Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zhelko Dimic]

Two Insights from Tesla's Inventory Details:
I just started looking at the 10K. I went straight to the Inventory details because I had seen a pattern developing in Q2 & Q3.

View attachment 765947

Raw Materials
While Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) grew 49%, Raw Materials grew by 87% and now sits at a whopping $2.8B. Raw Materials should increase as your production grows but the $2.8B in raw materials is high even taking into account the 49% growth and the Austin/Berlin launch inventory. I suspect, Tesla increased its safety stock on key components by at least $600m.
Key Take Away: Tesla enters 2022 with a better stock position to deal with shortages than 2021 (edited to correct years mentioned).

Work In Progress (WIP)
WIP grew 121% vs PY and this cannot be the automotive division as Tesla did not double it's manufacturing lines and we don't see thousand of unfinished cars anywhere. My guess is that this increase is related to Energy and its Megapacks. We have seen many megapacks sitting around at the Sparks GF. I suspect, these Megapacks are waiting for a part. This is the reason why Energy sales and margins were so disappointing in Q4.
Key Take Away: Once the missing parts arrive and megapacks delivered, we could see a nice bump in sales possibly adding $0.25 to EPS for the Qtr.

View attachment 765959

I'm going to gently disagree on observation re raw material. Rough approximation, raw material is what will be used to build cars in the future, say next quarter.
Tesla delivered 185K in Q1 '21 and for Q1 '22 will likely beat last Q, i.e. over 310K cars. This is easily 70% higher output, perhaps 80% and more. Add a bit of inflation, and it seems Tesla keeps raw materials proportional to the production output.

Now, there is discrepancy of COGS being only 49% YOY, while both raw materials and revenue are 70%+?

To me, this only means that Tesla succeeded in finding significant savings elsewhere(labor, efficiency, productivity, simplification, vertical integration, localization), and NOT in the cost of the input - this is the very point of first principle thinking.

 

[Yuri_G]

I was just asking myself if the stress of being a TSLA investor was still worth it but then I reminded myself that that's the cost of outsized gains. People who don't want to deal with the ups and down buy something boring. I didn't share to scare anyone, but it's good to be prepared IMO.

I'm off right now so I need to spend some time with 10.10

I've seen my car do a similar maneuver in both 10.9 and 10.10. It kind of just swerves out of the lane and to the right. In my case goes straight towards a curb with no slowing. I've never experienced it until the last two updates and Tesla needs to fix it asap.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm curious as to what they're using for a test track. Are they sending out Austin Made Y to a nearby testing track until one get's made at Austin?

There's lots of room inside the building. And 3 floors, too. I think the more interesting question is where will they put the outgoing logistics yard (if they plan to have one). If so, could be that new parking lot resurfacing working now ongoing in NE of the main structure.

 

[Opus BC fan]

President Joe Biden finally says the word 'Tesla'

President Joe Biden has finally uttered the word “Tesla” in a speech, recognizing the company as the country’s “largest electric vehicle manufacturer.” Since Biden’s Presidency began in 2021, he has recognized the U.S.’ need for electric vehicles. However, Biden has stuck to commending legacy...

www.teslarati.com

Since 2021, companies have announced investments totaling more than $200 billion in domestic manufacturing here in America. From iconic companies like GM and Ford, building out new electric vehicle production [facilities], to Tesla, our nation’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, to innovative, younger companies like Rivian, building electric trucks, or ProTerra, building electric buses

Let's see if this is worth a bump to the SP
(doubtful, very doubtful)

 

[inconel]

Did Biden say "Vivian"?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Lesson #1 - driver needs to stay attentive

And keep hands on the wheel. YouTubers looking for clicks are going to set FSD back more than Missy Cummings ever could.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Wait.....LG Energy Solutions IPO'd? Whatever happened to buying a chunk of this operation to gain some leverage over battery supply?

Battery IPO leaves LG Chem low on power

LG Chem's battery-making business has electrified investors, but what's left fails to impress. The South Korean group and its subsidiary, LG Energy Solution, raised 12.8 trillion won ($10.8 billion) in the country's largest ever initial public offering after pricing shares at the top of the...

www.reuters.com

 

[wtlloyd]

There's lots of room inside the building. And 3 floors, too. I think the more interesting question is where will they put the outgoing logistics yard (if they plan to have one). If so, could be that new parking lot resurfacing working now ongoing in NE of the main structure.

I really think the massive apron being poured across the south end is the only logical site. Transporters can enter and exit under the west bridge and have zero impact on employee and materials traffic. It's a much thicker pour than you would need for single passenger vehicles.

 

[Discoducky]

This is a legit recall Hyundai and Kia tell owners of nearly 500,000 vehicles to park outside due to fire risk which I'm sorry to hear about.

An OTA software update is NOT a recall; it's a Friday night.

 

[MC3OZ]

I really think the massive apron being poured across the south end is the only logical site. Transporters can enter and exit under the west bridge and have zero impact on employee and materials traffic. It's a much thicker pour than you would need for single passenger vehicles.

It also looks reasonably likely they might install Superchargers in that area, perhaps similar to the solar powered Superchargers at Shanghai.

Or they might put up a tent in that area.. but my hunch is outgoing Supercharging and logistics.

 

[jbcarioca]

Hey look, Volvo gets it!

"This is the biggest technology shift since we switched from wood to steel," a Volvo engineer told Automotive News Europe. Volvo's head of engineering and operations told the outlet that the new process will cut down the time it takes to assemble large aluminum parts by 75%.

Volvo will build electric cars using Tesla's signature megacasting process

Tesla uses giant casting machines to make some parts of its Model Y SUV. Now Volvo is following suit with a $1.1 billion investment in manufacturing.

www.businessinsider.com

Better to say “Geely gets it..”. They’re still using LG pouches in the Belgium cars at CATL prismática in China builds. With Volvo new presses it seems likely they’ll use mostly Northvolt CTP from the Belgium cars.

For all the flailing in Geely Group they are making serious progress. FWIW, as of last month Volvo is the highest selling BEV in Brasil. Mine was one of the first to arrive last year.

We need Tesla in Brasil to make the market really grow.

 

[jbcarioca]

I hope Polestar is on board.

Polestar are built on the same CMA architecture that Volvo XC40 and C40 plus numerous Geely models. We can expect the Gigacastings first on CMA cars before larger ones. Larger new platforms, pure electric ones, are being designed now.

These will not challenge Tesla but will be high pressure in the traditional EU luxury classes and probably speed up Magna, especially Magna Steyr, since the Jaguar i-Pace has stalled.

This clearly shows that the smaller OEM’s are the ones to watch. Otherwise we should watch Magna. They’re making big movements on small, medium and industrial BEV, mostly invisible outside the contract manufacturing world.

 

[jbcarioca]

A Look Inside the Paint Shop of Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai - IPCM

www.ipcm.it

Nice little video teaser of Giga Berlin paintshop in action.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1491168831347511296

This story from early last year discusses this and explicitly states Shanghai will be retrofitted with the Berlin technology. Presumably Austin will have it too. I searching for direct data about cost and quality improvements distinct from the environmental benefits.

A Look Inside the Paint Shop of Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai - IPCM

www.ipcm.it

The only public information that I have yet found giving clues is the Geico Pardis project:

Geicotaikisha.com no longer exists - GeicoTaikisha

geicotaikisha.com

 

[FS_FRA]

Positive article about Elon helping the father of the Ft. Lauderdale teenager that died (click on photo for link) in a crash (116mph into wall).




Pity the father (or probably the hyena lawyer smells the payoff of his lifetime) is now suing Tesla....FUD alarm probably required.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lol..... FUD generators really scraping the bottom of the barrel.

There's a good lesson here. Plenty of TMCers back in the day wanted Elon to aggressively refute FUD with a heavy PR barrage to every attack. Elon decided to ignore all the noise and keep executing.

Now here we are.

Windshield defrosting! Lol!

 

[petit_bateau]

Polestar are built on the same CMA architecture that Volvo XC40 and C40 plus numerous Geely models. We can expect the Gigacastings first on CMA cars before larger ones. Larger new platforms, pure electric ones, are being designed now.

These will not challenge Tesla but will be high pressure in the traditional EU luxury classes and probably speed up Magna, especially Magna Steyr, since the Jaguar i-Pace has stalled.

This clearly shows that the smaller OEM’s are the ones to watch. Otherwise we should watch Magna. They’re making big movements on small, medium and industrial BEV, mostly invisible outside the contract manufacturing world.

Stalls ? Plummet more like, down 67% yoy. It's a toss-up whether BMW or JLR will fold first at this rate:

Jaguar I-PACE Sales Shrunk To Below 10,000 In 2021

In 2021, Jaguar sold 9,970 I-PACE. That's the worst result since its launch and 39% lower than in 2020.

insideevs.com

 

[fiveten]

MMD and then to the moon today? I'm feeling lucky

 

[Unpilot]

There's lots of room inside the building. And 3 floors, too. I think the more interesting question is where will they put the outgoing logistics yard (if they plan to have one). If so, could be that new parking lot resurfacing working now ongoing in NE of the main structure.

That's crazy talk...test track inside a building....the cost to clear the air...the huge fans to remove the fumes.....oh wait...never mind.

 

[Singuy]

MMD and then to the moon today? I'm feeling lucky

Both spy and qqq broke through resistance premarket. Face ripper to qqq 371 which can help Tesla break 940? We will see. I wish Tesla can break 940 premarket...it's grinding.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Premarket volume seems strong. SP @ $939