Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

I agree...I am not familiar enough with the technology to know how feasible V2H (not V2G) is, but if it is possible I would pay thousands extra for this feature. We lose power maybe once or twice a year for up to 4 hours or so. Being able to keep the house warm, take warm showers, fridge cold, lights on, etc. would be priceless.

Also, I guarantee I would be able to sell at least 2 Tesla cars to my neighbors every time we lose power for more than a couple of hours. Once they see our lights on and not freezing they will be walking over with drinks wondering how we are doing it without a gas generator.

Right, that's how I feel and part of the attraction of our farm was the whole house generator and a 500 gallon propane tank- we can go a month with no power. If Ford gets this to market before they can sell the cars to take advantage of it Tesla can easily engineer a competing and probably better solution. However, it is interesting that Ford may get it to market before Tesla. They also partnered with Sunrun a natural competitor to Tesla solar. Also interesting. Tesla could be in the boat of being able to watch uptake by Ford Lightening buyers and then react and offer a solution before Ford can truly scale the Lightening. Still...Ford? Sort of shocking...Ford? The board at Ford should be commended, it looks like they are going to eat their own and change course. I wonder if they mortgaged the company (like they did in 2007) to raise funds for the EV transition?

 

[Unpilot]

to keep up/out-do Tesla competition is gonna promise anything and everything without actually looking at problem via 1st principles/cost/benifits.

But when whole house burns down, the whole program will close in a hurry


(lately, it seems Tesla is not sharing everything they are doing internally. Announcing V2G will cause an osbourne effect, so best to keep it that way). Cheers!!

Big problem if any fires happen and it's a Tesla.
Not so much if it's any other brand.

 

[elasalle]

Big problem if any fires happen and it's a Tesla.
Not so much if it's any other brand.

not anymore
per Elon, fire news is no longer big event, because competition is in the game now . cheers!!

 

[nativewolf]

Big problem if any fires happen and it's a Tesla.
Not so much if it's any other brand.

Is the risk of a fire larger with a V2H solution than a powerwall? I don't know, why I am asking.

 

[nativewolf]

not anymore
per Elon, fire news is no longer big event, because competition is in the game now . cheers!!

true and thank goodness

 

[Unpilot]

Is the risk of a fire larger with a V2H solution than a powerwall? I don't know, why I am asking.

I don't know either...I do know any issue that involves Tesla would be front pages news.

 

[hiroshiy]

There's a reason Tesla management has a dim view of VTG. It's because Tesla management uses first-principles thinking like a guided laser to arrive at the truth of things better than most people can in their wildest dreams. Tesla's success is a direct result of thinking about thousands of things correctly and avoiding the temptation to use fuzzy thinking to arrive at non-optimal solutions

Sure, VTG might seem like a great thing to one with less ability to fully parse the necessary considerations, but that doesn't mean that person is thinking more clearly than Tesla management or that they have more information at their disposal than Tesla management or that Tesla management has a conflict of interest that leads to a non-optimal position. In a nutshell, here's why widespread VTG does not make sense:

An EV's battery must be sized taking all relevant considerations into account. Too big and the owner is wasting money on seldom used capacity while packing around excessive weight that reduces the efficiency of the vehicle and wears the tires unnecessarily quickly.

There are two primary use cases for VTG; (1) Emergency energy storage of each EV to draw upon in the event of power failure and (2) The collective storage of all EV's in a region to buffer grid demand and reduce the need for peaker plants. The least desirable place to put batteries for emergencies is in a vehicle that has an indeterminate location. If the EV's battery is sized properly for daily needs then by the time you get home and find your power is out, there is precious little storage available to use as backup power, especially if you don't want to disable the remaining functionality of your car during a power outage of indeterminate length that prevents you from re-charging it. For the reasons already given, it would be silly to oversize the vehicle battery to achieve a certain kWh buffer of capacity that you normally wouldn't have purchased, just for emergency needs. That money should be put into batteries purchased for that purpose that don't have to be lugged around everywhere you go and that are always available for use when the need arises.

VTG for buffering grid demand. This use case is no more compelling to the individual car buyer than the scenario for emergency storage because the primary benefit to the car owner is simply a small arbitrage on the price electricity. Any energy used for grid storage is not available for range. Therefore, the battery must be sized larger than optimal for transportation alone. If the arbitrage profit makes it worthwhile to pay for more batteries than you need for transport alone, then it makes sense to buy those batteries, using a loan if necessary, and mount them in a stationary location, not lug them around with you wherever you go.

In both of these use cases the common principle is that the car battery should be sized for transportation, not stationary storage. If either of these use cases appear to make sense, they should also make sense with stand-alone storage batteries. You are paying for that capacity in both dollars and weight when it's installed in the car. It's fuzzy incorrect thinking to say, "Yes, but I already have the battery, I might as well make it do double duty." That's because there is not a good correlation between when you have a power outage and when you have lower transportation needs. Nor is there a good correlation, for most people, between when the grid needs storage capacity and when you have reduced transport needs.

In short, don't drive around with your unneeded battery capacity. It wastes tire life, reduces handling, increases the cost of the car and reduces driving efficiency. It also puts a more expensive battery at risk in the event of an accident and doesn't ensure the extra capacity is available when it's needed.

Batteries are of great benefit to any grid system, but they should be sized for the use case, located where needed, and reliably available.

I completely agree that V2G for distributed grid storage doesn't make sense for consumers. However, I still think VTG has some value proposition for the consumers, long term, in emergency backup and "use solar at night" use case.

These VTG cases are very similar to Power Wall use cases. Some people want backup power in electricity blackouts. Some people like to save excess solar for night use.

Why don't you add more battery capacity to your car to cover these cases? If you have a bigger battery on your vehicle, you have a higher chance to use that extra 10kWh to back up home. If your car stays at home for most of the daytime, you may want to charge your car during the day and use some at night for cooking or air conditioning.

I agree that battery sizing is the most logical choice for EV owners. But if you need extra capacity, you have an option of adding to your home or your vehicle (=VTG). As a bonus, if you have spare capacity, you can drive further without charging

 

[Singuy]

Wow, TSLA shows incredible strength this morning

Not really. It's pretty expected to rally up to resistance of 900 as qqq rallys to 360. We need to break these levels to show strength which haven't happen yet.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Right, that's how I feel and part of the attraction of our farm was the whole house generator and a 500 gallon propane tank- we can go a month with no power. If Ford gets this to market before they can sell the cars to take advantage of it Tesla can easily engineer a competing and probably better solution. However, it is interesting that Ford may get it to market before Tesla. They also partnered with Sunrun a natural competitor to Tesla solar. Also interesting. Tesla could be in the boat of being able to watch uptake by Ford Lightening buyers and then react and offer a solution before Ford can truly scale the Lightening. Still...Ford? Sort of shocking...Ford? The board at Ford should be commended, it looks like they are going to eat their own and change course. I wonder if they mortgaged the company (like they did in 2007) to raise funds for the EV transition?

If you're worried about Ford and Sunrun somehow executing on a product package better than Tesla, you're legit crazy. Those are basically two sales & marketing firms.

A) Neither has the expertise to properly develop or roll out these solutions effectively.
B) Both have 20% customer acquisition overhead and have little chance to survive in the first place. Even if they were capable of engineering and executing.

This doesn't have much to do with TSLA investment, can we take it to another thread/forum?

 

[Atomsla]

Speaking for my country, there is alot of talk about the power grid not being able to support the amount of solar being installed. Grid managers call for a home battery subsidy to avoid or at least delay massive grid upgrades they dont have the capacity to do in a reasonable time span. I'm sure this goes for lots of other countries as well. V2G gets mentioned frequently as a partial solution because of its ability to smooth peak demand. Vehicle owners would receive compensation for the use of their batteries. With car batteries being much larger than power walls, You'd only need a couple of cars 'at home' to have a sizable neighborhood battery cobbled together. The idea here isn't that you plug your car in and find it with a lower SoC the next day. You'd find it slightly less charged than it otherwise would be, and I'm sure the software will be able to let you set the range you will be needing at minimum the next day.
It doesn't sound like a silly technology to add to BEV's at all to me, when looked at from a block of houses at a time.

 

[ZachF]

I think a lot of people have perceived Facebook as a necessary evil. Not that it turns out it’s not that necessary, all that’s left is the evil.

Line of the day here.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Speaking for my country, there is alot of talk about the power grid not being able to support the amount of solar being installed. Grid managers call for a home battery subsidy to avoid or at least delay massive grid upgrades they dont have the capacity to do in a reasonable time span. I'm sure this goes for lots of other countries as well. V2G gets mentioned frequently as a partial solution because of its ability to smooth peak demand. Vehicle owners would receive compensation for the use of their batteries. With car batteries being much larger than power walls, You'd only need a couple of cars 'at home' to have a sizable neighborhood battery cobbled together. The idea here isn't that you plug your car in and find it with a lower SoC the next day. You'd find it slightly less charged than it otherwise would be, and I'm sure the software will be able to let you set the range you will be needing at minimum the next day.
It doesn't sound like a silly technology to add to BEV's at all to me, when looked at from a block of houses at a time.

Tesla EVs will play a huge role in your smart grid moving forward, it just won't be in the direction everyone seems to think The problem with solar isn't the drop during cloud cover, it's the extreme supply when it's sunny. EVs will soak up all that excess "surprise" supply throughout the day and help your grid maintain balance.

People will keep their EVs plugged in and a highly variable electricity rate will incentivize them to provide this service of soaking up supply. Home batteries like the Tesla Powerwall and grid level like the Megapack will handle the other direction.

 

[Unpilot]

Shhhh...

 

[OrthoSurg]

Facebook -23%
TSLA +1%

Finally the world order has been restored. That’s a world I am proud to live in.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Shhhh...

I just paid to move my damn 1000/900 BPS to May and now this. So pissed.

 

[canoemore]

Abbott and Rogan are dbags, but so what? Elon's helping us move to reality where there are no teams. It's gonna be much better.

There are always teams, unfortunately.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I just paid to move my damn 1000/900 BPS to May and now this. So pissed.

I waited, because you know… the stock always do the opposite of what you expect. That’s my new motto

 

[Nocturnal]

FUD machine is working overtime today. Yikes.

 

[Unpilot]

FUD machine is working overtime today. Yikes.

Not having the desired effect though.

 

[Cattledog]

some TX support

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489101680268435456

Wouldn't it be something if this wasn't just a lunch visit but actually was part of discussions about direct sales - I think the market would like that news. One can dream on an icy day in Texas...