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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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# of employees:

Amazon: ~1,300,000
Microsoft: ~181,000
Apple: ~154,000
Google: ~135,000
Tesla: ~71,000
Facebook: ~60,000
Netflix: ~9,400
How current is that number for Tesla?

Looks like it was 70,757* in 2020. I’d have thought they‘d have continued their aggressive hiring and that it would be higher by now. They’ve already hired some people for GigaBerlin, iirc.

*Number of Tesla employees 2020 | Statista
 
… Aside from that, I'd say the main point of interest for Tesla investors was that Jeff Dahn is quite vocal about V2G as a solution for climate change. That probably improves the odds that we'll see Tesla do something about V2G. However based on this talk I'd speculate that it might take another year or three, and Tesla's existing fleet probably won't be eligible.
Why would Dahn’s enthusiasm increase the odds of Tesla doing something about V2G?

Tesla is working on increasing use of their cars to actually transport people by developing FSD for deployment to robotaxis. A car that is moving cannot be engaged in V2G (I doubt there’s a sensible wireless use case).

Elon has made it clear that FSD is very much on the front burner. I don’t recall him saying anything much that indicates any enthusiasm for V2G.

Also, Tesla already has a stationary energy storage business.
 
Why would Dahn’s enthusiasm increase the odds of Tesla doing something about V2G?

Tesla is working on increasing use of their cars to actually transport people by developing FSD for deployment to robotaxis. A car that is moving cannot be engaged in V2G (I doubt there’s a sensible wireless use case).

Elon has made it clear that FSD is very much on the front burner. I don’t recall him saying anything much that indicates any enthusiasm for V2G.

Also, Tesla already has a stationary energy storage business.
Oh, I’m not saying that it’s a foregone conclusion. It may never happen. But I suppose Musk respects Dahn, and would listen to his arguments in favor of developing V2G capabilities with an open mind.
 
I'm missing the appeal of V2G. I want my battery full(ish) when I leave my garage. I don't want it at 25% or 50% or wherever my house or grid load put it. My car battery SOC needs to be a function of my driving needs.

I do understand the appeal as emergency, but Dahns passion for it confuses me
V2G does practically nothing for a South California and areas with good climate, stable utility services.

Gamechanger and life saver for some regions like Texas where power was knocked out.

Was amazing to hear stories of people keeping their babies warm by staying inside their Model 3.

Equally heartbreaking to hear stories of those who lost their families by running ICE engines in their closed garages.
 
I'm missing the appeal of V2G. I want my battery full(ish) when I leave my garage. I don't want it at 25% or 50% or wherever my house or grid load put it. My car battery SOC needs to be a function of my driving needs.

I do understand the appeal as emergency, but Dahns passion for it confuses me

I would love to have V2G. When I'm in the house, the car is usually charged or at least mostly so. With a 1M mile battery that charges 0-100% without degradation, the EV battery would be nearly fully charged most days. If there's a power outage, the car's battery would take over by default and I could choose to disable it if necessary, but that would be rare.

I don't see the point of having a full set of powerwalls to handle outages that happen a few times a year. Optimizing electric usage up to 20-40% of the battery capacity would be fine most days, and disabled only before a road trip.
 
Lol, sales down 15% while the stock is up 5%, and up 60% over 2 years.

And this is only with Tesla making up around 2% market share. Should be interesting to see how legacy does now that Tesla’s 50% growth starts eating bigger and bigger chunks of their business. 2.2% in 2021, then 3.3, 4.95, 7.4, 11.1, 16, 25%…

Plus other ev makers taking market share, legacy’s own evs creating an osbourne effect, negative economies of scale.

If I didn’t think I could make more money by being long Tesla I’d definitely short GM
 
V2G does practically nothing for a South California and areas with good climate, stable utility services.

Gamechanger and life saver for some regions like Texas where power was knocked out.

Was amazing to hear stories of people keeping their babies warm by staying inside their Model 3.

Equally heartbreaking to hear stories of those who lost their families by running ICE engines in their closed garages.

I would love to have V2G. When I'm in the house, the car is usually charged or at least mostly so. With a 1M mile battery that charges 0-100% without degradation, the EV battery would be nearly fully charged most days. If there's a power outage, the car's battery would take over by default and I could choose to disable it if necessary, but that would be rare.

I don't see the point of having a full set of powerwalls to handle outages that happen a few times a year. Optimizing electric usage up to 20-40% of the battery capacity would be fine most days, and disabled only before a road trip.
So, both of you mention emergency needs. I see that being the only attractive use case....and one that does not need a 1M mile battery for. Only using your car battery like a powerwall and daily V2G duty cycling justify the 1M mile aspect, which doesn't make sense to me because I want my car mostly charged when I get in it at random times during the day or night.
 
Looks like Starlink is upping the game.

View attachment 763752

It's doing a Tesla Master Plan Part Uno - let the deep pocketed folks pay for the R&D and production ramping now that the concept has been proven to be solid. Deep pockets aren't hard to figure, traders of all kinds (recall NYC to London is faster via Space than buried fiber cable, so the HFT and hedge funds will love the ability to shave another few milliseconds in colocated server rooms - for their totally senseless profit making off trade flow), and the military. Rock on!

FYI - it's about 5X the price of the single dish ( $2,500 hardware, $500 /mo ) for those interested
 
So, both of you mention emergency needs. I see that being the only attractive use case....and one that does not need a 1M mile battery for. Only using your car battery like a powerwall and daily V2G duty cycling justify the 1M mile aspect, which doesn't make sense to me because I want my car mostly charged when I get in it at random times during the day or night.
Th real use case is of course to optimise grid use with flexible pricing. Most people on this forum aren't bothered by their electricity bills but outside, many people will like the tens to hundreds of dollars of savings that can be made.
 
Every time the SP goes down a bunch, the conspiracy theories start flying here. Can we agree on one thing: anyone threatened by Tesla (Big Oil, Legacy Auto, etc) is not going to attack Tesla via its SP. That would be very expensive, and for absolutely no benefit. Tesla is self-funding its operations now and into the future, it's not going to the markets to raise money. It doesn't do that many acquisitions-for-stock. Tesla's success or failure at this point has nothing to do with whether the SP at the end of the year is 2000 or 500!

The mainstream media may have ownership and advertising conflicts that could distort its coverage, but the far simpler explanation for its negative coverage is that it thrives on eyeballs, and stories about recalls and crashes and fires attract eyeballs.

Who is left to be manipulating the markets: traders! Retail and institutional, big and small. Short and long. Do they conspire? Not in the sense of getting together in a back room, but traders certainly have a herd mentality, and many are looking at the exact same price movements and TA to make their own moves. Short traders will take any opportunity to drive the SP down, and they live for the days when there is enough fear in the market (or fear about Tesla) that their momentary push down of the SP causes a calvacade of selling. On days when that isn't working, they will do everything they can to cap moves higher. Meanwhile. long traders are doing the opposite, making trades to set floors and looking for opportunities to trigger a steep march.

TSLA, with an enormous global investor interest both for common equity and options, and a high growth stock with a high PE, is the wet dream of traders.

Do most of these traders care about Tesla, the company? Not one iota! For all they care, Tesla could be in the toilet paper business! Most short traders aren't trying to hurt the company, just the SP!

How about TMC posters? I'd divide us into three camps. A minority of us are primarily traders. (Good luck to you, but you really should be doing something more useful to society than trading.) The largest group of us are the folks who mostly invest long term, but we can't resist the occasional short term trade. I fall in this category, and I'd really appreciate professional therapy to stop myself from doing any short term trading, because it seldom ends well, and is bad for my digestive system. And then there are the folks here who just invest for the long term. God bless their resistance to temptation. None of these trader shenanigans makes the slightest difference to them. But even for this blessed group, it's hard not to feel bad when the paper value of your account goes into the toilet, and you may even get angry and start looking for villains to blame.

And so, another 16,000 pages of this thread will continue to demonize "them", when in fact, the problem is us. Stop trading, Stop worrying. Be more like Elon: do something productive, and invest in the future of innovation.
 
I would love to have V2G. When I'm in the house, the car is usually charged or at least mostly so. With a 1M mile battery that charges 0-100% without degradation, the EV battery would be nearly fully charged most days. If there's a power outage, the car's battery would take over by default and I could choose to disable it if necessary, but that would be rare.

I don't see the point of having a full set of powerwalls to handle outages that happen a few times a year. Optimizing electric usage up to 20-40% of the battery capacity would be fine most days, and disabled only before a road trip.
Exactly! Until Elon makes power walls that can FSD themselves to deliver groceries or something when not providing backup power, I’d like my model X to do a little off hours duty as autobidder or distributed power provider and home power backup.

The battery’s plenty big to always have enough for the occasional unplanned trip to the grocery store or whatever.
 
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Tesla is working on increasing use of their cars to actually transport people by developing FSD for deployment to robotaxis. A car that is moving cannot be engaged in V2G (I doubt there’s a sensible wireless use case).
A car will never be always moving, in fact, it will have plenty of time during the night (at least outside of huge cities where life is 24/7) where there's even know-in-advance time off for the car.
This would f.e. match very well with the idea of charging to 100% during the last sunny hours of a day, move people around, and use excess power that will not be needed in the morning (which can be know statistically, given the fleet is big enough) to f.e. power the heating of houses.

Tesla having a storage business should not hold them back for what's best for the climate in using resources that are already there.
 
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Berlin has really only 1 of your 4. Land.

Shipping logistics for Berlin is not great, the auto talent is not in Berlin, the govt...haha ha .

Berlin was chosen to stick a knife in the German OEMs. Poland would have been better for many things. Spain for others. The UK for more as well. Berlin was all about politics.

Here we are again, I don't understand your negativity against Germany/Berlin, but you are simply wrong. Have you actually ever been to Germany/Europe?


I actually don't have the energy to detail a counter-argument to you, so 4 quick bullet points:
  • Land: the reason the site was offered to Tesla / Tesla chose it is that it was previously intended for a BMW plant, and a lot of the preliminary permitting groundwork had been done already. It is located next to a major east-west and north-south highways for road-access, as well as a direct rail-link onto the site
  • I don't think we need to talk about its location vis-a-vis the market - considering shipping logistics: see above. (there is no need to be located near a harbor, since GigaBerlin will manufacture for Europe first and foremost, and that is all reachable over land
  • While Berlin is not traditionally a hub of automotive talent, it is a a popular location for young people to live, and the close proximity to Poland (and the "automotive corridor" Wroclaw - Katowice - Krakau for sub-suppliers) for Polish laborers
  • The German government is more supportive of Tesla than you can imagine. Please do not confuse the painful duration of the final permitting process with a lack of support in the government - also Elon does not want subsidies

Giga UK - have you heard of Brexit? Also, other than their own market - the nearest other right-hand drive countries are closer to Shanghai than the UK, or indeed India.

Politics - Spain 😂 (no offense to our Spanish friends here), Poland - 🤦‍♂️ - Also, there's a serious skilled labor shortage in Poland. It's all left to other countries in Europe for better working conditions and pay. Poland imports cheap labor from Belarus and Ukraine. The high-skilled engineering and tech employees that Tesla requires will not relocated to Poland.


Aarrgghh.....I used more of my energy than I wanted.

Please - let's stop this anti-Berlin/Germany rhetoric.

Thanks.