Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Tesla EVs will play a huge role in your smart grid moving forward, it just won't be in the direction everyone seems to think The problem with solar isn't the drop during cloud cover, it's the extreme supply when it's sunny. EVs will soak up all that excess "surprise" supply throughout the day and help your grid maintain balance.

People will keep their EVs plugged in and a highly variable electricity rate will incentivize them to provide this service of soaking up supply. Home batteries like the Tesla Powerwall and grid level like the Megapack will handle the other direction.

Once solar eats everything we are going to have to figure out what to do with our seasonal surplus energy. IMHO the best thing would be a “water grid” that desalinates and pumps water around the country, with an uphill bias towards the mountains in summer and a downhill bias towards winter.

 

[82bert]

2021 Vision Model Y here. Phantom braking greatly reduced for me with recent updates but is still happening. I don't have FSD but the traffic-aware cruise control has still not earned my trust with traffic around. I would call it "improved" but I cannot yet say "resolved".

I do have FSD beta on both vehicles. Not sure if that matters, but maybe? The only time unwanted slowing occurs is when there is a mapping issue (so NOT a vision issue). For example, I’m in 3rd lane from the fast leftmost lane and the vehicle thinks the 4th lane (slow lane) is ending and there is a vehicle in it. It slows to allow them in when it doesn’t need to. I know when to expect this where I live. A lot of recent construction. But this is not phantom braking.

 

[Unpilot]

I see a slippery slope ahead.....

 

[Atomsla]

FUD machine is working overtime today. Yikes.

You made me look at some news articles, which I hadn't done in a while, and now I'm angry at the media again. Thanks a lot .

 

[EVDRVN]

Tesla EVs will play a huge role in your smart grid moving forward, it just won't be in the direction everyone seems to think The problem with solar isn't the drop during cloud cover, it's the extreme supply when it's sunny. EVs will soak up all that excess "surprise" supply throughout the day and help your grid maintain balance.

People will keep their EVs plugged in and a highly variable electricity rate will incentivize them to provide this service of soaking up supply. Home batteries like the Tesla Powerwall and grid level like the Megapack will handle the other direction.

Yeah can’t wait to see the look on PG&E’s face when all of their surplus power goes to daytime EV charging.

 

[Beltsbear]

Once solar eats everything we are going to have to figure out what to do with our seasonal surplus energy. IMHO the best thing would be a “water grid” that desalinates and pumps water around the country, with an uphill bias towards the mountains in summer and a downhill bias towards winter.

While that may work in some places, Tesla style power systems using iron batteries will prove to be cheaper and more efficient. The lifetime may be towards 30 years or more with high recyclability after that. Once the cost per watt drops enough, the trend will accelerate.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

FYI: Tesla just updated their Official Supercharger map with upcoming locations. Yup, they are still expanding!

 

[Knightshade]

Wouldn't it be something if this wasn't just a lunch visit but actually was part of discussions about direct sales - I think the market would like that news. One can dream on an icy day in Texas...

Not sure what the discussion would be. This change requires action by the state legislature, which doesn't meet again until Jan 10, 2023

 

[Cherry Wine]

Not sure what the discussion would be. This change requires action by the state legislature, which doesn't meet again until Jan 10, 2023

It’s also an old photo.

 

[Paul_SF]

Not sure what the discussion would be. This change requires action by the state legislature, which doesn't meet again until Jan 10, 2023

Can’t Abbot do an executive order? I believe it’s in his power to issue executive orders.

 

[viridi]

Max pain currently $920. Surprise, surprise, surprise, they are trying to keep TSLA below $920 this morning through their usual tactics. Do not get me wrong, I am not complaining about an up day during a very challenging macro day. But, still . . ..

 

[SOULPEDL]

Speaking for my country, there is alot of talk about the power grid not being able to support the amount of solar being installed. Grid managers call for a home battery subsidy to avoid or at least delay massive grid upgrades they dont have the capacity to do in a reasonable time span. I'm sure this goes for lots of other countries as well. V2G gets mentioned frequently as a partial solution because of its ability to smooth peak demand. Vehicle owners would receive compensation for the use of their batteries. With car batteries being much larger than power walls, You'd only need a couple of cars 'at home' to have a sizable neighborhood battery cobbled together. The idea here isn't that you plug your car in and find it with a lower SoC the next day. You'd find it slightly less charged than it otherwise would be, and I'm sure the software will be able to let you set the range you will be needing at minimum the next day.
It doesn't sound like a silly technology to add to BEV's at all to me, when looked at from a block of houses at a time.

SRP (power utility in Az) is pushing for construction of about a dozen more gas power peaker plants in Coolidge Az (cuz who else would put up with more smoke stacks already in place, it's a impoverished town). Gas is still too cheap for SRP to buy MegaPacks or more solar. Make no mistake, these new plants are for hottest summer days - solar could cover this growing need in Phoenix (where there's little water anyway).

SRP also paid for half of my first Powerwall 2yr ago as a $3,600 cash rebate. But I think this was only as a result of settling in court with Tesla. So, not nearly enough powerwalls to cover it simply because solar is still expensive (which is because we only get pennies/kWh as set by what it costs SRP to fire up the smoke stacks instead. I conclude the only motivation to help the grid is either new money or new law (Edit: or cheaper solar etc).

Old news but let's revisit V2G or V2H bc I think Elon goofed up (or is coy). Consider the fact the the owners of Roadsters were probably the wealthiest around so one has to question their needs or lifestyles. It was the wrong test market study IMO... fire away!

"Musk’s comments during Battery Day also suggest that the company doesn’t think its customers are hungry enough for vehicle-to-grid capabilities yet. “Very few people would actually use vehicle-to-grid,” Musk said during Battery Day. “We actually had that with the original Roadster. We had vehicle-to-grid capabilities — nobody used it.”

Heck, I own 2 powerwalls and still find opportunities to use the vehicle for power. No I think he did it for vehicle warranty reasons (there's only so many cycles in a battery). Bring in the Million Mile battery, whole new story! I bet it returns with 4680.

 

[jerry33]

Can’t Abbot do an executive order? I believe it’s in his power to issue executive orders.

He could, but there's a snowball's chance of him doing so. He's in too deep with the Dealer Association and big oil

 

[StealthP3D]

I waited, because you know… the stock always do the opposite of what you expect. That’s my new motto

I've made big profits over the years by taking a contrarian point of view more often than not. That said, the huge profits came from time in the markets (vs. dipping in and out) and picking the right horses to ride for the long-term.

It's not really possible to fully separate those two things (contrarian vs. time in the markets) because I often used my contrarian instincts to stay invested during sudden drops when everyone was talking about recessions, bear markets and how long in the tooth various bull markets were.

My point is simply that the contrarian viewpoint is most useful when the negativity is thick in the air. The kind of negativity that should perk your ears up is the kind that you can feel on your own without it being stuck in your face. And because it's impossible to time the markets consistently with any degree of accuracy, this should only be applied to negative fundamental, long-term develops within the sphere of a specific company or industry. Trying to time the market moods and bear markets is dumb and yet much of the financial media coverage implies that this is the most important thing. They do this by always focusing on the health of the economy (which would be fine if people had a good record of timing the bull and bear markets but they don't).

 

[Knightshade]

Can’t Abbot do an executive order? I believe it’s in his power to issue executive orders.

I don't think he can?

Issuing an EO to cover something the law doesn't address is one thing.

You can't just issue EOs saying "It's ok to ignore the actual law banning direct vehicle sales without needing to change the law"

 

[elasalle]

I just paid to move my damn 1000/900 BPS to May and now this. So pissed.

Feb 18 1K calls (lotto) yesterday up 120% +
today morning - break even, down a few points
closed at 80% profit on the way up.

Done with these short term plays until there is a clear market trend .... topsy, turvy market is creating too much of a guessing game ... & I ain't no day trader

 

[Paul_SF]

He could, but there's a snowball's chance of him doing so. He's in too deep with the Dealer Association and big oil

And his tweet would make some believe now he’s deep with Tesla?

I do believe he will issue an executive order, soon.

“And now, Tesla’s headquarters are in Texas too.“ Gov Abbott

 

[SmokyPeat]

While that may work in some places, Tesla style power systems using iron batteries will prove to be cheaper and more efficient. The lifetime may be towards 30 years or more with high recyclability after that. Once the cost per watt drops enough, the trend will accelerate.

Fresh water has lots of uses besides pumped storage. Recharging depleted aquafers comes to mind. I think desalination projects will become increasingly important as the climate warms.

 

[betstarship]

Has this been shared yet? Reading through it and ... wow.

ARK Invest Big Ideas 2022 — Innovation Research

research.ark-invest.com

 

[larmor]

I don't think he can?

Issuing an EO to cover something the law doesn't address is one thing.

You can't just issue EOs saying "It's ok to ignore the actual law banning direct vehicle sales without needing to change the law"

But Tesla showrooms remains open on Sunday, and dealers cannot be open or sell cars on Sundays in Texas.