Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Hadn’t really thought about it, but the windfall from Rivian was so big, is it possible the correction is big enough to actually cause Ford to post a loss for Q1? That would be truly oddball.

I wonder how quickly these guys are going to divest. They can’t move too fast or it’ll tank the whole thing.

Imma ask for advice on this, but I think the way U.S. GAAP accounting rules are set up, they only have to book a loss to the value of their Rivian holdings if they sell shares in Q1.

Ergo, if Rivian is lower on Mar 31, 2022 than in was on Dec 31, 2021 then Amazon simply won't sell any Rivian shares, so the Amazon book value is unaffected.

AFAIK, Amazon did sell about 2% of their RIVN at the end of 2021Q4, which is what enabled them to revalue ALL of their RIVN assets on their books (sneaky, huh? that's why I'n not an accountant).

This is a distinctly DIFFERENT accounting treatment to the holdings of BITCOIN which must be rerated down if the price goes below Tesla's book value ant any point in the quarter (whether or not they sell any), but can only be rerated higher if they sell some.

GAAP humor.

Amazon will be fine, as long as RIVN doesn't fail long term, which I believe is unlikely since Amazon is their single largest customer. RIVN is like a mitochondria, captured and busy working away to power it's host cell.

But I don't expect Rivian to sell commercially significant numbers of vehicles to 3rd parties any time soon because of this dynamic.. That at least is good for Tesla.

Paging @st_lopes for the accounting treatment.

Cheers!

 

[Chenkers]

Tesla Australia admits its sales figures were wrong

A day after releasing incorrect data that showed the Tesla Model 3 was Australia's best-selling mid-size sedan – claiming to topple the Toyota Camry – the electric-car lobby group has admitted its numbers were wrong.

www.drive.com.au

“Due to a human error, the Tesla delivery figures for 2020 were erroneously added to the delivery figures for 2021 by Tesla before the figure was provided to the Electric Vehicle Council".
That explains the discrepancy of 3000 vehicles, nothing major. Tesla provided the numbers to the EVC. Now, whether the EVC framed the request wrong or if someone in Tesla misunderstood the request, its unclear. But ultimately, there is nothing here for the conspiracy theorists.

@Budding has pointed out the main reason for the discrepancy.

For some background vehicle delivery numbers in Australia are officially reported through the peak auto lobby group the FCAI. Tesla isn't a full member of the FCAI because they don't want to pay the fees etc, so Tesla's delivery numbers aren't included. This has caused massive under-reporting of EV delivery numbers in Australia since Tesla is 2/3 of the EV market. To overcome this the EV Council (lobby group) in Australia made a deal with Tesla Australia to officially release their delivery numbers. Unfortunately human error presumably at Tesla saw the 2020 figures added to the 2021 number reported. This all occurred just after a major auto website added up all the Tesla registrations and there was about a 3000 car discrepancy with Tesla's numbers. The error was picked up when the EV council queried Tesla.

A bit embarrassing but it shouldn't take away from the truly extraordinary number of deliveries by Tesla in 2021. We'll just have to wait till next year for the Model 3 to knock off the Toyota Camry as the best selling sedan in the country.

 

[Artful Dodger]

FB "Meta Platforms Inc." has fallen to No. 9 in the S&P 500 rankings:

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Amazon will be fine, as long as RIVN doesn't fail, which I believe is unlikely since Amazon is their single largest customer. It's like a mitochondria, captured and busy working away to power it's host. But I don't expect Rivian to sell commercially significant numbers of vehicles to 3rd parties any time soon because of this dynamic.

Think about this.....CNBC just went through the capex figures for AMZN 4Q. $60B. Billion. In a quarter.

When Amazon decides to shift it's fleet entirely to EV, they simply send Rivian orders that keeps them maxed out til the end of time. And they can "pay" a high amount for them.....because they make it back in SP appreciation!

AMZN is an absolute beast. We shoulda been buying yesterday. Not sure what we were thinking.

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489600779572981762

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

We are in the process of getting an air-source heat pump installed for heating and water.

With the expected savings from gas and more use of electricity it is expected to save us considerable amounts of money, exactly how much depends on energy costs. The calculated cost savings we have been given are based on energy prices last year, and don't include contribution from our solar panels. The recent wholesale fuel price rises have increased electricity, and especially gas prices, with more expected in the coming year.

As we have roof top solar power (4KW system), the savings should be higher for us. In the middle of winter we only get a kWh or so a day, but spring and autumn solar should provide a considerable portion of our heating needs and in spring autumn and summer much of our hot water needs as well.

Payback time without UK government subsidy is less than 20 years, with subsidies it is under 5 years. It should also increase the value of the house, both because it will have lower energy bills and because the energy rating of the house has moved to a 'B' rating, which is good for our size of property, with the current mad state of UK house prices, that value increase could possibly cover the cost of the system.

It will feel good to have got rid of another source of CO2 in our lives.

The scheme is finishing end of March, from what I understand take rate has been low, mostly new builds where the cost of installation is less. The government also require a survey from a qualified engineer to size the system, this cost is about £1000 up front even if you decide not to go ahead with the heat pump install. The way the subsidies work mean that you need about £10,000 - £15,000 to pay for the system, then you get the subsidy over 5 years. This precludes most people from considering this because they don't have that sort of money laying around.

The experience has driven home to me how difficult it will be for the UK to convert over from using gas for domestic heating. At the current rate it would be more than 300 years, even most new builds (about 90% I think) are still being fitted with gas central heating. almost no chance of the UK being net zero CO2 by 2050, or even 2100 due to domestic heating.

Scotland have had a full grant for heat pumps for the past few years, that increases the take up rate. Westminster have been dodging the banning of gas in new builds for the past couple of years. It is an effin disgrace. Still waiting for my Tesla power wall for over a year.

 

[Prunesquallor]

…

For all you investors looking to get in early on something he just closed his seed round. Heavy heavy hitters funded it. Impact capitalism at it's best. If you missed out on SpaceX this might be a great next opportunity.

Very interesting. CO2 fixation with calcite, hydrogen production via 1-atm water electrolysis, methane formation on-site via Sabatier. All dependent on abundant, cheap solar. Headed up by several Caltech/JPL alumni.

Oh, for some dry powder.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

@Budding has pointed out the main reason for the discrepancy.

For some background vehicle delivery numbers in Australia are officially reported through the peak auto lobby group the FCAI. Tesla isn't a full member of the FCAI because they don't want to pay the fees etc, so Tesla's delivery numbers aren't included. This has caused massive under-reporting of EV delivery numbers in Australia since Tesla is 2/3 of the EV market. To overcome this the EV Council (lobby group) in Australia made a deal with Tesla Australia to officially release their delivery numbers. Unfortunately human error presumably at Tesla saw the 2020 figures added to the 2021 number reported. This all occurred just after a major auto website added up all the Tesla registrations and there was about a 3000 car discrepancy with Tesla's numbers. The error was picked up when the EV council queried Tesla.

A bit embarrassing but it shouldn't take away from the truly extraordinary number of deliveries by Tesla in 2021. We'll just have to wait till next year for the Model 3 to knock off the Toyota Camry as the best selling sedan in the country.

This is taking the TSLAQ crowd into foaming at the mouth, hysterical joy tho' See ? TESLA lie, what else have they been lying about ? The number declared by Elon currently on FSDbeta appears to be their other bone they are chewing

 

[Nocturnal]

FSD 10.10 seems really solid so far. It handled snow covered residential streets just fine in terms of lane keeping. Looks like steady progress vs 10.8.

 

[Skryll]

[...] But I don't expect Rivian to sell commercially significant numbers of vehicles to 3rd parties any time soon because of this dynamic.. That at least is good for Tesla.

I disagree, Rivian replacing trucks and suvs is accelerating teslas mission.

 

[viridi]

Lots of pre-market games going on. Sell orders as large as 5,200 shares being used to spoof. At the moment there is a sell order for 1,100 shares at 898.50 that is being put in and pulled to cap the stock.

 

[Discoducky]

Corey thinks we are in a bear trap currently and that SPY and QQQ will be testing higher resistances over the next two weeks or so...YMMV

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lots of pre-market games going on. Sell orders as large as 5,200 shares being used to spoof. At the moment there is a sell order for 1,100 shares at 898.50 that is being put in and pulled to cap the stock.

I think we'll see a LOT of "games" all morning, but reality and margin call concerns will rule the day. Traders can't/won't head into the weekend with the same short positions in tech they had yesterday. Just a guess.

No one finds it interesting that while we slept a giant tech recovery was essentially put on hold by ADP employment numbers that beat or were revised up by maybe 3 or 4 times the largest previous surprise? That's quite a coincidence!

 

[Matias]

could you explain, so... jobs good or jobs bad?

Anyway it’s a conspiracy!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Grid level solar provides economies of scale you don't see with home solar. I believe per KwH, a Megapack is far less expensive than a Powerwall. Homes are rarely designed from the ground up to optimize solar panel placement. Size, solar incidence, potentially shaded due to trees or neighboring structures. And of course they primarily provide power, specifically backup/nighttime power, to only one home. Per dollar spent and per solar panel, I suspect that there is a lot more efficiency in grid level solar, which provides power to all consumers, not just those that can afford the cost of home solar.

This is probably not the thread to discuss, but you are hitting on pet peeves of mine. I don't like solar farms because they take up land for the sole purpose of producing energy. I like roof-top because you've got a structure there anyway so you may as well also purpose it for solar energy. When new houses are getting built, or any building, positioning for, and adding solar panels should be automatic. I'm generally not a regulations guy but if government types are going to be mandating things, all new building with solar is something I could go along with.

Where I live, there are new housing tracks getting built all over the place and none are adding rooftop solar. Total shame in my opinion.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here is the Reuter's article discussing Tesla's Feb 2nd Giga Texas permit application for the proposed "cathode" plant:

Tesla plans to build cathode building at Texas Gigafactory

Tesla Inc on Wednesday applied for a permit to extend its existing Austin-based car factory with a building to produce cathodes for battery manufacturing, according to city filings and a spokeswoman.

www.reuters.com

Tesla has YEARS if not a decade of runway for produciton expansion in Texas. There will be a rolling barrage of BEVs, hopefully enough to end the reign of ICE-age 1-ton, 1-pax trucks.

Cheers!

 

[phoggy123]

This is probably not the thread to discuss, but you are hitting on pet peeves of mine. I don't like solar farms because they take up land for the sole purpose of producing energy. I like roof-top because you've got a structure there anyway so you may as well also purpose it for solar energy. When new houses are getting built, or any building, positioning for, and adding solar panels should be automatic. I'm generally not a regulations guy but if government types are going to be mandating things, all new building with solar is something I could go along with.

Where I live, there are new housing tracks getting built all over the place and none are adding rooftop solar. Total shame in my opinion.

I am not sure if you have been to west Texas......but there isn't a whole lot going on with their land. K's of square miles of next to nothing in terms of buildings or people. They do have plenty of well heads moving up and down, so the solar panels might detract from that view.

 

[JRP3]

I don't like solar farms because they take up land for the sole purpose of producing energy.

Not necessarily. There are solar farms being integrated with crops which benefit from shade.

 

[Opus BC fan]

If only there were actual data to support the idea that Tesla is a successful company with a bright future.
Then we would see the share price of TSLA go up significantly...

/s

 

[Huskyf]

FSD 10.10 seems really solid so far. It handled snow covered residential streets just fine in terms of lane keeping. Looks like steady progress vs 10.8.

Post a video please