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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Volatility is officially everywhere. FB down 20+%. AMZN. Labor markets now basically measured as +800k jobs including today's surprise +400k and a revision to Dec of +400k.

Could be just the unique nature to this place in time and the measurements being off. Could be the model used to measure. It's just bizarre.

Strange to see all the earnings stuff we saw this week and now 800k jobs magically show up on the books. Not calling conspiracy, I just generally don't believe in coincidence. This is pretty convenient for the Fed.
November revision was +400K, December was “only” +300K
 
FSD 10.10 seems really solid so far. It handled snow covered residential streets just fine in terms of lane keeping. Looks like steady progress vs 10.8.
10.10 has been good for me so far. I almost had a no-intervention drive this morning, but the car wanted to be in the right turn lane when I needed to go straight. Normally my first intervention is half a mile into my commute. Today it was 6.9 miles.
 
Corey thinks we are in a bear trap currently and that SPY and QQQ will be testing higher resistances over the next two weeks or so...YMMV

I started watching this channel every night while reading my TA book. Never thought TA was reliable but the more and more I read on it, and see events unfold and the I see traders are all acting to create a grand self fulfilling prophecy on various TA. Some indicators being 90% reliable like double bottom and some being less reliable but if you have an oversold sector, no fundamental changes to the company, having an ascending triangle after 2 double bottom and a reversal, this looks like a more than 85% probability bet you will make money in the short term. Even better if you are investing for the long term and research value and can place your buys repetitively near the bottom. I find Cory daily analysis really interesting. Will see if his feeling is right and we are heading for a bull market and hitting ATH in the next months.
 
This comes up on occasion - how Congress is in on the trading scam, so thought I'd ask if this is a legit effort. I found it ironic that the letter is to Nancy (and McCarthy) who's name has surfaced here a few times along the lines TSLA investment timing.

If anything, it has some fun facts, so here's the letter. (Mods, hopefully this doesn't get political, I'm just sharing as this very topic keeps surfacing here, and only wondering if it's something we should support further, or just a game as usual.)
 
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For all you investors looking to get in early on something he just closed his seed round. Heavy heavy hitters funded it. Impact capitalism at it's best. If you missed out on SpaceX this might be a great next opportunity.

Pretty early to call this a great next opportunity. The heavy hitters funded a 5 million seed round. A light investing day for "heavy hitters."
A good idea would be to spend the first $ 1K of that on a company web site.

https://terraformindustries.com
 
No, this is what Ralph Nader meant when he told CNBC back in Jan 2020 that "Tesla will be the end of the stock market".

He weren't wrong! (Wall St. hedgies now addicted to the crack cocaine of options manipulation). Too bad ol'Ralphie didn't give a date. I'd like to have a suit pressed for the event... :p

Cheers!

What did he mean by that? "Tesla will be the end of the stock market".🧐
I wondered the same thing when I saw Dodger's message, so I searched and found this article from Feb 2020:
Ralph Nader says SEC should probe Tesla trading based on the stock’s recent spike higher
 
10.10 has been good for me so far. I almost had a no-intervention drive this morning, but the car wanted to be in the right turn lane when I needed to go straight. Normally my first intervention is half a mile into my commute. Today it was 6.9 miles.
Will be interesting to see how it handles in Key West Florida. Have found that FSD really doesnt like Key West. Lots of narrow streets, lots of pedestrians (in various stages of sobriety) with and without dogs walking onto streets, lots of bicycles in streets with no real bike lanes, lots of golf carts and scooters.
 
This comes up on occasion - how Congress is in on the trading scam, so thought I'd ask if this is a legit effort. I found it ironic that the letter is to Nancy (and McCarthy) who's name has surfaced here a few times along the lines TSLA investment timing.

If anything, it has some fun facts, so here's the letter. (Mods, hopefully this doesn't get political, I'm just sharing as this very topic keeps surfacing here, and only wondering if it's something we should support further, or just a game as usual.)
For some reason I thought politicians at a certain level had to have their stock/bond portfolios in a blind trust.
 
This might explain why Tesla went with Longi bifacial panels for the roof of Giga Austin:

The Biden Administration said Friday that it will extend Section 201 tariffs on imported solar cells and panels for another four years, but with several changes to existing provisions.

The tariff rate quota for solar cells will rise from 2.5 gigawatts to 5 gigawatts, and the administration will also uphold the decision to exclude bifacial panels from tariffs.

 
...
Now, regarding power and shifting NG-based heating and cooking to electric. We have finite power generation and transmission facilities. Well, we have finite capacities across all sorts of areas. So, where do we get the most "bang for the buck" in terms of CO2 emissions? By converting home heating from NG to electric? Or by converting personal transportation? We can add more solar power and do both? Well, first solar panel production is resource constrained and only growing so rapidly. And with renewables comes the need for grid-scale energy storage. Build more Megapacks? Sure I like that. Only thing is, that takes batteries. Batteries that are desperately needed to get EVs on the road. Build more Megapacks now and you leave that many more ICE vehicles on the road in the immediate future. Oh, and delay Cybertruck, something I don't want to see happen, both as an investor and as someone that wants one.

It's about priorities. My supposition from an emissions standpoint is that we should focus on electric vehicle production and utilize our currently limited electrical and battery supply for that purpose to get the most bang for the buck in terms of CO2 reduction (correct me if I'm wrong). Gasoline is a less efficient fuel from multiple standpoints than NG. Drilling, refining, transportation and combustion all lead to CO2 emissions, and (correct me if I am wrong) a gallon of gas results in far more CO2 (and other) emissions that the equivalent energy content of NG. And of course, NG does not have to be delivered from a foreign source.

On a related note, I question home solar vs "industrial" (large-scale, "grid level") solar. Solar panels and the related hardware, wiring, disconnects, inverters are all resource and manpower intensive to produce and install, as well as expensive. Grid level solar provides economies of scale you don't see with home solar. I believe per KwH, a Megapack is far less expensive than a Powerwall. Homes are rarely designed from the ground up to optimize solar panel placement. Size, solar incidence, potentially shaded due to trees or neighboring structures. And of course they primarily provide power, specifically backup/nighttime power, to only one home. Per dollar spent and per solar panel, I suspect that there is a lot more efficiency in grid level solar, which provides power to all consumers, not just those that can afford the cost of home solar. In order to make electricity based home heating cost competitive with NG in high-cost areas it's important to keep it as efficient and low-cost as possible, specifically to avoid burdening lower-income citizens with excessive heating costs. Which I think IS doable, as solar/storage scales, as we see economies of scale-and as a company with the innovation and focus on excellence and design for manufacturing of Tesla makes it happen. But-that will take time-where does it make sense to focus our priorities in the meantime? Oh, really looking forward to seeing what Tesla does along the lines of highly efficient home-scale heat pump systems-that will really help make electric heating competitive with NG. And with Tesla's focus on manufacturing innovation and design for manufacturing, I think they can come up with not just a more efficient heat pump system than current manufacturers, but a less expensive one as well.

Sorry for the long-winded post, needed to make my thoughts clear, which I failed to do before.
Thank you for the more accurate description of your thoughts. Your prior post did suggest you think of natural gas to be the clean way out. The weakness there is that the fixed-cost nature of NG (u/g pipeline distribution all the way to the end user is the bulk of this) and the natural monopoly that thereupon ensues means that shifting away from same effectively fatally cripples the development of solar / solar+batteries / etc. in any particular subdivision...===>...state or nation that binds itself to NG.

As far as emission of CO2 goes stacking up NG vs. other hydrocarbons, even there, unfortunately, NG fares poorly. These data: How Natural Gas Stacks up in the Race to Reduce Emissions show that on a per-distance traveled, NG is 30% less emissive...BUT, much worse, that work did not include at all the now increasingly more demonstrable field leakage all over the world of natural gas. Worst of all is that uncombusted NG which is, as you likely know, primarily methane, is a horrifically more potent greenhouse gas than is CO2.

In conclusion, shuffling along, so to speak, with current usage patterns and using the capital that otherwise would go toward building out NG operations to, instead, battery production and solar+battery facilities, plus some of the other routes you suggested, is the most cost-effective and environmentally appropriate path to take.
 
By the way, it is appropriate here for me to describe in a nutshell how I have dealt with putting my pocketbook where my mouth is, although long-term readers have known of this for many years. First, at 63ºN latitude and at an elevation just at the treeline, all such challenges are exacerbated.

Our hands were, amusingly (to outsiders, at least. 'Twarn't for us at the time), forced by our then-extant electricity microgrid's fatal decision to raise the cost of its large diesel generator's derived electricity to $4.15/kWh. You read that correctly.

What that meant was that it instantly became cost-effective for me to install a PV + battery system, augmented by a generator, plus a solar hydronic water heater. 36 panels; 110kWh storage; 48V set-up; 12kW of inversion. We use 2 high-output Blaze King wood stoves with catalytic converters for home heat; on-demand water heaters. It's a pretty good system for our location (Once we did this, the few others in our 'location' followed suit with something likewise and the morons running the community generator, having no better business sense in any of their other operations, went bankrupt). Solar insolation in winter months is understandably pitiful but as most of our consumption is in our refrigeration/freezer units, guess what we don't have to have on during those months? The current 30kW diesel generator I have has, after 7 1/2 yrs, just over 700 hours over run-time - ie, negligible. I would like to have gone with a geothermal heat pump but we live atop some permafrost lenses....

I do still have use for diesel, in addition to the genset. The heavy haulers - (F-350 and long bed Sprinter); the forklift, CAT305 excavator, CAT287B skidsteer - all these have, understandably, a power curve that still depends on hydrocarbons. But they will be supplanted by EV motors as soon as feasible alternatives are available.

If I can achieve this where we live, others in climes more appropriate for human presence can do the same.
 
This comes up on occasion - how Congress is in on the trading scam, so thought I'd ask if this is a legit effort. I found it ironic that the letter is to Nancy (and McCarthy) who's name has surfaced here a few times along the lines TSLA investment timing.

If anything, it has some fun facts, so here's the letter. (Mods, hopefully this doesn't get political, I'm just sharing as this very topic keeps surfacing here, and only wondering if it's something we should support further, or just a game as usual.)
Do we know if she still holds TSLA and/or TSLA options? 🧐
 
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Pretty early to call this a great next opportunity. The heavy hitters funded a 5 million seed round. A light investing day for "heavy hitters."
A good idea would be to spend the first $ 1K of that on a company web site.

https://terraformindustries.com

My niece works at a startup doing something similar, synthesizing fuel from solar and air. At scale, the fuel should be competitive with fossil.

There’s quite a few competitors, but everyone will sell everything they produce. Transportation companies will pay a premium because it moves them towards carbon neutrality without retrofitting anything.

Although the process is too expensive for sequestration, the fuel is compatible with existing ones, so each gallon of synthetic displaces a gallon of fossil.

Seems like a great market once the scaling is in place.
 
I wondered the same thing when I saw Dodger's message, so I searched and found this article from Feb 2020:
Ralph Nader says SEC should probe Tesla trading based on the stock’s recent spike higher

Yup, there was a CNBC interview with Ralph Nader also posted on their Youtube channel: (I kept the link)

Ralph Nader: SEC should investigate Tesla for possible insider trading, market manipulation | CNBC on Youtube (5 Feb 2020)


There was also this article posted on Marketwatch.com just 2 weeks prior:

Tesla will mark the beginning of the end for this bull market, warns Ralph Nader | Marketwatch Jan 23, 2020)


EDIT: For those who don't remember, this interview was the day following TSLA's "Black Tuesday", when a bear raid in the final 15 minutes of the main session dropped the SP over $100 triggering its Q1 slump. We found out months later in SEC filings that hedge fund giant Citadel LLC had taken up market making in TSLA just days before on Jan 31, 2020. This the same hedge fund which did a $2.3B bailout of the fund which went insolvent during the AMC short squeeze Jan 26, 2021. IMO, it is these guys and JPMoargas which are the primary market antagonists of TSLA, and purveyors of FUD.​

As we saw, the world kept on turning even though Ralph missed the big macro impact of 2020/21. Maybe he didn't read about it in the NY Post or the NY Times? Ralphie is a Technological Ostrich but occasionally he pops his head up (no doubt ona pay-per-view basis). :p

As you can see, shortzes and hedgies trot out their usual bee-esse each January to try to kneecap TSLA (2021 was Michael Burry, also now with zero credibility). Its an unending parade of short stooges, and yet Tesla keeps executing and delivering outsized returns. Their secret? They don't need the Markets anymore to succeed.

Cheers to the longs!
 
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