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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
the latter keeps going up
Macros looking good, lot of 5+% gains in other Tech/high growth names
Is a month end window-dressing a thing?
• 4320 is support to watch still. Price is trying to bounce off it, but it doesn’t mean much just yet. Resistance immediately above is 4390, then 4450 is flag resistance (it breaks we squeeze to the upside)
• Generally, I’d say bears have the ball below 4390. If price bounces back up there, and rejects hard to retest 4320ish, I think its quite likely this flag is about to break to the downside.
• If 4390 clears, things start to get more optimistic for bulls (if it tests, just bases below a little, not much selling, or tries to sell and comes back up, good sign its going to pop above). Above 4390 can try intraday longs to 4450 flag resistance.
• 4450-55 is last chance for bears to take it lower. Reaction there would need to be very fast, with a fail of 4390 being the short signal. We’d likely take out 4330 and head to new lows if it tried that big of a bounce and failed.
• Above 4450, we short squeeze. This squeeze would last to 4535-50 minimum, as high as 4575, and that is really the last chance spot for bears as above there we head to ATHS In summary: We’re in a consolidating market and its shape favors the bears until proven otherwise. It could definitely bounce up and down more in this range for a day or two so would be looking at the bullet points above for clues. I’d like to see something like maybe 4390, then down. Note that loss to 4320 in any case is the sign its breaking down direct.
Redeploy cash to GM. Only upside EV potential.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Don't be fooled by oil company rhetoric!
First, the article did not say BP made as much per station from charging as they made from pumping gas. They used some weasel language to make you think that. There are several issues here. Most of BP profits don't come from pumping gas, they come from extracting the resource, refining it and wholesaling it. It matters little to BP whether they sell to their own station or a retail competitor because the margins on retail gasoline are quite small and the cost to operate is significant. They make up the difference selling snacks, etc. What they actually said were the economics of filling an EV with electrons were better than filling a tank with gas. They were probably referring to the electricity having a higher markup (but that ignores the upstream profits of retail gasoline). This doesn't mean they don't lose big time when a gas car goes out of service!
In addition to losing the most lucrative part of the oil business, the extraction and refining, it cannot be repeated often enough, over 95% of all EV charging happens at home or work where oil companies don't get a cut. So, not only will they lose nearly 100% of the upstream road fuel profits as the world transitions to EV's but they lose over 95% of the downstream potential including a large percentage of the snacks, tobacco, etc. because people are charging at home/work and doing more shopping at a regular store.
The article you read came from a desire to mollify BP investors another year. BP has one of the strongest renewable sides of the business of any of the oil majors but they still don't have viable plan to replace the revenues that will be lost from the oil and gas side of their business. No, EV charging is not going to be a lucrative new source of revenue compared to oil extraction and refining.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Haha, do you mean the stylized read "S X 3 Y" characters arrayed in the graphic? Thanks for pointing that out.
Your RECCE Eyes are wasted on Walmart!
Cheers!
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LiveLong&Profit
Member
I'll give it a go:
TESLA => tiger => STRONG!
S and E and X and Y (Red lines: upper left, upper right, lower right, lower left)
[Artful Dodger beat me to it. Well - it only strengthens my belief
]Interpretation:
- Tesla: Strong and Sexy.
- Tesla: Fast like a Tiger!
- New Year is Tesla Year!
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Are you talking S&P, cuz we're beyond those numbers now?
Maybe you meant TSLA - but in Canadian money?
Thinking of giving my two week notice.Haha, do you mean the stylized read "S X 3 Y" characters arrayed in the graphic? Thanks for point that out.
Your RECCE Eyes are wasted on Walmart!
Cheers!
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
And Norway as well. So far 15 locations. Money in the bank.
I know today is a day worth celebrating, however we must be careful as this may end up being a gigantic bull trap.
We need Arkk to close above 85, Tesla needs to hit above 1k and Qqq needs to hit above 375. If all of these align then we can hit ath. (Note we don't have to close these targets in one day but eventually throughout the green wave).
Reason why we should all be cautious is because everything was extremely over sold so this can be a possible dead cat bounce on a macro level before next leg lower in which Nasdaq can potentially hit pre covid levels (let's just call that the ultimate bottom).
If you overlay the .com bubble price action over arkk, it's scary how similar the patterns are, and according to that pattern this is the dead cat phase.
Hate to be a negative nancy on a very positive day but we need to see some of the above price targets hitting before thinking this is over.
Check video for the overlay.
We need Arkk to close above 85, Tesla needs to hit above 1k and Qqq needs to hit above 375. If all of these align then we can hit ath. (Note we don't have to close these targets in one day but eventually throughout the green wave).
Reason why we should all be cautious is because everything was extremely over sold so this can be a possible dead cat bounce on a macro level before next leg lower in which Nasdaq can potentially hit pre covid levels (let's just call that the ultimate bottom).
If you overlay the .com bubble price action over arkk, it's scary how similar the patterns are, and according to that pattern this is the dead cat phase.
Hate to be a negative nancy on a very positive day but we need to see some of the above price targets hitting before thinking this is over.
Check video for the overlay.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Yep! All made possible by people's fear and their hyper-focus on day to day and minute to minute little share price moves.
How do we know if a tweet from Elon nowadays is actually from the original EM or from Optimus Prime serial number 0000000001???
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, ya think?! Reminds me of these prescient words spoken by the immortal Dom DeLuise in this epic 1970s documentary film:
"Happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas" because its only LEGAL in Nevada (or in the Southern District of New York, apparently).
Word!
Chicago PMI reading this morning for January 2022 was a beat. Pushes back on the narrative of economic expansion in 4th quarter being related to inventory buildup that would fall off substantially in Q1'22. (@ZachF) To be fair, there are data points of some economic slowdown in here despite the strong reading. Will be watching other PMI releases this week.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Just seen this, Dave getting called out by Elon
Doesn't this just reinforce the "key man" concerns others had over the weekend?
Elon appears to be saying the company literally can't drive almost any new ideas/products without him personally leading them. Nobody else at Tesla is capable of doing it.
Pretty meh action over the past hour or so. A lot of the other stocks in my watchlist are up more % wise than TSLA. I feel like we’re in for a another stretch like we saw from may to oct. Riding the 200 day moving average back to 1100-1200 with a breakout in may/June.
Which is fine with me. I’d prefer a quicker rebound to pay for some taxes that I incurred when I initiated my stock for leaps strategy throughout 2021 but I won’t be a complainer
Which is fine with me. I’d prefer a quicker rebound to pay for some taxes that I incurred when I initiated my stock for leaps strategy throughout 2021 but I won’t be a complainer
It does. But we all know Tesla as a car and energy company would survive and grow without Elon from this point forward. FSD and robots are a wildcard, which Elon is needed for, at least to accelerate the development. Even without Elon, Tesla will grow into 2025 substantially so that it is currently way undervalued.
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