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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'm not so certain. Zoom in on the tractor in this picture from today: that's a day-cab, which makes it less likely to be a long-haul route, more likely to be ~300 miles (max radius w/o overniting due to driver rest laws)

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Do you remember that recent tweet from the Texas Gov'n pictured with Elon, saying he's been to the State Capitol? Abbott would look bad if, just weeks later, there was a local delivery snafu. What's the advantage to Gov'n Abbott to making any announcement vs just permitting deliveries? He won't have to fight with TX Legislators Dealers if presented with a fait accompli. And it won't be huge volumes until next year.

Cheers!
Here are the options I can think of:

1) Abbott passed an executive order on the QT allowing EVs to skirt the dealership laws. This was the essence of the bill that got stalled last legislative session. This has the advantage of a phased disenfranchisement for dealerships. The EO may sunset at the next legislative session (early 2023).

2) Tesla has set up a staging area(s) across the TX border where they can haul the cars, then register the sales and bring them back.

3) Tesla, with a wink and a nod from Austin, is ignoring the laws and will handle the dealership lawsuits later.
 
Do you remember that recent tweet from the Texas Gov'n pictured with Elon, saying he's been to the State Capitol? Abbott would look bad if, just weeks later, there was a local delivery snafu. What's the advantage to Gov'n Abbott to making any announcement vs just permitting deliveries? He won't have to fight with TX Legislators Dealers if presented with a fait accompli. And it won't be huge volumes until next year.

The governor can't "permit" deliveries. It's not his choice or decision.

It's literally against the law. Regardless of volume.

Only the state legislature, which isn't scheduled to meet again until 2023, can change that.

The governor could call a special session sooner- but has thusfar refused to do so to address the issue.

Those cars are going out of state- for sure- if they're to be sold to customers. Even customers within Texas.
 
Here are the options I can think of:

1) Abbott passed an executive order on the QT allowing EVs to skirt the dealership laws. This was the essence of the bill that got stalled last legislative session. This has the advantage of a phased disenfranchisement for dealerships. The EO may sunset at the next legislative session (early 2023).

2) Tesla has set up a staging area(s) across the TX border where they can haul the cars, then register the sales and bring them back.

3) Tesla, with a wink and a nod from Austin, is ignoring the laws and will handle the dealership lawsuits later.
What about selling them on a Federal Indian Reservation like he did in New Mexico?

Then again, they could just be going for testing.
😟
 
The governor can't "permit" deliveries. It's not his choice or decision.

It's literally against the law. Regardless of volume.

Only the state legislature, which isn't scheduled to meet again until 2023, can change that.

The governor could call a special session sooner- but has thusfar refused to do so to address the issue.

Those cars are going out of state- for sure- if they're to be sold to customers. Even customers within Texas.

Also, there's no incentive to make local deliveries this far out from quarter-end. Save those for EOQ.
 
It needs to be someone that can steer an interview and Rob is absolutely the right guy for that. Dave is also good, and has the right mindset that he would be a valuable second interviewer.

Let's not ignore the real 800 lbs gorilla in the room: @DaveT recently came up with this long list of questions about Elon's "methodology" which clearly is NOT how Elon runs his closely held projects. Unless Dave is willing to give up that mindset, he doesn't really stand a good chance of getting to any deeper truths about Tesla (which is what Dave advertises as the basis of his investing method).

Dave: here's some hints:
  1. Elon is practical (that's why they "fail quickly", fix, and move forward)
  2. Elon is pragmatic (that's why he "closed all retail stores everywhere", then changed his mind within 4 weeks when he saw the problems)
  3. Elon is tied to "outcomes", not "methods" (we're going to build a city on Mars, not we're building a carbon-fiber rocket and won't even consider steel because "we only future")
TL;dr Don't try to stuff Elon into your little box; his mind doesn't fit. Maybe pick a specific historical episode which is not well understood, and do a deep dive on it. AND: Give Elon a least 1 night's sleep on the topic BEFORE you ask the question. That'll maximize your chances of getting at the deep answers.

One possible topic for example, "EXPONENTIAL GROWTH", how it affects Tesla (ie: how to battery scaling to 2TWh/yr), and the outcome for Renewable Energy.

Good luck, and

Cheers!
 
To get past the standard Elon answers we’ve all heard numerous times, some questions from Jordon (The Limiting Factor) and James Douma (self described “deep learning dork“) might help break new ground.

I’m keen to learn Tesla’s LFP form factor and production strategy.

On FSD I’d like insight into why they are confident of success when version after version makes the left turn onto fast busy roads seem like a mission requiring paid up life insurance. There must be something they know that we don’t.
For FSD what they know that we don't is, the rate of improvement over previous versions, future versions in the pipeline, and the cause of any regressions.

However, when Elon said FSD and the Raptor where the 2 things he spends the most time thinking about, we could interpret the FSD part of that comment as bullish or bearish... Elon is thinking about it because he can see a path forward and there a just a new more pieces of the jigsaw to slot in place, or Elon is thinking about it because some hard to solve problems have recently emerged. And perhaps it is neither. maybe he is always more involved in FSD than we imagine,.

I agree James Douma could ask the right questions, he would understand the answers, and some of us might.

On battery cells that is a probable limit or what Elon should say, or would like to say... then there is what he will accidentally let slip in a friendly interview which could be a lot more. Even on the earnings call it, seems to me at times Elon was finding it hard to resist the temptation to at least drop hints.

The problem is, if we know, then all Tesla competitors know, perhaps before Tesla wants them to know.

For FSD the risk of a competitor duplicating what Tesla has done in 5 years is minimal.

For battery cells, the Chinese battery makers will not need many hints, they will find out eventually, but maybe it is best to delay that....

IMO there are times when Elon avoids giving out information on batteries, some of the words used on Battery Day and afterwards, might be carefully chosen.
 
Gali got his hands on some 4680 cells, I hope he tests them or gives them to someone who can

He does get excited. Just for reference I do believe his 'top' is actually the bottom. The copper ring is not the cathode but the pressure release. The cathode is the button on the other end - that is where there will be one electrical connection. Cool to see none-the-less.