Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

These gyrations are a bit much. I don’t know what it is, but the extremes aren’t because of EM on the earnings call, worries about the 25k car, lack of growth narrative, etc.

TSLA just has weird delayed responses and massive dips in between. Someone is making a lot from this.

My consolation for loading up on the dips, which adds some stress for leveraging further, is making whoever is doing this pay in cold, hard *cash*.

Unfortunately, my impact is like the sound of a cricket chirping over the roar of an incoming tsunami.

Almost forgot… making money is some consolation too.

I'm fairly new to the "other thread" and the options trading that's discussed there, but I get the sense the TSLA options market was a lot of the fuel behind this bear raid.

For months and months people have been talking about selling various options contracts and combinations of options contracts with profits ranging from 1% to 15% per week or more. 1% and maybe even 2% returns were and kind of still are safely attainable with a fair amount of daily effort. As we got closer to 4Q earnings and what felt like inevitable SP support buoyed by strong EPS, people got more confident(greedy) and stretch the limits a bit.

With Tesla's options market making up LITERALLY HALF of the entire options market, that quickly became a lot of money ripe for the taking. Hedge funds and market makers(who are often both), then have the incentive to plunge SP temporarily and scoop up all that money sitting out there in the options market. That's precisely what they did.

Tons of people got margin called, lost tons of money, and now we're on to the second phase. MM's now unwind their short positions, hedge funds buy up cheap TSLA shares, and retail traders are left so reeling from their losses they can't buy/trade when it's now advantageous to buy/trade.

I'm having a tough time understanding if this is outright criminal market making or if it's merely a function of retail greed. Who knows. In retrospect, it should have been obvious to me that making 1-2% per week with a lot of work and MASSIVE discipline is possible, but you MUST maintain that discipline at ALL times or they'll take ALL your money.

(I'm still treading water, levered up at the lows, and it's looking like I'll get out fine......if anyone cares)

 

[betstarship]

It's surreal that we live in a world where we have Tesla Bot and Nueralink running in parallel in two separate companies...where the latter has already proven to have monkeys trained to play pong without a hand-held controller.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Keep in mind we don't have actually have that much time on our clock to wait for the galaxy merger between Milky Way and Andromeda.

Future of Earth - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Sun is gradually growing brighter and has been since it's formation. In about 600 million years, the current biosphere will not be able to function and most multi-cellular carbon-based life will be extinct. In about 1 billion years, the Sun will have boiled all the Earth's oceans off into space, causing total biological extinction of carbon-based life. The Sun itself will exhaust it's hydrogen resources in about 5 billion years and expand in a red giant, completely engulfing what will by then be a lifeless rock.

What I'm saying is, even if we don't cause our own extinction within a century by warming the Earth until it is uninhabitable by our species, we still need to discover FTL space travel, develop advanced terraforming, be able to engage in massive scale spaceship and space colony construction, and eventually if our species survives that long, completely abandon our homeworld in a few hundred million years. By that point humanity would likely have a very large star empire, and the loss of our homeworld would be little more than a historical artifact.

And IF our species survives that long, and has this level of technology, that would imply we can probably continue to perpetuate our existence indefinitely, in which case the Heat Death of the Universe comes into play in the far future of the Universe. From that, there is no escape for anything in our Universe.


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Ok then. A bottle of Jack Daniels and back to bed for me. There goes my week. Geesh.

 

[Singuy]

IMO this isn't anyone recognizing that Tesla absolutely crushed their earnings and are set to crush their earnings every quarter for the next 8+ quarters. This is just simple, straightforward, sector rotation to EV (along with the overall rotation back into growth stocks):

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I made a post earlier about how we can't rule out the possibility of fund managers attacked Tesla but bought puts on OTHER eV stocks to amplify gains.

 

[ZachF]

Well, how bout that

 

[15Peter20]

Time to be nice to one-another again!

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Okay, I guess you DO need to see some production line videos. Here's one showing how Tesla Fremont Seat factory line workers spend their time:

Now consider robot vision for reliability/warranty issues. If a soldered connector on an electrical connection fails 4 years later, just pull up the VIDEO record of the assembly taken by the Teslabot that built of THAT indivual seat. Was it installed correctly? Did it leave the factory in good condition. Would a human worker still even have been with the company, if they remember at all? More likely, after 72 hrs they have ZERO memory of any specific mechanical repetitive task they perform day-in, day-out. Not so with Teslabot and its TeslaCloud!

Now extend this idea to assembling high voltage bty packs, and the warranty issues at stake w. HV traction packs. I submit that you probably haven't thought very deeply about how useful that Teslabot will be in the factory.

Cheers!

Very good point: That QA/warranty scenario will actually be very valuable!
I was beginning to doubt that it was worth the trouble and hassle to bootstrap robots in a real-life production line, given that the first handful of iterations are bound to be somewhat lacking in both dexterity and task-intelligence - so a 'slot in' replacement seems unlikely.

I expect the bot to be slow, lacking in tasks it can do well and get stuck a lot in the first 1-5 iterations - even for simle tasks.
BUT the scenario described above demonstrates that the bot can provide value by a) being acurate and b) having built-in documentation. This also helps the bot being "too slow to actually work well"-scenario, 'cause documentation is almost often an extra step, or series of steps, for human workers.

Also: If Tesla is still experimenting with bitcoin/altcoins/blockchain tech then here is a good usecase.
In order to counter future doubts and/or legal issues about Tesla re-using the same bot camera feed over and over to hide some alledged production mistake or misalignment: Use cam feed, timestamp and blockchain to document in a way that is unfalsifiable.

This is may be prudent 'cause you cannot ask a bot to sign a legal document or call it as a witness.
(at least not ... yet)

 

[elasalle]

donkeys showing TSLA some love today

really like the IBRK, Ameritrade guys coming in and show TSLA strength among retail investors

Tesla investors are committed to the company for the long-term, says Interactive Brokers' Peterffy

Thomas Peterffy, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down January's volatile market action ahead of the last trading session of the month.

www.cnbc.com

+

When shorting a theme, it gets dangerous: Munster on big Tesla short

CNBC's "Squawk Box" team discusses legendary investor Michael Burry's big short bet against Tesla and the "Elon Musk effect" with Gene Munster, Loup Ventures founder and managing partner.

www.cnbc.com

 

[JustSaying]

Elon Musk=John Galt

Who is John Galt?

 

[Krugerrand]

Who is John Galt?

Google is even my friend.

 

[petit_bateau]

One, under the radar, bonus of the Optimus Project is it pretty much guarantees Elon will remain as CEO for 5 to 10 years longer than he would have otherwise.

Even better set Elon stock remuneration targets based on
- profitably releasing FSD at large volume on Earth within (say) 5-years;
- profitably releasing Optimus at large volume on Earth within (say) 10-years;

 

[Drumheller]

Is it 900 $1000 yet?

$1300, yet?

 

[Ocelot]

You can tell Tesla has designed Optimus to build cars, right down to final panel gap inspection. For example, look at the fingertips chosen for Optimus, long, finely-tapered, wedge shaped fingertips made of a soft, non-marring rubber-like material. This avoids the need for Optimus to pick up a hard caliper to check consistency of panel gaps. Optimus can simply insert the end of his tapered fingertip into the panel gap and determine the gap by noting how deeply it allows his fingertip to penetrate. /s

I thought there was not even a prototype built yet? Where are you getting this from? The human dressed in spandex?
Two years back the board was all about alien dreadnought. Now, we have Optimus.
When we talk about robotic penetration, it’s time to dial it back a bit, unless that’s your thing of course

 

[The Accountant]

Please forward this post to wallstreet for Monday morning opening session. Thank you.

Somebody must have sent it; . . .was it you?

 

[Artful Dodger]

That was one weak MMD!

Wedgies trying to 'close the gap' to last Friday's intraday high. Missed it by about 4 bux:

To my (non-technical) eye, looks like Bulls are making a run at the 10-day Moving Average ($934.97 atm). Not advice!

Cheers!

 

[elasalle]

so this is what waking up from a nightmare feels like

will we see 3 digit GAP UP ....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Time to be nice to one-another again!

Day's not over yet....

 

[Knightshade]

Hadn't seen this mentioned yet- non-tesla access to superchargers expands to France

https://twitter.com/x/status/1488142675010375681

 

[betstarship]

Sandy Munro estimated the cost of labor for assembling a $50K Model 3 at about $10K.

With Teslabot, that drops to about $1K in the medium term (3-4 yrs).

That takes COGS to about $24K and gross margin to about 52%

Excited yet?

Severely underestimating the costs of the monkey-controlled-Tesla-bot-by-Neuralink manufacturing robots and EVs market.

 

[Phobi]

HODL.