He's not anti-vaxx, he's anti-vaccine mandate, big difference here. He said more than once that he supports vaccines and the science behind it is unequivocal.I love Elon but I had to unfollow him on twitter because I can't bear to see any more of his antivax propaganda
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Cancel culture to its fullest here.
"No one should say, ask or do anything that I am not content with." ... really?!
Look, everyone. I live in Switzerland. We have public votes on just about anything. Often, the outcome is not what I would have hoped for. Still I don't question the system per se.
Similarly, you should always root for freedom of speach, freedom of thought.
Elon is a very science-based human and has a good heart. Don't blame him for having another oppinion than you have - it's his damn right, just as much as it is yours!
"No one should say, ask or do anything that I am not content with." ... really?!
Look, everyone. I live in Switzerland. We have public votes on just about anything. Often, the outcome is not what I would have hoped for. Still I don't question the system per se.
Similarly, you should always root for freedom of speach, freedom of thought.
Elon is a very science-based human and has a good heart. Don't blame him for having another oppinion than you have - it's his damn right, just as much as it is yours!
Elon liked this, so he probably believes this is substantially true.
My comment would be: Tesla gains benefit by them all being in the same company, but how does TSLA reflect that value. Separate sub-companies?
CLK350
Member
We thought (SEC) unchecked naked shorts were bad for the integrity of financial markets - now think what unchecked buying will do (with free, newly printed USD, in the hands of the Feds aka our the largest not so great organization that also control the SEC).
From a review of "The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy " by Christopher Leonard
" What Leonard is describing is the Markets Group at the New York Fed, the only one of 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks to have its own trading floor; its own traders with Bloomberg terminals; its own speed dials to the major investment banks on Wall Street; and its own analysts that ferret out market-moving information from around the globe on a continuous basis. (Leonard was given an official tour of this area at the New York Fed on February 27, 2020, according to the “Notes” section of his book.)
What Leonard is suggesting on page 242 is that the New York Fed’s trading floor is no longer just content to sit close to the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan. The New York Fed’s Markets Group has decided to clone itself with another trading floor that sits close to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where S&P 500 futures are traded, as well as other futures contracts. "
Edit: correction, not our, the - as the Fed is owned by the private group of main banks Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citibank, etc
MODERATOR: Egregiously, monstrously, stupid; incorrect as well as conspiratorial statements like the one ending the above post are never permitted in MY THREAD. My tolerance level is ~~~~ZERO~~~~. This poster now is on a Moderator Watch List and subject to an insta-ban if any other such garbage ever shows up in his posts. The ===>SOLE<=== reason this post is not deleted is so that others may learn from its example.
From a review of "The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy " by Christopher Leonard
" What Leonard is describing is the Markets Group at the New York Fed, the only one of 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks to have its own trading floor; its own traders with Bloomberg terminals; its own speed dials to the major investment banks on Wall Street; and its own analysts that ferret out market-moving information from around the globe on a continuous basis. (Leonard was given an official tour of this area at the New York Fed on February 27, 2020, according to the “Notes” section of his book.)
What Leonard is suggesting on page 242 is that the New York Fed’s trading floor is no longer just content to sit close to the New York Stock Exchange in lower Manhattan. The New York Fed’s Markets Group has decided to clone itself with another trading floor that sits close to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where S&P 500 futures are traded, as well as other futures contracts. "
Edit: correction, not our, the - as the Fed is owned by the private group of main banks Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citibank, etc
MODERATOR: Egregiously, monstrously, stupid; incorrect as well as conspiratorial statements like the one ending the above post are never permitted in MY THREAD. My tolerance level is ~~~~ZERO~~~~. This poster now is on a Moderator Watch List and subject to an insta-ban if any other such garbage ever shows up in his posts. The ===>SOLE<=== reason this post is not deleted is so that others may learn from its example.
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Spacep0d
Active Member
“If a human disagrees with you, let him live. In a hundred billion galaxies, you will not find another.” -Carl Sagan
Critical detail: Less total tax paid does not mean more cash to Elon.Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's not how it works. Elon only has to pay the Income taxes (53%) once, at the time he excercises. Then when he finally sells the shares, he'll pay 20% Capital Gains tax on the appreciation in the share value.
That's always going to work out to be less total tax (income + capital gains) payable if he excercises at a lower price than he sells. Look at the two extreme cases:
I am not an accountant (the Dean and I did agree on that single point), so I'll simply step aside and ask more experienced members to chime in. Paging @st_lopes
- If Elon exercises and there is no appreciation in the SP before he sells, he'll pay exactly a 53% blended tax rate (all tax paid at exercise, 0 Capgain at sale)
- If SP == excerise price and SP goes to infinity, Elon pays a blended tax rate of 20% (all capital gains at sale, income tax portion at exercise is just a rounding error).
Cheers!
The key factor is that the growth subject to the lower capital gains tax rate is on an amount previously reduced by the normal tax rate.
The two examples and results you gave are correct in themselves and match what I called out.
Zero growth in stock post exercise is identical to exercise at cash out and results in 53% tax.
Zero gain at exercise (all basis) followed by growth, which I mentioned as being 20%. This also raises this issue that we ignore where the purchase monies came from. We're ignoring that for simplicity.
The case we need to look at is:
SP much higher than exercise price (high inital gain), growth, followed by cash out. Simplified, this becomes zero basis before exercise, tax (depending on scenario), growth, tax at cash out. Which is what the mathed out example was.
Using round numbers of 50% for normal tax and 20% for capital gains, 10 shares, 3x growth, and exercise cost of 0:
If options are exercised ASAP
SP of 1,000 * 10 = $10,000 exercise gain
Tax: $5,000 = $10,000 * 50%
Account balance = $5,000 = $10k - $5k
This is what grows moving forward
Future value: 3 * $5,000 = $15,000 = $5k + $10k
Tax: $2,000 = $10,000 * 20%
Account balance: $13,000 = $15,000 - $2,000
Final cash: $13,000
If options are exercised as late as possible, at cash out:
SP: $3,000 = $1,000 * 3
Exercise gain: $30,000 = $3,000 * 10
Tax: $15,000 = $30,000 * 50%
Account balance: $15,000 = $30k - $15k
Final cash: $15,000
More tax paid, but more cash at the end.
If options are exercised ASAP
SP of 1,000 * 10 = $10,000 exercise gain
Tax: $5,000 = $10,000 * 50%
Account balance = $5,000 = $10k - $5k
This is what grows moving forward
Future value: 3 * $5,000 = $15,000 = $5k + $10k
Tax: $2,000 = $10,000 * 20%
Account balance: $13,000 = $15,000 - $2,000
Final cash: $13,000
If options are exercised as late as possible, at cash out:
SP: $3,000 = $1,000 * 3
Exercise gain: $30,000 = $3,000 * 10
Tax: $15,000 = $30,000 * 50%
Account balance: $15,000 = $30k - $15k
Final cash: $15,000
More tax paid, but more cash at the end.
Pure algebra:
g: gain
t: tax rate
c: cap gains rate
a: award value at start
b: present account value post exercise
e: future account post exercise
b = a*(1-t) straight tax on award
g*b value post growth
=(g-1)*b + b value post stock growth, gain + basis
(1-c)*(g-1)*b+b capital gains tax on gains
=((1-c)*(g-1)+1)*b
=((c+g-cg-1)+1)*b
=(c+g-cg)*a*(1-t)
versus tax after growth
e = a*g*(1-t) all normal tax on award post gain
= g*a*(1-t)
If (c+g-cg) is greater than g, then early exercise is better.
Solving for this condition
c+g-cg>g
c-cg>0
c*(1-g)>0
1-g>0
g<1
Thus, for early to be better, account gains must be less than 1 (losing money) or capital gains tax is negative. Neither of these are likely, so Elon should wait to exercise (Ignoring external factors).
g: gain
t: tax rate
c: cap gains rate
a: award value at start
b: present account value post exercise
e: future account post exercise
b = a*(1-t) straight tax on award
g*b value post growth
=(g-1)*b + b value post stock growth, gain + basis
(1-c)*(g-1)*b+b capital gains tax on gains
=((1-c)*(g-1)+1)*b
=((c+g-cg-1)+1)*b
=(c+g-cg)*a*(1-t)
versus tax after growth
e = a*g*(1-t) all normal tax on award post gain
= g*a*(1-t)
If (c+g-cg) is greater than g, then early exercise is better.
Solving for this condition
c+g-cg>g
c-cg>0
c*(1-g)>0
1-g>0
g<1
Thus, for early to be better, account gains must be less than 1 (losing money) or capital gains tax is negative. Neither of these are likely, so Elon should wait to exercise (Ignoring external factors).
No. Tesla is the 6th most valuable company in the world so it's already doing a pretty good job of reflecting value.
If Sawyer Merritt is right and Tesla businesses between them are worth more than $5.5T in 2025 then discounting that back to today Tesla should be worth over $3.3T.
That it is not means that the current share price is not capturing the future value of the company, or that Sawyer and Elon are wrong. It seems you believe the later.
This petition seems like it's worth signIng I was going to put it here but someone beat me to it
Mr. Leonard has done some good investigative journalism (his Koch h comes to mind) but he really does not understand the Federal Reserve System, particularly the FOMC. That the New York Fed I the principal executor of Open Market activity is by design, with the Chicago role added when derivatives forwards and swaps became major factors. That they are not perfect is indisputable. That he 'suggests' 'cloning itself' is making a logical and reasonable step to be incendiary.
There are large questions and major risks in regulatory failings, such as the SEC rules, and the DTC is particularly egregious. Sadly, The focus on FOMC and constituent parts is attacking one fo the few parts of the system that still are relevant more than 100 years after the Federal reserve was created. Bluntly, in my opinion the problem si not with the specific institutions. It is that the advent of highly automated systems, instantaneous automated trading and a nearly infinite variety of instruments that have created a level of complexity that exceeds typical regulators from understanding the system, partly because obsolete institutions themselves were never designed for the modern world.
In our own terms; the markets move at Tesla speed. The regulators move at General Motors speed.
Mr. Leonard really misses the major point. He also does not really understand what a currency actually is, by definition the entity that creates a currency also controls it. All currencies are symbols that have value only when they have public faith in their value. Mr. Leonard might check out 'hyperinflation' to see what happens when the faith fails.
All securities operate on the same basis. The question now is what control there should be over blatant manipulation from private parties. Candidly, all of us want better control. The problems comes when we try to define what controls should be implemented.
After several seminars and courses from, among others, a head of the FOMC, a child accountant of the SEC and others I am acutely aware that none of the courses almost all fo us advocate are simple to do. Yes, even market makers 'naked shorts', and even 'fail to deliver'. Even those are not rally quite so simple as they seem to be. Prohibiting them entirely also has a cost. FWIW, I personally would do both, despite the systemic risk both will introduce.
Once again the comparison is really markets in Tesla time and regulation in Chevy II time.
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OTA FSD “recall"
www.marketwatch.com
Tesla Inc. is recalling almost 54,000 cars in the U.S. because of a feature of the company's Full Self-Driving software that could let cars roll through stop signs at intersections without coming to a complete stop.
…
To address the recall, Tesla will perform an over-the-air software update that disables the "rolling stop" feature, NHTSA said.
Tesla Is Recalling Nearly 54,000 U.S. Cars Over Software Feature
By Will Feuer Tesla Inc. is recalling almost 54,000 cars in the U.S. because of a feature of the company's Full Self-Driving software that could let cars...
www.marketwatch.com
Tesla Inc. is recalling almost 54,000 cars in the U.S. because of a feature of the company's Full Self-Driving software that could let cars roll through stop signs at intersections without coming to a complete stop.
…
To address the recall, Tesla will perform an over-the-air software update that disables the "rolling stop" feature, NHTSA said.
I have always thought approaching this with economic incentives/penalties would have been much more effective than mandates (at least in the US). If healthcare costs are demonstrably more expensive for the unvaccinated, then pass that cost on to them through insurance premiums.
I have to "help" mine through with a press of the Accelerator. I wish for rolling stops.OTA FSD “recall"
Tesla Is Recalling Nearly 54,000 U.S. Cars Over Software Feature
By Will Feuer Tesla Inc. is recalling almost 54,000 cars in the U.S. because of a feature of the company's Full Self-Driving software that could let cars...
Tesla Inc. is recalling almost 54,000 cars in the U.S. because of a feature of the company's Full Self-Driving software that could let cars roll through stop signs at intersections without coming to a complete stop.
…
To address the recall, Tesla will perform an over-the-air software update that disables the "rolling stop" feature, NHTSA said.
CLK350
Member
I don't think it is "only" a matter of TSLA speed. The SEC is clearly NOT doing its job, and IMHO keeps old processes and obscure/ complex regulations in place to allow for loopholes letting naked shorts go on without fear of getting caught. This has been discussed by folks here and elsewhere before.
Listening only to official accounts of the Fed/ SEC, NIH, FDA and other government entities you'd think all's good and taken good care of, NOT.
May I remind you that that same SEC is the one which is (on purpose, according to financial experts) staffed mostly by lawyers with limited knowledge of the financial industry they are supposed to regulate. And which ignored, even blocked any investigation of Madoff, after Harry Markopolos showed them for 10 years+ who impossible mathematically the Madoff returns were. The SEC who only sued Madoff *after* the fund became so insolvent Madoff himself told his sons to admit to the fraud. Then the SEC who refused to pay Markopolos his whistleblower award, then to add insult to injury either promoted those responsible for blocking the investigation internally, or let them off without penalty, get high paying jobs with the banks they are supposed to regulate.
I know it is hard to believe, I worked for one of the largest multinationals and it took me a good dozen years, when I took the time to investigate and meet people with other points of view before I saw the enormity of my mistaken opinions. Most successful people rightfully delegate and defer to "authorities"; it takes the rare oomph and intellect/ experience of Elon to see through all the smoke and mirrors.
I still remember how Elon also had the balls to defy the local California authorities in May of 2020 and tell them to put HIM in jail first if they were to arrest anyone. It wasn't clear till later on (the Press made a good job of hiding this) that that Alameda official was out of sync with the state and was a paid consultant to the anti Tesla FUD.
To return to the main point: no, the Fed and other authorities are not doing the job they pretend to do - they are driving the country in worse condition than any rational government would do if it had the interests of its citizens* at large in mind. We more fortunate people don't suffer what the average US citizen has to endure: second rate education, out of reach medical costs, increasing real inflation, small businesses going bankrupt ( due to Covid closures, inordinate paperwork requirements only large corps can afford, unfair competition, misrepresentation leading to private doctor practices, small dairy farmers closing out or going out of business etc ). Oh and not to forget, they still do not recognize Tesla's prowess, actually do their best to crush it .. to the absurd point that now China touting its sensational Shanghai factory seem to the other world like *they* created Tesla's tech ... really...
Cui Bono?
(*) Citizens: average or wealthy but with some common sense or at least good tastes.
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Singapore does exactly this:
Not Vaccinated? In Singapore, You’ll Pay for Your Own Covid-19 Treatment
Maybe this is obvious to some - but 54,000 is close to 60,000; is the universe of cars with this feature the same as the FSD BETA? Just curious.OTA FSD “recall"
Tesla Is Recalling Nearly 54,000 U.S. Cars Over Software Feature
By Will Feuer Tesla Inc. is recalling almost 54,000 cars in the U.S. because of a feature of the company's Full Self-Driving software that could let cars...
Tesla Inc. is recalling almost 54,000 cars in the U.S. because of a feature of the company's Full Self-Driving software that could let cars roll through stop signs at intersections without coming to a complete stop.
…
To address the recall, Tesla will perform an over-the-air software update that disables the "rolling stop" feature, NHTSA said.
Also, not that it matters, but you can do this without any special software. Happened to me, 30+ years ago. Was arguing with the the other half and rolled right through (a stop sign at) an intersection in Chevy Chase, in front of a police car. Made an indelible impression on me as you can see. Permanent recall
.Felt like the thread needed some humor this morning.
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woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
NHTSA intentions are becoming a little clearer.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
What it means for Tesla: possibility that car buyer sentiment has shifted towards Tesla cars and EVs in general. Model Y UK launch might be having a BIG effect.
UK car market commentary
I get emails from discount brokers - it gives an idea of what dealers want to get rid of by listing discounts.
Reasons why info is tentative (I'll keep my eye on it): It's January, so it might be seasonal. Cars are in short supply.
UK car market commentary
I get emails from discount brokers - it gives an idea of what dealers want to get rid of by listing discounts.
Reasons why info is tentative (I'll keep my eye on it): It's January, so it might be seasonal. Cars are in short supply.
- Overall, smaller discounts than previously
- EVs from Volkswagen Group (Audi, VW, Skoda, Seat) are less discounted than before. 7% is highest for VW ID 3 & 4, Etron at 4.5% discount
- Highest EV discount at 8.5 % is Peugeot E-208 - I suspect E-2008 is more popular (no discounts listed for 2008)
- Biggest discounts on "prestigious" exec/SUVs - especially diesels - highest discounts on VW Tiguan/Touran - I didn't notice this before. These
areWERE presumably high-profit models, with priorities on chips - Model 3 form factor isn't ideal for UK market. Few saloons/sedans were sold prior to model 3, other than BMW 3 & equivalents. Most cars sold new are small hatchbacks, Golf or smaller. Most of the premium market has moved to SUVs over the last few years. Model Y is much better placed as a replacement for these premium cars (primarily diesel).
- Many of these cars are bought/leased by people who CAN have them as company cars OR can take a car allowance which is taxable at a high rate. Previously, this tax on ICE company cars made this madness and extra employer tax also meant most company car schemes turned into "car allowance" schemes. You were much better taking the allowance as taxable salary and buy/lease/PCP privately. Many people (and their employers who save tax) see the advantage of EV company cars and I think Model Y is the sweet spot for many of these people.
- You can have a Tesla company car for less money than a small ICE hatchback costs (irrespective of whether ICE hatchback is a company car or bought privately by taking car allowance through payroll) - especially as insurance is paid by employer
- Bonus is that many of these cars are at the higher mileage end: consultants, sales, area/national managers - so emissions reduced a lot
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