Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

It's already legal and "approved" in half a dozen US states.

Right now.

If they felt it was genuinely safe without a human driver they could deploy it right now

The fact they haven't has nothing at all to do with regulators- there's no need for "national" approval.

It's that the system isn't even safe enough at level 2, with a human, for fleetwide rollout yet-- let alone at L4 or L5.

There's nothing more obvious than this. I can't believe this continuously keeps getting mentioned!!!

 

[MXWing]

The best way to talk about the product road map and defer all the 25K car questions would have been:

We currently sell every Model 3/Y that we produce. There is a big demand backlog and all of our ramping efforts are to service that back log.
Any new products for the near future would slow us down. It wouldn't make sense to sacrifice 1 million Model 3 and Y's to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks at this time.

We are on track for greater than 50% growth this year without any new products and battling the world wide supply chain crisis.

 

[The Accountant]

Meanwhile Gordon and other negative nancies latest claim is that Tesla is only surviving because they are delaying paying bills.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486471613126111234

We know he's a clown to be ignored but now that he's walked into my house, I must respond.

+15b (Tesla Q4 expenses)
+ 2b (Tesla Q4 Capital Expenditures)
- 6b (Remove Tesla Q4 payroll)
$11b - Total Spend with Vendors in Q4

$5.7b Accounts Payable at Dec 31.

So of the $11b in spend with vendors in Q4 (90days), Tesla owes vendors $5.7b. That means they have 47 day terms. Many Fortune 100 companies pay in 60 days. In my opinion, Tesla is paying bills too soon . . . .there's room for improvement to generate more cash flow.

 

[MC3OZ]

They are battery constrained for 2 more years,

Can you quote the exact comment you are talking about here?

I remember talk of being generally constrained on parts (chips) on 2022, and that that situation should easy by 2023.

They are targeting growth of at least 50% in 2022, they have the cells for those cars, and some ambition to make more energy storage batteries.

There are multiple reasons why additional models are no being produced in 2022, a shortage of parts (chips) is one reason.

The $25K Chinese made car with almost certainly use LFP cells made in China, since LFP cells are intended to be used in the ramp of energy storage, I wonder about the shortage?

A possible/likely explanation is that I missed something, it would be good to know what it was.

From my point of view the financial numbers look great, and I'm happy with 50% growth, and the implied progress on FSD. If this is doom and gloom, I would like a double serve.

 

[Budding]

My take:
Elon was basically asked, "If you don't make the 25k car, how are you going to sell 3 million in 2025?"
And Elon was responding that FSD makes the current products so valuable that demand will exceed production.
A revenue vehicle made by a business magnet.

If FSD price keeps going up and say it's 20k for the final version, I cannot see too many people being able to afford that kind of money on top of an already expensive vehicle.

 

[Knightshade]

We know he's a clown to be ignored but now that he's walked into my house, I must respond.

+15b (Tesla Q4 expenses)
+ 2b (Tesla Q4 Capital Expenditures)
- 6b (Remove Tesla Q4 payroll)
$11b - Total Spend with Vendors in Q4

$5.7b Accounts Payable at Dec 31.

So of the $11b in spend with vendors in Q4 (90days), Tesla owes vendors $5.7b. That means they have 47 day terms. Many Fortune 100 companies pay in 60 days. In my opinion, Tesla is paying bills too soon . . . .there's room for improvement to generate more cash flow.

Since you're debunking Q accounting fraud tales, here's Standstill Capitals own toilet boy explaining how free cash flow was really about $0 this quarter-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486496765821870083

 

[MP3Mike]

They don't have enough batteries.

They are battery constrained for 2 more years, why put them in a inexpensive car.

Why do you say that when just a few hours ago Tesla told us that they were not battery constrained? (They said that they are constrained on chips and other parts for at least the rest of this year.)

 

[MC3OZ]

If FSD price keeps going up and say it's 20k for the final version, I cannot see too many people being able to afford that kind of money on top of an already expensive vehicle.

Are you talking people, or Robotaxi fleet operators here?

For the fleet operator it is a straight out crunch of the financial numbers..

I think Model 3 and the new 25K car are important to lower the cost of fleet vehicles to allow bigger fleets to be assembled faster.

For private car owners, wanting FSD for personal use, there is an issue. And perhaps at some point it is logical for FSD to split into commercial and private use at different rates.

 

[Knightshade]

And perhaps at some point it is logical for FSD to split into commercial and private use at different rates.

That was specifically asked on the call and Elon said no, too complicated.

 

[hacer]

As I mentioned- you can put a robotaxi on the road tomorrow- legally- in a number of US states without needing to say a word, or get any approval from, the feds.

Not quite. The feds have already delegated to the states (with guidelines and recommendations) the approval process to be used but only for testing and pilot programs.

While they haven't done so yet, there is no doubt that the NHTSA has the authority to regulate the safety of robotaxis.

Currently, states permit a limited number of “self-driving” vehicles to conduct testing, research, and pilot programs on public streets and NHTSA monitors their safety through its Standing General Order. NHTSA and USDOT are committed to overseeing the safe testing, development and deployment of these systems – currently in limited, restricted and designated locations and conditions.

NHTSA is also actively working on developing standards that will be required of future robotaxis once they leave the "limited restricted testing" allowed today

Presently the NHTSA and DOT are taking a minimal regulation approach for the express purpose of not inhibiting technological development. But that is more or less guaranteed to change once there is any kind of widespread commercial implementation of fully automated vehicles. Widespread commercial implementation is of course Tesla's goal.

 

[2daMoon]

Expecting Texas to start getting beat up here to. Still no production permit despite supposedly no bureaucracy and fake environmentalists to blame. What's their excuse?

I was left with the impression that production is likely waiting on third-party certification of the vehicle. Probably required in order to meet DOT standards for OEM production. Like crash testing and other such certification.

 

[Tyler34]

View attachment 760566

Tesla is tacitly admitting autonomy is materially delayed. Current portion of deferred revenue is slashed, but long-term portion is up by a lot.

Q stole this and posted on Twitter. Be careful in here.

 

[Ogre]

What's going on with the Cybertruck delays, and the Roadster and Semi delays, in a sense, is that the Model Y is such a hit. The Model Y is in such hot demand that Tesla basically cannot muster the raw resources to build new products right now. Every incremental battery cell, chip, tire, or roll of aluminum, every extra square inch of factory space, is better used to build the Y. There's going to be two huge factories that build nothing but Y this year, and two other factories building more Y than anything else.

In 2022, Tesla is the Y.

It's amazing that the Y, the least hyped car in Tesla's history, the car that was barely mentioned at its own launch, is the car that's made Tesla into a cash cow.

Exactly.

Tesla has a choice:

Make $1.6 Billion on Cybertruck sales with 1% margin. Put 20,000 trucks on the road.

Make $11 Billion on Model Y sales with 34% margin. Put 200,000 additional Model Ys on the road.

I won’t even bother with calculating the bottom line here, it’s pretty obvious. From every angle this makes sends.

Still sucks monkey ***** but it makes sense.

 

[Knightshade]

delegated to the states (with guidelines and recommendations) [/URL]the approval process to be used but only for testing and pilot programs.

That's simply not true.

They HAVE made recommendations- but states are free to allow full commercial use of robotaxis however they want right now. Not just for pilot programs or testing.

And a number of states have done so.

If you wanna operate one RIGHT NOW you can, without needing any say-so from the feds.

They could certainly decide to do some regulation LATER- but that takes a while.

TODAY there's no such hoops for anyone to jump through if they want to put an RT on the road right now.



Florida for example passed this law several years ago:

https://flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2019/311/BillText/er/PDF

Fully autonomous cars, including on-demand autonomous vehicle networks, legal in FL. Today. Commercially.

The only requirements are that it can follow all current motor vehicle laws and safety standards.
Follows any federal laws for autonomous cars (of which there ARE NONE today)
Can achieve minimal risk condition without a human (so L4 and above)


Here's Colorado:

https://leg.colorado.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2017A/bills/2017a_213_enr.pdf

Which explicitly allows full operation of L4 and L5 systems on public roads. Fully, not just for testing or pilot programs.

The ONLY requirement is the vehicle must comply with any state or federal law applicable to operation (and again there are no such federal laws today).


Here's Georgia:

Georgia Autonomous Vehicle Laws - Georgia Car Laws

2024 Georgia Autonomous Vehicle Laws for dummies. Quick reference for all Georgia car laws.

georgiacarlaws.com

Allows fully autonomous cars INCLUDING commercial operation. Slightly more restrictive in that it has specific insurance coverage requirements, but otherwise largely same story about it must otherwise comply with all existing laws, and be at least L4 (able to reach minimal risk condition without a human).


Here's Nebraska:

https://nebraskalegislature.gov/FloorDocs/105/PDF/Slip/LB989.pdf

Specifically allows personal and commercial use of self driving cars- including on-demand vehicle networks. Only requirements? L4 or L5, and must follow all existing driving/safety laws...plus you must submit proof of insurance to the state. That's it.

Here's North Carolina:

https://www.ncleg.gov/Sessions/2017/Bills/House/PDF/H469v7.pdf

SLIGHTLY more restrictive here- autonomous vehicles are allowed (for not just testing or pilots) but they can't carry anyone under 12 unless there's an adult present, and must be able to stop at a scene of a crash it's involved in. Otherwise same usual requirements as other states, must be insured, must follow all state/fed laws. But otherwise totally legally to operate em TODAY.

Here's Tennessee-

2019 Tennessee Code :: Title 55 - Motor and Other Vehicles :: Chapter 30 - Automated Vehicles Act :: § 55-30-103. Operation of ADS-operated vehicle without human driver.

Justia Free Databases of US Laws, Codes & Statutes

law.justia.com

Pretty much same deal- must follow all laws, must be insured, can do minimal risk fallback task (so L4 or L5), and is registered specifically as an automated vehicle on the normal car registration.... if so you can operate it in the state TODAY. No limitations for pilots or testing.


Hopefully half a dozen examples are sufficient to establish Tesla can roll out robotaxis any time they want in at least some US states without "waiting on regulators" to allow it.

 

[Ogre]

Just realized… we can’t even post a transcript of the earnings call on here without edits.

We know he's a clown to be ignored but now that he's walked into my house, I must respond.

+15b (Tesla Q4 expenses)
+ 2b (Tesla Q4 Capital Expenditures)
- 6b (Remove Tesla Q4 payroll)
$11b - Total Spend with Vendors in Q4

$5.7b Accounts Payable at Dec 31.

So of the $11b in spend with vendors in Q4 (90days), Tesla owes vendors $5.7b. That means they have 47 day terms. Many Fortune 100 companies pay in 60 days. In my opinion, Tesla is paying bills too soon . . . .there's room for improvement to generate more cash flow.

Doesn’t accrued liabilities include the money they’ve accepted for FSD but haven’t recognized as income yet because it’s not complete?

 

[Dutchie]

60,000 FSD beta drivers. Average drive per car in US is about 40 miles per day. This is 2.4 million FSD beta capable miles per day (60,000 * 40). Say that 50 of every drive is on FSD, that means that 1,2 million FSD beta miles are driven each and every day, this without any known accident... wow

 

[betstarship]

Dunno if this helps, but there's a pretty cool Wikipedia page on solar power. 2009 was the adoption of the IPCC.

"The early development of solar technologies starting in the 1860s was driven by an expectation that coal would soon become scarce." - Solar power - Wikipedia

So, q - what's the total TAM for solar+battery in terms of global adoption in TWh? How much can Tesla actually cover on its own compared to bringing along an entire ecosystem of solar+battery providers?

 

[MXWing]

Q stole this and posted on Twitter. Be careful in here.

I'm way more inclined to believe DarkandStormy is a TSLAQ plant.

 

[Tyler34]

I'm way more inclined to believe DarkandStormy is a TSLAQ plant.

Turns out it was posted on Twitter first. Not sure what to think

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Feeling bummed about no new models in 2022, I decided to reread the Tesla master plan part 2 from 2016 and see if this was a departure from it. (Bolding is mine).

So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
-Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
-Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
-Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
-Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport
Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.

What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.
In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.