Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

But did we beat them on total Q4 EV ‘sells’? That’s what Gordon wants to know. I reckon it is close.

We'll never really know because sales to the dealers are not the same as sales to the customer.

 

[pitabun]

You did it Mary, you lied.

fixed

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Those EPS numbers are non-GAAP, whereas P/E ratio is usually based off of GAAP numbers. Therefore, Tesla's actual EPS in those scenarios will be slightly higher than your 92 and 56.

Yup, all throughout 2022 we're going to see GAAP increase faster than Non-GAAP due to the fact that Elon's compensation plan was artificially creating a bigger gap between GAAP and Non GAAP numbers and like you mentioned, since P/E is based on GAAP numbers, we're going to see an even more rapid compression of the P/E multiple.

Q1 and Q2's GAAP EPS of 2021 was $.39 and $1.02. Q1 2022 EPS (if those one time items that hit Q4's earnings that totaled 950 million are gone) will jump to around $2.80. Throw in another 50k of deliveries and it'll easily top GAAP EPS of $3.

 

[st_lopes]

GM just reported earnings and gave guidance of 13-15 billion in "operating" profits for 2022. Meaning 2022 will be the year that Tesla's passes GM's annual profits.....likely comfortably beating GM"s operating profits.

Fun fact.

GM posted 2.8B in automotive FCF for 2021. Oh wait… that includes 3.5B of dividends paid from GM Finance to auto… so your core auto business actually loses money?

Oh and their auto specific debt (excluding Finance) is now larger than their available assets. This is going to get ugly. Fast.

Edit: And next will be F posting “record breaking” EPS due to their RIVN position, all while lighting cash on fire in their core business.

I wonder what the different "road rules" he is referring to are. Maybe because we aren't allowed to drive while holding a loaded firearm in one hand?

Each province even has different rules. Flashing green lights mean COMPLETELY different things in BC than they do in QC. Not to mention can’t turn right on red in specific CITIES.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Except tesla just had to issue an OTA recall because it is illegal (and that's just an L2 system it gets far more significant for L3+ under current law)

Again, a car maker can not put an L3+ system on the road in any US state legally unless they certify it will obey all current traffic laws

Including speed limits.

The idea any car maker would ignore the law and release a system in violation of such law, when they (not the driver) would be assuming all liability for it, is simply absurd.


This issue isn't "the car could get a ticket"

The issue is it's illegal to even put that system on the road with that capability under current law.

We'll see. The safest and most efficient speed to be at for smooth traffic flow is at the prevailing speed of traffic. Drivers actually driving evaluating current conditions and adjusting speed to what is safe and efficient for conditions are a far better, smarter, real-time judge than some arbitrary bureaucrat that may have selected a value decades ago. Same with the rolling stop thing-it's more efficient in terms of traffic flow and not a danger issue in the hands of a competent driver, human or AI.

Now, common sense and safety may not carry the day and the bureaucrats and revenue collectors may actually insist on no violations of speed limits or other laws. Which, unfortunately, will annoy the living crap out of other drivers on the road.

GM just reported earnings and gave guidance of 13-15 billion in "operating" profits for 2022. Meaning 2022 will be the year that Tesla's passes GM's annual profits.....likely comfortably beating GM"s operating profits.

Isn't that about what Elon is paying in personal income tax?

 

[ZachF]

I read that Ford is going all in on EV manufacturing with a press release saying $10-$20B investment over the next 5-10 years (Reuters in my Fidelity portfolio feed).

Lol

Tesla will probably spend over $10b in CAPEX *this year*…

Five years from now they’ll probably be spending $50b+ per year.

 

[ZachF]

Google doing 20:1 stock split…Tesla?

 

[ZachF]

GM Q4 revenue was $33.6b vs $17.7b for Tesla… Tesla is less than one doubling of sales away from passing GM!

It’s gonna be weird seeing people tiptoeing around and trying not to name America’s largest automaker

 

[ZsoZso]

AMD up 10%. Just need Nvidia to not suck. Tech reversal here we GO!

Sure, there might be a Tech reversal, but TSLA is pure auto-stock, remember ?
TSLA only counts as a tech stock for WS when tech stocks are being sold down.

 

[Singuy]

In today's TA quick summery.

Vix crushed under 24 = bullish. Need to close under 20 for bull market confirmation
QQQ needs to close or break through above the 200 EMA at 369 for a face ripping rally to the 50 EMA
Tesla struggling to close above 940, which was our gap close support from last week. We need to break through this resistance and close above 955 for the next bullish signal

Overall, it's looking less like a dead cat bounce. Do expect a pull back at some point to test bullish break out support to confirm, but the bear market everyone is looking at seems to be less and less likely.

credit: Thestockchannel

 

[jerry33]

Fun fact.

GM posted 2.8B in automotive FCF for 2021. Oh wait… that includes 3.5B of dividends paid from GM Finance to auto… so your core auto business actually loses money?

Oh and their auto specific debt (excluding Finance) is now larger than their available assets. This is going to get ugly. Fast.

Edit: And next will be F posting “record breaking” EPS due to their RIVN position, all while lighting cash on fire in their core business.

Each province even has different rules. Flashing green lights mean COMPLETELY different things in BC than they do in QC. Not to mention can’t turn right on red in specific CITIES.

Try driving in Winnipeg where the lights are always red (with green arrows for "go").

 

[mblakele]

For me this is a required viewing...

Registration is free and it won't be recorded due to Jeff's request: Electric Vehicle Society - Canada Talks Electric Cars Webinar Episode #21 - "Recent Advancements to a Million Mile Battery"

Jeff Dahn will talk and describe recent advances in batteries work Feb 1st 4:30pm Pacific

EDIT: Corrected time to 4:30pm, thx @MP3Mike !

This starts soon, so I hope a reminder isn't unwelcome on this thread.

 

[Speedr117]

Jeff Dahn webinar is on zoom now

 

[nativewolf]

Tesla is also incredibly efficient with capital so the impact will likely be bigger that the numbers suggest.

Though Ford is seemingly making a good run at #2.

Ford does seem to be making a serious run. For a company with no EVs 3 years ago they have started turning a mammoth ship of entrenched interest. Gives one hope that Detroit may not fail completely. Biden needs to stop stroking GM's ego and pick up a stick.

 

[OrthoSurg]

So far so good. Today is a good short at resistance, take profit kind of day. However so far we have buyers preventing qqq from tanking. If shorts can't take out 360 then it'll be pretty scary for them going forward as 360 is a very easy resistance to attack. All eyes on today's close.

365 qqq close, 369 AH
Is this bullish or super bullish?

I guess we always need an exception for the 3 days rule. I was expecting a heavy profit taking day so I am happy in the end.

 

[Skryll]

My banker friend just called me asking about what he got from what he saw on Bloomberg 'News': Tesla is canceling their FSD? Are they refunding the $12k? I gave him the explanation of what the 'recall' story is actually about and he said wow, looks like the press is really having it out for Tesla. I laughed at him because I told him that in the last 4 years, but its the first time he actually realized it instead of categorizing it as fanboy talk. Unbelievable. The shorts must be scared and wanting out if they are stepping up the fake news that much...

 

[Singuy]

365 qqq close, 369 AH
Is this bullish or super bullish?

I guess we always need an exception for the 3 days rule. I was expecting a heavy profit taking day so I am happy in the end.

I think no one was expecting google's stock split which imo will scare away all the bears shorting at resistance, hoping to bring QQQ down. There's just way too much money sitting on the side because news flash, rates are still at 0% so there are no other alternatives.

But it was a good effort, brought the QQQ way under the 200 EMA. Any longer and they can successfully get the 50 to cross the 200 aka the death cross. However Appl and Google just kicked too much ass from earnings.

 

[Prunesquallor]

My banker friend just called me asking about what he got from what he saw on Bloomberg 'News': Tesla is canceling their FSD? Are they refunding the $12k? I gave him the explanation of what the 'recall' story is actually about and he said wow, looks like the press is really having it out for Tesla. I laughed at him because I told him that in the last 4 years, but its the first time he actually realized it instead of categorizing it as fanboy talk. Unbelievable. The shorts must be scared and wanting out if they are stepping up the fake news that much...

Seems interesting (and maybe bullish) that there is so much effort being made to discredit FSD. Some on this thread have opined that FSD general release is many years away, but someone seems pretty panicked about it now.

 

[betstarship]

Elon Musk has ~80,000 people working for him split between 4 companies: Tesla, SpaceX, Boring Company, and Neuralink.

 

[betstarship]

# of employees:

Amazon: ~1,300,000
Microsoft: ~181,000
Apple: ~154,000
Google: ~135,000
Tesla: ~71,000
Facebook: ~60,000
Netflix: ~9,400