Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

Royal Lepage is one of the top Realtors in Canada.
Just saw an ad from Royal Lepage while on Youtube.
watch
This is why Tesla does not need to spend a penny on advertising.

As noted by @Krugerrand a red Tesla Model 3 appears for a full 69 seconds of this 77 second video ad (viewed from exterior (close ups and distance range), interior and even aerial shots). Royal Lepage appears for four seconds. The other four seconds is fluff.

 

[hacer]

Well it's what they set up for Tesla. And they are not hard metrics. One of the company just needed Tesla to show Ebita margin of 4% while Texas/Berlin are in production.

Guess poor production hell execution from Tesla's existence till 2018 was a risk that great execution from giga Shanghai didn't fully cancel out.

You're saying the > 61% CAGR in vehicle delivers for the years 2013 - 2018 was the "poor production hell"?

2013-2014 had 41% increase: 22,442 -> 31,655
2014-2015 had 59% increase: 31,655 -> 50,517
2015-2016 had 50.9% increase: 50,517 -> 76,243
2016-2017 had 35.2% increase: 76,243 -> 103,091
2017-2018 had 138% increase: 103,091 -> 245,491

If this is poor performance then the forward looking 50% CAGR for many more years must be really sucky. That's why the stock is tanking!

 

[mickle]

"California utility regulators have quietly tabled a controversial plan made public last month that would drastically reduce the benefits provided to homeowners with rooftop solar panels."

A big decision on rooftop solar in California is off the table, for now

 

[TheTalkingMule]

All due respect TTM, but I think we’re over 10% at this point, certainly if one moves back into either late DEC or JAN start or top tick I GUESS if I go back a fortnight to 1/6/22 we’re almost at 10%.… my target has always been a. 13% correction for this phase and I think we’re going to tap that and probably a teeny tiny bit of extension on the Q’a.. just for good measure, flush out the weak hands so to speak. Question will be, is it s a FALSE bottom. I think for the 2022 cycle, buys in premium tech either tomorrow or in the final week of JAn will be solid positions by Q4’22/Q1’23

I'm in full agreement. We're at -9.7% from the recent peak on QQQ and I would imagine it sheds another decent bit tomorrow to take it down near the recent low of $355ish. Seems advantageous to all involved. I would imagine MM's don't care what then happens after options expire this week, their mission is accomplished.

Having TSLA ride this wave down is huge for us. I think we're pretty pegged to $1000 since there are plenty of folks who need shares and realize the bargain. That doesn't mean they can't at least try and push down further at the open tomorrow and see what shakes loose. Hence my moderate LEAP conversion plan.

Really the only reason I didn't already do it is I'm sitting on so many BPS for next week and I'm new enough to it I'd rather not watch them AND try to not screw up a conversion of shares to LEAPs.

If they try for $960(lower BB) at the open tomorrow I'll do it, that's my plan as of now. As in sell at $980, buy the top priority safest LEAPs first, and see if they push down further thru Friday. Sprinkle some YOLOs on top and head to happy hour. (on my deck, not in a bar obviously)

Should be a WILD day tomorrow regardless. We could be looking at an easy 25% pop from tomorrow's low within weeks. That might not even be an ATH!

 

[Krugerrand]

Cybertruck is theoretically going to use cold rolled stainless for high strength. This may mean they buy normal coils, then cut and roll to strengthen on site (followed by all the other forming operations). Otherwise, the difficult to bend material needs to be shipped in as sheets/ blanks.
@Krugerrand , how wrong am I?

I would wager you are correct. It makes no sense for Tesla to roll the steel themselves, the vendor should do that. It also would be VERY difficult to flatten the this particular SS after it had been coiled. So, yes - I agree, likely the SS for the body panels will come as precut blanks/sheets of appropriate sizes.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not TA, but rather an observation. Doesn't my as-configured apple stock feed imply some relative strength today?


View attachment 758167

I do not appreciate you posting my phone screen.

 

[Singuy]

You're saying the > 61% CAGR in vehicle delivers for the years 2013 - 2018 was the "poor production hell"?

2013-2014 had 41% increase: 22,442 -> 31,655
2014-2015 had 59% increase: 31,655 -> 50,517
2015-2016 had 50.9% increase: 50,517 -> 76,243
2016-2017 had 35.2% increase: 76,243 -> 103,091
2017-2018 had 138% increase: 103,091 -> 245,491

If this is poor performance then the forward looking 50% CAGR for many more years must be really sucky. That's why the stock is tanking!

Well to be investment grade you need to have positive ebitda margins which tesla did not turn anything consistently positive from inception->1H of 2018. They were ramping production which is a massive drain on margins, hence they want to see how detrimental to margins ramping 2 mega factories will be at the same time, holding off on their investment grade rating.

So growth rate is not important when it comes to rating bonds as investment grade vs junk grade.

 

[Krugerrand]

Royal Lepage is one of the top Realtors in Canada.
Just saw an ad from Royal Lepage while on Youtube.
watch
This is why Tesla does not need to spend a penny on advertising.

Dang, that’s a Tesla ad not a real estate ad. They featured the car!

 

[OrthoSurg]

I'm in full agreement. We're at -9.7% from the recent peak on QQQ and I would imagine it sheds another decent bit tomorrow to take it down near the recent low of $355ish. Seems advantageous to all involved. I would imagine MM's don't care what then happens after options expire this week, their mission is accomplished.

Having TSLA ride this wave down is huge for us. I think we're pretty pegged to $1000 since there are plenty of folks who need shares and realize the bargain. That doesn't mean they can't at least try and push down further at the open tomorrow and see what shakes loose. Hence my moderate LEAP conversion plan.

Really the only reason I didn't already do it is I'm sitting on so many BPS for next week and I'm new enough to it I'd rather not watch them AND try to not screw up a conversion of shares to LEAPs.

If they try for $960(lower BB) at the open tomorrow I'll do it, that's my plan as of now. As in sell at $980, buy the top priority safest LEAPs first, and see if they push down further thru Friday. Sprinkle some YOLOs on top and head to happy hour. (on my deck, not in a bar obviously)

Should be a WILD day tomorrow regardless. We could be looking at an easy 25% pop from tomorrow's low within weeks. That might not even be an ATH!

What LEAPs are you aiming at?

 

[shrspeedblade]

Under 1000? Well, this week was a real Version 11!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Dang, that’s a Tesla ad not a real estate ad. They featured the car!

The girlfriend of one of my best friend I trained with during residency is a Royal Lepage Realtor. She ranked 3rd in whole Canada last year after 2 years in the business. I think I will be able to convince him to switch his Porsche Targa for a Plaid or 3 Performance with this ad. I’ll forward him right away!

 

[hacer]

Well to be investment grade you need to have positive ebitda margins which tesla did not turn anything consistently positive from inception->1H of 2018. They were ramping production which is a massive drain on margins, hence they want to see how detrimental to margins ramping 2 mega factories will be at the same time, holding off on their investment grade rating.

So growth rate is not important when it comes to rating bonds as investment grade vs junk grade.

Sure, nobody expects a good credit rating during a start-up's pre-profitability phase. But you called this phase "poor production hell execution" which it wasn't. Both the production and fiscal execution were very very good during this period.

 

[Singuy]

Sure, nobody expects a good credit rating during a start-up's pre-profitability phase. But you called this phase "poor production hell execution" which it wasn't. Both the production and fiscal execution were very very good during this period.

I was not involved in Tesla back then as I am involved now so I don't know the nitty gritty. But I probably know as much as the rating agencies which means they have biases due to Tesla's execution of the past which involved lots of production delays, Elon saying how he doesn't know what he is doing, some good and some god awful quarters, and almost went through bankruptcy 3 times during the process. So it was years and years of "what else can go wrong with this company" and the sentiment was extremely bearish which suppressed the stock for like 5 years straight. Using a mouse wheel and scrolling back, we see that Tesla's execution was not as terrible as it seems when in the trenches during those years. But that doesn't mean these boomers wouldn't have their bias against a company that spends half a decade barely floating above water.

 

[Joe F]

So, can I assume this was your handiwork?

View attachment 757845

All I see is a poster child for $TSLA shorts: Broke and screwed.

 

[JustMe]

Bitcoin just dumped by -5% in a few hours

I hope it’s irrelevant

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Bitcoin just dumped by -5% in a few hours

I hope it’s irrelevant

That has to do with what the Fed just said in relation to crypto I think

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm still thinking that the ER will be so good that it's not already priced in. It's really hard to imagine a sell the news considering where we are at vs ATH. My only source of worry is if Elon drops some bad news, or says something like "we are going into a recession" or whatever.

As far as bad news, not sure what that could be. It's not like Berlin or Austin will be delayed by a huge amount. Perhaps confirmation of the CT not entering production until 2023 but that's already the assumption.

 

[Maarten]

What effect would Putin invading Ukraine have on the market really?

The huge risk of Russia invading Ukraine is more on my mind than I like.
Not because of my TSLA portfolio, I will do fine.
But because of the unmeasurable pain and misery that the hunger for power of dictators inflicts on everyday people.
Be happy that you had the luck to be born somewhere, where this stays away from your front door.

 

[hoang51]

Tomorrow could be the 2nd of these two expected days, could be the AM for sure or ~ 12:00 EST.. lock and load. In many areas of the NSDQ we’re almost there. Generals have fallen, nobody will be spared, its ALMOST time to pickup the pieces.

Thanks for the update on your view. My opinion is that it was 1/20/2022 that was the second day because QQQ (Nasdaq) dipped below the 200 day SMA, while SPY (S&P500) dipped below 150 day SMA. 1/20's bounce was premature in hindsight. I bought in thinking that was the buying opportunity. Current futures into Friday morning seems to be reversing some of the loss from the earlier evening. So let's see if later today (Friday) is the actual bounce that everybody was hoping for. I would think TSLA would close around $1,000, but who knows where the market makers will take the stock for the final kill of the expiring options. I was hoping $95x would hit on 1/20 by chance, but it didn't, so I decided time to buy. It got low enough near $1,000 mark, so I'm okay with it. Time to get TSLA to rally for next week's earnings.

 

[Ogre]

Dang, that’s a Tesla ad not a real estate ad. They featured the car!

It’s a clever advert. In the advertising industry, everyone knows the secret. It’s those lust inducing curves. A nice looking rear end, that glossy red.

Advertisers know. S3XY sells.

Lots of people love Tesla. Clearly they figure they can lure you into listening to their spiel with a little innuendo about a love interest and a nice car.

It worked. Tesla just gets the free exposure. Apple has enjoyed the benefits of this sort of organic free advertising for years.