Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Accident]

I think macro futures may have had something to do with this. They were going lower but now back to about even.

There was a lot of expectation for the MSFT call today, especially their guidance. The entire tech sector recovered AH as soon as positive guidance was discussed in the call.

 

[Discoducky]

There was a lot of expectation for the MSFT call today, especially their guidance. The entire tech sector recovered AH as soon as positive guidance was discussed in the call.

Looking like a better start to tech earnings season. Now I wonder if Tesla will raise guidance from 50%? or stay the course?

 

[Cherry Wine]

There are two ways to read our current macro situation, in my opinion:

1. Status Quo is Not Priced In / Market Holding its Breath for a U-Turn: Essentially, the market has not fully priced in a March rate increase, quantitative tightening beginning as early as June, and 3 rate hikes this year, and is only where it is because investors are holding out hope for a U-turn from the Fed tomorrow, backing off of the March rate increase. If we don't get that (which is extremely unlikely!), we head lower and are in a bear market for the next 3-6 months. This is the view espoused by Kevin Paffrath on Dave Lee's podcast the other day, and why he liquidated his portfolio.
2. Status Quo is Priced In / Market Worried About "Shock and Awe": In this scenario, the market has priced in 3 rate hikes of .25 basis points and quantitative tightening beginning mid-to-later this year, and has dropped to where it has now because of concern with the possibility of an even more hawkish Fed that will give us more and/or bigger rate increases than already anticipated, and possibly quantitative tightening as soon as March. If the Fed stays the course and does not announce a more hawkish roadmap than what we've already been lead to anticipate, we'll get a relief rally as those fears dissipate.

I think we're in scenario two, and have placed my bets accordingly.

 

[mblakele]

For tomorrow

 

[woodisgood]

Looking like a better start to tech earnings season. Now I wonder if Tesla will raise guidance from 50%? or stay the course?

This is a rhetorical question, right?

 

[Skryll]

There are two ways to read our current macro situation, in my opinion:

1. Status Quo is Not Priced In / Market Holding its Breath for a U-Turn: Essentially, the market has not fully priced in a March rate increase, quantitative tightening beginning as early as June, and 3 rate hikes this year, and is only where it is because investors are holding out hope for a U-turn from the Fed tomorrow, backing off of the March rate increase. If we don't get that (which is extremely unlikely!), we head lower and are in a bear market for the next 3-6 months. This is the view espoused by Kevin Paffrath on Dave Lee's podcast the other day, and why he liquidated his portfolio.
2. Status Quo is Priced In / Market Worried About "Shock and Awe": In this scenario, the market has priced in 3 rate hikes of .25 basis points and quantitative tightening beginning mid-to-later this year, and has dropped to where it has now because of concern with the possibility of an even more hawkish Fed that will give us more and/or bigger rate increases than already anticipated, and possibly quantitative tightening as soon as March. If the Fed stays the course and does not announce a more hawkish roadmap than what we've already been lead to anticipate, we'll get a relief rally as those fears dissipate.

I think we're in scenario two, and have placed my bets accordingly.

I don’t think the only macro risk priced in is apolitical.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There are two ways to read our current macro situation, in my opinion:

1. Status Quo is Not Priced In / Market Holding its Breath for a U-Turn: Essentially, the market has not fully priced in a March rate increase, quantitative tightening beginning as early as June, and 3 rate hikes this year, and is only where it is because investors are holding out hope for a U-turn from the Fed tomorrow, backing off of the March rate increase. If we don't get that (which is extremely unlikely!), we head lower and are in a bear market for the next 3-6 months. This is the view espoused by Kevin Paffrath on Dave Lee's podcast the other day, and why he liquidated his portfolio.
2. Status Quo is Priced In / Market Worried About "Shock and Awe": In this scenario, the market has priced in 3 rate hikes of .25 basis points and quantitative tightening beginning mid-to-later this year, and has dropped to where it has now because of concern with the possibility of an even more hawkish Fed that will give us more and/or bigger rate increases than already anticipated, and possibly quantitative tightening as soon as March. If the Fed stays the course and does not announce a more hawkish roadmap than what we've already been lead to anticipate, we'll get a relief rally as those fears dissipate.

I think we're in scenario two, and have placed my bets accordingly.

I don't know of a single person or entity expecting anything close to a U-turn. Our possibilities appear to be the expected 3 cuts or worse.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I don’t think the only macro risk priced in is apolitical.

What do you mean? Of course this brings to mind the obvious pressures associated with Russia / Ukraine, which I totally left out. I think this has been suppressing dip buying / exacerbating drawdowns.

I don't know of a single person or entity expecting anything close to a U-turn. Our possibilities appear to be the expected 3 cuts or worse.

Agreed, which is why I think "Scenario 1" is not as compelling.

 

[MABMAB]

Hey, I came here for the MSFT forum, why is there a smattering of electric car talk?

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486093183910039554

 

[Big Time]

Wow yes quite the reversal there

 

[FreqFlyer]

Change is at least coming to the yoke, a horn.

Tesla appears to be finally adding a regular horn to its yoke steering wheel

Tesla appears to have finally agreed to walk back one feature of its controversial yoke steering wheel, as it will...

electrek.co

 

[Drumheller]

I think tsla should be going into earnings around 1200 and should leave around 1350, if it's as good as The Accountant estimates.

The current price is undervalued. As such, im not excited about a gap up to the 1100s. Better than 930, I suppose, but I see it as needing to congratulate Wall Street on pushing prices where desired.

 

[Skryll]

What do you mean? Of course this brings to mind the obvious pressures associated with Russia / Ukraine, which I totally left out. I think this has been suppressing dip buying / exacerbating drawdowns.



Agreed, which is why I think "Scenario 1" is not as compelling.

My last post on that was deleted so I don't intend to repeat it. But feel free to PM me for my opinion on the matter

But lets just say, the macro situation could involve more than one dumpster fire.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486106859857596416

Biden to meet with CEOs to discuss Build Back Better agenda

President Biden is set to meet with several corporate executives on Wednesday at the White House to discuss his Build Back Better proposal, a White House official told The Hill on Tuesday.&nbs…

thehill.com

(not trying to make any political stmt)

 

[ZachF]

Hopefully Tesla releases its earnings before the bell rather than after… tired of waiting!

 

[ZachF]

Oh no... Tesla is doomed

GM to spend $6.6 billion on EV plant investments in bid to dethrone Tesla in electric car sales by 2025

GM has projected it will sell more than 1 million EVs globally by mid-decade and overtake Tesla as the top US-based seller of electric vehicles.

www.cnbc.com

Tesla will probably spend ~$15b in capex this year and $22b next year.

If you look at operating cash flow less debt service, Dino auto won’t be able to keep up.

 

[Big Time]

JPOW could crush us all tmrw, we will see. Im gonna wear my lucky socks

 

[ZachF]

Seems to me the folk at GM were taught bad math

View attachment 759982

GM wants to beat Tesla with 1m in capacity by 2025 when Tesla has already demonstrated 1.2m in production capability during Q4 last year…

 

[RobDickinson]

Troy EPS is $2.84 (non gaap)