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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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There is a support group for that....i feel that you are already a member of it...the acronym is 3 letters and begins with a T and ends with a C.

One of these HODL'ers is not like the others: :p

Remember Wen.jpg


Cheers!
 
Quick note I didn't see called out here:

There was this blurb about Karpathy posting some Tesla AI roles in his team. The bit that caught my attention was that Tesla Bot was described as an AI platform. This sent all sorts of bells ringing in my head. This may be very familiar for the "Product" people, but for those that are not familiar, a Tesla Bot platform implies an iPhone like capability where other developers can code the bot to do specific things, and sell those capabilities via an app store. And tesla will take a cut of the revenue.

Of course Tesla will have its own apps for the bot, and open source some reference implementations. And there will also be a digital model of the bot and a hundreds of thousands of stochastically generated digital environments in which other developers can train the bot to do useful stuff. Like entertaining your kid with a game or rock paper scissors, or pick up toys, or fold the laundry, etc. The complexity can ramp up over time. And the guts can be modular and upgraded.

This is one of those things that will have massive network effects where a critical mass of consumers and developers come together, and when that happens it becomes almost impossible for a newcomer to unseat the incumbent. Again like the appstore. At some point an Android equivalent may come along, but I am not sure if anyone is even thinking about it.
 
Which one of you is this? I demanded we do a TMC/BPS ETF and nobody wanted to!

(Bloomberg paywall)

Hedged Tesla Fund Wants to Tame Wild Ride in Elon Musk’s Company​

The strategy seeks to “provide risk-managed investment exposure” through a derivatives strategy known as call-option spreads, according to the filing from Illinois-based Innovator ETFs. The fund will buy in-the-money calls while selling bullish contracts with a different strike price -- meaning it can participate in any Tesla gains, but only up to a limit.

Meanwhile the hefty allocation to Treasury bills is designed to limit “significant losses” in one of the stock market’s highest-fliers. Tesla has famously outperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 15,500% over the past decade, largely fueled by its first-mover advantage in the EV industry and seemingly endless optimism for the company’s growth trajectory.
 
I understood something by reading a book on technical analysis. You try to find patterns that have repeated itself over time and if a pattern is followed 64% of the time by bullish buying then you expect the other traders looking at the bar formation to expect the other traders to start buying in and start the FOMO sentiment. The technical analysis is trying to spot pattern than can tell you other people around are thinking of doing by analyzing what you see too. Then the self-fulfilling prophecy happens. It’s similar to making a psychiatric assessment of what a bipolar patient is going to do in the next few days without correct medication. Sometimes waiting is the good approach unless he has suicidal plans.

I don’t know if I will use the knowledge I got from that book but I sure have learned a lot of new Japanese names coming from the analysis of rice price patterns.

It comes down to whether you are a trader or a long-term buy/hold investor. The latter tends to have better returns and it requires much less effort. That's why for the last 30+ years I don't trade in/out of stocks based on market cycles. I make an exception if I feel like the stock is valued so far into the future it's in my best interest to liquidate. But if you see what I see in Tesla, that point is so far above $1000 it's not even worth considering at this point in time. Tesla would have to be valued much more "frothily" for me to even consider taking a little off the table. I'm hoping it doesn't go there because I would rather ride this train for at least a few years without having to constantly second-guess if it's topping out for a multi-year period or whether it's going to go on another run much higher.

All the noise in the financial media about "valuations" is simply an attempt to get you to think it's smart to buy and sell based on relatively minor valuation differences. I'll be most happy if TSLA can maintain a price somewhere between what most traditional analysts think is 'overvalued' and I think is under-valued. Closing out the year at $1300-$1500 is fine with me.
 
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Quick note I didn't see called out here:

There was this blurb about Karpathy posting some Tesla AI roles in his team. The bit that caught my attention was that Tesla Bot was described as an AI platform. This sent all sorts of bells ringing in my head. This may be very familiar for the "Product" people, but for those that are not familiar, a Tesla Bot platform implies an iPhone like capability where other developers can code the bot to do specific things, and sell those capabilities via an app store. And tesla will take a cut of the revenue.

Of course Tesla will have its own apps for the bot, and open source some reference implementations. And there will also be a digital model of the bot and a hundreds of thousands of stochastically generated digital environments in which other developers can train the bot to do useful stuff. Like entertaining your kid with a game or rock paper scissors, or pick up toys, or fold the laundry, etc. The complexity can ramp up over time. And the guts can be modular and upgraded.

This is one of those things that will have massive network effects where a critical mass of consumers and developers come together, and when that happens it becomes almost impossible for a newcomer to unseat the incumbent. Again like the appstore. At some point an Android equivalent may come along, but I am not sure if anyone is even thinking about it.
That’s a WOW moment.. So, would Tesla set up a Bot marketplace, where you could order applications for your Bot? $$$$!
 
Elon appears to be saying the company literally can't drive almost any new ideas/products without him personally leading them. Nobody else at Tesla is capable of doing it.
I'm a true middle manager now but on my last job I was head of R&D and I reported directly to the president. On that job if I wanted to develop a new product line and took the initiative, everyone would have said "what the eff are you doing?" Anything that takes significant capital expenditure requires support from the top dog.

I'm still miffed I didn't get to develop a line of sauce cubes because ownership had no vision.
 
More non-Auto revenue incoming from 3rd-party Supercharger services: