Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Curious if inventories built up why do people report shortages of items? Then again the shortages may not be real, just political.

People are stacking inventories because of shortages, especially in intermediate products.

Also, inflation rising faster than wages is killing retail sales.

 

[Paul_SF]

“Most people have no idea” - Elon Musk

 

[TheTalkingMule]

A lot of recession formulas are based heavily on the cost of energy spiking dramatically and cooling off growth. I'm of the opinion this crude spike is entirely Wall Street.

Reality is crude demand has peaked and high futures pricing is about to draw forward massive US production that will flood the market and crash pricing for the better part of a year.

In that kind of environment, especially with huge infrastructure and potentially BBB spending in the background, it's hard for me to see a recession becoming reality in the near term. I think we're closer to the middle of the roaring 20's(in both a good and bad sense).

 

[jbcarioca]

Uh - please Google "Jekyll Island federal reserve 1913" of see this short recap or the TL;DR there among others

The Federal Reserve does not answer to the US public, its President (or head etc) is nominated by the US President. Said president really has never had a choice, all his Treasury Secretaries are mostly Goldman Sachs alums. So essentially the Fed serves its 7 or so constituent banks (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan etc)

The key feature of the Federal Reserve is that the US Treasury has to borrow money from the Federal Reserve to create US currency, instead of simply printing its own money. The last President who thought it made more sense to have the Treasury print its own money was JFK (John F Kennedy); he started to make a move in that direction, but eh .. we know how that ended.

Sorry to make it so simple, and without the appropriate references. EMSK (Elon Musk) figured way back when he started his X.com bank that even the payment systems were archaic and lacked clarity/ efficiency. Probably a good thing, else he'd end up butting heads with the Fed Head FUDster JP Morgan and JP Morgan et al, financiers of the oil & gas companies


Edit: added later, this timely Feb 1st article spells it out so clearly:

"

New Questions Emerge: Is the New York Fed Working for the American People or the Wall Street Banks that Own It?​

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: February 1, 2022 ~

Adding to a very long laundry list of questions about exactly whom the New York Fed serves, is the help-wanted ad that was posted four days ago. The ad is for a Financial Planning & Analysis Expert to work at the New York Fed’s headquarters in lower Manhattan. One part of the job description is this: “modelling of potential investment opportunities.”

The New York Fed is supposed to be implementing monetary policy on behalf of the United States as mandated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As far as public FOMC records indicate, the New York Fed has not been assigned the job of seeking out “potential investment opportunities.” So for whom is it seeking out these investment opportunities? Is it looking for profit-making investments for the Wall Street megabanks who own it and whose CEOs rotate on and off its Board of Directors? Had the New York Fed not become so cozy with these megabank executives, one would not have to be asking that question.

Every time there is a massive Fed bailout of these megabanks, the New York Fed manages to be the entity creating trillions of dollars out of thin air for the bailouts; handing out no-bid contracts to manage the bailouts to the same megabanks being bailed out; and then locking up for two years the names of the banks that got all the loot so that the public’s attention has moved on when the shocking details are finally revealed.

Consider the chart below reflecting the largest secret borrowers from the New York Fed’s emergency repo loans that it funneled to Wall Street trading houses in the last quarter of 2019. These trading houses were receiving trillions of dollars from the New York Fed in cumulative loans, that morphed from overnight loans to term loans for as long as 42 days at a time, and yet neither the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington, D.C. nor the New York Fed have offered any credible explanation for what this financial crisis was all about. Clearly, it was unrelated to COVID-19 because the emergency repo loans began on September 17, 2019 – months before the first case of COVID-19 was reported anywhere in the world.
< snip>
... "

New Questions Emerge: Is the New York Fed Working for the American People or the Wall Street Banks that Own It?

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: February 1, 2022 ~ Adding to a very long laundry list of questions about exactly whom the New York Fed serves, is the

wallstreetonparade.com

Keep quoting things that are misleading and or incorrect. You're presenting a political view of a quite reasonable structure. As for monetary policy you're incorrect on the facts, as usual. There are enough problems in the systems that misrepresenting them through quotations from unqualified people iis unnecessary.
Pease study how Central Banks work, how they differ from, say, Currency Boards, then learn how and why Repo operations exist. The basic banking texts, any of them, can explain how banks do create liquidity and how the money supplies grow and shrink. You don't mention Foreign Exchange, although that has just as many such features.

As for emergency repo etc, those are basic Central Bank operations. Yes, the numbers are gigantic. Yes, the largest institutions typically have the largest repo operations. There is nothing inherently nefarious about any of that.

The facts are important. So is truth. One need not exaggerate and mislead to find flaws, serious flaws, in the system. That Goldman Sachs has had so many top executives moving back and forth is provocative. Somehow you forget Black Rock, they're far more consequential than is Goldman Sachs if you want to do some muckraking.

We should be discussing Tesla specifics. A throwaway about x.com actually could be instructive since it was one of the early non-bank banks which were invented a few years earlier by a visionary who found that a bank under the Bank Holding Company Act had to take consumer deposits and make commercial loans, but FDIC rules dealt only with deposits so the non-bank bank was created, so Industrial Loan Companies were bought to convert to FDIC insured consumer banks, mostly credit card issuers. The Elon innovation was to expand that concept and deal, first, with consumer payments. His vision was to expand services to compete with traditional banks on almost every front. With other PayPal people disagreeing Elon was driven out. To this day, bit by bit, Tesla is inching towards those types of services. We only talk about car insurance. Those of us who were around in the 1980's for the advent of non-bank banks and x.com know he'll gradually do more while being acutely aware of the impediments.

When any of us bleat about inane criticism of systemic issues we reveal lack of understanding. Elon, truthfully, is both patient and persistent. He does take a bit longer to do impossible things, but he does do them.

Frankly, I do think people at TMC are mostly underestimating Mr. Musk and his team. The best hints of all are in the Tesla generation of Free Cash Flow in the midst of enormous growth. Most of us think about FSD and Robotaxi. Those are huge, but they are not as consequential as Free Cash Flow with >50% annual growth. That enables everything else we dream about.

 

[Krugerrand]

Looks like Starlink is upping the game.

View attachment 763752

This is going to make Mountain security impenetrable. @Unpilot lost before he even began.

 

[mrmtb]

A lot of recession formulas are based heavily on the cost of energy spiking dramatically and cooling off growth. I'm of the opinion this crude spike is entirely Wall Street.

Reality is crude demand has peaked and high futures pricing is about to draw forward massive US production that will flood the market and crash pricing for the better part of a year.

In that kind of environment, especially with huge infrastructure and potentially BBB spending in the background, it's hard for me to see a recession becoming reality in the near term. I think we're closer to the middle of the roaring 20's(in both a good and bad sense).

Are you doing any oil trades?

 

[ZachF]

A lot of recession formulas are based heavily on the cost of energy spiking dramatically and cooling off growth. I'm of the opinion this crude spike is entirely Wall Street.

Reality is crude demand has peaked and high futures pricing is about to draw forward massive US production that will flood the market and crash pricing for the better part of a year.

In that kind of environment, especially with huge infrastructure and potentially BBB spending in the background, it's hard for me to see a recession becoming reality in the near term. I think we're closer to the middle of the roaring 20's(in both a good and bad sense).

Currently the Atlanta fed is forecasting 0% growth for q1.

Even with a recession, the economy will probably grow over 2% this year.

I do think the roaring 20s will happen, but it will take until the latter half of the decade to really get into full swing with ultra cheap RE energy combined with productivity-enhancing tech.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

GM all over CNBC this morning. Now Cramer's explaining how Ford is going to run an ICE operation right alongside the EV operation and be wildly successful because "they have plenty of money". Lol....wait til the investors look under the hood in 2024 and realize they've been shafted.

Market seems to be pushing down TSLA premarket. Best of luck! Huge call walls at $1000 each of the next 3 weeks. A large battle is afoot.

 

[Krugerrand]

On the topic of manipulation....I can only imagine how much less "volitility" and gamma TSLA would have on a day like Tuesday vs what @Papafox details in his excellent analysis for Tuesday here....I wish someone cared and studied the behavior to expose it.

Well, tell everyone you know and encourage them to tell everyone they know and perhaps it’ll get into the ear of the right person. I don’t directly know that person, but I am always on the lookout. You can do the same. The world can often be a whole lot smaller than you think.

 

[woodisgood]

This is going to make Mountain security impenetrable. @Unpilot lost before he even began.

#Unpilotled

 

[Unpilot]

Buttonwood tree market

How do I get in that market?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Are you doing any oil trades?

I'm sticking to screwing up TSLA trades, that's enough for me.

There really aren't any good vehicles for shorting the price of oil on a 2-10 week horizon. Other than selling actual barrels of course.

I think we'll see oil traders crash pricing again in February. Won't get to zero again, but the opportunity is dangling out there.

 

[Discoducky]

No mention of the Bolt or it's closed factory at all in GM's earnings call, I think it might truly be dead and buried at this point.

With that in mind, I honestly do think GM will sell less EV's in Q1 2022 than the (26) they sold in Q4 2021!

They do mention it on page 17 Yeah, not looking good for starting production in Q1 or Q2, or I think they'd of mentioned it...

And a bit of a joke of a highlight on China is that the Wuling Mini EV is the top seller and coming to Europe as the FreZe Nikrob EV, where hopefully we'll get actual crash data

 

[Unpilot]

This is going to make Mountain security impenetrable. @Unpilot lost before he even began.

Ha....silly cat ...think more like a Dune type attack....maybe

 

[bkp_duke]

This is going to make Mountain security impenetrable. @Unpilot lost before he even began.

Can't defend against ICBMs at hypersonic speeds, and megawatt space lasers.

Don't shoot the messenger.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

When I moved to the Kensington part of North Philadelphia 15 years ago we had a HUGE problem with cats. They were everywhere. Spraying my car and doors to mark their territory. Craping everywhere.

After a good amount of research it became clear the only viable solution to cats pooping in your yard was to make your neighbor's yard a more attractive destination. So I took a couple bags of sand, dug a hole in an empty lot, and created a better destination half a block away. Worked quite well.

The lesson here being, when dealing with cats......aggression only makes things worse. As we move from a fossil-fuel and penetration-based society into renewables-based sustainable abundance, I think you'll find the more passive solutions are the only ones that work.

If you want to get on that mountain, I'd trying walking up with a can of high-end imported tuna fish.

 

[Unpilot]

Tying up Battery supply

Panasonic Says Tesla Will Get Top Priority in Supply of 4680 Batteries

By Yang Jie TOKYO--Panasonic Corp., a battery supplier to electric-vehicle maker Tesla Inc., said it expected to start trial production this year of a new,...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Singuy]

Didn't think shorts would let us take 200 Ema that easily on the qqq. Battle line today.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is the part where MM's try to eat all the buy volume and hold SP down against clear momentum. Super cute.

It's mornings like this that make me want to buy intra-week calls.

 

[jbcarioca]

“Most people have no idea” - Elon Musk

This is my favorite post ever, and my spouse's too. We visited Shenyang first in 1978, which created memories especially because we had been married only a few months when we were invited by a Chinese Government entity (long story, seriously OT). From nostalgia we went back in 2019 for tourism. This video not only was Teslaphilic, but brought back all those memories. We did not visit that particular noodle shop, though.
Thank you very much!