Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lessmog]

The SEC is there to protect everyone who is participating in the securities market, not just people that buy and hold.

People who bought during the run-up based on false claims of going private at a big premium on the current price would be harmed by the false claims, that's who the SEC is looking to protect here. If you bought at $379 and could have bought at $319, you should be going after compensation as well.

Well, the reverse is also true: Those who prematurely sold because of actions by SEC (decode the acronym how you will) can also claim to have been hurt by those. Suffice it to behold the subsequent share price development.

QED

Fox in henhouse.

 

[Lessmog]

I don't think that short-sellers would be compensated in this scheme, pretty certain it would be limited to people who bought during the chaotic price movements and before clarification of the claims resulted in a big drop in the stock price.

The distribution would be extremely complex though regardless, it would be onerous just to prove that you bought during this run-up and missed out on more gains or lost money if you sold when the stock price declined.

Wow. Well, in that case perhaps SEC should not have promised the Judge to fix it quick. Eh?
Maybe even return the ill-gotten money from those fleeced?
As it turn out however, Musk himself compensated Tesla by buying stock for an equivalent amount, which has expanded bigly since.

But the moral wrong pervails, as it has not yet been righted. We are still waiting. So is the Judge.

 

[generalenthu]

I have not gone far enough back to be congratulated for consistency, but just deleted some two dozen posts that were completely irrelevant to the topic of this thread and polite conversation; posts that also were in direct contravention to Moderators’ instructions.

Thanks, I'd much rather discuss inflation, fed actions, and progress of the Ukraine situation, than Hitler memes.

Even then one of those might be off topic. Thanks to @The Accountant to gently try and steer us back on course.

 

[SN_8]

Surprised we didn't see a green day on Friday with all this buying pressure.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1495085972744138752

 

[jbcarioca]

I'll see if I can find that video.
I believe:
. .when an OEM sells parts to a Dealership, the OEM records the sale in revenues.
. .when Tesla sells parts to customers, Tesla records the sale in revenues.
. . the difference is that Tesla likely makes more margin on their parts as they don't have to share the mark-up with a dealer.

paging @jbcarioca

As usual you're correct mostly.
OEM practice varies slightly depending on the model year, equipment specification, options etc. Generally OEM margins on parts are 25-50% for garden variety recent vintage high volume maintenance items and scale up from there for older/lower volume/specialty vehicle routine parts. Ask a general rule OEMs do not make these parts, they're typically third party parts labeled as OEM ones. They recognize sale typically when dealer order has been fulfilled (i.e. on part shipment).
Tesla sells parts direct to end customers when Tesla installs the part, or when body shop accepts a part on behalf of the end Tesla customer. Recently Tesla has allowed some body shops to hold some inventory. I do not know how that is treated, although I suspect they remain Tesla property until assumed to a specific vin, thus would be the same treatment.
A couple colleagues of mine with a material interest in the subject have compared a handful of part prices which were in common with another OEM car. Believe it or not there are a few, primarily with pre-refresh models S and X. The Tesla prices have been lower than those of Mercedes Benz dealer prices. I suspect Tesl parts prices may be less marked-up than OEM. Admittedly there is not any substantial evidence either way of which I am aware.

 

[Lessmog]

Yeow! Looks like a good weekend to skip a few 10's of pages again. See ya all monday night.

Haha, yeah that might be after the w-r.

 

[hobbes]

Something to lighten the mood - S Plaid vs. Taycan vs. Lucid Air

 

[H Mak]

Most On Wall Street Can't Comprehend What Tesla Has Managed To Pull Off

I posted these graphs several weeks ago demonstrating Tesla's impressive 5 year Operating Margin % Growth.

View attachment 771290

As I delved into the GM and Ford 10Ks, I realized that the Tesla story was much more impressive than my graphs had conveyed.
GM & Ford's Operating Margin gains have come mainly from their financing arms (see boxes in yellow).
When you isolate the Auto Operating Margins, GM's margins over the past 3 years have been flat in the 3%-4% range while Ford has not made money on its auto business.

View attachment 771291

Meanwhile, Tesla OpInc Margin in 2021 was 13% for Auto. The number is likely higher than 13% as I did not allocate any SG&A costs to Energy.
Note: The Services revenues and costs are included in Auto.

Some additional facts & thoughts to compliment these findings:

• Tesla achieved the 13% margin in 2021 with slightly under 1m deliveries while GM delivered 6m and Ford 4m.
• Having higher OpInc margins with fewer deliveries indicates that Tesla's business is less complex, more streamlined with a lean operating structure.
• The 13% for Tesla in 2021 was for the full year. Tesla achieved Auto Operating Margins of 16.5% in both Q3 and Q4. I expect to see at least 18% for Tesla in 2022.
• These operating margins help to understand the decision to focus on Model 3/Y for 2022 and delay the Semi and CT . . .don't screw up the money printing machine !!
• Model 3 & Y 2021 price increases surfacing in 2022 with continued cost reductions will further improve margins despite the Berlin/Austin ramps.
• GM/Ford and other OEMs will see increasing Operating Margin pressures as they pivot from ICE to EV and when their Financing Margins come back down.
• When supply issues subside, I expect Tesla Energy to return to Operating Income profitability . . .I expect it to be this year.

Finally, that is the kind of post I'm on this forum for. Thankyou.

 

[The Accountant]

Strong Shanghai Exports Continue in February:
Tesla is again quickly loading up the Luchao Port staging lot. Awaiting ships.
Thanks to Wu Wa for drone video.

 

[Doit]

I have followed investor thread occasionally since 2014 and it has always been very harsh to everyone who isn’t 100% pro TSLA and Musk. People say that they don’t want echo chamber but in practice they want. Sure, some critics are trolling but not all.

Confirmation bias is harmful, yet people seek it, because insecurity is uncomfortable.

I'm 100% sure anyone can criticize Tesla and Musk at will as long as it's valid and relevant and such criticism will be well received here.

 

[Doit]

I've been in Tesla since $30/sh. I could care less about the daily/weekly/monthly share price swings. I'm not aware of anyone on this forum trying to silence me. As an investor, ant to the investor discussions we are engaged with I think you are completely wrong. Elon is trying to change society by introducing completely new technologies such as electric cars, carbon replacement with alternative energy sources and storage, autonomous self-driving vehicles. To do this will require more than developing and offering the best, proven technologies, but equally difficult is to convince people to leave what they know and make an (expensive) investment in completely (to them) novel technologies. This is true of individuals, municipalities, local and federal goverments. Winning hearts and minds. I don't need Elon's views to be in allignment with mine. I have no idea what the personal political views of any of the leaders of the companies I invest in are. Unless, like Musk, they are constantly tweeted. Then we all know.

Are you seriously saying in our polarized political times, that Elon's tweets, especially the latest have not damaged the mission, and are not a threat to investors moving forward? I and other posters are not attributing the current share price to his tweets--you're either willfully misunderstanding or making a false position. I and others are saying that people are not buying Tesla cars, solar roofs, etc and will wait for other offerings so that they can avoid supporting Elon Musk's company. Or, keep buying ICE cars. The success of Tesla as a company, and the mission are being harmed. What will the long-term impact be of the latest tweet on the success of Giga-Berlin? Germany is a pretty important market. Such tweets are making it easy for the legions of FUD makers to do their dirty work. The job Elon is trying to do is difficult enough without playing into the hands of the entrenched powers ranged against him.

Just want to say that buyers of automobiles (or anything) are more complex AND simple simultaneously than you've assigned here, and I would suggest you or anyone, at minimum, restrain from drawing a conclusion about the effects of Musk's tweets, particularly from expanding your conclusion to the lofty height of "mission". I, for one, just have fun witnessing all this happening, while hodling my $TSLA shares.

 

[Discoducky]

Most On Wall Street Can't Comprehend What Tesla Has Managed To Pull Off

I posted these graphs several weeks ago demonstrating Tesla's impressive 5 year Operating Margin % Growth.

View attachment 771290

As I delved into the GM and Ford 10Ks, I realized that the Tesla story was much more impressive than my graphs had conveyed.
GM & Ford's Operating Margin gains have come mainly from their financing arms (see boxes in yellow).
When you isolate the Auto Operating Margins, GM's margins over the past 3 years have been flat in the 3%-4% range while Ford has not made money on its auto business.

View attachment 771291

Meanwhile, Tesla OpInc Margin in 2021 was 13% for Auto. The number is likely higher than 13% as I did not allocate any SG&A costs to Energy.
Note: The Services revenues and costs are included in Auto.

Some additional facts & thoughts to compliment these findings:

• Tesla achieved the 13% margin in 2021 with slightly under 1m deliveries while GM delivered 6m and Ford 4m.
• Having higher OpInc margins with fewer deliveries indicates that Tesla's business is less complex, more streamlined with a lean operating structure.
• The 13% for Tesla in 2021 was for the full year. Tesla achieved Auto Operating Margins of 16.5% in both Q3 and Q4. I expect to see at least 18% for Tesla in 2022.
• These operating margins help to understand the decision to focus on Model 3/Y for 2022 and delay the Semi and CT . . .don't screw up the money printing machine !!
• Model 3 & Y 2021 price increases surfacing in 2022 with continued cost reductions will further improve margins despite the Berlin/Austin ramps.
• GM/Ford and other OEMs will see increasing Operating Margin pressures as they pivot from ICE to EV and when their Financing Margins come back down.
• When supply issues subside, I expect Tesla Energy to return to Operating Income profitability . . .I expect it to be this year.

Another wonderful post, thank you!

I'd add that Ford is deep into the woods for money as they are 'spending' like crazy as they have seen profits drop like a rock since 2016 (well before the pandemic, so they can't finger point there) on their core business (trucks) where GM is largely flat by comparison. BMW is in a much worse position as they have now gone negative the last 2 quarters as Tesla is taking all their market share from the highest profit vehicles. I don't think they can stay negative for more than 2 to 3 more quarters before selling off assets/brands like MINI or Rolls Royce.

It is a sight to behold to watch this unfold. Imagine when Tesla can saturate the US market with Model Y's and CT's. In other words, no/very short wait times, what does that look like for competition?

Assume Fremont and Austin would just produce for the US this year as Shanghai and Berlin (hopefully soon) ramp up.

As a side note: I live on the Eastside of the Seattle area and in 2020 there was easily 1 out of every 10 cars on surface streets during commute hours (yes, I count, can't help it). Just recently it is closer to 3 out of every 10 taking the kids to school and picking them up. It is stunning, many of these are X's as well. I know several tech friends who are waiting on deliveries as well. I'd guess that by this time next year we'll be over 4 out of 10 assuming Berlin ramps soon.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Strong Shanghai Exports Continue in February:
Tesla is again quickly loading up the Luchao Port staging lot. Awaiting ships.
Thanks to Wu Wa for drone video.

I counted 6,755 Teslas

 

[insaneoctane]

Pretty sure many participants here predicted this…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494927200562286595

 

[insaneoctane]

Most On Wall Street Can't Comprehend What Tesla Has Managed To Pull Off

I posted these graphs several weeks ago demonstrating Tesla's impressive 5 year Operating Margin % Growth.

View attachment 771290

As I delved into the GM and Ford 10Ks, I realized that the Tesla story was much more impressive than my graphs had conveyed.
GM & Ford's Operating Margin gains have come mainly from their financing arms (see boxes in yellow).
When you isolate the Auto Operating Margins, GM's margins over the past 3 years have been flat in the 3%-4% range while Ford has not made money on its auto business.

View attachment 771291

Meanwhile, Tesla OpInc Margin in 2021 was 13% for Auto. The number is likely higher than 13% as I did not allocate any SG&A costs to Energy.
Note: The Services revenues and costs are included in Auto.

Some additional facts & thoughts to compliment these findings:

• Tesla achieved the 13% margin in 2021 with slightly under 1m deliveries while GM delivered 6m and Ford 4m.
• Having higher OpInc margins with fewer deliveries indicates that Tesla's business is less complex, more streamlined with a lean operating structure.
• The 13% for Tesla in 2021 was for the full year. Tesla achieved Auto Operating Margins of 16.5% in both Q3 and Q4. I expect to see at least 18% for Tesla in 2022.
• These operating margins help to understand the decision to focus on Model 3/Y for 2022 and delay the Semi and CT . . .don't screw up the money printing machine !!
• Model 3 & Y 2021 price increases surfacing in 2022 with continued cost reductions will further improve margins despite the Berlin/Austin ramps.
• GM/Ford and other OEMs will see increasing Operating Margin pressures as they pivot from ICE to EV and when their Financing Margins come back down.
• When supply issues subside, I expect Tesla Energy to return to Operating Income profitability . . .I expect it to be this year.

36% and 48%….How? Seriously, hasn't money been cheap forever now?

 

[Singuy]

Pretty sure many participants here predicted this…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494927200562286595

What irks me about these headline or what Ford/Gm is trying to say is "all you need is to make EVs and be a trillion dollar company". This is what happens when Lucid and Rivian are valued higher. Everyone completely ignore the fact that Tesla makes more profit than them making 1/5th the amount of cars. People still ignore Teslas fundamentals as if current valuation came from being a meme stock.

 

[insaneoctane]

Not new, but EM continues to preach...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494835092027445248

 

[insaneoctane]

What irks me about these headline or what Ford/Gm is trying to say is "all you need is to make EVs and be a trillion dollar company". This is what happens when Lucid and Rivian are valued higher. Everyone completely ignore the fact that Tesla makes more profit than them making 1/5th the amount of cars. People still ignore Teslas fundamentals as if current valuation came from being a meme stock.

This is our secret money-printing weapon...Let the fools figure it out eventually. Honestly, I'm FAR more likely to invest in EV-only Ford spinoff than current Ford...But I still would rather add to my Tesla position vs gamble that too much of the incompetent DNA remains.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Pretty sure many participants here predicted this…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494927200562286595

Isn’t that going to crash F on Tuesday?

 

[Discoducky]

Pretty sure many participants here predicted this…

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494927200562286595

Imagine you are at the helm of once one of the greatest car companies in the world and then you decide to have a big reveal event for the vehicle that is going to save your company. A car so innovative, so forward thinking, so efficient that it is a true vision of tomorrow. Amazing new technology to update the software of the car without wires!!! Data traveling through the air! At neck breaking speeds to beat down the competition!

But, then you forget to remove the huge analog antenna (queue the sad Price is Right horn)

I really do hope it does well, I just don't see how. They are stuck in the past, anchored down by sunk costs and unfortunate...analog antennas. I hope they can see the light and remove the giant mechanical button from the Mach e screen and maybe think twice about selling 'splash and dash' (Mach-eau GT; yeah, this is a real product Ford sells)