Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

with Elon's FSD "prediction". I predict he'll be wrong yet again.

I agree, but it really only has to beat the timeline for demand not keeping up with production of the current product lineup. At least, that's how I look at it. And if it isn't solved, then Tesla would pull other demand levers. I hope that doesn't happen though.

 

[82bert]

I’m sorry, but anyone that listened to that call in its entirety and didn’t come away more bullish than ever is incredibly myopic or clueless and distracted by their own personal priorities. And this is coming from someone who desperately wants a CT.

Ignore the noise. Things are brighter than ever. ACCUMULATE, don’t just HODL.

 

[GOVA]

One interpretation is that Tesla is working on vehicle(s) optimised for robo-taxi, just not one that would cost as little as $25K.

Elon learnt his lesson with the $35K Model 3. Between announcement and being ready to sell the cheapest version inflation had increased that $35K to about $38K, but they had to sell it for $35K (as a special order). He will make sure he does not commit to a price many years before production starts, especially if inflation is higher now.

Exactly. Just don't ask about 25K car being worked on. Instead, ask about another/sub-compact/whatever car just don't mention the price. The answer might be very different.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

I'm not sure how they then get to 20 million cars a year before 2030, as previously announced as a target.... If you're replacing every 5 cars with 1 robotaxi--- there's not nearly 100 million cars sold NOW per year.... if you were replacing all new cars 5:1 with RTs you'd only have what like 10-15 million TOTAL sold in a year? (for the entire vehicle market combined)


One thing I kinda wish someone had asked about... Elon previously mentioned a next-gen sensor suite for FSD (upgraded cameras and HW4 computer at least) and suggested it would be likely be introduced in Cybertruck in mid-late 2022. Now that we know no CT this year- is the sensor suite likewise pushed back till 2023 at least?

There are around 1 billion cars in the world currently, correct?
So even at a 1-5 ratio, that takes 200 million robotaxis to replace.

Perhaps a lot more, since above is steady-state.
But, given that, if Elon is right, the future price of robotaxi miles are really cheap, then demand will explode.
So a lot more than 200 million robotaxies are needed.

 

[FireMedic]

There will be, another

Another gap? Btw good move responding to me because you’re on ignore, so I would otherwise have not seen your (as always) enlightening comment. /s

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

"The best product roadmap is no product roadmap" - Elon Musk.

Old roadmap: Lots of car models.
New roadmap: TAAS!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not just Bay area employees, Buffalo as well
https://mobile.twitter.com/giganewyork

Not sure I follow your point: are you saying that Buffalo labor gets expensed to R&D? (isn't it mostly production of solar and superchargers?) Because that was the topic at hand, ie: where the large R&D budget is being spent, since Elon says they're NOT working on the $25K car right now (which would cost some development $$ )

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm thinking that Model Y demand, CT demand, FSD timeline have changed that substantially. Once you get FSD, can just make robotaxi's when demand slows for non-robotaxis.

So, robotaxis fills the gap that the $25k car did previously.

That might not be the answer folks want to hear though, but I'm really happy for my CT reservations with this in mind.

IMO people are reading too much into the earnings call comments.

The 25K car is being designed in China, if there is a constraint on engineering talent it is the China team supporting and ramping Model 3/Y production.
Or possibly the China team working on localization parts, adapting products to the Chinese market, Superchargers etc.

However, there is a limited set of things the Chinese team could be working on, if they are too busy to do the 25K car, they will not be too busy forever.

But if some parts are in short supply it makes more sense to build more Model 3/Y then it does to spin up new production lines to built some 25K cars with the available parts.

I think the 25K car will have FSD, it is an important model for the EU and Asia, being a size more suited to their streets and parking spaces.

I've long thought the 25K car needs the HW 4,0 chip, and perhaps new cameras for economic reasons

That is a potential point of contention between, FSD, Optimus, Dojo and the 25K car.

Tesla hasn't said they are abandoning work on the 25K car.

It seems like most new vehicles are being worked on quietly in the background and Tesla wants to be sure supply chian constraints are fully resolved before they start producing new models. I see this as, wanting production of existing models to be ticking over in an efficient and problem free manner before starting on new model production. So make sure the first fire is out, before lighting the 2nd one.

 

[nativewolf]

I'm in the boat of FSD? neat! Pick me up in Missouri. Even today it might make sense for people to uber somewhere but they dont. I personally don't see FSD having this great impact unless the unit cost to use one are really low. Really low.

Secondly on the FSD thing...many peoples cars are full of stuff, my wife golfs so her car has extra boxs of golf balls, a spare wedge, maybe a collapsable cart, hats etc. She and her friends all have cars that look like this, all golfers. Others are into other things but I don't know many people who have cars without personal belongings.
Based on my admittedly personal experiences I don't see the average jack and jill letting out their car as a robotaxi. I could see Tesla having a fleet of them of course. No personal belongings, centralized charging, cleanup crews.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

That's nonsense. Telsa has stated clearly they intend to reach 20M/yr auto production by 2030. They can not do that without entering all major auto segments.

Which by the way was EXACTLY what Elon said they'd do in the Secret Master Plan.

I think in Elon's mind cars are done. Clearly they can expand production of 3/Y right up to the point where it'd be insane for anyone to continue pumping out ice of any kind. A few years from now and the Toyotas of the world will fill the $25k gap completely. What's the point in Tesla doing it if they don't have to?

This board(for the most part) STILL doesn't appreciate Energy and the crazy margins/revenue it will bring. If we're choosing between a $25k model and scaling Megapack production, I'll take the Energy expansion for sure

This may come as a shock, but replacing the entire world's fossil energy infrastructure with renewables + storage is a bigger market than making taxis that drive themselves. I'm headed to the USVI soon, God willing, the opportunity just there is in the hundreds of millions in earnings.

CT and Semi need to be ramped, then that's about it. Everything automotive is clearly well in hand and taking over the world on autopilot. @The Accountant 's auto-primary earnings projections can probably be set in stone as a minimum thru 2025. But the boom from there onward will be in Energy. We don't need 20M cars.

 

[jkirkwood001]

C'mon! I don't agree with all the whining about this call! (Waaah no Cybertruck!
Waaah no Model 2!
Waaah no Roadster!)

Okay, as a Tesla enthusiast, ii get it. But as an investor (what's this forum called again?) they are basically saying "in 2022 we're going to focus production on making more cars and more profit. Oh and as we ramp, we'll focus R&D on high-value-add FSD and AI robot."

What's not to like??

 

[Electroman]

This year: No CT. No Semi. No Roadster.

Disappointing and quite surprising given that we heard so much noise about Semi delivery to Pepsi this quarter.

 

[RobDickinson]

Right now it costs tesla about what 24k euros to make a model 3 SR? Thats without structural packs , 4680s etc.

They'll reduce that and ramp up volume no one can get close

 

[mongo]

Not sure I follow your point: are you saying that Buffalo labor gets expensed to R&D? (isn't it mostly production of solar and superchargers?) Because that was the topic at hand, ie: where the large R&D budget is being spent, since Elon says they're NOT working on the $25K car right now (which would cost some development $$ )

Some of the Buffalo employees are FSD labelers/ AP.
Tesla Hires At New York Gigafactory For Autopilot And FSD Beta

 

[RobDickinson]

This year: No CT. No Semi. No Roadster.

Disappointing and quite surprising given that we heard so much noise about Semi delivery to Pepsi this quarter.

There will be preproduction Semi in customer hands this year.

I still think there will be a reveal and launch of the CT this year but no volume sales until next.

We already knew the Semi and Roadster were back to 2023 for production

 

[Coachrich]

Didn't answer major question regarding Model Y and 4680's. How will Austin and Fremont differ? Produce two entirely different cars? Shift Fremont to M3/S? How do you know where your car is coming from if you order? Nobody wants the older battery technology when ordering today. Would be like ordering an iPhone 13 and they send you the 12.

 

[Electroman]

C'mon! I don't agree with all the whining about this call! (Waaah no Cybertruck!
Waaah no Model 2!
Waaah no Roadster!)

Okay, as a Tesla enthusiast, ii get it. But as an investor (what's this forum called again?) they are basically saying "in 2022 we're going to focus production on making more cars and more profit. Oh and as we ramp, we'll focus R&D on high-value-add FSD and AI robot."

What's not to like??

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tenor.com

If making profits was the motive - which they already do today - Tesla could have been a niche luxury manufacturer just making Model S & Y.

 

[RobDickinson]

Didn't answer major question regarding Model Y and 4680's. How will Austin and Fremont differ? Produce two entirely different cars? Shift Fremont to M3/S? How do you know where your car is coming from if you order? Nobody wants the older battery technology when ordering today. Would be like ordering an iPhone 13 and they send you the 12.

I guess they continue being Tesla and supplying vehicles that meet the minimum spec regardless of whats inside.

 

[CLK350]

Not at all happy about Semi and Cybertruck, or with Elon's FSD "prediction". I predict he'll be wrong yet again. The focus on Optimus sub-prime is interesting, and I'm glad they are not working on the $25K car, but for me this was a very disappointing call.

I have a different take: they said they are not announcing new products because they are battery constrained, chip constrained, it would reduce their profits - they already are producing at full capacity and selling all they can produce, plus they can also increase their prices as they have done recently. Streamlining and continuing to work on improving performance/ capabilities and costs of existing projects has them fully occupied.

Edit 3 re above correction re chip constrained, not battery constrained, thanks @82bert for this - though the point still stands, it would not make sense as it would reduce their profits and add complexity.

Edit 1: added this screenshot of Elon's making this point - Question for all who are deploring no Model 25K or CT - did you even listen to Tesla's 4Q livestream?

From an investor POV it should be super bullish - but fear not, I am expectantly looking forward to what new FUD will come out tomorrow - if not Tesla specific, it will be from the macros. My brains tells me to expect middling up, then sideways trading for a while since the stakes are so high for the financial industry which makes its profits from inefficient existing companies (oil and gas, utilities, plastics,building, pharma, armaments, big agriculture, large companies not small businesses .. ) none of which benefits from Tesla's advances ( actually the unions definitely don't like Optimus, at least the union leaders since they'd lose their lucrative "jobs" ) .

Edit 2: I believe the reason Elon wanted to be on the 4Q earnings call was really to present is revised road map, waaayyyy more ambitious than any of us would have imagined, in line with his "Believe in the Future" tweet: he sees Tesla now as more than a car and energy company, even a transportation company, it's really an understated way of presenting his Tesla Master plan Part Trois - Optimus Prime and all this entails

Dave Lee explained this best in his short video

 

[Artful Dodger]

For all the many, many quarterly calls during which Mr Musk has spoken glowingly of FSD.....he is now doubling...tripling...quadrupling down in putting his reputation and believability on the line with its real, tangible, dollar impact on Tesla in CY 2022.

Elon might be ready in 2022, the FSD NNs might be ready for the road in 2022, but I guarantee that Missy Cummings won't be ready in 2022... nor as long as she's getting a paycheque.