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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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That doesn't make sense. My over-arching point is we don't live in a perfect world where VTG actually has the net benefits people think it has. Ford might need the VTG gimmick to sell their poorly engineered, overweight, poor-handling trucks for a very high price and add to their margins by selling this high margin option, but Tesla doesn't need that and will not offer it. This will not turn out to be a strategic mistake.

If you need or want the feature that bad, please switch to Ford. Tesla is not worried. And for good reason. I don't expect you to see it how I see it but I'm confident this is the smart, forward-thinking decision. Tesla should not be tempted to add every feature some of their customers think they want. They don't need to do that either.
More generally, it's a V2L capability. V2H has been mentioned a lot, but it has other utility for work or play.
I volunteer at the Portland/South Portland, ME NDEW event and I can easily think of a way in which V2L would be useful there.
Now imagine contractors at work sites powering a bunch of power tools, and charging batteries.
 
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Let's say the share price gets capped in the 950-1000 range until Q1 earnings where Tesla prints a GAAP EPS of $3. Well then the forward P/E gets compressed to 60. At that point, the stock will be forced higher by 20-25% higher


Weren't we just told a week ago SP is going up from Q4 ER because P/E will "force" that to happen....yet here we sit a week after earnings lower than before earnings and ~25% off ATH?

Is forward P/E the new "THIS QUARTER IS THE ONE THEY WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO REALIZE..." meme?
 
Weren't we just told a week ago SP is going up from Q4 ER because P/E will "force" that to happen....yet here we sit a week after earnings lower than before earnings and ~25% off ATH?

Is forward P/E the new "THIS QUARTER IS THE ONE THEY WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO REALIZE..." meme?
Seemingly wall street has the mental capacity of a 5 year old. It cant retain knowledge, and just stares what what is in front of it.

Probably will take a few more stupid slaps for wall street to make them look at the next quarters numbers instead of looking at trailing quarters and over compensating to the downside for macro conditions with supply chain etc etc
 
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Seemingly wall street has the mental capacity of a 5 year old. It cant retain knowledge, and just stares what what is in front of it.

Probably will take a few more stupid slaps for wall street to make them look at the next quarters numbers instead of looking at trailing quarters and over compensating to the downside for macro conditions with supply chain etc etc
I assume there is a pause until actual deliveries begin at either Berlin or Austin - then it will be a go on letting the stock run up. I like feeling that selling covered calls is very dangerous
 
It's worth pointing out that while QQQ is positive on the day, ARKK is down quite substantially. I know many here may not agree, but there still appears to be large overlap in investment philosophies for TSLA and ARKK. If we take today as any indication, it seems there is still quite a lot of fretting about P/Es, even if macros are looking up in the short term.
Arkk is getting hammered today due to Paypal which affects all e-commerce/fintech stocks. However Arkk may establish a higher low today. We will see Paypal and the sector recover on the 3rd day post earnings.

As for today, EV stocks are all getting hammered, but most likely establishing a higher low.
 
Weren't we just told a week ago SP is going up from Q4 ER because P/E will "force" that to happen....yet here we sit a week after earnings lower than before earnings and ~25% off ATH?

Is forward P/E the new "THIS QUARTER IS THE ONE THEY WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO REALIZE..." meme?
Ok if you don't want to acknowledge the difference between a forward p/e of 200 to 150 to 90 to 60 to 50 then laugh 🤷‍♂️

Doesn't change the fact that the vast majority of the p/e compression has already happened and that there's little room to compress anymore. Whether that means a forward p/e of 90 or 60 or 50 is most it can compress, we don't know. But it doesn't change the fact that we're getting close to a breaking point where the stock is forced higher based on that metric simply because of how much Tesla is growing earnings quarter over quarter.
 
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OT - Falcon launch in ~25 min


Brand-new Space-X Falcon9 Booster sticks the landing (to be reflown for NROL later this yr)

snapshot.NROL87.BoosterLanding.2022-02-02.jpg
 
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Ok if you don't want to acknowledge the difference between a forward p/e of 90 or 60 or 40 then laugh 🤷‍♂️

Doesn't change the fact that the vast majority of the p/e compression has already happened and that there's little room to compress anymore. Whether that means a forward p/e of 90 or 60 or 50 is most it can compress, we don't know. But it doesn't change the fact that we're getting close to a breaking point where the stock is forced higher based on that metric simply because of how much Tesla is growing earnings quarter over quarter.
These are valid points. Though I don't expect this to happen with Tesla, I am old enough to remember AAPL trading at ~10 PE, ( probably after adjusting for cash on balance sheet) with gangbusters growth. Might have been right after jobs, but can't remember exactly.

Of course they got rid of a lot of that cash by buying back shares, and look at where they trade these days.

So that's roughly is a lower bound for me on how irrational markets can get.
 
These are valid points. Though I don't expect this to happen with Tesla, I am old enough to remember AAPL trading at ~10 PE, ( probably after adjusting for cash on balance sheet) with gangbusters growth. Might have been right after jobs, but can't remember exactly.

Of course they got rid of a lot of that cash by buying back shares, and look at where they trade these days.

So that's roughly is a lower bound for me on how irrational markets can get.
After the financial crisis, Apple seems to be trading at 10-15 PE even with YOY growth above 50% from 2009-2011. So this is what a bear market can look like. Apple's PE normally are not above 30 looking between 2006-2022. Out of those 16 years, it spent 3 years with a PE over 30, and 10+ years with a PE under 20. Operating margins were above 25% during most of this time period.

So if we do go into a bear market, then I wouldn't be surprised Tsla can have its sp cut in half even with over 50% growth. However the chance of a bear market is around 15%ish historically as 85% of the run down are corrections and major bear markets usually happen with a pretty big gigantic events(huge wars, entire sector going under if no bail out, shortage of oil).
 
These are valid points. Though I don't expect this to happen with Tesla, I am old enough to remember AAPL trading at ~10 PE, ( probably after adjusting for cash on balance sheet) with gangbusters growth. Might have been right after jobs, but can't remember exactly.

Of course they got rid of a lot of that cash by buying back shares, and look at where they trade these days.

So that's roughly is a lower bound for me on how irrational markets can get.
Apple's growth has been very nice and steady, but I'd hardly say "gangbusters" or explosive. Apple's TTM EPS in 2012 was around $1.50. In 2019, it was just below $3 EPS. That's 100% TTM growth over a 7 year period. It has gone gangbusters since........but Apple's P/E went up as well. Meanwhile, Tesla's TTM EPS was negative $3 EPS in 2018 and is positive $3 EPS now on TTM basis. That's gangbusters growth.
 
After the financial crisis, Apple seems to be trading at 10-15 PE even with YOY growth above 50% from 2009-2011. So this is what a bear market can look like. Apple's PE normally are not above 30 looking between 2006-2022. Out of those 16 years, it spent 3 years with a PE over 30, and 10+ years with a PE under 20. Operating margins were above 25% during most of this time period.

So if we do go into a bear market, then I wouldn't be surprised Tsla can have its sp cut in half even with over 50% growth. However the chance of a bear market is around 15%ish historically as 85% of the run down are corrections and major bear markets usually happen with a pretty big gigantic events(huge wars, entire sector going under if no bail out, shortage of oil).
The vast majority of those 10+ years of a PE under 20 is when growth slowed way down. If you take the average between 2012 and 2019, growth was in the low teens for Apple. Still good growth, but nothing like Tesla has been doing or will be doing in the coming years.
 
The vast majority of those 10+ years of a PE under 20 is when growth slowed way down. If you take the average between 2012 and 2019, growth was in the low teens for Apple. Still good growth, but nothing like Tesla has been doing or will be doing in the coming years.
Well their PE was at their lowest when their yoy growth was at their highest. In a high unemployment era post financial crisis, people were not exactly assigning high PEs to stocks even with crazy growth, and that growth was sustained for 2 years before dropping.
 
Well their PE was at their lowest when their yoy growth was at their highest. In a high unemployment era post financial crisis, people were not exactly assigning high PEs to stocks even with crazy growth, and that growth was sustained for 2 years before dropping.
Yes.......during a once in a decade type event which was the financial/housing crisis.........unless you believe we're in once in a decade event right now, then it's not a valid comparison.

I remember that time period and there was a lot of question about how sustainable Apple's growth was going to be after that initial 1-2 year high growth spurt. And in a lot of ways, those questions were valid because Apple's growth did slow a ton.
 
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