Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

As I’ve stated before in this thread, historically oil and ICE vehicles have made up a large percentage of the us trade deficit (before fracking, it was over half of it).

Oil and ICE are huge subtractors to the US economy. The US net imports about 30% of its ICE vehicles. The Us is a net exporter right now of EVs thanks to Tesla.

Your comment illustrates a point I have made before, namely that this change will not be a benefit for all countries.

So - obviously oil (and gas) exporters will see huge economic negatives from reduced fuel sales.

But also - what we are seeing is that the shift to BEV in the manner that Tesla are doing it is driving the manufacturing ecosystem to a very different structure. Previously a typical automotive plant made about 250k vehicles/year, with the larger ones being at about 500k/yr being the ones that were the pacesetters, and the global outliers being a few plants of >1m/yr. Plus of course lots of outsourcing to tier 1s. What that meant was that even relatively small countries could have a bit of auto-manufacturing (even if not an assy plant) and as a consequence the overall balance-of-payments of many countries was tolerable.

Now Tesla are already showing that their minimum scale is 500k/yr and personally I expect Shanghai, Berlin, and Austin to be at 2m/yr fairly soon. And in a highly vertically integrated manner. In a way that the competitor BEV companies will have to mimic if they are to be competitive. Ultimately I expect Tesla to aim for 4m/yr, but let's just use 2m/yr per plant as a thought-experiment. If the previous typical plant was 250k and the new typical is 1m (and previous pace-setter was 500k and new pacesetter is 2m) then there will be only a quarter as many factories in the new world vs the old world.

So (for example) countries like Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Austria will probably not have even one auto factory. Places like UK would slim down from ~6 to 1 if they are lucky. Places like Canada would slim down from ~12 to 3. Winner-takes-all consequences will result in severe balance-of-payments stresses for losers. If you cast your mind back to the run-in to WW1 beggar-my-neighbour economic policies were one of the big stressors in the system. Such stressors will return in spades.

The same issue takes place at a personal human level as the new factories are becoming increasingly productive in terms of employees/car/year. So overall far fewer factories employing fewer people.

Economic inequalities naturally increase both between and within countries in such a scenario.

There will be a heck of a lot of stresses in that.

 

[ZeApelido]

Soon no one is going to take the word “recall” seriously.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489193031983112192

 

[Singuy]

Soon no one is going to take the word “recall” seriously.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489193031983112192

People already don't. My dad is still driving a car with a grenade airbag. Multiple attempts to get it swapped but was never in stock.

 

[Singuy]

Okay all eyes on qqq, FB news is the perfect opportunity to battle the qqq at 360 again. Depending on the day, this level will most likely break and we will see support at 352 which should be the bounce off point to establish the higher low. So far this is all part of the plan. As for Tesla, if qqq breaks then Tesla will fill that small gap at 859 as all ev stocks are under pressure. This has nothing to do with the recall or whatever. Still part of the plan.

 

[Atomsla]

Okay all eyes on qqq, FB news is the perfect opportunity to battle the qqq at 360 again. Depending on the day, this level will most likely break and we will see support at 352 which should be the bounce off point to establish the higher low. So far this is all part of the plan. As for Tesla, if qqq breaks then Tesla will fill that small gap at 859 as all ev stocks are under pressure. This has nothing to do with the recall or whatever. Still part of the plan.

Not part of my plan.

 

[nativewolf]

I know that many of you think robotaxis aren't happening anytime soon but Elon does. Elon doesn't care about whether TMC dudes want V2G enabled on their driveways. He has climate change to solve. That means most of the fleet being RTs and hooked up to Superchargers for charging / V2G for much of the day and crucially night when solar is off. The benefits are overwhelming - it would be a tragedy to do anything else.

V2H does not work. Homeowners won't want RTs constantly in and out to charge/discharge/pickup customers and they won't allow deep discharges in case of a possible power outage. Also Elon has said get a power wall.

V2G in a robotaxi world

Not being argumentative but I simply don't understand the logic. Could you expand?

Several posters are saying they would like V2G or V2H, Ford just announced this with Sunrun. So demand or the perception of demand exists and I view those as the same things to some extent (at least early on). Why do you say V2H does not work? I personally am in favor of robotaxi as a concept. However, I'd never let my own vehicle be used. My truck is full of tools, my wife's car is full of golf stuff. I think most American family with kids are in the same boat (maybe we are just messy?), the car is just an extension of the house rather than some sterile thing.

V2H buyers proponents state they would love a battery backup in the rare event the power goes out. Not a frequent issue but a rare backup sort of ability would add utility and value. The likelihood that it gets cycled more than a couple of times a year is low so it does not really factor into degradation. Rather it is optionality at the expense of a bit more power electronics. Ford and Sunruns solution seems to be home run to me.

Ford, Sunrun to backup solar homes with the electric F-150

With Ford Intelligent Backup Power and the Home Integration System, F-150 Lightning will automatically kick in to power the home if the grid goes down, while also giving customers the freedom to charge their truck or power their home using their residential solar installation.

pv-magazine-usa.com

I posted that in a different forum section on energy sector news that is a very nice part of the forum.

In summary my view on why it is logical is that I feel that most vehicles of couples with children are multifunctional extensions of the self/home to such an extent that precludes use as robotaxi. In such circumstances though I believe that the additional value of a V2H solution is very high indeed.

So, I am curious why you feel V2H does not work?

 

[lafrisbee]

My pregnant wife has been sleeping on the couch next to me for the past 2 hours since I got home. I've cooked all of diner and asked her to get the pasta in the water (Easy way to get her up and moving!). But no, she asks me "When are we getting a Teslabot?". I think there is market potential here...

Why? Does she want to be replaced? or replace YOU!

 

[Unpilot]

I'm getting a little tired of these "buying" opportunities.

 

[elasalle]

Okay all eyes on qqq, FB news is the perfect opportunity to battle the qqq at 360 again. Depending on the day, this level will most likely break and we will see support at 352 which should be the bounce off point to establish the higher low. So far this is all part of the plan. As for Tesla, if qqq breaks then Tesla will fill that small gap at 859 as all ev stocks are under pressure. This has nothing to do with the recall or whatever. Still part of the plan.

jobless claims came in better than expected, Treasury spiked ... inflation woes still playing out ...

 

[EVDRVN]

You can’t draw enough power from that to be very useful. The Tesla 12V bus is pretty weak.

People do this right now it wouldn’t be a solution I would use but in a pinch it will work to run critical devices. The 12 V battery has nothing to do with it as the DC DC will be running, clearly you would not leave the car off. There are plenty of people that have done this although I don’t recommend it, it’s better than trying to put your car up on rollers and generate power

 

[Singuy]

jobless claims came in better than expected, Treasury spiked ... inflation woes still playing out ...

Don't think it matters. I am pretty convinced this is just a very solid correction. Market have never crashed when fed interest rates are at zero with close to full employment. There needs to be some dramatic event that can spike unemployment.

As for bubble arkk stocks, most have crashed already to close to pre pandemic levels

 

[growler23]

Haven’t had true highway “phantom braking” in a long time. Older 3 and recent Y. Switch to vision only has been successful for us.

2021 Vision Model Y here. Phantom braking greatly reduced for me with recent updates but is still happening. I don't have FSD but the traffic-aware cruise control has still not earned my trust with traffic around. I would call it "improved" but I cannot yet say "resolved".

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Don't think it matters. I am pretty convinced this is just a very solid correction. Market have never crashed when fed interest rates are at zero with close to full employment. There needs to be some dramatic event that can spike unemployment.

As for bubble arkk stocks, most have crashed already to close to pre pandemic levels

And earnings. Let's not forget that tiny factor. TSLA and QQQ free cash flow and earnings are growing like crazy.

You'd think historical outperformance by the NASDAQ vs DOw would need to come back to earth, but looking at earnings....it doesn't. Google and Apple are just making all the money. Tesla is now joining the party.

I'll stop repeating myself after this, but it's hard to see any of this as anying other than hedge funds wanting to buy at least certain QQQ players at a discount. I guess you could call it a separation of winners and losers, buy frankly I think they'll end up just buying all of QQQ because nobody can pick winners.

 

[EVDRVN]

I still find it silly the Tesla didn’t Include or offer this as an option in the back of all new cars. I’m actually shocked it was not an option in the Y and I thought it would be by now. The DC lines are right there and the cost to build even a 1200 W unit would be obiut $50 or less. They could easily charge $500 for this as an option which would be very practical for many uses. It’s already offered as a plug adapter to the charges port in other evs. A scaled down version of the CT model at 120v only would be a hit even at 500 watts.

 

[H Mak]

I'm getting a little tired of these "buying" opportunities.

Look at it this way, as Tesla shareholders we never sell, so buying is the only opportunity we get for a bit of excitement

 

[elasalle]

some TX support

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489101680268435456

 

[cusetownusa]

Not being argumentative but I simply don't understand the logic. Could you expand?

Several posters are saying they would like V2G or V2H, Ford just announced this with Sunrun. So demand or the perception of demand exists and I view those as the same things to some extent (at least early on). Why do you say V2H does not work? I personally am in favor of robotaxi as a concept. However, I'd never let my own vehicle be used. My truck is full of tools, my wife's car is full of golf stuff. I think most American family with kids are in the same boat (maybe we are just messy?), the car is just an extension of the house rather than some sterile thing.

V2H buyers proponents state they would love a battery backup in the rare event the power goes out. Not a frequent issue but a rare backup sort of ability would add utility and value. The likelihood that it gets cycled more than a couple of times a year is low so it does not really factor into degradation. Rather it is optionality at the expense of a bit more power electronics. Ford and Sunruns solution seems to be home run to me.

Ford, Sunrun to backup solar homes with the electric F-150

With Ford Intelligent Backup Power and the Home Integration System, F-150 Lightning will automatically kick in to power the home if the grid goes down, while also giving customers the freedom to charge their truck or power their home using their residential solar installation.

pv-magazine-usa.com

I posted that in a different forum section on energy sector news that is a very nice part of the forum.

In summary my view on why it is logical is that I feel that most vehicles of couples with children are multifunctional extensions of the self/home to such an extent that precludes use as robotaxi. In such circumstances though I believe that the additional value of a V2H solution is very high indeed.

So, I am curious why you feel V2H does not work?

I agree...I am not familiar enough with the technology to know how feasible V2H (not V2G) is, but if it is possible I would pay thousands extra for this feature. We lose power maybe once or twice a year for up to 4 hours or so. Being able to keep the house warm, take warm showers, fridge cold, lights on, etc. would be priceless.

Also, I guarantee I would be able to sell at least 2 Tesla cars to my neighbors every time we lose power for more than a couple of hours. Once they see our lights on and not freezing they will be walking over with drinks wondering how we are doing it without a gas generator.

 

[nativewolf]

I still find it silly the Tesla didn’t Include or offer this as an option in the back of all new cars. I’m actually shocked it was not an option in the Y and I thought it would be by now. The DC lines are right there and the cost to build even a 1200 W unit would be obiut $50 or less. They could easily charge $500 for this as an option which would be very practical for many uses. It’s already offered as a plug adapter to the charges port in other evs. A scaled down version of the CT model at 120v only would be a hit even at 500 watts.

If Ford gets this to market before Tesla....hmmm....well I guess it is good for the mission at large. It would mean that the leadership at Ford has really changed tacks and would indicate that they are potentially a competitor. To date, I haven't actually seen any OEMs as realistic competitors to Tesla. Tesla has just driven so hard and fast that it has astounded. VW talks a lot but in reality I haven't seen great execution and Diess seems forever at risk of getting fired. This abrupt turning of Ford is the second most interesting thing to happen in the EV space. Second by a long shot so far but at least there appears to be a second.

 

[elasalle]

I still find it silly the Tesla didn’t Include or offer this as an option in the back of all new cars. I’m actually shocked it was not an option in the Y and I thought it would be by now. The DC lines are right there and the cost to build even a 1200 W unit would be obiut $50 or less. They could easily charge $500 for this as an option which would be very practical for many uses. It’s already offered as a plug adapter to the charges port in other evs. A scaled down version of the CT model at 120v only would be a hit even at 500 watts.

to keep up/out-do Tesla competition is gonna promise anything and everything without actually looking at problem via 1st principles/cost/benifits.

But when whole house burns down, the whole program will close in a hurry


(lately, it seems Tesla is not sharing everything they are doing internally. Announcing V2G will cause an osbourne effect, so best to keep it that way). Cheers!!

 

[ABC2D]

Wow, TSLA shows incredible strength this morning