how much of an issue this is, go ahead and empty out your freezer. Crawl in. Give it about 5 minutes. Tell us if you still think it's unimportant to Tesla's Mission and TSLA . . . .

Geesh, so many fanbois here that think that any criticism is unwarranted. We need to stop with the confirmation bias and open our eyes. There are Tesla-internal issues here and they need to be resolved STAT. Most important: root cause analysis to prevent such design, production, and TESTING failures from ever occurring again.

This is a Life-Safety failure; we can't have those.

Totally agree. Let’s not become an echo chamber of all things good about Tesla. Great cars, great tech, great company and a great leader. But keeping it real is important.

 

[lafrisbee]

The ONLY big news on Friday was Elon was going to be in Berlin this week end....
Where is Elon?