Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

Meanwhile Optimus just staring at me as I take a shower?

Scrubbing your back, or...whatever.

 

[WADan]

I normally love what you write, but with this sentence, I think it might be better to say that "If you don't believe Elon will EVER deliver full FSD..."

I think we all participate in this shared amazing experience that is Tesla/Elon as we do believe he will deliver...someday.

I told my AP team once, when we were working with SpaceX on their Dragon capsule UI, that developing a rocket that can land itself is super easy RELATIVE to FSD. And that time I couldn't dream of making a rocket land itself, but I was TOTALLY bought in on creating FSD. Elon is bought in and will make it happen, it just isn't a matter of will or effort or patience, it is just a matter of time.

“It is just a matter of time”.
Hahahaha, (1). Maybe, a long long long time. (2). Nobody knows if it’ even possible.
Don’t get me wrong, I certainly hope it’s coming soon. But, it remains to be hopeful thinking!

 

[Ipcress]

I think there is a current, pressing world-wide need, and huge financial opportunity for Tesla to make the smaller form-factor car. OK, don't call it a $25K car, whatever. Shorter range, less expensive, but with Tesla quality, design, software and safety. And no, don't leave it to Toyota or similar to fill that niche. Many of you know that all over Europe, Asia, India, and elsewhere the current Tesla line-up of cars are simply too big to negotiate the city and town streets, and too expensive for the populations.

I'll bet the new "China design studio" team and fans in that country were surprised at today's announcement, and China's OEM's are likely salivating at the opportunity to take over that market. I'm looking forward to FSD, whenever it comes, but if you think Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster have been hard to execute and long delayed, do you think a truely useful AI animated humanoid robot will be any better? I'm a bit discouraged, and hoping Tesla and Elon keep laser focus on the environment and climate change, energy storage and the transition to renewables.

 

[buttershrimp]

I think there is a current, pressing world-wide need, and huge financial opportunity for Tesla to make the smaller form-factor car. OK, don't call it a $25K car, whatever. Shorter range, less expensive, but with Tesla quality, design, software and safety. And no, don't leave it to Toyota or similar to fill that niche. Many of you know that all over Europe, Asia, India, and elsewhere the current Tesla line-up of cars are simply too big to negotiate the city and town streets, and too expensive for the populations.

I'll bet the new "China design studio" team and fans in that country were surprised at today's announcement, and China's OEM's are likely salivating at the opportunity to take over that market. I'm looking forward to FSD, whenever it comes, but if you think Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster have been hard to execute and long delayed, do you think a truely useful AI animated humanoid robot will be any better? I'm a bit discouraged, and hoping Tesla and Elon keep laser focus on the environment and climate change, energy storage and the transition to renewables.

They already came out with the 25k car …. Cyberquad for Kids: Tesla Electric 4-Wheeler ATV | Radio Flyer

 

[Mark Alset]

1,000,000 lifetime miles
$0.20 revenue per mile
$200,000 total revenue
-$57,000 cost of vehicle
$143,000 profit / 10 years
~25% annual return on investment

If the numbers line up to something like this I'll be buying as many as I can to go make me money.

Yes, this is the way. Another thing to consider--once FSD is enabled, this is going to drive massive growth in Tesla's energy division (and any other company that sells solar systems). People who own FSD cars will be foolish if they don't also purchase enough solar panels to offset energy usage of the FSD-enabled cars.

The amount of profit one makes per mile is inversely correlated with electricity rate. Purchasing solar will, after payback period, drive electricity rate to zero, which increases $profit/mile for the life of the car and solar array.

Put another way, people who own FSD-enabled cars plus solar will be able to undercut and steal business/rides from people who don't own solar. This will precipitate a race to the bottom (unless Tesla sets a floor on the $/mi that someone can charge for use of FSD-enabled cars).

It's absolutely nutty to think about, how the economics of FSD, and FSD itself, will massively accelerate the transition to clean energy. FSD is likely to represent a singularity in human civilization--pre FSD and post FSD. Post FSD: how people and things in the civilized world get around will be different, how the civilized world sources energy will be different (bye bye oil Cos). And Tesla, if they are the first to solve FSD, they are positioned to capitalize financially (on a massive scale) once this post-FSD world emerges.

 

[jkirkwood001]

So no FSD in Rome, then? Because 3/Y WILL NOT fit on their streets. Think this though: FSD is software which will run on ALL vehicles made by Tesla, from Semi down to the smallest car.

The only feasible alternative is licensing FSD to a automaker for their small car, but Tesla has a track record of literally ZERO success in technology transfer. Not thought through yet into a workable business.

Yeah, the other barrier to people choosing a robotaxi over a bus, as Elon said is a bus carries ~5x more people per lane-space than a car. Where are all the single-user robotaxis going to fit on the roads??

My lay partner pointed this out when I was glowing about the earnings call. Seems like an obvious issue, no? Requires Boring solutions?

 

[uujjj2]

What's going on with the Cybertruck delays, and the Roadster and Semi delays, in a sense, is that the Model Y is such a hit. The Model Y is in such hot demand that Tesla basically cannot muster the raw resources to build new products right now. Every incremental battery cell, chip, tire, or roll of aluminum, every extra square inch of factory space, is better used to build the Y. There's going to be two huge factories that build nothing but Y this year, and two other factories building more Y than anything else.

In 2022, Tesla is the Y.

It's amazing that the Y, the least hyped car in Tesla's history, the car that was barely mentioned at its own launch, is the car that's made Tesla into a cash cow.

 

[lafrisbee]

1.3 million ants put a hundred down for a cyber(nota)truck.
You really don't want to visit the Mound right now.

 

[MC3OZ]

I think there is a current, pressing world-wide need, and huge financial opportunity for Tesla to make the smaller form-factor car. OK, don't call it a $25K car, whatever. Shorter range, less expensive, but with Tesla quality, design, software and safety. And no, don't leave it to Toyota or similar to fill that niche. Many of you know that all over Europe, Asia, India, and elsewhere the current Tesla line-up of cars are simply too big to negotiate the city and town streets, and too expensive for the populations.

I'll bet the new "China design studio" team and fans in that country were surprised at today's announcement, and China's OEM's are likely salivating at the opportunity to take over that market. I'm looking forward to FSD, whenever it comes, but if you think Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster have been hard to execute and long delayed, do you think a truely useful AI animated humanoid robot will be any better? I'm a bit discouraged, and hoping Tesla and Elon keep laser focus on the environment and climate change, energy storage and the transition to renewables.

The BYD EA1 (Dolphin) is already a fairly good compact entry level EV.

IMO Tesla are still making the $25K car, Elon's answers are always honest, but he chooses where he places the emphasis.

I think the Tesla China team will do a good job, even going head-to-head with BYD which will not be easy.

If we are looking for a key differentiator that the $25K Tesla should have which the Chinese competition should not have for a few years, FSD is that difference.

IMO the Chinese are also likely to be 2nd on FSD, but making a $25K car with FSD is a tough target even for the Chinese.

 

[Knightshade]

(And remember Tesla has never promised that they will include Rideshare features

Of course they did.

using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissable on the Tesla network, details of which will be released next year"

Of course many "next years" have come and gone with no details since then.

My lay partner pointed this out when I was glowing about the earnings call. Seems like an obvious issue, no? Requires Boring solutions?

Elon already mentioned exactly that as a solution.


Though his math is weird here--- if there's suddenly 1 RT replacing 5 cars, there should be less traffic.

 

[The Accountant]

I was surprised that earnings was relatively low at only $2.54 a share. I'd have expected a knock out of the park for PD > 300k in the high 2.x or even $3.

These earnings were good, but lower than hoped for.

However, watching Dave's YT revealed the issue. Tesla paid an extra $340M in payroll taxes due to Elon's stock selling/exercising spree in Q4.

Adding that $340M to the profits would put the earnings solidly into the 2.8x range, so the profit model for Tesla is fully intact. If so, this was indeed a home run quarter!

Can someone else (cough cough @The Accountant ) confirm previous projections did not factor in the payroll tax?

My projections did not factor in the payroll tax on Elon's exercised options. I don't believe anyone else had that factored into their forecasts.
It is a one time item that analysts should back out. Excluding the payroll tax, EPS would have been $2.84.

 

[loquitur]

No, at Model 3 intro they said $35,000 for the car, before the tax credit.

They DID eventually make and sell a very few at that price (the SR, no plus) then quickly got rid of it.

Correct -- I do know about the SR (no plus), and the $35K MSRP promise *before* tax credit.

I'm just saying that my 2018 Tesla Model 3 cost $35K MSRP before tax credit, but before options.
Just normalizing this to what all car dealers do with their Monroney label sticker, or whatever
it's called. I thought, hmm... I got that $35K MSRP car as promised, even though I paid up
from "base", but I personally didn't wait for some ersatz stripped version.

(Aside: But it was even better in hindsight, 'cuz my Sept. 2018 build Tesla was even cheaper than it is now
sans tax credit, and not just because I only paid $1K for blue paint vs. some who paid $1500, or $4K for AWD
vs. $5K that some paid, or only $1K for delivery (from Fremont, < 30 miles away) that went up to $1200
or whatever it is now) but because I got FSD for only $5K w/no EAP prior when it went "on sale". All
early adopter benefits, apparently.)

 

[jkirkwood001]

The path to solving FSD does go through NHTSA, but that path is cleared when Tesla can demonstrate its massive fleet achieving 1 billion miles (yep, will need to be about that big as even the safest human driver would create an accident over that many miles) of hands free completed routes on geo-fenced roads.

Why? That kind of data will demonstrate saving lives (as does AP today) and impossible for an org like NHTSA to ignore (even if they have TSLAQ sympathizers at the helm).

I say geo-fenced as robotaxi will most likely be put into production without support for every road in a given locale.

They just need one national jurisdiction (e.g. Norway, Canada, etc.) to approve FSD to generate data that does it crashes less and saves more lives than humans. NHTSA and other jurisdictions will follow, traffic variations notwithstanding.

 

[Skipdd]

Yes, this is the way. Another thing to consider--once FSD is enabled, this is going to drive massive growth in Tesla's energy division (and any other company that sells solar systems). People who own FSD cars will be foolish if they don't also purchase enough solar panels to offset energy usage of the FSD-enabled cars.

The amount of profit one makes per mile is inversely correlated with electricity rate. Purchasing solar will, after payback period, drive electricity rate to zero, which increases $profit/mile for the life of the car and solar array.

Put another way, people who own FSD-enabled cars plus solar will be able to undercut and steal business/rides from people who don't own solar. This will precipitate a race to the bottom (unless Tesla sets a floor on the $/mi that someone can charge for use of FSD-enabled cars).

It's absolutely nutty to think about, how the economics of FSD, and FSD itself, will massively accelerate the transition to clean energy. FSD is likely to represent a singularity in human civilization--pre FSD and post FSD. Post FSD: how people and things in the civilized world get around will be different, how the civilized world sources energy will be different (bye bye oil Cos). And Tesla, if they are the first to solve FSD, they are positioned to capitalize financially (on a massive scale) once this post-FSD world emerges.

I guess this where the concept of an integrated HVAC/Solar/Powerwall/Water Heater all comes in as well. Huge efficiency improvement. I need it…yesterday

 

[Knightshade]

I'm just saying that my 2018 AWD cost $35K MSRP before tax credit, but before options.

There was no such thing as a $35,000 AWD model 3 though.

And outside of a brief couple months there was no $35,000 model 3 at all- it's not really an "option" if you do not have an option about including it or not.

(Aside: But it was even better in hindsight, 'cuz my Sept. 2018 build Tesla was even cheaper than it is now
sans tax credit, and not just because I only paid $1K for blue paint vs. some who paid $1500, or $4K for AWD
vs. $5K that some paid, or only $1K for delivery (from Fremont, < 30 miles away) that went up to $1200
or whatever it is now) but because I got FSD for only $5K w/no EAP prior when it went "on sale". All
early adopter benefits, apparently.)

Sure. Total price is higher now. You do get stuff like a heat pump, heated steering wheel, double paned glass, significantly more range, MCU3, etc of course now... (but no homelink, passenger lumbar, or included 14-50 adapter)

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Though his math is weird here--- if there's suddenly 1 RT replacing 5 cars, there should be less traffic.

The robotaxi has to drive 5x as much as one of the 5 cars it’s replacing, so in a perfect world the traffic would be the same. But then the robotaxi has to drive a little farther unoccupied to get to the next pickup location, so really there would be more traffic.

 

[Knightshade]

They just need one national jurisdiction (e.g. Norway, Canada, etc.) to approve FSD to generate data that does it crashes less and saves more lives than humans. NHTSA and other jurisdictions will follow, traffic variations notwithstanding.

It's already legal and "approved" in half a dozen US states.

Right now.

If they felt it was genuinely safe without a human driver they could deploy it right now

The fact they haven't has nothing at all to do with regulators- there's no need for "national" approval.

It's that the system isn't even safe enough at level 2, with a human, for fleetwide rollout yet-- let alone at L4 or L5.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Analysts and the press assume all of Tesla's competitors will execute flawlessly on their cars. Turns out this is not a good assumption. Each of these failures just further emphasizes how awesome Tesla actually is.

GM Could Very Soon Pull The Plug On Its Tesla Killer — TheStreet

The car manufacturer hasn't produced a single unit of the Bolt for months and there's no sign the production will resume soon.

apple.news

 

[uujjj2]

Automakers never publish profitability numbers by factory, but I wouldn't be surprised if at this moment, Jan 2022, the Tesla Fremont plant is the most profitable automobile factory in the world. It is by far the highest output plant, by revenue, in North America. Either that or Tesla Shanghai (which has a lower ASP product mix but probably lower costs too).

 

[Knightshade]

Automakers never publish profitability numbers by factory, but I wouldn't be surprised if at this moment, Jan 2022, the Tesla Fremont plant is the most profitable automobile factory in the world.

I'd be very surprised if that were true compared to Shanghai, especially with S/X numbers still being historically low.