Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

Apple just reported:

Trailing Twelve Month Net Profit of $100.5 Billion
Market Cap of $2.7 Trillion
EPS of $6
EPS growth of 25%
P/E multiple of 27x
Price/Earnings/growth ratio just 1.1x

How does this relate to TSLA? Just pointing out that the current market sentiment is not really rewarding EPS growth very highly.

 

[lazybot]

I have my personal issues with Gary Black (notably he seems to be the type to convey full confidence in areas where he doesn't seem to actually be particularly knowledgeable), however, I thought he did a really good job shedding light on why institutional money managers might have trouble with the call.

One sentence from Gary that summarizes it "Tesla didn't miss, they had a bad conference call"

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I think people are conflating Elon's answers to questions on the $25K car such that they think Tesla isn't working on it because they think they'll solve FSD this year.

In reality, I think Elon responded directly to the question by affirming that demand for existing products is so strong, and will allow such a high volume ramp, that there's no need to release or even talk about a $25K car at this time, which would only lower output and take sales away from higher margin vehicles (makes perfect sense). And as part of that process, his mind instantly goes to: "When we solve FSD, a $25K car becomes moot."

It takes careful parsing to separate the two, and I think one could be forgiven when interpreting his answer as: "No $25K car because FSD!"

You may be right.
But if so, it just highlights need for Elon to stay away from the call.
Disinterested capital allocators want a simple message, no nuance, no surprises, no uncertainties.
It's not particularly hard skill to master, but it's not Elon's forte, and worse, it's as he keeps expecting world and people to change.
Hence incessant repetition of points - as if he's thinking "how are you not getting it?"
Well who got it got it; others won't get it, no matter how many times he repeats it...

 

[scubastevo80]

Apple just reported:

Trailing Twelve Month Net Profit of $100.5 Billion
Market Cap of $2.7 Trillion
EPS of $6
EPS growth of 25%
P/E multiple of 27x
Price/Earnings/growth ratio just 1.1x

How does this relate to TSLA? Just pointing out that the current market sentiment is not really rewarding EPS growth very highly.

AAPL up 5% after hours on their report, so the market obviously likes it. That may or may not be what's lifting TSLA after hours...

 

[Drumheller]

Imagine Apple saying "We are not releasing anymore products as our current products are sold out too far into the future and the margins are double that of anyone else in the industry and nobody can seem to make a phone that anyone wants to buy "

That seems about where Tesla is at currently.

Similarly, imagine if Steve Jobs had talked up the original iPhone for 5 years without it being finished, constantly trying to convince people of how game changing it would be.

FSD and robotaxis will be amazing and change the world, but many / most people now just roll their eyes when Elon gives yet another timeline estimate on when those will be ready. The more Elon tries to get everyone to see his vision, the more that group tunes out.

Elon has said enough that anyone paying attention and having some imagination can see his vision. Instead, maybe this call could have talked more about how good the quarter was, more detail about the updated cybertruck design (wasn't that going to be an event a year ago?) , more about how solar roof is going (not well from what I see), more about Austin and Berlin, etc.

Tesla is doing fantastic and Elon wants to focus on what excites him about where he is aiming for 5 years from now, but that is lost on many listeners.

 

[phoggy123]

Similarly, imagine it Steve Jobs had talked up the original iPhone for 5 years without it being finished, constantly trying to convince people of how game changing it would be.

FSD and robotaxis will be amazing and change the world, but many / most people now just roll their eyes win Elon gives yet another timeline estimate on when they will be ready. The more he tries to get everyone to see his vision, the more that group tunes out.

He has said enough that anyone paying attention and having some imagination can see his vision. Instead, maybe this call could have talked more about how good the quarter was, more detail about the updated cybertruck design (wasn't that going to be an event a year ago?) , more about how solar roof is going (not well from what I see), more about Austin and Berlin, etc.

Tesla is doing fantastic and Elon wants to focus on what excites him about where he is aiming for 5 years from now, but that is lost on many listeners.

Imagine if the iPhone made the idea of human labor obsolete? Imagine if the iPhone was the gateway to general AI?

Yes it's much too hard for the simpletons on the sell side to understand...but none the less when its all said and done unless you think TSLA should have a PE of like 20 when they are printing money and growing at 50%+ per year...Elon's comments can be noise and they could still be happy.

 

[JustSaying]

lorry/van in the background? As someone on Twitter pointed out. Look at the roofline of the last vehicle compared to the three in front.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486445749101543432

No Sleepers?

 

[Lessmog]

First thanks for all the contributors in this thread, Your insights are awesome.

Second, anyone noticed the huge premarket ticker entry of almost 700k shares? That's 6.5 0.65 Billion $
I'm annoyed when the volume chart is messed up like that. But someone was on a huge fishing trip in the
darkpools.

Any Insights?

View attachment 760889

edit: decimal error in multiplication happens even to an engineer

First rule of the Slide Rule ...

 

[H Mak]

Ross Gerber, Gali and Meet Kevin did a post Earnings Call "party" video where they basically say the same thing. Elon is on another planet when it comes to some of these concepts, like Robo Taxis, that investors can't even grasp what it means for Tesla. BTW, this is actually pretty entertaining as they polish off a bottle of Teslaquila

I just watched Dave's video with Gary Black and it was pretty much the same conclusion. I found it really good. Gary is useful to listen to because he is an actual portfolio manager who's fund's biggest holding is Tesla and he gives insights into how fund managers view these thing. And incidentally he's not changing his price target ($1,600) despite his misgivings, almost amusement, at how the earnings call panned out.

And by the way he thinks the EV credit bill will pass at the $8000 level. This would obviously give a huge boost to Tesla.

 

[Mengy]

Similarly, imagine if Steve Jobs had talked up the original iPhone for 5 years without it being finished, constantly trying to convince people of how game changing it would be.

FSD and robotaxis will be amazing and change the world, but many / most people now just roll their eyes when Elon gives yet another timeline estimate on when those will be ready. The more Elon tries to get everyone to see his vision, the more that group tunes out.

Elon has said enough that anyone paying attention and having some imagination can see his vision. Instead, maybe this call could have talked more about how good the quarter was, more detail about the updated cybertruck design (wasn't that going to be an event a year ago?) , more about how solar roof is going (not well from what I see), more about Austin and Berlin, etc.

Tesla is doing fantastic and Elon wants to focus on what excites him about where he is aiming for 5 years from now, but that is lost on many listeners.

I hate to say it, but I mostly agree with this. The updates in the conference call was not the info I was excited to hear about, and it would seem the market as well.

 

[floydboy]

i got a call from Fidelity today ... they have not reached out in a long time .. attempting to get me to diversify out of TSLA ... coordinated... maybe

Yeah, got one of those from Fidelity too. Made my 'spidey sense' tingle.

 

[MC3OZ]

So, on the product road map front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not going to go through every sort of thing that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call.

This quote from the earnings call is interesting, it seems Elon might have considered the list of upcoming products and likely target dates, before deciding not to comment in detail.

Announcing a whole list of new products while announcing delays to existing (or rumoured) products, would not have gone down well.

So the main focus of the update was explaining why products were delayed. The contents of the update don't change anything fundamental about the rate of product development, or the financials.

I think Optimus was mentioned because knocking out a working prototype this year, is a high priority. I don't think Optimus or FSD would be overly impacting the development of new vehicles. The implied list of products above obviously includes some new vehicles.

Critics were always going to find something to criticize other than the financial numbers and guidance on this call.

Whether or not it was wise to do a product update at all, it is done now.

 

[Fishy Fish]

lorry/van in the background? As someone on Twitter pointed out. Look at the roofline of the last vehicle compared to the three in front.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486445749101543432

Google image search for "red tesla semi" that was out in public over the last few years

 

[woodisgood]

I'm shocked that Tesla hasn't built their own FAB yet, or just purchased a semiconductor maker. Maybe the new Samsung FAB near Austin will help, but I think its time to deploy some M&A dry powder!

If you consider how much the “chip shortage” has actually hampered Tesla’s mission (not the business), it is quite staggering, and naturally leads one to wonder if the billions that were previously used to short the stock by certain entities have been put to better use.

Thank goodness climate change also paused during the pandemic and resulting “supply chain issues.”

 

[MC3OZ]

Google image search for "red tesla semi" that was out in public over the last few years

View attachment 761074

The different Semi heights isn't hard to understand, the lower model can go under lower bridges, it is probably the 300 Mile "short haul" version.

 

[WADan]

This just came out. Mary riding Cruise in SF in middle of the night!

Let’s invite her to ride in a Tesla with FSD during daylight, shall we?

 

[Rarity]

Related to Elon's tweet today, do we actually know the composition of the 4680 cells that Tesla is making at Kato Rd. and Austin?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486821592533544971

 

[tivoboy]

This just came out. Mary riding Cruise in SF in middle of the night!

Let’s invite her to ride in a Tesla with FSD during daylight, shall we?

Careful, in some circles that might be considered a threat.

 

[JustSaying]

The payroll tax thing hasn’t appeared in the P&L’s before? If not, what’s different about these tranches? Is it an end-of-year entry for all tranches recognized in 2021?

Change from estimate? 9/30/2021 close price and related stock compensation GAAP accrual and actual much higher 4th quarter exercise prices?
(I haven't opined on SEC financial statement bean counting for many years)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thank goodness climate change also paused during the pandemic and resulting “supply chain issues.”

Common false narrative pushed by climate deniers, and not even close to being true (climate is weather over 20 years).

Man Announces He Will Quit Drinking by 2050 — The Shovel

He has assured friends it will not affect his drinking plans in the short or medium term.

www.theshovel.com.au

This is why climate deniers (read Big Oil) funds anti-Tesla media FUD, and spends huge sums money shorting the stock: they are deathly afraid of the effect that switching to sustainable energy will have on their profits.

Sad, in a sick, twisted sort of way.