Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Is it me or is FUD increasing on social media? Is it because TSLA went down the last couple of months? I also see loads of clips of Gali almost hitting the bicycle in San Francisco.

I still don’t get their agenda. Short positions of TSLA has decreased the last couple of years so I can’t see that all of these posters have monetary stakes in spreading FUD.

It’s a mistake imho, to assume that every account posting Tesla FUD is a different person. The funded ones are likely running 40 or more accounts each. Amazing that the good guys still tend to overwhelm. Tesla community is strong and voluminous.

 

[aGreenGuy]

FWIW, CPI for Norway jan21-jan22 came out at 3.2%. Monthly runrate growth fell from 5.3% in dec21 to 3.2% jan22 if I interpret the numbers right. Last year’s rise was, according to this mainstream source, due to record high price growth for electricity. (Despite this, EV sales are record high!) Crossing fingers for US numbers!

Cheers to the longs!

Source: Inflasjonen faller kraftig i januar: – Dette kommer etter usedvanlig overraskende tall i desember, sier sjeføkonom

 

[Unpilot]

Reaction from Tesla

The DFEH’s Misguided Lawsuit

Pertinent point related by Tesla:

Over the past five years, the DFEH has been asked on almost 50 occasions by individuals who believe they were discriminated against or harassed to investigate Tesla. On every single occasion, when the DFEH closed an investigation, it did not find misconduct against Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Imagine what will happen to those 3 and Y efficiency figures if they drop the 3-500 lbs I saw mentioned here due to the structural pack and front/rear castings Rule of thumb is each 100 lbs is the equivalent of 10hp

Yeah, there isn't 500 lbs of battery pack related structure to drop in the 1st-production Model Y LR body (but it might be close to 300 lbs).

During Battery Day, we were told that switching to a structural pack would allow the battery pack to be "free weight". This implies that the weight of the cells alone with the old-style body would be equal to the weight of the new-style structure + cells. So the weight savings becomes: (weight of the old pack) - (weight of the old cells).

So if we estimate 270 wh/kg energy density in an 80 kw/h pack, that's roughly 670 lbs for the cells alone. From Sandy Munro's teardown, we know that the original Model Y pack weighs 437 kg, or 963 lbs. That's an estimated weight saving of just under 300 lbs.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

This is becoming somewhat tedious...
"Tesla recalls more vehicles as US agency increases scrutiny"

Tesla recalls more vehicles as US agency increases scrutiny

Tesla is recalling nearly 579,000 vehicles in the U.S. because a “Boombox” function can play sounds over an external speaker and obscure audible warnings for pedestrians.

apnews.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

CPI came in at 7.5% (worse than 7.2% expected). QQQ down 1.24%, TSLA down ~1.82% @ 8:39 ET

Inflation surges 7.5% on an annual basis, even more than expected and highest since 1982

The consumer price index was expected to increase 7.2% from a year ago, according to a Dow Jones economist survey.

www.cnbc.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

7.5 isn't all that terrible. I think the market just wants this behind us, tho today will likely be red.

Seems that oil futures are coming back to earth soon. That'll do a lot to bring prices down.

 

[traxila]

7.5 isn't all that terrible. I think the market just wants this behind us, tho today will likely be red.

Seems that oil futures are coming back to earth soon. That'll do a lot to bring prices down.

Oil is not the cause of inflation here. It is simply following the market, pricing supply chain disruption and a lagging indicator. Oil was priced higher in recent years with inflation at 2 percent or lower.

This is demand driven, liquidity driven, supply shortages inflation. And it has leaked into the labor market in a big way, which honestly, even as an employer I am OK with. Wages had to go up.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Oil is not the cause of inflation here. It is simply following the market, pricing supply chain disruption and a lagging indicator. Oil was priced higher in recent years with inflation at 2 percent or lower.

This is demand driven, liquidity driven, supply shortages inflation. And it has leaked into the labor market in a big way, which honestly, even as an employer I am OK with. Wages had to go up.

Quite a bit of it is money supply growth. As usual, there are both monetary policy and cost-push components.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Oil is not the cause of inflation here. It is simply following the market, pricing supply chain disruption and a lagging indicator. Oil was priced higher in recent years with inflation at 2 percent or lower.

This is demand driven, liquidity driven, supply shortages inflation. And it has leaked into the labor market in a big way, which honestly, even as an employer I am OK with. Wages had to go up.

The wages part and the “fear” around higher wages being stickier has always been a dumbfounding fear to me. For years, everyone was talking about “wage growths is sorely needed”. Now we get it and everyone’s complaining.

Granted it’s coming at a time when other costs are being artificially inflated due to Covid production stoppages from the past year, but if/when those costs start their downward trend, wages still be higher. Which a net plus for the economy

 

[Hock1]

Previewed in the 10-Q, but very unfortunate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/09/tesla-california-lawsuit/

California sues Tesla, alleging racial discrimination and harassment

The California Department of Fair Employment and Housing (DFEH), which filed the complaint Wednesday in a California state court, said it had received hundreds of complaints from workers. “Tesla’s Fremont factory is a racially segregated workplace where Black workers are subjected to racial slurs and discriminated against in job assignments, discipline, pay, and promotion creating hostile work environment. The facts on this case speak for themselves,” agency director Kevin Kish said in a statement.

"The facts on this case speak for themselves,” agency director Kevin Kish said in a statement.

The "facts" are yet to be determined by the adjudication of the complaint. One would think a director of such an agency would know the difference between allegations and facts. But, No.

 

[mikevbf]

7.5 isn't all that terrible. I think the market just wants this behind us, tho today will likely be red.

Seems that oil futures are coming back to earth soon. That'll do a lot to bring prices down.

The 7.5 is year over year. The bigger miss is the monthly change. Expectations were a .4 decrease and it came in at a .6 increase. I am no expert, but it might be the monthly data the market reacts to more.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

7.5 isn't all that terrible. I think the market just wants this behind us, tho today will likely be red.

Seems that oil futures are coming back to earth soon. That'll do a lot to bring prices down.

You’re much more optimistic than me. I think Q1 is a wash for the market and especially TSLA. FUD is near 2018-2019 levels so I expect will be testing the 200 day a few more times until Q1 P/D numbers.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The 7.5 is year over year. The bigger miss is the monthly change. Expectations were a .6 decrease and it came in at a .6 increase. I am no expert, but it might be the monthly data the market reacts to more.

No they weren’t. MoM expectations were for a .4% increase. So the numbers came in slightly higher than expected. No sure where you got .6% decrease

 

[CHGolferJim]

You’re much more optimistic than me. I think Q1 is a wash for the market and especially TSLA. FUD is near 2018-2019 levels so I expect will be testing the 200 day a few more times until Q1 P/D numbers.

Beginning to think the same thing. Emmett Peppers said the other day on Dave Lee’s podcast that he thinks even Berlin and Austin production start announcements are unlikely to move the SP.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

You’re much more optimistic than me. I think Q1 is a wash for the market and especially TSLA. FUD is near 2018-2019 levels so I expect will be testing the 200 day a few more times until Q1 P/D numbers.

Oh I'm fully on board with your 1Q treading water theory. Glad I moved the last of my BPS to May yesterday!

I just think we're rapidly moving out of the pandemic and this inflation will reverse quite rapidly.

There's a lotta money out there and 4Q tech earnings were real strong. I could see guidance at 1Q earnings getting a boost across the sector. We shall see!

 

[lascavarian]

This is becoming somewhat tedious...
"Tesla recalls more vehicles as US agency increases scrutiny"

Tesla recalls more vehicles as US agency increases scrutiny

Tesla is recalling nearly 579,000 vehicles in the U.S. because a “Boombox” function can play sounds over an external speaker and obscure audible warnings for pedestrians.

apnews.com

Buried in the article is the acknowledgment that Tesla fixed this issue back in January. This article smells a little bit like preemptive FUD given the SpaceX event this evening.

 

[mikevbf]

No they weren’t. MoM expectations were for a 4% increase. So the numbers came in sighting higher than expected. No sure where you got .6% decrease

Sorry I am new to looking at this data. You are right. Last month the increase was .5% and this month that increase was expected to slow to .4% increase not be negative .4%

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Beginning to think the same thing. Emmett Peppers said the other day on Dave Lee’s podcast that he thinks even Berlin and Austin production start announcements are unlikely to move the SP.

Well I don’t think we’re going to get any sort of announcement from Austin. It’s already started production and I doubt they do any sort of delivery event.

As for Berlin, I definitely do think there will be a pop from the announcement…mainly because there’s a lot of fear surrounding German officials right now so it will be a relief pop. But the timeline might make it so the pop is part of the Q1 P/D pop.

 

[LST]

Answer to *raffiniert*
My two cts: Don't let the bank manage your assets, they follow the market and they are NOT working in your interest. It is also called diworsifying. Focus, go where the puck will be: Sustainable energy, sustainable transport, AI, mRNA, some in Crypto. Real estate. With that in mind you'd need to track 4-6 enterprises. Time in the market beats timing the market, yadayada, not advice.. .diclaimer I'm 90%TSLA.