Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FireMedic]

I'm in the boat of FSD? neat! Pick me up in Missouri. Even today it might make sense for people to uber somewhere but they dont. I personally don't see FSD having this great impact unless the unit cost to use one are really low. Really low.

Secondly on the FSD thing...many peoples cars are full of stuff, my wife golfs so her car has extra boxs of golf balls, a spare wedge, maybe a collapsable cart, hats etc. She and her friends all have cars that look like this, all golfers. Others are into other things but I don't know many people who have cars without personal belongings.
Based on my admittedly personal experiences I don't see the average jack and jill letting out their car as a robotaxi. I could see Tesla having a fleet of them of course. No personal belongings, centralized charging, cleanup crews.

I don’t think the average jack and Jill are golfing everyday. Honestly I generally agree with your thought process here. I have tons of junk in my car and wouldn’t be so eager to use robotaxi instead.

However, I Think it’s important to, instead of focusing on the people it won’t work for…shift your focus to the millions of others who use public transportation daily.

Sure, it’s likely not ideal for me; but I’m not the end user that it’s being designed for. I have disposable income and love owning and driving a car. But if it were safe and cheap I would gladly use it to shuffle my kids to school or sports, deliver my groceries to me, or run other menial errands.

 

[CLK350]

Didn't answer major question regarding Model Y and 4680's. How will Austin and Fremont differ? Produce two entirely different cars? Shift Fremont to M3/S? How do you know where your car is coming from if you order? Nobody wants the older battery technology when ordering today. Would be like ordering an iPhone 13 and they send you the 12.

Why worry about it ... they have thousands of folks ea smarter, harder working and battle proven than the top 99 percentile of TMC folks in here

Edit: 99 not 90 now that I reflect more about it - smart meaning real life smart, the way Elon is smart

Full disclosure, I confess I am like all the TMC folks here above average (all the TMC folks here

 

[Artful Dodger]

Eggs/Elon/Basket

"No more bet-the-company products" - E.M. 2018.

Remember that one?

 

[tivoboy]

Another gap? Btw good move responding to me because you’re on ignore, so I would otherwise have not seen your (as always) enlightening comment. /s

Well, then you missed out on about 50% in the past 45 days... sad for you.

 

[Knightshade]

Didn't answer major question regarding Model Y and 4680's. How will Austin and Fremont differ? Produce two entirely different cars? Shift Fremont to M3/S? How do you know where your car is coming from if you order? Nobody wants the older battery technology when ordering today. Would be like ordering an iPhone 13 and they send you the 12.

Kinda did address. Suggested Austin would supply the middle/eastern part of the US. Which suggests the west would supply from Freemont.

Likely specs will be the same to avoid the exact issues you cite. Most buyers don't know or care what the cell shape is if the specs are the same.

(note I'm talking top line specs like range, 0-60.... likely there'll be some weight difference from structural 4680, and some more subtle ones elsewhere)

IMO people are reading too much into the earnings call comments.

The 25K car is being designed in China

How did you get that out of Elon literally saying "We are not working on a $25,000 car"?

Not sure I follow your point: are you saying that Buffalo labor gets expensed to R&D? (isn't it mostly production of solar and superchargers?) Because that was the topic at hand

No, the topic was where the labelers are.

You claimed they were all in the bay area- multiple posters corrected you, including the one you're replying to here who directly posted labeler job listings at the Tesla factory in Buffalo NY.

Elon might be ready in 2022, the FSD NNs might be ready for the road in 2022, but I guarantee that Missy Cummings won't be ready in 2022... nor as long as she's getting a paycheque.

Why do you think that would matter? She's already recused from Tesla issues- and the NHTSA doesn't regulate self driving at all today.

The whole "We need approval from regulators" thing remains a nonsense red herring. You can run robotaxis today in multiple US states if you believe/certify your technology is safe and capable of it. With 0 additional approvals required from any agency.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If FSD is solved, no 25K car

So no FSD in Rome, then? Because 3/Y WILL NOT fit on their streets. Think this though: FSD is software which will run on ALL vehicles made by Tesla, from Semi down to the smallest car.

The only feasible alternative is licensing FSD to a automaker for their small car, but Tesla has a track record of literally ZERO success in technology transfer. Not thought through yet into a workable business.

 

[82bert]

I have a different take: they said they are not announcing new products because they are battery constrained, it would reduce their profits - they already are producing at full capacity and selling all they can produce, plus they can also increase their prices as they have done recently. Streamlining and continuing to work on improving performance/ capabilities and costs of existing projects has them fully occupied.

From an investor POV it should be super bullish - but fear not, I am expectantly looking forward to what new FUD will come out tomorrow - if not Tesla specific, it will be from the macros. My brains tells me to expect middling up, then sideways trading for a while since the stakes are so high for the financial industry which makes its profits from inefficient existing companies (oil and gas, utilities, plastics,building, pharma, armaments, big agriculture, large companies not small businesses .. ) none of which benefits from Tesla's advances ( actually the unions definitely don't like Optimus, at least the union leaders since they'd lose their lucrative "jobs" ) .

They actually stated the opposite regarding cells. They are NOT battery constrained. Chip and other supply issues are the rate limiting factors.

I think the CT is delayed for 2 primary reasons. One is that launching it this year while also ramping up 2 factories on different continents will only further delay their ability to get vehicles in customers hands. The other reason is that it sounds like they’re trying to get the cost of the CT down while still providing as much of the amazing tech they can get into it. I’m confident they start deliveries Q1 2023.

 

[InTheShadows]

I think we should be focusing on the true American EV Leader, GM with their meeting with Ford and POTUS tonight. That is what really should be in the news and the target of our discussions for where EV’s are headed.

 

[heltok]

My thoughts:

It was pretty boring, but maybe that’s good. Tesla will focus on scaling for a while. Delivering, not just talking about ideas. We customers might be hungry for a new CT, a new Roadster etc, but what’s best for the stock and the world is probably to just pump out Ys until they have solved batteries and semiconductors. Which unfortuneately will take until next year as this year will be another year of lack of supply. We will see how Omicron(BA.2) and China’s zero covid plays out in the next year and if this effects supply chains all over the world.

One thing I like was that Elon said that ideas don’t matter, what matter is actually shipping in scale. But then I found that he deflected a few questions by going crazy with ideas about FSD making less parking space needed, buses becoming less popular etc. I agree with him, but until we are there focus should have been on shipping.

Some of us might have misunderstood non-4680 LFP or Dojo as something else than just a cost saving etc. We need to process this new information, but it’s not really any disappointments here. Dojo maybe becoming a cost saving first in 2023 and maybe not at all as GPU and other offers from competition is evolving alongside Dojo over time was to be expected but still some of us were dreaming of seeing 10x this year, which clearly is not happening.

Tesla bot aka Optimus Prime seems to be a much bigger deal than I thought. Tesla are starting to work on production this year, while $25k car is not getting any development. Clearly Elon thinks that the bot is gonna be huge and be ready pretty soon and to be willing to take resources from the rest of the development already. The bot is probably more important to understanding the value of TSLA than the $25k car and the $25k has been pretty central to the 2030 bull case.

Not even sure if there will be a $25k car for many years. If Robotaxi is gonna be huge and come soon, making a car optimized for robotaxi seems more important. A car that can run many miles before interior, engine, wheels etc needs to be replaced, that is easy to get in&out of, with comfortable seating and with long range. Which probably will cost more like $50-100k than $25k. Think like an ugly squared minivan with king sized chairs and sliding doors on one side. And IF Robotaxi actually comes then OMG we are in for some pretty fun times with the stock price. Elon might have not been exaggerating with his greatest appreciating in history and I think we should start to consider what effect this would have on real estate prices and what new businesses will be enabled by this. And if he is not exaggerating with the Optimus Prime, we will soon have a world that looks like this:

And I am not sure how I feel about that…

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm in the boat of FSD? neat! Pick me up in Missouri. Even today it might make sense for people to uber somewhere but they dont. I personally don't see FSD having this great impact unless the unit cost to use one are really low. Really low.

Secondly on the FSD thing...many peoples cars are full of stuff, my wife golfs so her car has extra boxs of golf balls, a spare wedge, maybe a collapsable cart, hats etc. She and her friends all have cars that look like this, all golfers. Others are into other things but I don't know many people who have cars without personal belongings.
Based on my admittedly personal experiences I don't see the average jack and jill letting out their car as a robotaxi. I could see Tesla having a fleet of them of course. No personal belongings, centralized charging, cleanup crews.

FSD possibly eventually includes being able to hire a Robotaxi for a day or a week, the line between Robotaxi and hire car might be blurred.

Some people will want to owe a private car, and not let it operate as a Robotaxi.

Some people will unload all their gear, before sending the car out to work as a Robotraxi.

Some people will buy a new car, and let the old one work as a Robotaxi.

Radio didn't fully replace the Newspaper, TV didn't fully replace radio, etc, the old model and the new model always co-exist and people decide which one they prefer to use at any point in time, Some may take a Robotaxi to work, because the car has been washed and is loaded up with gear for the weekend trip.
Next week they will drive the car to work, on Friday they may let the car drive them home.

Overall these is more choice, not less choice.

 

[EVDRVN]

"No more bet-the-company products" - E.M. 2018.

Remember that one?

I do, I also remember all the FSD dates

 

[kaczmarczyk]

They actually stated the opposite regarding cells. They are NOT battery constrained. Chip and other supply issues are the rate limiting factors.

I think the CT is delayed for 2 primary reasons. One is that launching it this year while also ramping up 2 factories on different continents will only further delay their ability to get vehicles in customers hands. The other reason is that it sounds like they’re trying to get the cost of the CT down while still providing as much of the amazing tech they can get into it. I’m confident they start deliveries Q1 2023.

I don't understand trying to get the cost down on the Cybertruck. They have released pricing previously when the car was unveiled and they certainly have enough demand to up the price to cover inflation/supply chain costs passed to them since. Tesla is clearly raising prices on their other products already.

I agree that the chip situation is limiting the total output even if they could scale manufacturing of the Cybertruck.

 

[Discoducky]

Elon might be ready in 2022, the FSD NNs might be ready for the road in 2022, but I guarantee that Missy Cummings won't be ready in 2022... nor as long as she's getting a paycheque.

The path to solving FSD does go through NHTSA, but that path is cleared when Tesla can demonstrate its massive fleet achieving 1 billion miles (yep, will need to be about that big as even the safest human driver would create an accident over that many miles) of hands free completed routes on geo-fenced roads.

Why? That kind of data will demonstrate saving lives (as does AP today) and impossible for an org like NHTSA to ignore (even if they have TSLAQ sympathizers at the helm).

I say geo-fenced as robotaxi will most likely be put into production without support for every road in a given locale.

 

[RobDickinson]

Do NHTSA or any other agency actually have a set of requirements or tests , or safety standards that they could actually point to as a necessary achievement to pass?

 

[Budding]

I am disappointed to hear about the cheaper model. I guess they are very confident about demand for 3 and Y for the short term. I don't think FSD is enough to compensate for the lack of the cheaper model.

Of course, he said no to the 25k model, but Tesla could end up selling a 35k model after lower costs from 4680 etc. I think a cheaper model about 30-35k (current prices) is needed to grow the TAM. People who are going to buy FSD for 12k (or more) are ones who can afford to spend 50-60k on a car. But if sales have to grow way beyond 5M, a cheaper car than the current ones is needed. I think Tesla will eventually solve FSD to the point it is consistent largely and that will help revenues. I am not sold on robotaxis since that requires FSD to be way more refined than a personal use case. Plus there will be regulatory issues. I see many including robotaxis in their valuations but I think it is important to not get carried away. Tesla is yet to solve FSD, let alone robotaxis.

 

[Artful Dodger]

1. We plan on making greater than 50% more cars this year.
2. We don’t anticipate any supply issues (batteries or chips) preventing us from achieving that
3. We can keep the sticker price where it is and sell every car we make this year
4. Our margins will continue to improve throughout the year.
5. This will be a big year for our energy business too.
6. FSD is the biggest free option attached to a share of stock in the history of the world. A significant piece of that value may get unlocked this year.

Bullish AF. Everything else is noise.

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit". Thank-you.

 

[Knightshade]

BTW in case anyone doubted that the mainstream headlines would be from the call:

The $25,000 Tesla Is as Dead as the $35,000 Tesla

We're starting to think there won't ever be a "cheap" Tesla...

www.motortrend.com

I don't understand trying to get the cost down on the Cybertruck. They have released pricing previously when the car was unveiled and they certainly have enough demand to up the office to cover inflation/supply chain costs pissed to then since. Tesla is clearly raising prices on their other products already.

They since removed that pricing, and after the call today it's pretty obvious they currently wouldn't have been able to hit those targets and are actively working to try and get costs down.

Do NHTSA or any other agency actually have a set of requirements or tests , or safety standards that they could actually point to as a necessary achievement to pass?

Nope.

As I mentioned- you can put a robotaxi on the road tomorrow- legally- in a number of US states without needing to say a word, or get any approval from, the feds.

Waymos running them in a tiny AZ suburb right now, but that's not the only place you can do it legally right now if you believe your tech is safe enough and meets all requirements (which at the state levels in question is basically just it's insured, and can follow all the same driving laws a human can)

 

[RobDickinson]

Of course, he said no to the 25k model,

They didnt. They said not actively developing a '$25k car' right now.

 

[Discoducky]

I don't understand trying to get the cost down on the Cybertruck. They have released pricing previously when the car was unveiled and they certainly have enough demand to up the office to cover inflation/supply chain costs pissed to then since. Tesla is clearly raising prices on their other products already.

That worried me as well, since it seems that the production processes, materials and design should all be much more efficient in creating value.

My takeaway from this, even though it was stated about CT being a 1/4M per year vehicle, is that CT is meant to be more of a primary robotaxi vehicle, driving 24/7, 4 million+ miles lifetime...rock solid.

Nothing like that has ever been built, but fits within the stated design paradigms. That is a total guess though...

 

[Flehmenlips]

I don't understand trying to get the cost down on the Cybertruck. They have released pricing previously when the car was unveiled and they certainly have enough demand to up the office to cover inflation/supply chain costs pissed to then since. Tesla is clearly raising prices on their other products already.

I agree. I say release a "Roadster" or at least "MX Plaid" version of the Cybertruck. Price it at $70-90k, optioned out to $130k. I would still buy two. I currently have a Model X and a Range Rover as my placeholders and they are both in the $120-130k range. I would trade them for two CTs in a heartbeat at that price.