TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
There's already a Gigafactory planned for Philadelphia. <-- (rumor I'm starting)
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
let's say Tesla wants to scale to a $3T-$5T company. They'll likely need to get to Amazon levels of employment scale across so many factories.
Outside of knowledge workers...won't Elon need robots to do tasks to cover all of the work needed to accomplish across all of his companies...including and especially SpaceX and Boring Company?
Outside of knowledge workers...won't Elon need robots to do tasks to cover all of the work needed to accomplish across all of his companies...including and especially SpaceX and Boring Company?
Found it! Cool. I've family just east of Indianapolis, too.
This ought to slow him down for a bit....
IMO They are talking about the domino effect.
And I'd agree, the legacy supply chain will unravel.
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
I didn't try to take notes on everything Jeff Dahn discussed, but here are some points that caught my attention:
- TL;DR: proven ability to exceed million mile durability with NMC532 plus electrolyte additives, enabling efficient V2G
- Useful electrolyte additives react before other electrolyte components, creating passivating films
- passivating films protect battery components while allowing Li+ transport
- examples:
- 2% by weight vinylene carbonate
- 1% LiPF2O2
- Finding good battery chemistries is hard
- Why care about million-mile batteries? V2G without hurting battery lifespan
- Why care about V2G? Battery supply
- Grid, utility, and construction should prepare for V2G and require V2G capabilities
- Vehicle packs should be designed & manufactured to support a second life as storage
- NMC523 cells with appropriate additives can outlive BMS and charging systems
- Q&A
- House rule: no Tesla questions
- Declined to discuss LFP for 4680
- Canada wants battery manufacturing (mentioned E-One Moli Energy)
- At Tesla's request, Cobalt content is getting lower and will disappear
- Need for V2G-capable vehicles and chargers (cost issues)
- Clarified that the "million mile battery" can handle full cycles 0-100% without strain
- ...plus lots more Q&A that didn't I didn't try to capture
Aside from that, I'd say the main point of interest for Tesla investors was that Jeff Dahn is quite vocal about V2G as a solution for climate change. That probably improves the odds that we'll see Tesla do something about V2G. However based on this talk I'd speculate that it might take another year or three, and Tesla's existing fleet probably won't be eligible.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
These are all unknowns. My new take is Tesla is not planning to enter the pickup market with all guns blazing but they may be planning an extended ramp of volume production as they further develop and refine the production techniques of this piece of alien technology known as Cybertruck.
One way to look at it is development of efficient production takes generations of vehicles. Tesla was able to take what they learned from manufacturing the Model S, released in 2012, and apply it to the Model 3 and then the Model Y over an 8-year period. And with the Model S they started with all the learnings of the legacy auto industry who has been building modern sedans since the late 1990's.
To my way of thinking the Model Y with the structural battery and cast front and rear is fourth or sixth generation (counting at least one or two generations before the Model S, learnings from legacy auto). But the chassis of the Cybertruck has absolutely nothing in common with any existing vehicle so Tesla will iterate designs (generations) at least one time before moving to really high-volume production.
As someone who is waiting to take delivery and is probably around 40K-50K Cybertrucks behind the first delivery, this is very disappointing. Crushing really. But from a business/investment standpoint, I think it's the only realistic way to proceed. And, as long as Tesla has a never-ending stream of buyers so they can continue to ramp Models 3 and Y, and I believe they do, this will not slow them down. It might allow even higher unit growth because the most popular version of the Cybertruck will probably have around 120-150 kWh of battery capacity and initial production will likely be on the higher end of this range. So, Tesla can build 1.75 cars for every Cybertruck they don't build once batteries become the limiting factor again.
I also think Cybertruck margins will not be as favorable as people like Munro projected. I don't think Munro had anyway to know that Tesla would keep making the thing better. I also don't think Munro had a good grip on how much it would cost to fabricate the exoskeleton. Some people think Tesla will have to raise the announced prices of the Cybertruck to avoid building it at a loss but I don't see that. What I think they've done is pushed it down the road until the better economics of 4680 cells in volume production can lower the price of batteries enough and they have time to develop more finely tuned high-volume production techniques that will make the announced prices viable. In the short interim, Tesla will release the Quad-motor at a price closer to $100K for those who are less price sensitive and just have to own the most awesome truck ever made.
The good news from my personal perspective? This will probably move me up to somewhere around the first 10K of production (maybe all Quad motor).
The bad news is it will be a first generation Cybertruck that will probably not be nearly as refined as the second generation that might be hitting volume production around 2025-2026. I'm preparing for the worst but hoping for the best. From an investment perspective the best news of all is that Elon Musk/Tesla has shown incredible restraint and knows how important it is to not make big dollar moves before it's time. So, I have full confidence the Cybertruck will not be an economic disaster for investors, at worse it will simply not be a major part of their growth. And that's if Cybertruck turns out to not be very viable or practical to make. It's more likely that the Cybertruck will be huge, just later than we assumed. Tesla has been unbelievably good about mitigating and preventing big disasters. At worst, things are late.
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ZachF
Active Member
Lol, it’s actually NH!
In reality though, I think Nashville is probably the most likely choice for Gigafactory east.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Patience patience. Tons of blowout tech earnings and now a goog split. Things are rotating in the right direction again.
This little news item has me hugely bullish too.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/P3NEERSWAVMW5K5EYXMLUR332Q.jpg)
Putin accuses U.S. of trying to lure Russia into war
Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West on Tuesday of deliberately creating a scenario designed to lure it into war and ignoring Russia's security concerns over Ukraine.
www.reuters.com
Gonna buy some SCO(ultrashort crude) tomorrow morning.
I can see it now, on the Q1 2023 earnings call Elon is asked, "Why did you choose Philadelphia as the location for Tesla's next factory?" Elon: "Well I was just reading TMC one day and..."
It's very expensive to build roads in B.C. because the mountains are all rock, so there's not much left over after the basic road has been built. There are other reasons, but that's the big one.In Canada it's considered bad manners to idle your car near an igloo because that can give your home a dingy appearance before summer happens. While a Tesla has no emissions, maybe they have to make sure FSD can respect this tradition.
Seriously though, I live right across the border from you and the thing I notice when I visit Canada is everyone drives in a sane manner (for the most part) and respects the speed limits. But on Washington highways it's always the cars with B.C. plates that want to drive 90 mph. I don't understand why Canadians drive so differently when they cross the border. Maybe speeding tickets in the US don't count on your driving record? Of course, this was pre-pandemic which seems like an eternity ago.
I think the most obvious difference from a FSD driving standpoint is the signage is quite different. Because the rules and conventions seem very similar for the most part.
Also, while Canadian superhighways are quite nice, it seems the standards on many secondary roads that are driven at highway speeds can be more dangerous, more often than in the US. It's hard to generalize but I do notice in lower BC there are a lot of areas where drivers must move across high-speed lanes and merge into high-speed traffic with narrower shoulders and without as many markings, pavement reflectors, signage, rails, crash barriers and such designed to make the intersections safer. Some of these exchanges are downright confusing, especially on a dark night. I've always managed to figure them out, but it does seem like there is a lot less margin for error and it will more of a challenge for FSD. I think the difference is real, not just a product of what I'm accustomed to. I have no experience driving Canadian roads east of the Rockies so maybe standards increase in Central and Eastern Canada.
A couple mentioned it yesterday....i believe you are referring to thestockschannel. If you are going to give credit you'll want to ensure it is given to the right person.
If this was posted yesterday forgive me.
There will be a new ETF "TSLH" that aims to provide exposure to TSLA gains but without as much downside. The fund will hold 80% in treasury bills and 20% in basically a bull call spread. They suggest average quarterly gains will be capped at ~22%. While of little use to those of us here (anyone could pretty much replicate this strategy) I find this really interesting. First because it goes to show how unique TSLA that such an ETF will exist, but also because it suggests there is demand/interest in TSLA that is turned off by the downside volatility.
I question that. Granted-EVs by their nature overall are simpler, with fewer components and systems, and likely take fewer employees to produce. But within that framework, Tesla is, overall, likely to have more direct employees than GM. Tesla is highly integrated and (I believe) builds a higher content of the components used in their cars than other company. GM in turn outsources a large portion of their component manufacturing. They especially outsource a disproportionate part of their component production to foreign manufacturers. This leads to Tesla being the "most American car" with the highest percentage of US made content of any car maker. They don't seem inclined to change that, if anything going the other way and building more in-house.
The takeaway? If GM goes under, those jobs aren't lost. They may be displaced, moved to other parts of the country. But not lost to the US-assuming that it is a US manufacturer that picks up this volume. And if it is Tesla that picks up the volume of cars GM loses, likely there will be more American jobs, not less. Now, if our government chooses to yet again meddle in the free market, to try to pick winners and losers, to punish successful, innovative, progressive companies, and reward slow-moving, entrenched ones that are afraid to take risks, to innovate; they don't help the poorly run companies, who are doomed to failure anyway. All they do is harm the successful ones. And that, in turn, leads to fewer jobs, and a higher number of imported products and damaged US industries.
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SunCatcher
Member
"Disables rolling stop functionality in all FSD profiles."
So... recall is over? Just like that?
I'm sure that will be in all the headlines tomorrow.
/s.
The best thing about this recall is that I know my car will definitely get this 10.10 update and fast."Disables rolling stop functionality in all FSD profiles."
So... recall is over? Just like that?
I'm sure that will be in all the headlines tomorrow.
/s.
I was mostly being a little glib and hadn’t really fleshed out the idea. My thinking was Tesla opens a factory in that area and starts hiring in large numbers. Now Tesla is one of the biggest employers in those swing states. Politicians would be forced to pay attention to such a big employer in a swing state.
I’m going to go back to sharpening my chainsaw now.
I should have just started a comment, not a reply, since it was more general than your message. In the end, I think we're saying a lot of the same things. The issue with Tesla putting a plant in MI, is that the state has become somewhat "anti-business". It's hardly a coincidence that all the foreign auto companies that have set up assembly operations in this country have avoided the traditional, "rust belt" states.
The flip side, doing as you suggest, placing Tesla operations in the same states that have GM plants, does negate the incentive to support one company vs the other in terms of political support. I suppose it's pretty cynical to think that our political class might be willing to help or harm one American business, one group of American citizens, vs another, all because of how they feel it impacts votes. But it's hard to ignore.
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Over time, such a fund will greatly underperform direct ownership of TSLA. But you can avoid the volatility (both to the upside and the downside).
Toilet boy might be interested in some of these to help balance some of the losses from his short position until Tesla finally proves that it's a big, fat zero!
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