Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

I have 23.5 hours of meetings on my schedule this week.

 

[Sofie]

Can anyone confirm what Dave said about one of our members selling all his (big) holding before the big run up (in 2019)?

He sold BEFORE our big run up? I can only imagine the amount of therapy I’d need if I did something like that. Geesh I’d feel like crap.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Yeah, didn't Fred's buddy over at Electrek also sell his entire Tesla position shortly before it went stratospheric? He seemed quite proud of that decision- very briefly.

 

[ZeApelido]

I feel bad he lost out on the big run up.

[checks neroden disqus comments in the last 3 weeks]

I'm not even sure Tesla was wrong about cylindricals, but Tesla HAS demonstrated an utter inability to get production line consistency and reliability. The waste and failure rates are *embarassing*.

Tesla's profit margins are falsified, unfortunately, since they're underreserving for warranty costs.

I don't feel so bad right now.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I feel bad he lost out on the big run up.

[checks neroden disqus comments in the last weeks]





I don't feel so bad right now.

He went full Q. You never go full Q.

 

[thesmokingman]

I feel bad he lost out on the big run up.

[checks neroden disqus comments in the last weeks]





I don't feel so bad right now.

Reads like he doubled down on being wrong like our neighborhood bear Gordon Johnson.

 

[EVDRVN]

Yeah, didn't Fred's buddy over at Electrek also sell his entire Tesla position shortly before it went stratospheric? He seemed quite proud of that decision- very briefly.

Unlike Fred who is proud of every click bait tag line decision.

 

[Paul_SF]

Are we at peak FUD yet? TIA

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/10/video-tesla-full-self-driving-beta/

‘Full Self-Driving’ clips show Teslas on train tracks and fighting for control. Experts see deep flaws.

“Each of these moments — captured on video by a Tesla owner and posted online — reveals a fundamental weakness in Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” technology, according to a panel of experts assembled by The Washington Post and asked to examine the videos. These are problems with no easy fix, the experts said, where patching one issue might introduce new complications, or where the nearly infinite array of possible real-life scenarios is simply too much for Tesla’s algorithms to master.”

 

[Snerruc]

I laughed when reading this. 10 hours of meetings per week would be a dream in many corporate environments. I have 23.5 hours of meetings on my schedule this week. That's after some were canceled and I'd say it's a slightly light week. So 25 hours may be average for me here. I've done consulting and spent time in different established corporations. This level, or slightly less, is the norm. Most upper management truly doesn't "get it." That's why engineers are rushing to work for Musk companies. Once they burn out from being overworked, they can move on to the soul sucking jobs that allow for a work life balance. That's what I did.

My daughter is often triple booked on meetings. I don’t know how you guys deal with it. In my days, we didn’t even have them.

 

[Unpilot]

Are we at peak FUD yet? TIA

Nope...not even close.

However I believe the FUD is having less and less effect.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I feel bad he lost out on the big run up.

[checks neroden disqus comments in the last 3 weeks]





I don't feel so bad right now.

He was never lacking for hubris. I remember a post to the effect of “If Elon would just have lunch with me, I could show him how to solve all his problems in five minutes”.

He lost me there.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/10/video-tesla-full-self-driving-beta/

‘Full Self-Driving’ clips show Teslas on train tracks and fighting for control. Experts see deep flaws.

“Each of these moments — captured on video by a Tesla owner and posted online — reveals a fundamental weakness in Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” technology, according to a panel of experts assembled by The Washington Post and asked to examine the videos. These are problems with no easy fix, the experts said, where patching one issue might introduce new complications, or where the nearly infinite array of possible real-life scenarios is simply too much for Tesla’s algorithms to master.”

Do we really need to post anything from the Washington Post? Everyone here already knows the narrative and there's no need to give their advertisers clicks

 

[DFibRL8R]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/10/video-tesla-full-self-driving-beta/

‘Full Self-Driving’ clips show Teslas on train tracks and fighting for control. Experts see deep flaws.

“Each of these moments — captured on video by a Tesla owner and posted online — reveals a fundamental weakness in Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” technology, according to a panel of experts assembled by The Washington Post and asked to examine the videos. These are problems with no easy fix, the experts said, where patching one issue might introduce new complications, or where the nearly infinite array of possible real-life scenarios is simply too much for Tesla’s algorithms to master.”

Another Faiz Siddiqui Tesla hit-piece in WaPo, he's been on a tear this week with anti Tesla FUD stories so I'd say peak FUD is near. Also, please try not to click on links to his articles as I can picture Bezos giving him a quarter for each one.

 

[Rarity]

He went full Q. You never go full Q.

I am unable to plot out how he went from being one of the more prolific and helpful TMC posters to being full Q. Mystifying, even though I probably read every single post of his in the investor section.

Really tragic, but I guess we can never really tell when we ourselves are on tilt.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Do we really need to post anything from the Washington Post? Everyone here already knows the narrative and there's no need to give their advertisers clicks

WaPo is widely read, especially by US Govt types. It’s not some tabloid. I think it’s important we understand the specific talking points that are being (mis)used.

The new battlefield is FSD. It’s Tesla’s number one potential liability right now. The “recall” actions of NHSTA are another piece of this. I fully expect NHSTA to try to shut down the Beta program soon.

 

[Thekiwi]

WaPo is widely read, especially by US Govt types. It’s not some tabloid. I think it’s important we understand the specific talking points that are being (mis)used.

The new battlefield is FSD. It’s Tesla’s number one potential liability right now. The “recall” actions of NHSTA are another piece of this. I fully expect NHSTA to try to shut down the Beta program soon.

Its a real risk - I think it definitely is appropriate to keep track of how the mainstream media is reporting this.

While many here quickly label these reports as “FUD” they are in most cases simply describing actual FSD videos being shared by Beta program participants.

The debate about whether this Beta program should exist is actually a very valid one. I‘m not trying to argue one way or another on the risks and dangers of it, but Tesla presumably has a back up plan in place for a situation where the Beta program is forced to be withdrawn. Presumably that back-up will be a mix of employee-only testing, and increased simulation testing.

 

[Nocturnal]

He was never lacking for hubris. I remember a post to the effect of “If Elon would just have lunch with me, I could show him how to solve all his problems in five minutes”.

He lost me there.

Right? How can you have lunch in 5 minutes?

WaPo is widely read, especially by US Govt types. It’s not some tabloid. I think it’s important we understand the specific talking points that are being (mis)used.

The new battlefield is FSD. It’s Tesla’s number one potential liability right now. The “recall” actions of NHSTA are another piece of this. I fully expect NHSTA to try to shut down the Beta program soon.

I'm pretty sure an attempt is coming.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am unable to plot out how he went from being one of the more prolific and helpful TMC posters to being full Q. Mystifying, even though I probably read every single post of his in the investor section.

Really tragic, but I guess we can never really tell when we ourselves are on tilt.

The really tragic thing is that probably for the next 3-6 months, anyone that missed out before will get a chance to buy into TSLA at a Forward P/E valuation of 50-75 and after Tesla's margin narrative is proved out, their 4680 Cell's proved out, and production for the company de-risked.

And yet he's still going to be too stubborn to buy in

 

[Prunesquallor]

Another Faiz Siddiqui Tesla hit-piece in WaPo, he's been on a tear this week with anti Tesla FUD stories so I'd say peak FUD is near. Also, please try not to click on links to his articles as I can picture Bezos giving him a quarter for each one.

I try to annoy Faiz pretty regularly on Twitter. He’s a hack. It pains me that he’s WaPo’s go-to Tesla guy.

I’m not trying to encourage clicks, but I feel a link is important to establish context. We’re big boys and girls. We can click (or not) as we see fit.