Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

My gut tells me that the EV spinoff will likely have a completely different agreement with dealerships that guts the current relationship but still offers limited profit-sharing ties. They don't need nearly as many service centers as there are dealerships today, so not all need to agree to the new terms to support the new EV spinoff. Why don't you think the new spinoff can't dictate new terms? The current business model will not stand up to Tesla's and Ford can't ditch the legacy agreements, but they can devise new ones for a spinoff, no?

What about the unions? Will they be involved in the new EV company? I don't see how they could be. F has nowhere to run, no plan that could succeed.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

When I see Elon tweets like this I always assume no one else at Tesla knows about it either. Then somebody sees it and says boss you can't do it that day you have to babysit little X that day.

Elon: "Yeah I'mma just take us private at $420 blaze it"
The Entire World: *panics*

 

[Christine69420]

If the goal of Tesla insurance is to allow more People into teslas, further advancing the mission - then tesla financing would fit in the same realm. Seems like a no brainer.

Into which Teslas? There is no parking lot with unsold Teslas to sell to these people. All cars gets sold. And there are waiting lists.

Tesla insurance came because many Tesla owners got very high insurance premiums. And some of us still do where Tesla don't offer their insurance.

 

[Snerruc]

What about the unions? Will they be involved in the new EV company? I don't see how they could be. F has nowhere to run, no plan that could succeed.

Ford is building a monster plant outside Memphis. Based on VW’s inability to get Tennessee workers to unionize when VW wanted it, I suspect the UAW will be out of luck. Makes sense for this plant to be part of the spinoff. It is supposed to be a ground up electric car plant.

 

[Discoducky]

It is supposed to be a ground up electric car plant.

But they won't build their new EVs on a from-the ground-up BEV chassis which is the beginning of the end as it will always be less efficient than Tesla.

Example: Mach e is built on a modified chassis that is used for several gas variations

Ford C2 platform - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[BobbyKings]

Isn't there an "All discussions about Ford" thread yet?

Asking for a friend.

 

[ZeApelido]

@Troy rumoring planned density increases in 4680 cells.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1495437651062755337

A ~20% increase in 2 years would be impressive. This would make LFP 4680 pack get near 300 miles which would allow Tesla to utterly dominate the market just in Model 3/Y.

 

[Lessmog]

I didn't leave it the way that TMC does it now, here let me put it in that format and see if you see the difference.

funny/comments/swot7e/oc_science_journalism_in_a_nutshell/

vs

https://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/swot7e

the line with red text is me manually setting a link, the box with the video embedded is the obnoxious thing TMC does that I say is autoplaying in my browser.

edit: on my home PC with Firefox the imbedded video has no volume slider, on my work PC with Chrome it does. Either autoplays as soon as I save the message or refresh the page for any reason.

You did drive home the point rather forcefully. Lucky my earphones were plugged in but not in my ears, so it was just an annoying loud scratching noise as the scroll happened to pass your post. That was quite enough of a sample, even if it may have been funny. My loss then.
Another datapoint.
Firefox/W10

 

[jerry33]

If Ford and GM make so much margin/money from their financing arms, is there potential for Tesla to do so as well?

When there is a financial downturn, financing arms are left with a bunch of keys.

 

[bkp_duke]

@Troy rumoring planned density increases in 4680 cells.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1495437651062755337

A ~20% increase in 2 years would be impressive. This would make LFP 4680 pack get near 300 miles which would allow Tesla to utterly dominate the market just in Model 3/Y.

I thought Elon said no LFP in the 4680 form factor, on the most recent earnings call. Did I mishear that?

EDIT - found the reference, looks like indeed he did say no LFP in 4680 form factor:

EDIT 2 - Tesla wants to limit battery variety - electrive.com
“I see consolidation around a structural nickel-based 4680 package for long-range vehicles, and in addition not necessarily a 4680 format, but some other for iron-based cells,” he said.

 

[jerry33]

The Harley-Davidson plan (as announced) is not encompassed by my understanding of the word "spin-off". It's completely different thing. The new company will still be owned 74% by H-D and HOG shareholders get no separate stake in the EV division. Essentially, H-D is capitalizing their EV division by selling some of it off. Shareholders actually end up with less interest in the EV portion of the business than they do now. But that's considered fair because the division has more cash with which to use for R&D. It's considered that shareholders have traded some of the EV division for cash and the SPAC shareholders have taken over that interest. That's how the deal is described in a nutshell in the press release.

Harley Davidson probably did it this way so as not to alienate their customers. From what I've seen, most people purchase Harleys for the noise--they aren't that fast, they aren't fuel efficient, and the handling leaves a lot to be desiered. About the only thing left is noise. A silent bike from Harley would sour the entire user base.

 

[Lessmog]

Harley Davidson probably did it this way so as not to alienate their customers. From what I've seen, most people purchase Harleys for the noise--they aren't that fast, they aren't fuel efficient, and the handling leaves a lot to be desiered. About the only thing left is noise. A silent bike from Harley would sour the entire user base.

Somewhere I read (maybe here?) that a H-D is a machine for converting gasoline into much noise and needlessly low horsepower.

My auto inspector who is a bit of a bike fan bent himself double at that quip. He said he prefers a 350 cc ride.

 

[EVDRVN]

Into which Teslas? There is no parking lot with unsold Teslas to sell to these people. All cars gets sold. And there are waiting lists.

Tesla insurance came because many Tesla owners got very high insurance premiums. And some of us still do where Tesla don't offer their insurance.

Teslas are expensive to insure because the insurance companies now have claim history and the cars are very costly to repair. My Tesla premium is insane and almost doubled again last year while my other cars didn’t change much at all. Break i costs are high in some areas as we all know.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Somewhere I read (maybe here?) that a H-D is a machine for converting gasoline into much noise and needlessly low horsepower.

My auto inspector who is a bit of a bike fan bent himself double at that quip. He said he prefers a 350 cc ride.

Harley Davidson- the world's most efficient machines at converting gasoline into noise, without the side effect of horsepower!

 

[Congo Line]

When there is a financial downturn, financing arms are left with a bunch of keys.

Yes but with Tesla's having such solid resale value, that may not be such a problem.

 

[MC3OZ]

I thought Elon said no LFP in the 4680 form factor, on the most recent earnings call. Did I mishear that?

EDIT - found the reference, looks like indeed he did say no LFP in 4680 form factor:

EDIT 2 - Tesla wants to limit battery variety - electrive.com
“I see consolidation around a structural nickel-based 4680 package for long-range vehicles, and in addition not necessarily a 4680 format, but some other for iron-based cells,” he said.

Does it really matter if Tesla does or doesn't make LFP cells in 4680 format?

What is important is a target of 3 TWh of in house cell production by 2030, in addition to taking all they can get from external suppliers for the next few years.

I haven't seen the slightest hint of any reduction or delay to that 3 TWh by 2030 target.

 

[Electroman]

The only thing most of them influence me to do is block them. The main contributions of the ladies seem to be taking selfies in their cars, running them through beauty filters, and fishing for compliments.

That "Tesla Joy" character is real clown. She was singing praise of Trevor Milton as visionary and Nikola was the next Tesla, just a week before he was exposed as fraud.

 

[Boomer19]

The Harley-Davidson plan (as announced) is not encompassed by my understanding of the word "spin-off". It's completely different thing. The new company will still be owned 74% by H-D and HOG shareholders get no separate stake in the EV division. Essentially, H-D is capitalizing their EV division by selling some of it off. Shareholders actually end up with less interest in the EV portion of the business than they do now. But that's considered fair because the division has more cash with which to use for R&D. It's considered that shareholders have traded some of the EV division for cash and the SPAC shareholders have taken over that interest. That's how the deal is described in a nutshell in the press release.

In a spin-off, shareholders end up with new shares in the business that is spun-off. That's how I became a shareholder in Leap Wireless at no cost to myself and was able to sell the shares after the spin-off for "free money". Leap Wireless was spun off from Qualcomm. In this transaction, HOG still owns 74% of the EV division and shareholders get nothing except for a smaller share of a re-capitalized EV business. Someone please correct me if I've over-looked something because I have not done a deep dive.

If H-D investors really believed in the potential of the EV division, they would stop this transaction because the money needed to re-capitalize the EV division could be raised through more traditional means and carried as debt thereby leaving HOG shareholders interest in the EV division undiluted. That conclusion is debatable depending upon whether you think the EV division will be profitable enough eventually to pay for the debt, but this is not a spin-off and I don't expect it to have any predictive value as to how a more traditional spin-off by Ford of their EV division would go down if they actually decide to do such a radical thing.

so your qualcomm share price didn’t drop by the relative value of leap wireless on the ex date of the spin-off?

generally speaking, corporate actions are fundamentally equity-neutral events. the market obviously decides the fair value of the two (in this case) either after the announcement, or after mkt open on ex-date.

but in your scenario if leap wireless didn’t start trading until after the spin-off, the expectation is that qualcomm shares drop by roughly the amount of the value of the leap shares. of course, like i said, once trading starts, the arbitrage is absorbed/unwound.
i’m not sure how long ago that was or if you remember…but i’d be interested to hear. your qualcomm stories have been a good lesson.

 

[bkp_duke]

Does it really matter if Tesla does or doesn't make LFP cells in 4680 format?

What is important is a target of 3 TWh of in house cell production by 2030, in addition to taking all they can get from external suppliers for the next few years.

I haven't seen the slightest hint of any reduction or delay to that 3 TWh by 2030 target.

Details matter. LFP is a very different chemistry. And while 4680 in general is just a "form factor", Tesla has optimized their lines that produce 4680 cells for one chemistry currently (per Elon), and that is nickel containing, not LFP.


LFP is fantastic, I'm not dissing that at all. People just should not expect Tesla's 4680 production to be cranking out different kinds of chemistry cells.

 

[Boomer19]

@Troy rumoring planned density increases in 4680 cells.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1495437651062755337

A ~20% increase in 2 years would be impressive. This would make LFP 4680 pack get near 300 miles which would allow Tesla to utterly dominate the market just in Model 3/Y.

the same guy that questions teslas ability to increase factory density