Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Not a lawyer:
Public domain is not quite the same same as open source. Either way, you can't patent someone else's idea.
Ford's patent app was submitted after the Tweet about dog mode, thus the base concept of dog mode cannot be patented. However, a method of implementing dog mode could still be patented (use of key fob for instance). However, defense of the patent could still fail at the novelty/ non-obviousness criteria (of course dog mode adjusts cabin temperature).

Having submitted a patent application, Ford could then warn Tesla after dog mode was released that they may be infringing on a pending patent, but there is no legal standing until the patent is granted. Once granted though, they could theoretically seek damages back to the point at which they gave notice.

After the whole "Model E" legal threat from Ford years ago, Tesla owes Ford a good smackdown. I would love to see Tesla lawyers go after Ford for this, like rabid dogs (pun intended).

 

[Krugerrand]

This post is prima facie evidence that the nearly ten year history for @adiggs carries with it an unusually clear understanding of our world.
I nominate this post for Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit

To add perspective I suggest anybody seeking to disqualify Elon Musk might check biographies of Henry Ford, Thomas Edison, Albert Einstein or many other outsized contributors to human advances. It might help to check W A Mozart, as well. With an tiny amount of insight we see that great accomplishments are almost (I say almost only because I am not positive it is actually 'all') never made by well-balanced socially adept people. That does not apply to only men. Marie Curie, Ada Lovelace and Rosalind Franklin come to mind. Without these flawed women we'd have waited longer to have understanding of things such as radioactivity, programming and DNA.

From ancient times great accomplishments-lishmenst have come from flawed people.
Now we have Elon Musk who stands in clear harmony with the great accomplishments of human history. Were he not serious flawed would he have had the ability to develop 'impossible' things?

Same people, same judgements, and still unwilling to take the simple step to separate themselves from the slight to their sensibilities because money, unfulfilled emotional needs and personal *cough* flaws. If only they could recognize their own flaws as swiftly and deeply as the flaws of others and actually go about doing something productive to correct them.

And no, for those dimwits about to assume I must thusly support everything tweeted, no I do not. The cat prefers to accept that which it can not control and continue to work toward reducing dog overpopulation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

A Key Risk for Tesla Stock: Look What Happened to Albemarle

Things are looking good in the lithium industry. Stock in lithium miner Albemarle tanked after earnings anyway. The reason is operating leverage and fixed cost absorption. Tesla investors should take note.

www.barrons.com

"Tesla Stock Just Received a Warning From Albemarle Earnings"​

So Tesla is in this headline because their batteries, like all other EV batteries, use lithium. Is that the only reason?

Albemarle declared a proforma earnings beat of $1 per share, but a GAAP loss. Their cash burn has gone up to $600M per quarter, while their revenues are flat.

Completely the opposite situation from Tesla. Tesla is benefitting from operational leverage, its GAAP earnings are growing faster than the company's (already impressive) production growth, and its R&D expenses are flat.

But, "lithium". Hey, that's the same right? /s

Cheers!

 

[daniel]

Daniel what year did you purchase your car? Was it totaled in a collision, traded in, or sold? Or is it possible we are just talking about the number of years in the past and Tesla can't time travel to make you whole?

Ogre, I think your statements are untrue because you assume 100% of the people that bought a Tesla with FSD still have that tesla. Even if that isn't the issue for Daniel there are people that have had collisions or upgraded to a newer Tesla and paid for FSD more than once.

For those lovely people that paid for FSD, upgraded to a newer Tesla and paid for FSD again there is no way Tesla can go back and upgrade a car they don't have anymore. The damage was done and fixed in time, you can't change history.

I bought my car in 2018. I was not affected by the lie because I didn't believe it and didn't buy FSD. I was responding to a claim that Musk didn't lie by pointing out that he lied to me and many thousands of other buyers. It's true that Tesla has been upgrading hardware. But in other threads we read that that process has been a real cluster____ for a lot of owners. And the promise was not "We'll upgrade your car as needed." The promise was "Your car has all the necessary hardware now." If I had paid for FSD my car would have had to be shipped to Oahu several times for hardware upgrades, probably a one-week transit each way (the actual crossing is short, but from drop-off to pick-up is not) plus service time. It's not Tesla's fault that I live on an island without a service center, but remember, they promised that such upgrades would not be needed. ("Your car has all the necessary hardware now.")

And anybody (including Musk!) who really thinks that a non-geofenced robotaxi-capable Tesla will be here before the end of this decade is just out of touch with reality. Yet Musk keeps saying it's coming in six months to a year.

Tesla built the best cars on the road and then sold many of those buyers an impossible-to-deliver promise. Autonomous driving is coming. But not before half of the cars sold when they began making that promise have aged out of the fleet and the buyers never got what they were promised. And if you sell your car you cannot keep FSD for your new car OR transfer it to the new buyer, so it's a total loss to you. That's just sleazy.

To quote (from memory, probably not exact) from one of the car magazines, "A company without an advertising department needs to keep its promises to its buyers or the public is going to lose faith in it." And that's where it comes back to being relevant to investors: Public confidence influences the market, and Musk is undermining public confidence with his repeated broken promises. These are the best cars on the market. They sell themselves. The only thing that can hurt Tesla right now is Musk promising things he cannot deliver over and over again.

Musk should admit that true driverless autonomy is years away, that it will probably require several more hardware upgrades, which might not even be possible in the end for the earlier FSD buyers, that even Level 2 city autosteer is far from ready for distribution to everybody who would like to have it, offer a full refund with interest to FSD buyers, and then continue the development with no other promise but "We're working on it and we're optimistic." The market will thank Tesla for its honesty.

Mod: This discussion ends here. It has nothing to do with Tesla investment. --ggr

 

[mars_or_bust]

This post is prima facie evidence that the nearly ten year history for @adiggs carries with it an unusually clear understanding of our world.
I nominate this post for Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit

To add perspective I suggest anybody seeking to disqualify Elon Musk might check biographies of Henry Ford, Thomas Edison, Albert Einstein or many other outsized contributors to human advances. It might help to check W A Mozart, as well. With an tiny amount of insight we see that great accomplishments are almost (I say almost only because I am not positive it is actually 'all') never made by well-balanced socially adept people. That does not apply to only men. Marie Curie, Ada Lovelace and Rosalind Franklin come to mind. Without these flawed women we'd have waited longer to have understanding of things such as radioactivity, programming and DNA.

From ancient times great accomplishments-lishmenst have come from flawed people.
Now we have Elon Musk who stands in clear harmony with the great accomplishments of human history. Were he not serious flawed would he have had the ability to develop 'impossible' things?

If you think about it, and are honest with yourself, you realize there probably is NO single "well balanced" person. We ALL have some quirk, apparent irrationality, opinions away from the current social mean. To call them right or wrong is usually just a personal bias.

The only "problem" with Elon is that he is one of the very very few who has no problem with being completely open and honest about his views on twitter et al. Most famous people have similar, or much more, "extreme" views (departure from the accepted mean), its just that they don't speak up, or put a fake personna up in public.

This open approach by Elon of course poses a danger, but damn is it refreshing, and a very important reason why I like Tesla. Plus it is a far more effective PR then all the multimillion PR experts hired to spew out fake bullshit - at the end of the day, a very large percentage of people (and this is increasing every day) recognizes that mainstream media and PR departments often have very little bearing with the truth, and are rather corrupt.

 

[Discoducky]

Not a lawyer:
Public domain is not quite the same same as open source. Either way, you can't patent someone else's idea.
Ford's patent app was submitted after the Tweet about dog mode, thus the base concept of dog mode cannot be patented. However, a method of implementing dog mode could still be patented (use of key fob for instance). However, defense of the patent could still fail at the novelty/ non-obviousness criteria (of course dog mode adjusts cabin temperature).

Having submitted a patent application, Ford could then warn Tesla after dog mode was released that they may be infringing on a pending patent, but there is no legal standing until the patent is granted. Once granted though, they could theoretically seek damages back to the point at which they gave notice.

All good points. Has anyone actually found the entirety of the patent? I looked but couldn't find it (free access of course). From the blurbs that I've seen I don't see any infringement as Ford is describing a process that is different than Tesla.

As this is engineering, we can further discuss in that thread and then bring the conclusions back here for business impact.

 

[fiveten]

All good points. Has anyone actually found the entirety of the patent? I looked but couldn't find it (free access of course). From the blurbs that I've seen I don't see any infringement as Ford is describing a process that is different than Tesla.

As this is engineering, we can further discuss in that thread and then bring the conclusions back here for business impact.

Patent Public Search | USPTO

patft.uspto.gov

 

[mars_or_bust]

I'd nominate adding Alan Turing to your list. Not only did he have a clear vision of computers and machine language before either even existed, but because of his historical context he was arguably responsible for altering the outcome of WWII.

Another might be Steve Jobs.

Like you I'm fascinated that there seems to be a correlation between "mild" personality/neurodevelopmental disorders and transcendent intellect.

And of course, there is Nikola Tesla himself, who never screwed, and was in love with a pigeon, while communicating with Martians.

 

[Lessmog]

Why wallstreet portfolio managers can’t put a number in their excel sheets for the future revenues of FSD while Cathy Wood can?

One part may be that she has hired a group of young enthusiastic people to do research in their own particular fields, and to share the findings in joint analysis. The other side does not have those advantages.

 

[Joe F]

Joe Tegtmeyer FTW! Pics this AM of 40 to 50 MORE Model Y's awaiting transit:

 

[BornToFly]

TSLA down ~3X the NASDAQ, even though Russian invasion would have no impact on Tesla's sales or earnings this quarter, or year.

 

[PeterJA]

Musk should admit that true driverless autonomy is years away...

Naysayers should admit they have no clue how far away true driverless autonomy is, because they don't know what the Tesla team is doing behind closed doors, they don't understand the problem like the Tesla team does, and they clearly don't understand the concept of exponential progress.

If you want to make predictions about the "years away" future based on the past, I suggest you study the history of technological progress, especially progress in Artificial Intelligence (from Deep Blue to Deep Mind), and then study Elon's history of doing what experts said was impossible (from reusable rockets to brain-computer interfaces). Then have a little humility about what you don't know.

 

[UncaNed]

Why all the hatred for the Hummer EV???

Sure it’s inefficient, but it is still 100% electric and compared to a regular Hummer is an incredibly good vehicle for the environment.

I wouldn’t buy one of course, but we should be cheering on a revamp of any horrendous gas-guzzler into a pure EV model.

I wonder what the embarrassing e-MPG equivalent of the Hummer EV is gonna be!

35 perhaps???

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Remember the prior years (Seem so longer ago now)....$TSLA goes down on good news, goes down on bad news.....and goes up on no news.....This will be evident in due time.

 

[Knightshade]

I wonder what the embarrassing e-MPG equivalent of the Hummer EV is gonna be!

35 perhaps???

This was already published- it's 47

 

[MTBEndodontist]

With all the FUD, you would have thought Tesla had the most recalls in the past two years. $TSLA had the fewest, and half were over the air updates.

 

[Speedr117]

I bought my car in 2018. I was not affected by the lie because I didn't believe it and didn't buy FSD. I was responding to a claim that Musk didn't lie by pointing out that he lied to me and many thousands of other buyers. It's true that Tesla has been upgrading hardware. But in other threads we read that that process has been a real cluster____ for a lot of owners. And the promise was not "We'll upgrade your car as needed." The promise was "Your car has all the necessary hardware now." If I had paid for FSD my car would have had to be shipped to Oahu several times for hardware upgrades, probably a one-week transit each way (the actual crossing is short, but from drop-off to pick-up is not) plus service time. It's not Tesla's fault that I live on an island without a service center, but remember, they promised that such upgrades would not be needed. ("Your car has all the necessary hardware now.")

And anybody (including Musk!) who really thinks that a non-geofenced robotaxi-capable Tesla will be here before the end of this decade is just out of touch with reality. Yet Musk keeps saying it's coming in six months to a year.

Tesla built the best cars on the road and then sold many of those buyers an impossible-to-deliver promise. Autonomous driving is coming. But not before half of the cars sold when they began making that promise have aged out of the fleet and the buyers never got what they were promised. And if you sell your car you cannot keep FSD for your new car OR transfer it to the new buyer, so it's a total loss to you. That's just sleazy.

To quote (from memory, probably not exact) from one of the car magazines, "A company without an advertising department needs to keep its promises to its buyers or the public is going to lose faith in it." And that's where it comes back to being relevant to investors: Public confidence influences the market, and Musk is undermining public confidence with his repeated broken promises. These are the best cars on the market. They sell themselves. The only thing that can hurt Tesla right now is Musk promising things he cannot deliver over and over again.

Musk should admit that true driverless autonomy is years away, that it will probably require several more hardware upgrades, which might not even be possible in the end for the earlier FSD buyers, that even Level 2 city autosteer is far from ready for distribution to everybody who would like to have it, offer a full refund with interest to FSD buyers, and then continue the development with no other promise but "We're working on it and we're optimistic." The market will thank Tesla for its honesty.

I just want to give my perspective, in a humble, non-threatening way.

Creating something that has never been done before is not a linear process. That is why there are usually "breakthroughs" that advance the progress towards the goal immensely, at a far greater rate than previous incremental improvements. Looking at FSD, you can see where they had a trajectory that they thought would solve it using just 2 photo snapshots/frames. Once they had optimized for that solution, they realized that no matter how much they perfected it, it would never be good enough. Hence the complete rewrite to video. This may or may not be the final architecture (will need to wait for it to be optimized before we can tell). Therefore, I don't think ANY time frame is accurate in regards to when L4/L5 will arrive. They're all just guesses based on previous trajectories.

Again, just my 2 cents.

 

[2daMoon]

Remember the prior years (Seem so longer ago now)....$TSLA goes down on good news, goes down on bad news.....and goes up on no news.....This will be evident in due time.

These known factors contribute toward refining long-term testing parameters in order to prove the TSLA Big Boing Theory.

 

[jbcarioca]

I'd nominate adding Alan Turing to your list. Not only did he have a clear vision of computers and machine language before either even existed, but because of his historical context he was arguably responsible for altering the outcome of WWII.

Another might be Steve Jobs.

Like you I'm fascinated that there seems to be a correlation between "mild" personality/neurodevelopmental disorders and transcendent intellect.

Actually I do not think of it as "transcendent intellect' although that is perhaps usual with such people, but as an amazing power of concentration coupled with an obsession for knowledge. That, I think, is similar but not exactly the same. This topic has been deeply studied, and I have read a fair amount of it in times past (through a largely unapplied MA in abnormal psychology). As Tesla investors I do think this is a very important aspect of Elon and a couple of others at Tesla.

Without doubt this can spawn FUD from 'normals'. We must know the difference between the potential debilitating elements and those that help enable the breakthroughs. That, I think, is never as easy as it is to describe.

 

[JimS]

This post is prima facie evidence that the nearly ten year history for @adiggs carries with it an unusually clear understanding of our world.
I nominate this post for Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit

To add perspective I suggest anybody seeking to disqualify Elon Musk might check biographies of Henry Ford, Thomas Edison, Albert Einstein or many other outsized contributors to human advances. It might help to check W A Mozart, as well. With an tiny amount of insight we see that great accomplishments are almost (I say almost only because I am not positive it is actually 'all') never made by well-balanced socially adept people. That does not apply to only men. Marie Curie, Ada Lovelace and Rosalind Franklin come to mind. Without these flawed women we'd have waited longer to have understanding of things such as radioactivity, programming and DNA.

From ancient times great accomplishments-lishmenst have come from flawed people.
Now we have Elon Musk who stands in clear harmony with the great accomplishments of human history. Were he not serious flawed would he have had the ability to develop 'impossible' things?

I “liked” and “loved” your post, but I gave it a “helpful” just to knock the “disagree” off the podium.

Next mission: learn how to manipulate TSLA share price, (UP!)