Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jkirkwood001]

I'm trying to tabulate final 2021 numbers for model sales to update my September projection (my sample acct at MarkLines has lapsed). In the meantime, I found this.

TMC seems to debate endlessly about if and when GM and / or Ford will drop the ball on EV, but I think we sometimes overlook Hyundai. Autocar indicates that Hyundai has just passed both Nissan and Ford to become global no.4. Globally, Hyundai sells more vehicles than either Ford or GM. I think Hyundai may be even more compelling (healthy) competition than VW considering tech, batteries, distribution:

Anecdotally, (finally!) my brother just became the second EV owner in my family when he bought an Ioniq 5. It's a pretty good car, even in Sandy's opinion, and costs - in Canada - roughly $20 K less than a comparable Model Y (AWD, 75+ KWh battery). Yes, we've noted their issue with pouch battery packs, but the software seems to put strict limits on charging rate accounting for the ambient temperature.

Time will tell.

 

[WADan]

Tesla should make this. I want one!

Flying Cabs Steal Thunder at Airshow as Clean Future Beckons

Electric flying taxis took center stage at the Singapore Airshow this week as pressure to cut emissions and rebound from the pandemic leads airlines to invest in short, battery-powered hops to spur future growth.

www.bloomberg.com

It should be cheaper than a X/S, right (no need for wheels)?

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

This is true, I've owned seven of them in my lifetime. Now I ride a Goldwing DCT and it's much more efficient at converting gas into horsepower. Plus it pulls like a Tesla!

I am dreaming of a Tesla powered Goldwing !

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Tesla should make this. I want one!

Flying Cabs Steal Thunder at Airshow as Clean Future Beckons

Electric flying taxis took center stage at the Singapore Airshow this week as pressure to cut emissions and rebound from the pandemic leads airlines to invest in short, battery-powered hops to spur future growth.

www.bloomberg.com

It should be cheaper than a X/S, right (no need for wheels)?

My favourite is $LILM Technically very innovative, simple robust mechanism, quiet and safe. Looks great too ! Looks most like a Tesla product.

 

[Prunesquallor]

​

cars.com, Consumer Reports... I'm so confused​

​

TESLA MODEL Y NAMED CARS.COM'S BEST ELECTRIC VEHICLE OF 2022​

The quality and quantity of competitive vehicles poised to enter the EV space warrants expert scrutiny and independent comparison, and that's what we do best at Cars.com," said Joe Wiesenfelder, executive editor and head of EV insights for Cars.com. "Tesla is an electric car innovator, and the Model Y reflects that leadership with its efficiency, charging capability, range and options. It checks a lot of boxes for consumers who have been considering making the jump to an EV."

https://investor.cars.com/news/news-releases/news-details/2022/TESLA-MODEL-Y-NAMED-CARS.COMS-BEST-ELECTRIC-VEHICLE-OF-2022/default.aspx#:~:text=TESLA%20MODEL%20Y%20NAMED%20CARS.COM'S%20BEST%20ELECTRIC%20VEHICLE%20OF%202022,-February%2C%2021%2C%202022&text=CHICAGO%2C%20Feb.%2021%2C%202022,its%20Best%20Of%20awards%20program.

 

[MC3OZ]

I disagree only because we know that cell to pack is already being done by CATL with prismatic and BYD with Blade. There si no inherent reason that Tesla would adopt cylindrical 4680 in preference to those, especially when Cybertruck, Semi, Model Y, more Model Y and others can and will use high nickel for Performance and other such applications. Battery day showed us.

Obviously they might produce any new chemistry in 4680 form factor. High volume, though, does not give evidence of that.

I'm merely suggesting keeping an open mind on chemistries and form factors.

Rough maths - which might be wrong.

20 million EVs x 75 kWh = 1.5 TWh
1/2 million semis x 1 MWh = .5 TWh

Total - 2 TWh

So battery day possibly includes making some cells for energy storage, very unlikely that they would be high nickel.

While Battery Day didn't tell us everything, it did tell us a lot, and there are many options for filling in the blanks, some way more exciting than others.

 

[ggr]

Mod:

I moved 3 posts to their own thread: Impact of Russia/Ukraine on Tesla (posts moved out of main thread)

I will point out that these posts violated @AudubonB's directive from yesterday. To some extent, though, these posts tried to be good and discuss the relevance to Tesla. Any further posts in this Round Table thread, whether well-intentioned or not, will be treated harshly. Take them to that new thread. And note, please, the thread's title. Anything political but irrelevant to Tesla is OT even in that other thread, and will be deleted.

In case you haven't noticed, we moderators are getting quite tired of cleaning up messes. I for one refuse to go to the trouble of moving messages that already should have been somewhere else; it's significantly more effort than just deleting them. And, by deleting them, I am intentionally throwing away whatever effort you put into them. If you want your effort preserved for posterity, put it in the right place the first time.

I hope this is clear. No discussion here. No jokes about it.
--ggr

 

[Discoducky]

It's hard to believe how high this number is already. I'd think that this is an overall positive for Tesla as they are able to be much more agile than legacy.

Automotive News: The latest numbers on the automotive microchip shortage.

The latest numbers on the microchip shortage: Pace of chip-related cuts slows

After weeks of sharp rises, the pace of global vehicle production cuts stemming from the microchip shortage slowed down a bit.

www.autonews.com

"AFS said about 577,900 vehicles have been removed from production plans at assembly plants worldwide so far this year, up from about 527,400 one week earlier. While that means an additional 50,500 vehicles have disappeared from factory production schedules, it represents a moderation from the 100,000 cuts that automakers made in each of the two previous weeks."

 

[navguy12]

I'm trying to tabulate final 2021 numbers for model sales to update my September projection (my sample acct at MarkLines has lapsed). In the meantime, I found this.

TMC seems to debate endlessly about if and when GM and / or Ford will drop the ball on EV, but I think we sometimes overlook Hyundai. Autocar indicates that Hyundai has just passed both Nissan and Ford to become global no.4. Globally, Hyundai sells more vehicles than either Ford or GM. I think Hyundai may be even more compelling (healthy) competition than VW considering tech, batteries, distribution:

View attachment 772124

Anecdotally, (finally!) my brother just became the second EV owner in my family when he bought an Ioniq 5. It's a pretty good car, even in Sandy's opinion, and costs - in Canada - roughly $20 K less than a comparable Model Y (AWD, 75+ KWh battery). Yes, we've noted their issue with pouch battery packs, but the software seems to put strict limits on charging rate accounting for the ambient temperature.

Time will tell.

Just a heads up (my wife drives a Hyundai Kona EV):

All Hyundai EVs now have a blue “non conductive“ coolant that must be swapped out every 36 months as part of the recommended maintenance (a subject matter expert on non conductive coolants can expand on the physics of why the fluid slowly becomes conductive over time and thus needs replacement).

That service, in Canada, is over $1,000 as there is not yet a competitor to produce the coolant at a more reasonable price. (14 litres @ $60 a litre plus labour).

 

[RobDickinson]

Troy saying Shanghai made 68,117 cars in January, thats some going (obv Feb will be lower)

 

[Tyler34]

Mentioning the reason why the futures have gone up - a positive development on the diplomatic front in the Russia-Ukraine situation - is no problem at all and will definitely not lead to a ban. Why? Because a big move in the futures is relevant to TSLA, and therefore also the reason for that move.

The problematic posts are the ones that usually follow:

- "We’ve seen this before, Putin cannot be trusted.”
- “I understand why Putin thinks Ukraine should fall under Russian influence. They share historical ties, which go back to 1373, when Pjotr…”
- “Ukraine also has links to the west and should be allowed to join NATO and the EU to protect it from the dictator that resides in the Kremlin.”
- “The EU cannot handle the membership of a corrupt nation like Ukraine, which is a bottomless pit for any economic aid.”
- “The EU is a failed experiment, where bureaucrats rule. The British left for a reason and you can see how Switzerland and Norway are thriving.”
- “Brexit has proven to be a disaster for the British economy. There's a huge shortage of truck drivers after the East Europeans went back home.”
- "Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera."

Usually the relevance to Tesla/TSLA quickly goes down to zero. We’ve seen this kind of derailing so often now, despite of many warnings, that higher up the mod ladder it has been decided that it needs to stop. I agree.

Mod:

I moved 3 posts to their own thread: Impact of Russia/Ukraine on Tesla (posts moved out of main thread)

I will point out that these posts violated @AudubonB's directive from yesterday. To some extent, though, these posts tried to be good and discuss the relevance to Tesla. Any further posts in this Round Table thread, whether well-intentioned or not, will be treated harshly. Take them to that new thread. And note, please, the thread's title. Anything political but irrelevant to Tesla is OT even in that other thread, and will be deleted.

In case you haven't noticed, we moderators are getting quite tired of cleaning up messes. I for one refuse to go to the trouble of moving messages that already should have been somewhere else; it's significantly more effort than just deleting them. And, by deleting them, I am intentionally throwing away whatever effort you put into them. If you want your effort preserved for posterity, put it in the right place the first time.

I hope this is clear. No discussion here. No jokes about it.
--ggr

Sorry, for bringing it up, I misunderstood this mod note from today. Won't happen again

 

[StealthP3D]

Based on the 762k from VW (sold BEV 452k and PHEV 309k in 2021), the report counts PHEVs and BEVs.

I heard Ford and GM will start counting all their cars and trucks equipped with block heaters for severe winter weather as Plug-in Electric Vehicles starting this year to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. According to GM, an electrical block heater assists the transition to sustainable energy and prevents extended warm-up idling in winter before driving off. They are applying for clarification that this will qualify as a Plug-in Hybrid under the proposed Federal Tax Credits. This will assist them in achieving their goal of 50% electric vehicles by 2030.

/s

 

[Evoforce]

I am dreaming of a Tesla powered Goldwing !

I'm dreaming of any brand with long range and fast charging.

 

[RobDickinson]

Bikes are compromised for space and weight and battery size limits charge speed for now. Theres no magic bullet here.

 

[Discoducky]

Just a heads up (my wife drives a Hyundai Kona EV):

All Hyundai EVs now have a blue “non conductive“ coolant that must be swapped out every 36 months as part of the recommended maintenance (a subject matter expert on non conductive coolants can expand on the physics of why the fluid slowly becomes conductive over time and thus needs replacement).

That service, in Canada, is over $1,000 as there is not yet a competitor to produce the coolant at a more reasonable price. (14 litres @ $60 a litre plus labour).

Best discussed on the engineering thread, but basically the fluid picks up tiny bits of conductive material from the batteries or other things it touches.

I gave this post a smile as an engineer since this is just Hyundai's way of 'under-engineering' and passing the cost to the customer. I read this as their way of keeping "oil changes" a thing... We know full well that Tesla does NOT do this, but further discussion to the engineering thread please.

 

[Ogre]

I heard Ford and GM will start counting all their cars and trucks equipped with block heaters for severe winter weather as Plug-in Electric Vehicles starting this year to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. According to GM, an electrical block heater assists the transition to sustainable energy and prevents extended warm-up idling in winter before driving off. They are applying for clarification that this will qualify as a Plug-in Hybrid under the proposed Federal Tax Credits. This will assist them in achieving their goal of 50% electric vehicles by 2030.

/s

Every time I hear numbers like this I have to wonder what percentage of vehicle sales (total) will be EV at that point. If there is no demand for ICE vehicles by 2030, this means these guys are planning for their sales to be cut in half at best.

It’s as if Nokia had a goal that 50% of their sales would run on Windows Phone and 50% Symbian by 2015. These guys are planning for a future I don’t think will exist.

 

[Singuy]

Market Upside Down. Used Tesla Costs More Than a New One in China

In China used cars prices went up extremely. As a result, the used Tesla Model Y became more costly than a new one from the factory.

carnewschina.com

 

[RobDickinson]

Every time I hear numbers like this I have to wonder what percentage of vehicle sales (total) will be EV at that point. If there is no demand for ICE vehicles by 2030, this means these guys are planning for their sales to be cut in half at best.

It’s as if Nokia had a goal that 50% of their sales would run on Windows Phone and 50% Symbian by 2015. These guys are planning for a future I don’t think will exist.

This is the great challenge, which caused more than one Car manufacturers CEO to quit.

Right now they get away with charging more for EVs an have EVs with slimmer margins because of subsidies and fines etc.

Soon they will be cheaper to make, own and run. But these companies will still be setup to make 50%+ of fossil vehicles.

Without outside players (Tesla, BYD, Nio, Polestar etc etc) they wouldnt have pressure because they'd all be in the same boat.

In a few years they will have showrooms full of vehicles they cant possibly sell.

 

[Discoducky]

Just got 10.10.2 on my 2017 X with this message which leads me to believe they held the update until validation of the cell stack and just barely made the cutoff.

 

[ggr]

Mod: Pay attention. At least 4 well-known members have been temporarily banned. We all know the markets are down. --ggr